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2023-11-14 08:42 by Karl Denninger
in Monetary , 336 references Ignore this thread
[Comments enabled]

Oh, you have to love the screaming bulls.....

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.


The all items index rose 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a smaller increase than the 3.7-percent increase for the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month change since the period ending in September 2021. The energy index decreased 4.5 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 3.3 percent over the last year.

I have to laugh at the reactions -- up fifty handles on the spoos immediately.

Never mind that the 4% core annualized is still double the alleged "Fed's Goal."

Gasoline was the big one, down 5.3% on the month.  We've all seen that.  There's much less downward in electricity and almost none on the month in diesel (fuel oil); piped gas was up by 0.9%, but on an annualized basis is down significantly.

Does anyone believe that on a 12 month basis food at home is only up 2.1%?  What are you all smoking over there?

I had to shut off CNBC as I was about to vomit at the parade of people talking about how "financing green energy" has become "too expensive."

Heh fools, its not about "financing" anything; its about paying for it right here and now.  This garbage about "just issue more debt" is why we're on the verge of an economic collapse initiating in the government and its financing costs.

Then again the purpose of "financial media" is to sell financial products.  You shouldn't be surprised at that, right?  When have you ever had a Realtor tell you it was a bad time to buy a house, or a car dealer tell you it was a bad time to buy a car?


PS: No, rates are not done here -- but for today, at least, it sure looks like the Stonk Muckit thinks its all happiness and heroin.  Have another shot!  Oh, the IRX (13 week T-bill index) doesn't buy what the jackasses on TeeVee and the SPX pumpers are selling; the inversion in the curve in fact increased, and not by a little!

Go to responses (registration required to post)

Comments on CPI: ROFL!
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Discernment 6 posts, incept 2021-09-27
2023-11-14 09:19:55

Lies to keep the JPY carry trade and cheap global liquidity from collapsing.

They dont realize theyre just making it more painful when it does crash.
Andrew 284 posts, incept 2014-09-24
2023-11-14 09:20:00

Dear Lort.
"The Flation is under control! Dow to the moon!"
I was going to hit the grocery tonight for a few things, I think I'll add a couple extra cans of...something with shelf life.
Beef stew or Spam, something I can't grow in the backyard.
They won't get cheaper.

As I joked a while back, "today's high price may well be tomorrow's bargain."
Nashville 173 posts, incept 2018-02-27
2023-11-14 09:29:15

Remember, I am just the messenger. Tuning into Maria in the AM has become a habit recently in reaction to the absolute trivia presented by most other media as I slurp my caffeine. Today, Donald Luskin made a bold comment. He began by predicting a zero or even negative CPI release and after the release he followed that up by predicting a first Fed cut in March! He said this would NOT be in reaction to recession incoming, but rather a response to early DEFLATION impulses and productivity gains as the economy regains its legs after the COVID crap era. I agree with arguments involving MATH, but I remember also studying imaginary numbers. Luskin seems quite connected and lucid.
Thomasblair 187 posts, incept 2009-04-03
2023-11-14 09:29:39

2.1% my ass

FIVE FUCKING DOLLARS for a jar of Claussen pickle spears yesterday
Tickerguy 200k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-14 09:30:43

The market only cares about whatever numbers are spewed at them.

Your checking account balance, however, could care less about what the SPX trades at. And unless you sell said stocks that number in the checking account doesn't change.

"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Aquapura 4k posts, incept 2012-04-19
2023-11-14 10:05:20

Didn't the BLS or some fed chair famously say that if the consumer couldn't afford steak they'll switch to hamburger and voila No Inflation! That 2.1% print for food at home has to be using some crazy gymnastics like that. After all, the Alpo can says there is real protein in there.
Unwashed 161 posts, incept 2023-06-23
2023-11-14 10:29:52

LOL, on drugs, well wall street is notoriously known for all the cocaine sniffing so no surprise with the market, they must of did 5 exact lines today smiley

My wife just got back from the grocery store complaining an item she paid last week for a $1 is now $1.50, yup looks like only a 2.1% increase smiley
Twiggler 217 posts, incept 2021-02-02
2023-11-14 10:50:54


And unless you sell said stocks that number in the checking account doesn't change.

Yep --- my step-father always taught me investments and assets that are not liquid haven't lost or gained until its realized. I've always looked at my personal economics through that lens.


