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|Get Your Mouth Off His Schwantz; entered at 2019-07-27 15:27:18
CMS is an interesting bunch. They're not true actuaries since they're required, like the CBO, to follow existing legal structures for both taxes and such, NOT what's nearly-certain to happen. In other words if a tax break is to expire in two years they're required to assume it will, even though we know it won't and there's no evidence that it will. If you pull shit like that in the private sector you'll go to jail. IN government it's actually mandated by law.
The problem with their estimates is that it makes assumptions on growth and tax revenue that are entirely unrealistic. These things result in SERIOUS changes over long periods of time, but at this point, with the zero hour just a few years away, it's only good for a projected two more years -- an effective nothing.
That's what exponents DO; they narrow the gap as you get closer to the end between "ridiculously optimistic" and "realistic."
Last modified: 2019-07-27 15:35:43 by tickerguy