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 The Consumer Is Strong!
Aquapura 4k posts, incept 2012-04-19
2023-09-12 10:21:03

Quote:
cost of childcare costing more than private school now

Child care costs are highly variable to the State in which you live. Raw costs, I used to live in one of the top 3 most expensive child care states. Your average run-of-the-mill child care center was $350-400/week per kid (toddler age). Throw in a second kid and that doubles - more if that kid is an infant. The nicer daycares, Montessouri centers, etc. are much more. Two kids pre-k and below is easily a $50k/annual proposition just for child care. For that same cost you can put them into some very prestigious private schools in the same community.

That said, I know many people that were sending their kids to fairly nice child care centers and paying those rates. In every instance the female was the financial breadwinner in the household. As someone in his mid-40's, of my friend group I can count on one hand (after cutting a few fingers off) how many couples I know where the male is the top income earner. Couples younger than me <40/yrs it is zero. For so-called "professional" working people I do not see women leaving the workforce anytime soon. They literally have to work to support their families.
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-12 10:22:01

@Aethor you're wrong - you're far enough up beyond break even that it makes sense.

The median earner no longer is.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Shadowmask 6k posts, incept 2021-05-24
2023-09-12 11:06:22

When should get EBT, it makes you eligible for other free stuff to, like Internet and phone. There is a national program that will give you up to $17.02 off your bill. https://www.kctv5.com/2023/09/11/kansans....

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The learning curve for being dead is steep, but everyone gets it down pat on the first go usually.--Thystra, March 28, 2023
Rickyd 2k posts, incept 2009-07-07
2023-09-12 11:06:32

Quote:
will not and cannot come back out


To anyone who would listen, i've been saying this for YEARS. House prices, stock prices etc will have to come back down or else the lower half of our population will revolt. Inflation increases the cost of EVERYTHING; taxes, home repairs, food EVERYTHING. People think they can hide out from this but they can't.

Look at California! They will not prosecute thefts below $850. People know it and they steal. In my mind, this is Government dealing with inflation. A blow-off valve if you will. YES, I know companies are leaving. I get it. But, it is solutions like that which are more prevalent then solving the problem.

Like 2008/2009, dot com bust, etc etc, it's going become front and center to people because no one will listen. My question is how do you back this out? Protest, call your congressman to stop it etc. Acquaintances of mine on the upper end of society LOVE this. Acquaintances on the lower end of society HATE this. My solution to backing this out is, you need to knock the stuffing out of the economy(ie raise interest rates, balance the budget, stop spending etc) but the conversation stops and I get a look like I am from Venus.
Winesorbet 977 posts, incept 2010-08-23
2023-09-12 11:28:38

Anyone else notice that the price of oil has been rising fast yet the price for regular unleaded hasn't budged? Odd, wondering how long it will hold out.
Tappedout 300 posts, incept 2020-09-21
2023-09-12 11:28:42

It's not really a wonder to me if the number of women leaving the work force is increasing lately.

Just on the numbers, day care and gasoline add up to significant yearly number for many households.

The state of the public schools? I'd be concerned enough to at least consider alternatives. Private is crazy expensive. So home school it is.

Pre C19, many families that never would have considered home school, for many reasons, were forced into it. It seems natural that many may have found it superior to their former way of life. Both the parents and the kids.

I'd be interested in honest numbers with regard to student enrollment in public schools pre and post C19. How many kids disappeared for the registry? I'd bet a lot did.
Ewtnewbie2 298 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2023-09-12 11:34:03

If something is denominated in US dollars, and the number of US dollars is increasing continuously through debasement by the government, won't the nominal price of ALL things denominated in US dollars increase? And ALL things encompasses: houses, cars, stocks, food, commodities, wages, etc...

While I agree the multiple paid for stocks will always fluctuate as that is the barometer of how much desire there is to own equities (individually as well as collectively in an index) and is the measure in which I view under/over valued stock markets. However, won't the nominal price of stocks have to increase as the US dollar is what determines that price? Hyperinflation economies that have gone supernova seem to have stock markets that go vertical, yet fail to keep up with the even greater inflation in the system.
Joeh 21 posts, incept 2023-02-10
2023-09-12 11:34:21

6 Month Treasuries are yielding over 5.5%. 2-year yield over 5%. 30-year yield 4.37%. I don't see an economic uptick on the horizon. I've been wrong before.
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-12 11:35:29

@Entnewbie2 -
Quote:
If something is denominated in US dollars, and the number of US dollars is increasing continuously through debasement by the government, won't the nominal price of ALL things denominated in US dollars increase? And ALL things encompasses: houses, cars, stocks, food, commodities, wages, etc...

Actual money dollars are increasing? Is that so?