Beef stew or Spam

Back to college here we come --- I think I lived off SPAM and Dinty Moore Beef Stew and spaghetti.

Reason: format issue
Synopsis 112 posts, incept 2010-02-05
2023-11-14 11:03:58

Heres a screenshot from a table on a CNBC article titled Here is the inflation breakdown for October 2023 in one chart.

It shows inflation for Food at Home is at 2.1%. Im trying to figure up how that works out to 2.1

Literally everything that rolls up under Food at Home in the chart is over 5%????


Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2023-11-14 11:04:16

Then again the purpose of "financial media" is to sell financial products. You shouldn't be surprised at that, right? When have you ever had a Realtor tell you it was a bad time to buy a house, or a car dealer tell you it was a bad time to buy a car?

There was a low-budget movie named Used Cars that came out in 1980. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0081698/

The theme song Used Cars has the perfect lyric for "financial media" realtors, and all the other hucksters. "Seller take care, buyer go to hell."


Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave
Joeh 23 posts, incept 2023-02-10
2023-11-14 11:14:46

The 10 Year Treasury has dropped from 4.96% down to 4.47%. The 6-month yield has fallen from 5.59% to 5.42%. This will go on much longer than any of us can comprehend. Most of us are "irritatingly logical", me included. Yes, inflation is 8-10% based on insurance, food, and other "gotta buy" things. Rates aren't totally driven by logic as we know. In reality, things our country does behind the scenes and to our faces keep the demand for our debt below the real rate of inflation. Hamas / Israel for example. IMO, a big unknown is how much do Russia, China, US, Saudi, EU, Israel, etc. agree behind the scenes? This site and Miss Ann have provided the best insight on navigating World Events. As a result, I have made significant changes the last 15 years thanks to both. I have tried to spread the word with little success.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2023-11-14 11:49:07

The price of beans is up. Bacon is back up. Beef up. Butter up. I wonder what these people eat? Rice? Up signigicantly. I watch prices on base items. There are things I buy in quantity and freeze, when I see a price. I bought 3 bags of coffee the other day, not because they were a bargain, but because of price protection. Sugar? Tea and oatmeal are about my only uses for it, except for an ocassional batch up cookies. I won't buy any for years. Started at $4.59 for 10 pounds. It is over $7.50 now. I remember the 1970's when coffee hit the inflation adjusted price of around $30 a pound for common canned brands.

Gasoline is down, but from where. It is clearly a demand problem, an indication of economic distress and maybe a few more EV's. My electricity has gone down, due to my plan.

The only thing that makes stocks go up is inflation and the fact one group is ending up with the credit with nothing else to buy. That link is going to break. Rates go down ecause the economy is bad, not because it is good. Ebergy too. The fact the market is so rate sensitive has to do with the leverage being employed. This Credit Bubble bulletin is worth reading, as treasuries are sold short and hedged with options to borrow speculative funds. The sudden drop in longer rates is going to blow a fuse somewhere and the hedges blown up.


The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Nathanaldensr 1k posts, incept 2009-12-19
2023-11-14 11:50:20

@Synopsis The only possible explanation for the tiny percentage being correct is that the graphic omits other categories that are less than 2.1%.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2023-11-14 11:50:38

@Joeh, insurance is outrageous. The premium on a church campus we own went from $12K and change to around $22K. Around 2007, the premium was under $4K. Coverage has less than doubled. I found a 1 year reprieve at $13K and change. My HOB is up 50% in 2 years. Auto insurance up 50%.

Stocks are supposed to be income instruments, if held long term. Without inflation, there is a roughly fixed amount of profit and arbitrage, not buy and hold determines the winners. The Fed balance sheet doubled from 2019, thus stocks doubled. Government debt is feeding the pig. They still haven't adjusted to the still doubled risk free rate and. The Federal deficit is feeding inflation of assets, a corporate bonanza. They really believe we will get away with going down the Japanese path. That bird has flown and Japan is fucked.

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Generalee 242 posts, incept 2011-04-30
2023-11-14 11:51:21

Clearly the McDonalds cashiers are doing the math on the food at home. Couldn't make change if you told them to round to nearest dollar. Sheesh. My insurance is up right around 22 percent for the year and nothing is newer or less miles than before. Guess I'm gonna look elsewhere to avoid funding them drag queen storybooks.
Winesorbet 1k posts, incept 2010-08-23
2023-11-14 11:51:35

They have chosen inflation as the course of action to alleviate all debt ills. Will it blow up eventually? Yup
Will you go broke shorting the market in the mean time? Yup
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2023-11-14 11:51:40

The dollar is down 1%. That isn't a sign of strength.

