China Is Lying -- Again
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2020-01-23 08:54 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 315 references Ignore this thread
China Is Lying -- Again
[Comments enabled]

Ready to have a spazz yet?

Well, I hope you are to at least a small degree.

China has now locked down at least one and perhaps as many as three cities -- large ones too -- over their latest outbreak of coronavirus.  This has almost-certainly jumped to the United States and the odds that it is contained "over there" in China are nearly zero, given that we've got at least one person hospitalized here.

We don't have an accurate mortality rate for this thing yet.  The one guarantee I can make is that the Chinese are freaking out in that they're locking down travel right in front of the Chinese New Year, which is their traditional travel time and a huge source of tourism revenue.  For them to basically shut down cities and leisure activities, including Macau, into the maw of this period of time means they've got a problem they don't have a handle on and it's worse than they're reporting, perhaps by a lot.

Remember that the Spanish Flu killed somewhere around 10-20% of the people who got it, and about a third of the global population came down with the disease.  This means it took out somewhere around 5% of the global population of humans!

What we do not know yet and there is no accurate reporting on it at this time, is whether the fatalities from this strain are of the "ordinary" sort from a flu virus (that is, the flu ends up resulting in a secondary pneumonia, which then kills you) or whether the nightmare scenario -- where the virus itself can trigger a cytokine storm that kills directly, is implicated.

Keep your nose to the ground on this one folks; if this was a "no big deal; it's a flu" thing the Chinese would not be locking down entire cities.

But they are.

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