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|So You Want To Believe The So-Called 'Experts'?; entered at 2021-03-28 19:16:22
It may be that the nurse I talked with and my relative's doctor were thinking of this study, which is about neutralizing antibodies. Such a drop 119 days after the first dose is pathetic:
"While only a preliminary analysis, a new study by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) suggests that the long-term efficacy of Modernas mRNA-1273 vaccine, specifically the neutralizing antibody count, may be less than we were hoping for.
Neutralizing antibodies bind to invading pathogens, like all antibodies do, but they bind in a manner that stops infection. That is why pharmaceutical companies stress neutralizing antibody counts as an essential measure for their vaccines success.
The NEJM study followed a group of 34 patients who had taken both doses of mRNA-1273 and analyzed their antibody counts from the administration of the first dose for 119 days.
Neutralizing antibodies were monitored in subgroups of 18-55 years of age, 56-70, and 71+, as shown below.
A significant determinant of vaccines effectiveness in controlling a pandemic is antibody durationhow long the antibodies last in a persons system. For those 18-55 years old, the majority only show a slight decrease in neutralizing antibodies in the three months following their second vaccine dose. Two of the 34 patients in this age group saw a significant drop in neutralizing antibodies.
However, sustained antibody counts are not the case in the 56-70 and 71+ age groups. In these subsets, the neutralizing antibody counts fall anywhere between 50 and 75 percent. This suggests that in these age groups, the duration of neutralizing antibodies from the Moderna vaccine will be relatively short, potentially less than a year. That is particularly troubling as these are the age groups most affected by severe Covid-19. It may well be that the levels of antibodies after three months, if maintained, are sufficient to protect these age groups, but it is unlikely they will continue to protect if levels fall still further.
It occurs to me that this might mean that young people who take this shot would be at much more risk of ADE than older people, if ADE ends up being a problem.