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User Info Uh, That's Not A Conspiracy Theory; entered at 2021-11-02 14:51:19
Posts: 6
Registered: 2021-11-02
Here's something I found interesting. I took your Moderna numbers and plotted their actual distribution, i.e., the AE count in a lot versus the number of lots with that AE count.

You can see a plot of it here.

Initially it looks like what you would expect. Most of the lots have a small AE count with a few outliers, your hot lots, way out in the tail. It follows a nice power law that I fit as an exponential.

It seems reasonable at first and then you realize it isn't. Not for a manufactured medicine. This goes back to your point. If the spike proteins were manufactured and delivered directly in the shot there would be tight standards and every lot would be identical.

It's similar to how the manufacturing process of resistors distorts their distribution of accuary according to the printed accuracy, i.e., +/- 0.1%, +/- 1.0%, +/- 5.0%, etc. The most accurate has the expected bell shape. The next accurate has a U shaped distribution with peaks around the +/- 1.0% because the most accurate were measured and taken out of the process to be packaged. And it continues. So the manufacturing process imprints on the product's distribution.

Here we would expect a nominally small number of AE's, say up to 10, and then it would stop entirely. Kind of a step shape.

What we see here looks like the distribution you'd get from an uncontrolled natural process. Most of the lots are around their lower number of AE's, but there is a fairly long tail of the hot lots that should not be there.

It's just another way of looking at the same data but it has the same effect. Something is wrong.
2021-11-02 14:51:19