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Gtbseeker 12 posts, incept 2023-01-14
2023-11-14 12:19:21

Yes, it's all crazy talk. My business liability insurance hit me for a clean double this year.

I haven't raised prices on my clients in years. It's time.
Synopsis 112 posts, incept 2010-02-05
2023-11-14 12:34:40

@ nathanaldensr

Yes, you are correct. Here is the detailed table. It looks like eggs are down 22%

Either way, to hell with the BLS!!

Im waiting for the how much does a Thanksgiving meal cost analysis for my official food inflation number.

Heres last years

Ronniemcghee 525 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2023-11-14 13:34:29

I always use photography as a reliable inflation index:

Photographic equipment and supplies +6.8

Photographic equipment(2)(3) +7.0
Raven 16k posts, incept 2017-06-27
2023-11-14 13:50:22

Regular people know and they are volunteering in regular conversation unlike over the years when i had to lead them. They actually get a lot of TF style understanding, once again volunteering it. Yes, it is refreshing.

Perhaps some of our work individually and collectively is paying off...

Too many examples to describe here.

I am getting the strong impression that people are doing various combinations of the following.

They are focusing on the holidays being about family and friends, not consumerism with a general feeling that this might be more difficult to make happen in the near and extended future. This is a real shocker.

A lot of people are stretching to visit and spend time with others with a last time sense of it.

Gift sentiments are trending more towards practical small items and even food or personal things like good clothing or needed housewares.

This crosses all economic levels, very interesting.

There is a huge interest in people enjoying holiday nostalgia movies as part of the holidays, the real classics. The video services are engaging for this. I expect some religious groups to be more focused Spiritually. Staying home or having people over is a big deal.

People also know themselves that this is going to be different than the usual wait 5-10 years for another boom. It informs why some are having fun now as a last chance for a long time or in life, and others are sitting by the sidelines.

Lots of people are unloading RE with knowledge that the window is closing. Curiously when i have told potential purchasers to merely wait it out some are more of the mentality of wanting to be settled somewhere they like with the bad times coming and that it is hard to find nice places commensurate with all ranges of value. It is a concern that things will not be offered for sale for a long time which does have some validity. Those with secure jobs still fear higher interest rates more than too high purchase prices. People are accustomed to living on payments, and are having trouble reconciling waiting for low values and accepting high rates as good. This is a stretch for them to grok.

Christmas sales numbers are going to suck, and the holiday travel contacts are telling me that bookings are way down. Interestingly most people do not realize how much American recreation and tourism industry over the past thirty years has been supported by European pensioners. Foreign pensioners also drive a lot of our desirable retirement areas' RE forming its base. This is not often discussed. Reports to me are seeing both of these finally starting to dry up in a trend. There are a variety of reasons for this none of them interim or good for those who depend upon this subset of consumers.

It is over for a lot of assumptions, and the public increasingly knows it.

Mission Complete
Crossthread 14k posts, incept 2007-09-04
2023-11-14 14:06:16

What @Raven opined above..

MY Local "food bank" has seen a clear DOUBLING of folks visiting..
(no more goodies) for yours truly..

(On the private side) I've mentioned arguments occurring between patrons of such.. (food bank)..

Gas & fuel, are down, though; from WHAT!

I'm suspecting My LandLord cannot afford that service call to fix My heat..

SO.. I'm doing WITHOUT, ATM..

(at least I have a space heater & fireplace)..
I dunno IF I can afford that..

Talk about a Cold Dark Winter..
WE are NOT,, doing thanksgiving dinner, NOR otherwise.. Grinchmas here..

Good luck to everyone..

Everyone of us are ignorant, its just we specialize our ignorance on different subjects.

The only walls that will confine you are the ones that you build yourself
Tm22721 1k posts, incept 2008-01-09
2023-11-14 14:20:11

The Fed has lost control of long rates and after the $1T in remaining repo is exhausted we will see long rates explode and bid to cover go less than 100%. The end of US bonds.

Just as KD predicted for years to happen in 2024 !

The cheeze in the mouse trap is always free.
Tickerguy 200k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-14 14:20:19

The Fed never had control of long rates.

"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
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