Credit is not money. The differentiating factor is that credit CAN DEFAULT and if it does, it disappears where this is not true for MONEY.

You still think the two are the same don't you?
They're not.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Veeger 1k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-09-12 11:58:43

Quote:

Well @Veeger, for EBT:
FY 2019, full year: $92.5 billion
FY 2022, full year: $192.23 billion.

Next question!


No further questions your Honor!

smiley

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Aethor 429 posts, incept 2011-11-15
2023-09-12 12:12:49

@Tickerguy - True that (on "median earner no longer is").

It used to be, in decades past, that only true welfare addicts were thinking like I described in my first post.
But as money creation from nothing eats into purchasing power, even normal people start thinking that 8 hours of honest work doesn't result in enough reward to justify it. (and it's not only that they're "thinking" it... for many it's reality)

That was, I think, one of critical points in ethics / morale degradation in many ex-commie countries, when even normal people, who in a sane world would not live on welfare, had to accept reality that honest work, for many professions, simply doesn't pay.
(after a couple waves of hyperinflation)
The decline of the whole society sped up from that point.


Edward.fish 602 posts, incept 2021-12-17
2023-09-12 12:14:19

Dingleberry wrote..
The "great resignation", so called. I would add the (for lack of a better word) laziness is worse than the inflation. The latter is the main reason why inflation is still running rampant, despite dramatic rises in interest rates that should have had far more of a slowing economic effect by now. But those rates haven't. Why?
@Dingleberry -- And what of "the other side"? You know, the entitlement and ingratitude shown by employers who decry "Quiet Quitting" and recoil as if doing the job as described or refusing unpaid overtime is "stealing from the company"?

What about the people that have been burned again and again with promised, either implicitly or explicitly, promotion/raise/bonus which never comes?

No, things are FAR more complex than "Lazy!" and "People Just Don't Want to Work!"

Tickerguy wrote..
Dingleberry wrote..
I have seen reports of up to a 1/3rd of women not willing to come back to the office. Ever. What do you think this does to wages or labor supply?
This actually could be a good thing. Oh, women don't want to work? Gee, what else could they do? Wellllll....

Oh wait, they get off the hamster wheel? Well then, that means household income falls, which means house PRICES have to come down materially (like by 2/3rds or more!) and now a couple with one earner can afford one.

Oh my, look at that. Balance gets restored.

@Tickerguy, @Dingleberry -- This.

I don't remember where I heard it, but I think it was here, though it might have been Sowell's Basic Economics: "The cure for high prices is high prices." -- conjoined with "That which can't continue, won't." this means that the "squeeze" of prices motivate either addressing the source or else looking to some alternative: "Beef is too expensive, I'll buy Buffalo & elk from the hunters instead." and "Gee, nobody can afford a car anymore, I'll make one that's inexpensive!"

Veeger wrote..
I totally get the concept that nobody wants to work AT THE WAGES OFFERED. Fair enough.

But, if one chooses NOT to work at the proffered wage rate, they still have to eat, have a roof over their heads and keep their phone connected to the internet...

So what are they living on now

@Veeger -- Savings, and the food I have stored up. Fortunately I'm a saver by-nature, and I'm not too picky and can survive just fine off beans & rice.

One thing a lot of people don't seem to contemplate when talking about "people don't want to work!" is the cost of employment... from the employee's side: there's fuel, wear-and-tear on the car, travel time, and if you're starting a new job that's non-local the cost of moving. / At this point I cannot afford to move out-of-state for a job wherewith I am not guaranteed to recoup the loss plus whatever it would take to move back if "it doesn't work out" because of "culture fit" or whatever.

And that's not even contemplating the soul-crushing nature that applying for jobs has become. I've termed the process "Throwing resumes into black holes" given how infrequent any response is, and then out of those with responses an interview is yet again a rarity, and a job offer is certaily not assured because you got an interview... it's not "look the hiring manager in the eye and give him a firm handshake!"
Tappedout 300 posts, incept 2020-09-21
2023-09-12 14:12:59

"While I agree the multiple paid for stocks will always fluctuate as that is the barometer of how much desire there is to own equities (individually as well as collectively in an index) and is the measure in which I view under/over valued stock markets. However, won't the nominal price of stocks have to increase as the US dollar is what determines that price?"

Whatever happened to the concept of: A stock is a share in a company and its price is determined by the value of the company, its profits, and its outlook for future profits?

Desire to own, ignoring those elements for the most part, seems to be what we have now. Tulip mania.

Three things I know for sure:

Some day rationality will return and P/E will cycle back to normal.

I cannot and will not be able to predict when.

I will not be holding when it happens.
Veeger 1k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-09-12 14:13:11

@Edward.fish

I suspect you're in the distinct minority. I haven't seen too many EBT experts saving for their future! In fact, I haven't seen many in ANY income bracket doing much saving...

