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User Info 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel; entered at 2021-12-27 16:40:28
Posts: 8775
Registered: 2009-02-28 DFW, Tx
I will try my hand at this.

Inflation: This is a complicated issue, because it has been raging for decades and hasn't shown up in prices of goods to a recognizable degree. Goods inflation is a mismatch between money available and demand and goods available. Commodities are priced at the margin, what is paid, for the last unit available. The mismatch between what is produced and what has been demanded has widened, as people won't work or aren't allowed to work. In the meantime, added costs of doing business are sizable. Supply interruptions will make it worse. When will it become necessary, for the Fed to float all debt, as holding long dated securities cease to any sense? It will continue, until the market is capable of producing more than demanded. I am a price buyer. I won't buy, unless I really want the good. As long as money is available, for nothing, I agree.

Democrats: Their nonsense has been advertised as mainstream and the traditional thought labelled as extremist. Nothing is farther from the truth. How many people wake up to the nonsense they are pushing and actually see a Republican that will detour, from the National RNC/DNC uni-party game as the solution, will determine the damage. How many turn off the TV's, which have led America into this totalitarian trap. We won't like the real pain of long-term change, but a system wedded toward more fascist and socialist economics it headed directly away from freedom, at an accelerating pace. Hitler took power overnight. I think the Democrats could lose 50 seats, in the House. Re-apportion alone, should cost the House.

The Fed: The Fed is in a trap. Don't doubt the power of deflation. There is too much debt and raising rates deflates the value of all financial securities. The Fed is more of the ant, on the log on the river. The Fed used short dated paper to operate prior to 2008. There was no market risk, in short dated paper, as it ran off the books, in less than a year. What happens to their mark to market, if rates go up 2% or 3%? They lose their current value and become subject to a run. How can a government dependent on a bank that has been bailing them out, do an about face and bail out the bank? Swap paper is all I can see. Double suicide. The Fed remains pat, until they have to defend their liabilities. the dollar. Then, they could be screwed. They need to send a message to Congress no more stealth stealing. Japan has been here, for 30 years, but they don't have the US trade imbalances. They hold pat until the market forces their hand.

USSC: I'm more worried about their mandate decision, which rests somewhat on the same concept as abortion. Telling me I have to take a jab, but we are going to uphold abortion rights don't even belong, in the same thought pattern. I think they uphold the state laws, while banning outright deprival. There should be a cutoff allowed. Seems Roe was the first trimester. There are a lot of choices available to women prior to conception. There is a lot of time to figure out, if sex caused one, before 3 months. A lot of genocidal people will pay for one. We have filing times for income taxes.

The equity markets? A function of inflation and capitalization rates. The cap rate is 3% to 5% too low. Eventually the law of finance prevails. Stopping inflation slows or stops year to year nominal growth. Markets, in the 1970's didn't do poorly due to a lack of growth, but because the cap rates kept marching upward, to reflect inflation. I recall them changing full employment from 4% to 6%. When finance recognizes the law, we will see a long-term real value top, in the markets, likely decades. The indexes reflect the value, in a declining unit. I'm long metals. for certainty. They may go bear too, but they won't go to zero. I don't know how we don't have a recession.

Supply chain? Even if they start playing catch up, they will remain behind. This is more akin to the disruption of permanently taking out a major oil producer. A bigger danger could be the supply being cut off. China has a new virus shutdown, in a large city.

Business will get it in both holes; How can they not?

Blue hives?: Last one out, turn off the lights. You take away what people need or restrict it; it ceases to exist. Urban and left state bankruptcy is going to be a rising problem, which I suspect is behind the political insanity in DC now. They are forcing the rest of us to join the parade.

Geopolitical trouble: My eyes are on China. Ukraine is a story. I would watch Central Asia.

Maxwell? Maxwell's silver hammer. There is a panic to push pedo into LGBTQXYZHIJK. Mind you, 17 is legal in most states. I'm beginning to wonder if they are lowering the definition good sense.

Biden was finished, before he started. This guy was rigged into office, for a reason. Karl makes a good point that the Republicans do not install a VP. Then, we find the Republican NAZI's, if anything other than agreed stealing occurs. The whole shit show needs to implode with him. I think they make a Biden Manican before they give up the Senate.

Business uncertainty? Depends on which end, of the spectrum, but socialist in power, with their regulation is a big danger to everyone. Wounded do absurd things.

Housing? That is my business. My nephew is working for a publicly traded housing firm and he was telling stories of epic absurdity. I would be a seller, if not for tax consequences and the Fed. Higher prices mean higher taxes, so you need higher rents to stay even. I raised rents on about 1/3 of my inventory. More is coming. I like occupancy, because changing tenants is costly. The Democrats may be trying to eliminate SFR construction and Wall Street is in the game. I'm in a rapidly growing area. Outlying land prices have gone insane. We sold an in-town lot, with a worn-out house and bought up the road, 60 miles, from here. It might be a place to set up camp. should it all come apart, in town. A 2% increase, in mortgage rates, implodes housing and likely the economy as well. There was a 4-year void, in SFR supply, between 2014 and 2018, so there may be a catching up. I think the big question is, how many people die, from the jabs and when do people start having kids again? This could be deep long-term hole, but as long as rates remain low and people keep moving into the area, it moderates, but continues. I have heard Zillow is stuck with a lot of homes right now, which means flippers have aggravated the situation. What is the real supply, once these entities have to stop? They were clearly a motor, in the run up.

Medical? F them. I hope they take a massive bath and the wrapper comes off the government/corporate scam. Big pharma and the scam run right down to Walgreens and CVS. Pure NAZI system and been that way for 50 years. I'm about to the point, it is better to die without them.

Schools? What a national scam. This is a good old boys, elite bullshit the rest of us network. There should be a law these people can't work, in government. 200 years and the world hasn't moved out of New England. I figured this out, a couple of years ago. Name a branch of education a major course of study not geared toward dealing with the government? The really nonsense ones, like female studies have no place, in the private sector. Lawyers, Doctors, teachers, nurses, accountants are largely nothing but government lacky's. It has all been designed to screw us, on the way in and out. Paying to get on the inside might be a good investment, but I doubt many people get there without blowing a few. Might be why DC is so full of deviants.

Trump just might be done. I think his defense of the jabs is going to do him in. But Trump changed a lot of people's perspectives. Trump wanted to reverse course on CV19, but something stopped him. I suspect he was threatened, by his own party and likely corralled by his own executive orders. All the attacks on Trump's CV19 policy, Biden did nothing to change it, keeping Fauci, on the top. I think it reveals who really runs the country, once the reins are passed. People need to wake up to the fact the government never does something for you without doing something to you and they never reverse course. They double down instead. Note the nut Jayapol is egging Biden to operate as a dictator. I think it is time, for the people to break this shit show up.

2021-12-27 16:40:28