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User Info The End Of Trump; entered at 2020-06-29 15:13:52
Posts: 188006
Registered: 2007-06-26
@Twainfan2 - Pay attention to the MARGIN in each state for 2016. If it's closer than 10 points you're within 2 election cycles of going the wrong way. If it's closer than 5 it can flip in the NEXT 4-year cycle. WY and SD are both far enough away from that to be reasonable.

TX is not in danger THIS time, but it is NEXT time. Arizona IS in danger this time around and so is NC, GA, FL (of course), MI (of course), WI (of course) and PA (of course).

If you're looking more than 2 cycles out you're crazy as any prediction beyond that distance is going to be buried by confounding factors. Shit, at the rate we're going we could trivially have blow-out inflation, a no-bullshit race war and a real war somewhere all within 8-10 years. In fact the former is EXTREMELY likely and if it occurs radically increases the odds of the other two.

The problem is that if Trump loses Florida, given the number of EVs involved, he's fucked. I cannot come up with any reasonable EV scenario under which he can win if FL goes to the Blue side of the sheet.
2020-06-29 15:13:52