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Thallos 1 posts, incept 2023-09-12
2023-09-12 14:13:29

@Tickerguy wrote: "There is no labor "shortage." There IS a shortage of people willing to work a given job AT THE OFFERED WAGE."

I have to call partial BS on this based on anecdotal evidence. Both of my kids (23 and 19) have applied to DOZENS of positions where they met the criteria required and did not even get interviews. Companies claim a "shortage", but then won't even interview qualified candidates.

The most egregious was for the 23 year old. 3 qualifications: state certification (check), 2 years in the field (check, 3+), 1 year in admin (check, 1.5). She actually got a denial, no interview. The denial letter said they were looking for someone with "more experience".

My guess is that this phenomenon is HR department driven. "We just can't find people". That's BS. You just have no clue how to hire people. When I hire people, I actually pay attention to the posted requirements and interview people.

Thankfully both kids are finally working (internship at college and a 100% commission based job where things are going well in the first month).
Happycamper 643 posts, incept 2009-07-16
2023-09-12 14:13:45

The current push at our place is "return to 2019 productivity levels". Problem is, 2019 levels were already maxed out, consolidation of positions had already occurred, and were dependant on expert level people working their butt off doing many things. Many of those high-knowledge/productive people left/retired in the post 2019 chaos (gee wonder what happened?).

New people are brought in, at more money than the previous people, and if they don't leave in a few months, wind up doing maybe half of what the person previous did, and nowhere near the hours worked. The essential duties pile up on the veterans, and then they pop and leave also, so then it gets worse.

They are currently trying to force the new people to do all of these things, with minimal training, and they are making it about 6 months. I've never seen such a thing, it boggles the mind.
Charles.haddock 31 posts, incept 2022-11-02
2023-09-12 14:13:57

The "strong consumer" narrative comes from the fact that 1/ consumer spending has risen to above where it was before COVID, 2/ by official numbers, workers are out-earning inflation, 3/ the fact that so far credit and mortgage delinquencies are not showing up, etc. Of course, it depends whose numbers you look at. John Williams for example, using old formulas that the government used to use, came up with a figure of around 11% for inflation and 25% for unemployment this summer. That seems more reasonable based on what I've seen.

What I think actually has happened is that we shoveled an enormous amount of new money into the system from both 1/ government spending bills and 2/ the QE restart earlier this year when SVB and other banks fell apart. Isn't it a bit suspicious that the stock market boomed right after that? It should because trillions of liquidity will have a multiplier effect when reinvested.

I also urge to look at the charts for housing and what houses actually sold for -- sure looks to me like we are already on the descending edge of a nasty bubble. Also, volume is way down. I'm sure adding skyrocketing energy prices to the mix won't help any.

The official narrative is we are in a "goldilocks economy" -- perhaps that whopper from the nitwits in the financial press is the most worrisome thing of all.
Vernonb 3k posts, incept 2009-06-03
2023-09-12 14:14:22

It's really a bad situation for truly honest and industrious people.

Restaurant where the wife works will pay $14.00/hr for a dishwasher. She's been doing this job as well as food prep and delivery. If a person does answer the ad within 2 days they are gone with no contact or they start making wage increase demands.

My stepson is 15 and works part time as a dishwasher there. His 9th grade teachers were shocked he had a job and money in the bank far in excess of many of their monthly salaries. How many 15 year olds are nurtured to produce instead of simply taking here in the USA. My stepson is from Romania.

I have tried to instill in him early the value of working and being self-sufficient. Don't throw your money away on BS because when you need it - it will be gone. Don't fall into the credit desperation trap. Let's hope the Obamacare burden blows up and is gone. There is no incentive to be in business for yourself if government will steal it.

I told him already I will not pay for college in this current climate. I will help to get him through a trade school if he pursues that route.

Just got the wife started on a new credit card from the bank. $500.00 limit to teach proper credit management practices. I pay mine off every month. Never carry a balance. She was shocked to learn how many things including insurance make use of credit scores. After purchasing a car (used) she got to see first hand what excellent vs no or bad credit can cost you.

Neighbor spent 10's thousands of dollars on his 3 bdr home renovating the kitchen in marble. The average price in the neighborhood in 2006 was about 80K. His house might be worth 120K at the time but it was barely 1500 sq. feet if that much. I do envy his garage. It's large enough to be an industrial shop. I'd want one with a car lift,

Honestly, who will he sell the house too considering the 20-30 mile drive to the nearest major city from these boonies?

I see such extravagance as a sunken cost when in a middle class family neighborhood. Unlikely he can recover the true costs of the money spent. Most people will simply turn away - especially when they see the sticker shock of the property taxes for any future selling price.

