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 But Inflation Was Going Away!
4n6 24 posts, incept 2021-09-16
2023-09-14 19:15:39

Earthquake insurance plus 20% 2023 vs 2021,

Homeowner's insurance plus 30% 2023 vs 2021,

Auto insurance plus 38% 2022 vs 2020,

Supplemental health insurance plus 10% each of last 3 years

I've been trying to convince my wife to bail for the last 7-8 years. A lot of inertia after being here 30+ years. Getting closer as she's monitoring the real estate market at our target destinations almost every day.



Margbp 220 posts, incept 2021-12-02
2023-09-14 19:18:14

Grinchmas--- should make all those people who lament the commercialism of Christmas happy.

In July my husband took me to dinner for my birthday. $60. A little authentic hole-in-the wall Italian place. Food good, nothing fancy, average-sized portions. It was tasty but disappointing that's what $60 gets you now.

Two months later for his birthday he decided he wanted to skip the birthday dinner out and grill at home. I bought shrimp & steak on sale. Made a cake. $20.

The experience of eating out wasn't worth an additional $40.


I get that a meal out is more than just the food but this everywhere. We stopped in an Italian market a few days later. I go there every quarter or so. I spend anywhere from $60-80 at a time. Cheaper than a ticket to Italy! This last time I spent $27. Some of the items I usually buy were up 70% since March 2020. I don't know when if ever I'll go back.


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It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his desires depend upon his not understanding it.
~Upton Sinclair slightly paraphrased

Reason: Clarify time period of 70% increase
Lobo 1k posts, incept 2013-12-25
2023-09-14 19:22:10

I listened to a financial advisor doing his song and dance routine earlier this week. He said that inflation was down this year. I said that the RATE of change might be smaller, but it was still positive, and prices were still increasing. He moved to the next slide. He talked about the rule of 72 and how investors could use it to figure out how long it would take for their funds to double. His example used a rate of 6%. I asked where I could be a 6% rate of return. He said the stock market had a long-term average of about 6%. I said the stock market doesn't compound anything. He moved to the next slide.

I could easily see that guy rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic while telling passengers that hitting the iceberg was a temporary glitch, they'd be a bit late getting to New York and the new arrangement would make their trip more enjoyable.

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Village Idiot
Themortgagedude 12k posts, incept 2007-12-17
2023-09-14 20:32:03

Anyone who thinks inflation is going away without restraint in the federal spending is just wrong. Two things are causing inflation. The irrational spending of the federal government and the demand for dollars abroad. And one is causing the other.

You can raise the fed funds rate to 25% and if you run deficits of two trillion you'r still gonna have inflation. On the other hand you could reduce the fed funds rate to 0% and balance the budget and inflation would disappear.

JMTC

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I think its time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that our founding fathers intended for us. Ronald Reagan 1964
Ckaminski 7k posts, incept 2011-04-08
2023-09-14 20:32:33

Local Longhorn restaurant is my personal Guage for how shit is blowing up. Last year at 1830 on a Friday night the place would be packed with a line out the door.

Last Friday and the past couple visits we've been almost the only people in the place not at the bar.

The prices are probably a good 50% higher yoy if I had to guess. They're doomed if shit doesn't change in the next year.
Vernonb 3k posts, incept 2009-06-03
2023-09-14 20:32:59

@Aquapura.

I had 2 60+ feet hemlocks removed that were about 30 feet from front porch in 2016. Was about $1500 but they took it all but stumps.

Then got myself a new roof 3 months later. The guy also helped me with a broken sewer and a water runoff issue.

Of course verizon refused to move the phone line to the ground to prevent damage. Ended up taking it loose from the pole ourselves to lay on the ground temporarily.

I dumped Verizon and their crappy DSL a month later.

Best decision I ever made.

Kind of regret not turning those trees into 15 to 20 feet pieces of wood art though.


The roots had already destroyed the sidewalk on the street and were now heading for the house.

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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Happyapricot 162 posts, incept 2019-07-06
2023-09-15 07:25:19

No way is the inflation going away. Joe thinks the USA is a wealthy country, responsible global warming, and plans to build a solar farm in Angola Africa. as well as forgive the debt of foreign countries to prevent farming! I don't think Joe gets these thoughts on his own. I think they are part of the Democrat agenda. Joe thinks what they tell him to think.
Smokeyblonde13 367 posts, incept 2021-10-29
2023-09-15 07:26:46

Interesting data point regarding inflation ... got new lease offer for apartment. No change from last year. Zero. Exactly same amount.

Proposed taxes and utilities also unchanged.

In an inflationary/stagflationary environment, I find that highly interesting.

Tells me that turning-over a Section 8 apartment is more expensive than a "good" occupant that takes care of minor maintenance issues themselves.

