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User Info	Uh, That's Not A Conspiracy Theory; entered at 2021-11-03 03:29:21
Neonsignal Posts: 90 Registered: 2021-03-24	@tickerguy I am leaning toward a lot of this effect being reporting bias - bias against reporting as the rollout increases the sheer volume of cases, the system clamping down on reports, and the VAERS reporting backlog. Since I think we have figured out the interpretation of the Moderna lotcodes, I took a snapshot of VAERS data from sept and filtered out only the Moderna entries, and manually cleaned up the lot codes as best I could. Then I plotted the data as a function of lot date code. (year + letter roughly indicating month). The cleaned up file I created is here: https://files.catbox.moe/kah452.csv I plotted two ways. The left hand plot shows a blue point for each lot that contained at least one death, with the number of deaths on the y axis and the sequence of blue points ordered by lot date code on the x axis. The red line shows the corresponding lot date code, you can see roughly the number of lots in each month ramps up and stabilizes. The right hand plot shows the deaths in lots as blue points, with the x axis being the lot date code (month). Both of these plots show a general decrease in the number of reports over time, which could be due to reporting issues. The left plot also shows a clear bi-modal distribution where some lots seem very safe, while others are not. That is suggestive of an intrinsic problem of the sort you are proposing (a stackup issue that is only detectable within the host), or possibly a production problem that produces some lots that are ineffective (perhaps ineffective in both its intended and unintended effects) and the typical lot is generally hazardous. Another interesting observation is that much of the production occurred in advance of the rollout - the rollout started early 2021 (Jan 2021 is "14" in this date code format). The right hand plot shows the situation brought "under control" in lots produced beginning in Feb 2021. Is it possible they saw a signal in VSAFE and quickly "fixed the glitch", leading to those Feb and future lots appearing to get safer? Meanwhile all the volume that was already produced just got used anyway... The fact that all three products seem to have similar curves (I have not made plots for the others but eyeballing them the problems reduce over time) and the fact that J&J is quite different technologically seems to point to either reporting problems or something fundamental about the approach.. for this I am leaning more toward reporting problems. 2021-11-03 03:29:21