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 The Consumer Is Strong!
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-12 14:49:56

The Fed isn't going to print anything into that environment @Ihsmta.

IF that's your thesis I hope you ordered this already because you're gonna need it.
Inline

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."

Jesjohn94 1k posts, incept 2019-05-07
2023-09-12 14:59:56

I doubt the stock market will drop much without a trigger and who knows what that might be. People have been trained to buy and hold so not enough are scared and moving to a safe 5% return. Everyone thinks you should double your money every couple of years. Housing isn't crashing as no one locked into a 3% mortgage is moving. Higher interest rates make no difference to credit cards as those rates are already 20% and not really changing. Sales of new cars and phones are most likely to show weakness. Higher rates don't hurt everyone. Anyone with cash savings are doing better.
Edward.fish 602 posts, incept 2021-12-17
2023-09-12 15:00:12

Ihsmta wrote..
I suspect that there will be a fight in CONgress between Dem's (MMT! PRINT!) and Republicans (AUSTERITY!).

@Ihsmta -- I disagree.

Given the propensity, and observed eagerness, of the Republican Party to stab its base in the back and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I anticipate them rolling over... maybe wringing their hands for the TV cameras.
Realist 268 posts, incept 2009-07-14
2023-09-12 15:00:44

Quote:
If you're one of those people who believe that the ramp in your house's "value" over the last three years is in fact "yours" and it "can't and won't" go back down, indeed, if you think the increases since 2003 or so are "yours", or that the insane expansion of multiples in the stock market, again all driven by "gimmes" from Congress buying votes which it can no longer afford to do without them showing up immediately and in greater amount in inflation, will not and cannot come back out you are exactly the same in your mental space as the person who refuses to work for $10/hr because he or she got $600/wk to sit at home and get drunk, or who smashes and grabs out of the store because they are "owed" it.


''It goes up, it goes down. It'll be up again.''


''I've heard this in the past and it hasn't happened.''


''The Fed has everything under control. Don't worry about it.''



These are the responses I get when I try to point out the facts of our current situation.


By the way, banks heavily invested in commercial real estate loans during the low interest rate era. What do you think will happen when some entity actually has to take the losses? Someone or some thing has to eventually take the losses.

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''Whenever law ends, tyranny begins'' -- John Locke, English Philosopher
The United States is a banana republic
Survivors use critical thinking, common sense and intuition
Generalee 225 posts, incept 2011-04-30
2023-09-12 18:08:59

@Realist, who's gonna take the losses? Seeing how the banks skipped their turn in 2008 should man up for the good of the country.
Ihsmta 904 posts, incept 2008-04-10
2023-09-12 18:24:18

KD...yes, MMT is insanity. I do not endorse it nor do I hope they do it. It's simply an option available to the Fed. They've done it before (QE). They'll do it again. If they do it under the coming circumstances, we'll all need lube.

Edward.fish...I said there would be a fight. I didn't say either would win and carry through. Posturing. I'm politically unaffiliated and have no faith in either party.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoi
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-12 18:29:28

No it isn't @Ihsmta.

In the 1950s it was called "yield control" and was viable because we had a 10%+ real growth rate as a result of having literally blown up everyone else's manufacturing capacity.

This last time around we had a trade environment in which basically all in-transit finance was conducted in dollars. Thus if the GLOBAL economy grows at any given point in time whatever is outstanding (which is frequently a month or two due to shipping times and such) in goods is effectively held off the monetary system, and as expansion occurs that looks like an absorption. With Global GDP amounting to close to $100 trillion we're talking about $200-300 billion a year that is effectively "absorbed." That looks permanent but isn't; its just that as long as the economy expands on a global basis it appears that way and that "new" absorption is available each new year. I didn't expect this last attempt would work and that's why it did -- and what I missed that made it possible.

That's gone almost in totality due to the Russia/Ukraine crap and the US (and European to some degree) penchant for throwing sanctions around, which immediately changed attitudes on sitting on a pile of dollars while goods were in transit. Not gonna happen no more!

Realistically unless there's another dynamic that develops that provides such a sequestration buffer they can't do it again.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."

Thelazer 1k posts, incept 2009-05-11
2023-09-12 20:16:37

So, what's stoping anyone from just charging it all up and defaulting.
Or is that the goal here, that's what the gov't is counting on.

Our own government's in debit up to it's ear and maybe it has not "Defaulted" but it sure has inflated it's way to hell. You can't trust anything they say, we know all of it's a lie and don't even mention the health system. So what's left, people don't want to work. Folks don't want to pay $20 a burger, so it's all put on cards.