Wonder how widespread this is? Guessing rather large...
Smokeyblonde13 367 posts, incept 2021-10-29
2023-09-15 07:26:58

Quote:
The Free Shit Army and their Ruling Elites are destroying this country. It won't be long before we all join the deadbeats. Their goal is to destroy the American middle class and acquire all its wealth.
Quote:


Go for it! I have precisely jack-shit after taxes! See US and State Goves if you want "my" money.
Doladin 150 posts, incept 2022-01-15
2023-09-15 07:27:11

I've been diligently progressing my career and increasing my salary. I'm no superstar but probably in the 75-85 percentile of Australia.
There is no way that I have been keeping up with inflation. Soon I'll run out of the "easy" gains of advancement and will more or less plateau in income.

It's quite demoralising thinking how i'll allegedly be an above average income earner, but my discretionary spending ability is paltry (assuming I want to own a house and raise a family)

The worst part is that THE SOLUTION IS NOT COMPLEX.
I don't blame any person that hopped on welfare instead of working a dead end job (though they should be taking their newfound free time for self-improvement)

And once again - has your tax office reduced income thresholds to account for any inflationary wage increases? Mine hasn't. In fact, they've removed some temporary allowances.
Smokeyblonde13 367 posts, incept 2021-10-29
2023-09-15 07:27:42

I find it amusing that THE topic of convo on my team, from Zoomer to Boomer is insurance.Off-the-record meeting about this is already scheduled in 2 weeks.
Smokeyblonde13 367 posts, incept 2021-10-29
2023-09-15 07:27:52

I have a DUI from 18 months ago. The extent to which cities/counties are willing to go to if you are indigent is astounding; but if one can pay, the cost is astronimical. >$20k annually.



Ronniemcghee 495 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2023-09-15 07:28:04

@Redjack ~
I would tell you to come to Miramar Beach, FL but KD left this area so not everyone thinks its a good spot ;)

Rollformer 2k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-09-15 07:40:43

If my understanding is correct, there is too much aggregate demand relative to the production capacity of the economy. That demand must be curtailed. The question is whether that happens in a reasonably orderly fashion, by a reduction in government spending, or in a disorderly fashion with interest rates going to the moon.

One would hope we choose option number one.
Smacktle 8k posts, incept 2009-01-20
2023-09-15 10:17:23

@Rollformer is now an optimist?!

Had to take down 2 large pines close to my house because one died and the other needed to go. Big limb overhanging house. Now an oak is dying. The drought has been real in Texas till yesterday. $1375 for the pines, $750 for the oak.

The trucking business is still cooking. Curious to see what happens this Winter. Will this be finally "it"?

Eating out is insane at this point. We only go where there are "deals" or discounted food items. No more fancy food for us.

@Jack_crabb is so old, he preordered the Bible


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Use your Ticker Balls
SAY NO TO SUGAR!

Reason: Jack_crabb is an asshole
Jack_crabb 18k posts, incept 2010-06-25
2023-09-15 10:59:36

There's the @Smacktle we all know and... barely tolerate. smiley

But seriously, it's great to hear from you, Brother.

Edit to Add:
Quote:
Reason: Jack_crabb is an asshole


I'm glad you went out of your way to mention me. I'm also glad I live rent-free in your head. smiley

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor

Inspectrcalahan 817 posts, incept 2021-01-15
2023-09-15 11:11:22

On old houses and old sewer pipe. The manse was built in 49 , cast iron underneath replaced outside with plastic before I bought it. At property line goes into jointed clay pipe , this runs under my neighbors house. Had frequent stoppage , but could usually blow it out with water hose . I eventually bought an electric pressure washer a 100 ft hose. The pressure head will actually pull it through the pipe . It takes all 100 ft to get to where the clog occurs. No big trees there,so a handful of copper sulfate crystals every month ($30/year) ,,seems to have killed whatever roots got into the pipe. Been 18 months ,fingers crossed. The fix was going to be a grinder/lift pump. @ $8k ,,, Maybe Ill just sell and live in a camper at the farm. My bride is almost ready.
Rollformer 2k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-09-15 11:11:56

I am an optimist in n that I am hoping the issue is addressed via reduction in government spending. I do not necessarily think that will be the case.

Regardless, the best case scenario is a controlled depression. The other options are worse.
Mickey 207 posts, incept 2014-05-19
2023-09-15 16:15:00

I receive a restaurant survey each month. It reports trafficc averave ticket, by region and casual, midd and high end.

The report was positive in that traffic this year is down but not as much down as early this year.

It showed average ticket up partly due to inflation but no was to tell if its buying more expensive stuff or prices higher stuff or just, for example fewer or more apps or booze. In any event its not as busy as before.

My area, Deerfield Il, is not quite top end but close enough, but its in an area of high income and net worth, so restaurants do well.

Eg, a nice breakfast omelette is 15-20 in area and if we drive 10 miles away its less than 10. And not busy.

So people can have jaded views depending on where they live.

Took grandson for a burger lunch a couple days before he went to camp. 2 adult burgers , 16.50 each plus tax in a casual place where you order at counter and wait for your number to be called.

