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User Info We Can Stop Covid In ONE WEEK; entered at 2020-12-18 14:55:30
Tickerguy
Posts: 173189
Registered: 2007-06-26
@Royhobbs --

1. Not accurately, no.

2. Yes but there is no possible way to reconcile that. For instance, it is utterly implausible that all but 5% of flu cases have disappeared -- yet that's what the CDC wants you to believe. Of course if there are no cases there are also no deaths. But, in fact, there are as you and I both know.

The simple reality is that cutting off transmission through "population controls" can work IF (1) you lock the entire nation down, nobody goes in or out and (2) you do it EARLY and then literally lock people in their homes so that NOBODY can transmit out of a household.

But -- it only works if you get it very early because otherwise there are enough chains of transmission that you can't maintain it without letting people go to do things like grocery shop and as soon as you do it gets into ANOTHER house. And once it does you're ****ed as it keeps going. Without being able to immediately get testing results back you're doomed because you can't possibly trace contacts before infection has been transmitted to another "pod" (household); by the time you find it the entire ****ing house has it and has sent it onward to others!

Once you get to where you need "assembly line, centralized" testing you're doomed. It has to be point-of-care and instant-read AND you need the staffing to immediately trace BOTH DIRECTIONS because the odds are high whoever gave it to you is STILL giving it to other people AND EACH OF THEM LIVES IN A HOUSE! You have to cut off BOTH directions and you just can't do it as soon as you have to send anything out anywhere or queue results to "contact tracers"; it takes too long and once the transmission has happened its worthless.

That's why cutting off the vector is the only SANE option. In March we knew how to cut off the health care side but refused. Other than welding people into their houses literally (which China did) there wasn't an option for the household vector.

IF we had cut off the health care vector early it would have still spread but hurt VERY few people. But we simply refused because they were "heroes", never mind that we know ******ned well you have to do that (e.g. TB, etc) or there's no chance of keeping it from raging through everyone. And it did.

Now we've had a way to do it pharmacologically since mid-late summer, but we refuse to use it. And that is the entire key to ANY disease. It is in fact the premise behind vaccination; it is an attempt to cut off the vectors but instead of being focused on specific vectors it's a "spray and pray" method where you need enough coverage to simulate infection getting everyone. Can it work? Sure, if the virus doesn't mutate and the vaccine both works and is safe.

But if you have an Rt of >1.0 in households and the overall Rt is ~1.3 in the "busiest" areas of the country, and you cut off 0.5 by terminating half the household transmission then it immediately dies because Rt goes to 0.8 or less everywhere.

100 cases -> 80
80 -> 64
64 -> 51
51 -> 40
40 -> 32
32 -> 26

Etc.

In two weeks the total number of cases drops in HALF and in two more it's down to 1/4 of the number. Since this method also cuts 80% of the death you wind up with 4% of the fatality you were previously experiencing in short order.

It's over.

Last modified: 2020-12-18 15:06:01 by tickerguy

2020-12-18 14:55:30