Let it f'ing burn down is about all I can come up with.
4n6 24 posts, incept 2021-09-16
2023-09-12 21:29:01

Drove to Yosemite for a short trip. Topped off the tank and Chevron(91) was $6.50/gal. Only $5.98/gal. at home. Dinner was at a local brewery and totaled $66 with tax/tip. Just one beer each, 2 burgers (1 w/ slaw, wife's w/sweet potato fries). Beers were pretty good though.
Greenacr 897 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2023-09-12 21:29:08

Gas jumped from $3.34/gal to $3.69 on average here in northern Ohio. With Oil continuing to rise it feels like $4/gal is just around the corner.
Ostriches 320 posts, incept 2009-10-28
2023-09-13 09:48:18

The difference between being lazy and pulling away is a fine line.

As I have gotten older and wiser, some would characterize my current work ethic as "being lazy". But, it has much more to do with a loss of purpose and reason for being, i.e., I will avoid running faster on the wheel for the same, or less, reward if I can.

The worst thing a government can do is disincentive hard work, which is the current state of affairs.

Make things worth my while and my full capacity and I will consider returning in the same fashion.

As it stands, have fun trying to fill my shoes. Sure, you'll find someone to "do the job", but it will be shit.

As a result, "the suck" will continue.

The sole purpose of government is to form policy that motivates people - the lower ends, the middle, and the higher ends - we are currently far from this dynamic now.

So, as much as my nature abhors it - and I keep catching myself going against my principles - I will continue to resign.

I do not like this.
Chemman 415 posts, incept 2021-05-03
2023-09-13 09:48:21

Gas has jumped from $3.69 to $3.99 in the last month in NE AZ. Expect it to exceed $4.00 in the next week or so.
Sharps 159 posts, incept 2008-12-15
2023-09-13 09:48:25

Regular gas is $4.19 here in SW Montana
Latviski 235 posts, incept 2008-02-22
2023-09-13 09:48:30

My business has gone from zero to few low caliber applicants to literally hundreds of (many overqualified) the past few months.
People are running out of plastic and handouts.

As far as housing - I dont think it will crash. Supply va demand, so many locked in to a 3ish % rate unwilling to sell, and the fact were running 10+% inflation a year means they are overvalued but far less than some believe.
Realist 268 posts, incept 2009-07-14
2023-09-13 09:48:35

@Generalee, if the banks don't take the losses, it can be transferred to depositors via bail-ins. If that doesn't work, like if depositors get spooked after the first bank bail-in and they start to withdraw their money, they can try to print their way out of the losses. But in that case, the risk is transferred to the U.S. currency via the foreign exchange markets.

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''Whenever law ends, tyranny begins'' -- John Locke, English Philosopher
The United States is a banana republic
Survivors use critical thinking, common sense and intuition
Ronniemcghee 499 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2023-09-13 09:48:41

Things are at their most dangerous when the realization hits that someone has been blowing smoke up your ass and now you have nothing while they still have something.

Hillary tried that and Biden is trying it again.

I can't figure out what Bidenomics is. Maybe ...

Raven 15k posts, incept 2017-06-27
2023-09-13 09:48:48

Unexpected, Impressive and Appropriate.

Knocked it out of the park with this one.

We can go many places with the implications as the understanding gets closer to the truth.

Just a little further to go...

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Mission Complete

The truth is just too powerful to know. Those who hold the truth suffer more than those who believe the lie. -The Hall of Tears
Smokeyblonde13 369 posts, incept 2021-10-29
2023-09-13 09:48:56

Rant On ... I Fucking LOATH working mothers who want it all RIGHT NOW and demand concessions so they are able to achieve it, regardless if it means others take up THEIR slack.

I was a working mother. But I worked set hours in a menial job with generous time-off so I could prioritize kid things over work. But I shut the F up and learned as much as I could in preparation of the day my kids were older.

That little "thing" is missing nowadays. Now they want the title and the pay and the time-off ad the concessions without showing 1/10th of the abilities expected.

In a perfect world, I would never, EVER hire a mother or a woman in their reproductive years under the age of 40 because their are juvenile, entitled, stupid, and incompetent. Generally speaking, of course.

Rant off.

Doladin 153 posts, incept 2022-01-15
2023-09-13 09:49:00

My company reported nearly 2b profit, wage rises were 4.5%. At least we're mostly still WFH...

Many people definitely found how little value they were to employers, and how stressed they were to increase savings at the end of the month from their stressful labours.

People aren't working entry level jobs because 1) rents and living costs are so high that you don't get ahead doing it. 2) the listings still want experience and crappy time commitments, commutes and jab mandates. 3) many listings seem fake to allow H1B hirings. My wife was applying like crazy for entry level jobs during lockdowns, had just one interview.

On another note - I am carrying large credit card debt... at 0% pa for a couple of years. I brought forward purchases (including tools) and am now tightening the belt. Savings are sitting in a HISA

My favourite local pizzaria and burger shop, both with quality ingredients, have closed down (this was our once a week treat for the wifey who values a food oriented treat). Would you believe you barely get change for 20 AUD if you buy a McDonalds meal here?

Im over 6 figures but I certainly don't feel very rich. They are absolutely killing small business and the middle class, which I think had been the strategy since before lockdowns but it's getting really bad now.