On inflation, lets not forget it was muted the last year due to SPR withdrawals, and since end of june, WTIC vs Brent oil is up 33%, and only about 5% showed up in the august CPI. And the disconnectes are allover that report.

The Fed.
400 plus PHDs in economics.

Its quarterly financial report, unaudited, was recently published. Its leverage is infinite, and it admits to unrecorded losses on mortgage backed securities of over a trillion. I am guessing its more, and thats the held to maturity line for banks toxic assets.

So it appears the Fed is running out of runway and its too late to stop. Just keep going till something big breaks. The media has been complicit in all of this.


Sad, but humorous. Some of our friends did not know that I stopped taking the flu vaccine 4 years ago, and not taking the c vaccine. When They do find out they become leery about being near me, when it should be the reverse. But this is all part of the government driving things.

An earlier post here discussed elected members of congress. Lets be blunt. These folks are not the sharpest knives in the drawer. I know a few. Actually appear to be nice, but not good enough to see the problems, and apparently not strong enough personality to question whats going on. I think the word is lemmings. Go with the flow. And the greater population too. Independent thinking is not allowed.
Jc3 576 posts, incept 2020-03-02
2023-09-15 16:17:53

Inflation?
Wifey and I decided over a year ago that doing burgers or "going out to eat" was a stupid move(prices going ballastic!) when a 4 pack of filet's can be had for $40 to $60 and grilled to OUR liking at home.

Car Insurance? Up 38%
Home Insurance? Up 30%
Food? Up too much to track. Wifey is a coupon expert, slams 'em at the checkout with savings(<<learned during decades of 6 children and one income)
Medical? Insanity. Not having to follow anti-trust laws and other laws allows for much abuse.
Life Insurance? A welcome surprise here. Policy via IEEE Group rates, our price has remained constant for 3 years now.
Home Utilities(electric only, we have septic system and water well): set kWh usage records when we had children at home and/or live-in relatives a few times. So far, rates(rural Co-op) have been reasonable in spite of oil/NG spikes. Having an insulated metal roof replacing a shingle roof helped a LOT. No complaints on this item.

Hearing the Argentina tale on the X and following Ferfal since he began writing gives one plenty of warning of where this Feces Show may be(is?) headed.
Live and enjoy life, one day at a time, but plan for VERY hard times.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2023-09-15 17:20:27

@Mickey: I remeber 2008 when crude hit $144 a barrel. Gasoline didn't make $4 a gallon here. Last year, it hit $5. There is another thing that hasn't hit yet. Refinery capacity limitation. The refiners got fat last year. That put a figure on top of inflation and has taken it off so far. Being of the economic variety, I'm not sure it has real effect as spending on credit is what creates inflation. The prices are merely reflections. Who is spending too much credit? DC of course. They take LSD there instead of vitamins, as no one can dump $1 trillion and call it inflation reduction without hallucinating, or more likely LYING.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
K5555 179 posts, incept 2021-04-18
2023-09-15 17:57:38

Lest you were afraid some employers actually learned anything the past few years, worry not.
Quote:
We need to see pain in the economy. We need to remind people that they work for the employer, not the other way around. There's been a systematic change where employees feel the employer is extremely lucky to have them, as opposed to the other way around. It's a dynamic that has to change.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/corpor....

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Fight like you are the third monkey on the ramp to Noah's Ark and it is starting to rain.
Bruceallen123 141 posts, incept 2010-02-12
2023-09-15 23:01:58

I noticed something really odd, almost bizarre, here at McDonald's last Saturday night. Stopped in for a quick coffee and a muffin and, aside from myself and the workers, there wasn't a SINGLE SOUL inside the place. This was around 5:30PM, usually when the dinner rush hour starts. Only one vehicle in the Drive-Thru as I left the joint. I've never seen it that dead. NEVER. It was surreal to say the least.

Local mom/pop ice cream parlour around the corner from me just closed up shop for good. Owners told me their numbers never did return to pre-pandemic levels and with the rising cost of damn near everything, it wasn't economically feasible to continue operating anymore, especially when they were only open 5 months out of the entire year. 25yrs of patronizing this place--gone for good. The only places I see doing any 'real' business around here are the usual 'dollar' stores, Walmart, and (interestingly enough) the liquor store...

I'm sure I'm not the only one who's noticed some really bizarre trends in the retail/food sector lately?
Xqqme 1k posts, incept 2009-01-09
2023-09-15 23:02:18

A little good news (for now)
The Propane Education and Research Council (PERC) tells DTN propane stocks are significantly higher this year over last. Right now, the average wholesale price is under $1 per gallon.

Last year at this time it was around $1.50 per gallon
Generalee 225 posts, incept 2011-04-30
2023-09-15 23:02:43

Inflation is going away. Can't U see? In the last 2 days I've seen 3 large parcels of land (15ac+) and half a dozen established homes go on the market. Hmmm, guess the pinch is starting to catch all them Joe voters now. How's that line go? Oh yeah, Jump you...
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