The GB-DP never ends between inflated prices and property taxes increases for that inflated value when sold. This is if taxes aren't again increased in the interim to again compound the issue.

Sigh



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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Packetcap 1k posts, incept 2021-07-23
2023-09-12 14:15:07

Remember what was happening during the "great resignation" (AKA quiet quitting and vacationing in place)

- everyone was losing their minds and stressed
- layoffs due to the forced shutdowns
- 20-50% paycuts due to the forced shutdowns
- companies doubled down and expected more work from demoralized and overworked staff
- forced "vaccination" to keep your job
- forced medical testing, treating everyone like they had a fatal disease that spreads like Ebola
- offices closed, everyone forced to work from home, many had to learn how to do that
- schools closed, family stress due to lost learning and kids being converted from classrooms to "remote" learning (which was bogus, I had a front row seat to this)
- even more hate towards men in the workforce and insane bullshit like "pronouns" "trannies" and such

So if you were working and taking hits from all sides of course your productivity was down and you weren't in the mood to take shit from your idiot manager. They opened their mouth the wrong way and you said fuck you and quit.

Now business is making a coordinated effort to cancel the work from home and bring everyone back. Daily I read that people are being brought back to have "fun" in the office. Please. Work is work, it's not a juvenile playground where nothing gets done.

In effect both the government and business leaders helped break their workforce mentally in ways they masterbated about for years, now they cry and say nobody wants to work hard anymore. I personally know this isn't true
Generalee 225 posts, incept 2011-04-30
2023-09-12 14:15:53

@Edward.fish, in the past 5-10 years I've screened hundreds of resumes. Taken a chance on a couple only to learn, it isn't worth it. Hey if you can impress me on a 3 page resume then I'm goto the next one. In our business if you haven't worked for 1 employer for at least 3 years you haven't proven you have completed a project from start to finish to learn any lessons. Experience and responsibility are king. Help yourself. Life has been too easy too long.yeah I have a 20 yo enrolled in college and no I do not encourage him to take on Burden. Of supporting our defunct government by working a menial job when it is better to learn his skill. Yeah the finance depth at school is like we need proof he didn't file from its. Sure now piss off. I don't support the system as is and if I can break it then oh well.
Jdough 268 posts, incept 2012-05-04
2023-09-12 14:16:16

Aethor said
Quote:
Sitting on their rear end, not being accountable in any way, not responsible for anything, not having to learn anything - it eventually becomes like a drug, with the same addictiveness.

You're talking about our infinite job security + yearly COLA "public servants", right? smiley

I make well above median but I can tell you I'm so sick of the incompetence and bullshit that is rampant in this society that I'm ready to live in a van down by the river. It's demoralizing as hell to see everyone in front of you at the grocery store pay with EBT while you spend your life working to pay for it, at some point you say why bother? Time is the one currency you can't earn more of. There are also younger people who have never seen anything but this shit for their entire life, why would they plan for some rosy future? It's not 1960 anymore.

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America is a third world country with iPhones - Anonymous
Jack_crabb 18k posts, incept 2010-06-25
2023-09-12 14:16:44

Fuck HR.

That is all.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Poorsaver 536 posts, incept 2008-05-20
2023-09-12 14:47:54

Average gas price here in California is $5.46, ten cents higher than a week ago after the Labor Day holiday. Some stations are over $6.

They said it would ease after Labor Day. They lied.

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"I'm going to need a hacksaw"----Jack Bauer
"You can get killed walking your doggie!"----Vincent Hanna
Ihsmta 904 posts, incept 2008-04-10
2023-09-12 14:49:11

Maybe employers are advertising for positions that are not open now but will be once they find a better employee than the one now occupying said position and are currently a PITA and/or "Resigning In Place".

The three previously largest purchasers of US Treasuries have been China, Japan, and the Fed. The last year they have become the largest sellers. Based on deficit spending, the Fed's reverse repo account will be empty in 90-120 days. The banks are pulling their cash out to buy Treasuries at a higher interest rate, as intended. Once that account is empty, the Treasury will be selling debt into a market with much less demand that they are accustomed to. Rates will rise precipitously...unless the Fed fires up the printing press with QE.

So, sometime after January 1st we'll see rates skyrocket or inflation taking off again when the Fed starts printing.

I suspect that there will be a fight in CONgress between Dem's (MMT! PRINT!) and Republicans (AUSTERITY!).

Either way there will be no more guessing. The consumer and middle class will be completely, thoroughly, publicly, and officially f***ed.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoi
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-12 14:49:00

Just saw the MAPCO here jump ~22 cents overnight. They wouldn't do that unless they had to as there are competitors right on top of them; the other guys are almost-certainly right behind them as soon as their current tankage gets refilled.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
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