I'm also seeing a constant stream of Africans in my suburb who look fresh off the NGO importation program.

The Australian government doesn't have pet minorities here, but they ensure that politicians, public servants, and pensioners get their COLA! Meanwhile, 3 years of 7% (understated!) inflation, and not a peep of amending income tax thresholds.
Boredfree 1k posts, incept 2021-09-15
2023-09-13 09:49:10

Covid created a sea change for employers and employees that won't be 'fixed' with higher pay.

Covid generated a lot of fear in people. How many employees felt burned by their employers who demanded people adjust to government/corporate changes? You were laid off for six weeks, or forced to be nasaly raped to come into to work.

Americans have been hypnotized to believe hard work equals godliness. Sacrifice your freedom to earn enough to be free...

During covid employees got an unintended reset to their thinking. Your job doesn't have your back, never did. Employers don't give a shit about their employees, just their profits.

The cubicle class spent time with their families, went on adventures together and discovered there is more to life than a paycheck.

There were plenty of folks who were forced by circumstances to cutback on expenses. Whether due to lack of money, or the lack of places to spend, people began to realize working cost money. Not working cost them less.

How much should a person sacrifice to earn a living? How does a person quantify quality of life vs money?

Pointing the finger at employees and saying they're the problem is missing the fact that employers have been taking advantage of American work ethic since the wwII industrial build-up.

During the war people were told that they needed to make sacrifices to win the war. Sacrifice is what employees did. Women went to work. Anyone who wasn't helping the war efforts was vilified.

Work, work, work!

Government and business began squeezing the productive people to do more while making less. Government made bad fiscal decisions while successful businesses were bought and dismantled, laying off employees and selling the more valuable real estate to realize their profits.

Employment has gotten messier and less profitable, taxes eat into what money a person earns, inflation steals the remainder. Why work?

Live to work or work to live?




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The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Kcforreal 74 posts, incept 2021-09-27
2023-09-13 09:49:17

@Winesorbet - In Overland Park, KS, I filled up the truck at a HyVee whose sign indicated a certain price which was reflected on all of their pumps except one at the far end that I randomly chose - the gas was 30 cents cheaper than all the other pumps, which means they raised the price 30 cents overnight and someone 'retired in place' didn't bother to change that pump's prices. At least that's what I surmised. Perhaps they left it like that for their friends and family members to fill their tanks up too before they switched it over.

The point is, yes, the price of gas in my area has gone up and I expect it will continue for a while.

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"Most people are not just comfortable in their ignorance, but hostile to anyone who points it out." - Plato, The Allegory of the Cave
Redjack 2k posts, incept 2018-01-29
2023-09-13 09:57:08

Tappedout

The school my kids go to has seen a massive post vid enrollment increase.

The Iowa ESA's are part of the reason, but most APPLIED BEFORE THEY KNEW THE ESA EXISTED.

We are also, quietly, trialing a homeschool/micro school option. A one room school house like I did in the 80's. Parents are lining up to try it.

And that doesn't count the true homeschoolers. Between the private schools, ESAs, Homeschoolers, and such the local public schools are trying to take the state to federal court to secure their funding.

Interesting times.

Edward.fish 602 posts, incept 2021-12-17
2023-09-13 10:16:30

Thallos wrote..
@Tickerguy wrote: "There is no labor "shortage." There IS a shortage of people willing to work a given job AT THE OFFERED WAGE."

I have to call partial BS on this based on anecdotal evidence. Both of my kids (23 and 19) have applied to DOZENS of positions where they met the criteria required and did not even get interviews. Companies claim a "shortage", but then won't even interview qualified candidates.

The most egregious was for the 23 year old. 3 qualifications: state certification (check), 2 years in the field (check, 3+), 1 year in admin (check, 1.5). She actually got a denial, no interview. The denial letter said they were looking for someone with "more experience".

My guess is that this phenomenon is HR department driven. "We just can't find people". That's BS. You just have no clue how to hire people. When I hire people, I actually pay attention to the posted requirements and interview people.

Thankfully both kids are finally working (internship at college and a 100% commission based job where things are going well in the first month).

@Thallos -- I can confirm that employers seem unserious in hiring now, given the sheer volume of applications you have to push out to get an interview. I maintain that if there really were a crisis of finding enough people, then they would be offering things like training-programs... instead we see bullshit requirements and ghosting and the like.
Dan_e 168 posts, incept 2009-06-23
2023-09-13 13:52:10

@Edward.fish "employers seem unserious"

Employers: "We honestly tried to find people, but they just aren't there. Guess we'll have to get more of those H1B's..."
Baltgayveteran 216 posts, incept 2021-09-16
2023-09-13 13:52:21

@Ostriches: "...The sole purpose of government is to form policy that motivates people...."

No. The sole purposes of government is (1) prevent invasions (see southern border) and (2) provide for a court system so people don't resort to violence in order to settle their disputes. You can toss in the Post Office and Patent/Copyright Office too.
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