What If.....
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-09-13 08:22 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1154 references Ignore this thread
What If.....
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Irma was never even an actual Cat 1 hurricane at Naples?

Does it matter?  Sure it does.  Remember, we were told how Irma was a "hurricane for the record books" and "most intense storm on record."

Of course this is all part of the global warming screamfest -- and expected from such jackasses as Rachel Maddow. 

We rely on real news, not "fake news" and made up bull****, however, when we make decisions that save or take lives.

If NOAA and the NHC have become corrupted then there is little left upon which we can rely.

So with that, I offer this, which Eric Hunsader tweeted:

This shows..... a strong tropical storm.

Note that the eye went directly over that location; it's obvious from the graph.

Hurricane wind speeds are defined not by the highest gust recorded but by the highest 1 minute sustained windspeed.  This was - maybe - a Category 1 hurricane at that point in time.  Marco Island might have gotten a Cat 2 impact.  Maybe.

But even as the approaching storm came into the Keys I didn't see anything that looked like Cat 3 sustained winds.  Gusts over 100kts, yes, those were reported.  But sustained winds at Cat 3 speeds?  Nope.

Just as telling and perhaps more-so are the damage pictures I've seen thus far.  The early "drone survey" images posted to Twitter and elsewhere in the Naples area showed moderate destruction -- of mobile homes.  Folks, mobile homes are destroyed by Cat 2 hurricanes -- reliably.  We're not talking about the roofs ripped off or some damage, we're talking about only pieces being left.  Cat 3s usually leave nothing but kindling when it comes to mobile homes.

Well-built structures start to fail (entirely) at Cat 4.

There's no doubt that Barbuda and Saint Marten got it in the face.  But context matters, as do facts.  The claim of 185mph sustained winds isn't backed up by a sub-900mb surface pressure.  That was simply never recorded and unlike anemometers that are often destroyed in heavy winds barometers are not.

Let me further remind you that 185mph sustained windspeeds are roughly equivalent to an EF-3 tornado.  I've seen the damage field from those; they reliably slab even well-built frame houses.

Was Irma a nasty storm?  Certainly.  It had a large circulation and did a hell of a lot of damage.

But lying for political purposes is not acceptable when it comes to such storms, and it appears that both the NHC and NOAA have done exactly that.  If you are making life-safety decisions you need accurate information, whether it is to choose to evacuate (or not), or if you are attempting to plan government or other organizational responses.  Lies for political purposes that exaggerate the severity of an incoming storm do real economic harm to real people -- they cause them to spend money, close businesses and otherwise disrupt their lives in ways that are not justified given the facts.

Finally, if you want something lighter and non-political (at all) head over to Sarah's blog today -- she's getting ready to put some artwork of hers on the block. A fair bit of it is hanging in our house, and it would look nice in yours!

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