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2020-10-01 08:51 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 855 references Ignore this thread
Gonna Put Up With This?
[Comments enabled]

This is the government's own data folks....

The question is this -- in less than five minutes you will understand the truth, so now will you shove it up your local and state authoritarian jackwads' ass?  Or are you going to consent to being raped of your humanity today, tomorrow and forward?

This is not my computation or set of assumptions, it is the government's own data with regard to whether "Covid" is dangerous or not.  Just the facts folks, just the facts.


It's pretty simple folks.  A bug that you are materially more-likely to survive, if you get itthan your base risk of survival over a given year is absolutely not something to fear or take "special consideration" over.  Remember that you cannot avoid the all-cause risk of death; that is, the mere fact that you're alive forces you to take the bottom figure in risk. But, when it comes to Covid19, you might have T-cell recognition and be immune or you might have had a "silent" infection and be immune.  Further, since we know antibodies often wane quickly you can't easily find out if either is true.

The point is simply this; even in the worst case scenario, since the CDC's numbers assume infection which of course is not certain, you're less likely to die of Covid, if you don't have it right now, than those survival numbers tell you since you might not get it.  But you cannot control the all-cause risk, and it is greater than Covid's risk.

In other words there is exactly zero justification for any sort of broad-based mandate, period.



Incidentally the CDC calculations are full of fraud. They're frauds because errors go both directions yet all of these overstate mortality.  Let's go down the list one at a time:

  • Level of pre-existing immunity.  They claim zero.  This is scientifically known to be false; US sampling has shown 50% pre-existing immunity.  This is enormous because it means suppression occurs at 20%, more or less, of the population that has been infected and not at 70%.  In other words it means the entire US, save a few places, is basically there right here, right now.  Incidentally we knew this was false in February due to forced-inoculation situations where not everyone got ill, but nobody knew why.  Now we know why.  The CDC has been lying about this since February folks.  That sin alone is enough reason to destroy the entire agency and throw every single person who works there out, naked, in the center of I-75 in Northern Michigan during the month of February.

  • R0 = 2.5.  Probably reasonably accurate.  My initial calculation said 3.0.  My back-tested actual results came in around 2.5 months ago, so we'll go with that.

  • IFR = Already in the table.

  • Percent of asymptomatic infections.  They claim 40%.  Current field data says it's approximately 90% with a demographic adjustment.  40% isn't even in the confidence band, by a lot.  In fact the CDC's own data table makes clear their claim is false; right below the scenario table they claim the mean estimated infections to reported cases is 11, which is approximately 10:1 asymptomatic/not-reported to symptomatic/reported.  They document their own lies!

  • Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals.  The CDC claims 75%.  This is laughably overstated.  Viral replication is logarithmic and it is the higher end of that logarithmic expansion that produces the symptoms.  That is, when you become symptomatic you are carrying 10, 100x or even 1000x or more virus than someone who is not symptomatic.  It is wildly improbable that an asymptomatic person is 75% as likely to transmit the virus as someone who is symptomatic; this is simply a function of math.  If you have 1/10th or 1/100th as much viral load in your body there is no way you're 40% as infectious.

But even accepting these falsehoods, including the one the CDC documents itself on its own page as being a lie, there is absolutely nothing to fear from Covid-19 in terms of general public health.  It simply is not overly dangerous when compared with the basic and inescapable risks that come with being alive.

Tell all local, county and state government officials to shove their "mandates" up their ass.  There is zero justification for any of them.  Further, if you're being told you must comply at work -- go on strike with everyone else at your place of employment until the mandates are removed.

**** these people.  Say no, mean it, and do whatever is necessary to enforce it.

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