We call it.... "crazy Ivan" - Hunt for Red October
Except this is November, and the crazy came out of the CPI report.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing.
If you were short into this there was no getting away from what went up your backside; a literal 100 handles went into the Spoos within seconds and I'm quite sure if you'd been short you would have been gapped over, so a stop would have gotten you exactly no protection.
The problem in the "better than expected" report is in that bolded line and in fact that's a high going back all the way through April on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Food away from home also was up at the seasonally-adjusted high, where it has been for the last three months sequentially, so there's no love there either. Note that the latter is often subject to fairly long supply lines and contracts which delay the impact of movement both ways, and thus that it is lagging is no big shock. Food at bars and restaurants has been up less than food at home over the last 12 months and thus you can expect it to continue hitting the index for quite some time yet.
The 900lb Gorilla in the room this month is fuel oil, which is, as many people do not know, #2 diesel. It was up a stunning 19.8% on the month and stands at 68.5% up from last year this time. Anyone expecting the consumer experience to improve with that record has rocks in their head, never mind those who use it for heating that are about to get a visit from the proctologist this winter.
Incidentally if you are one of them and your supplier is screwing you on price go to a truck stop (or any rural fuel place that sells to farmers for off-road use) and bring jerry cans. They sell dyed fuel for use in the refer units. Its the same thing and if its cheaper to buy it there than pay whatever the guy with the truck wants to bring it to the house your decision should be obvious.
Piped gas relaxed some, which is good news if you use it, but its still up 20% on the year. A huge percentage of people use that for heat, so there you go. Oh, and guess what is used to generate electrical power? Uh huh, which is why electricity is up 14.1% on the year.
If you remember me talking about "Owner's Equivalent Rent" and how it falsely stated that there was no inflation while home prices shot the moon you can see the inverse of that right now in the OER number which is up 6.9% on the year. That which held down inflation figures for years is now going to prop them up for years, like it or not. There is no evidence that rents, on the other hand, is relaxing at all. Anyone who thinks The Fed can ignore 32.6% of spending in the economy has rocks in their head; they most-certainly will not, and that's what shelter comprises. Annualized its up 6.9% so no, we're not "winning" on inflation.
Transportation services (you don't need to get to the store and go to work, right?) were up strongly as well; 15.2% on the year (yikes) with car insurance being up big. That which you're forced to spend there you won't spend anywhere else.
Interestingly enough I see some evidence of softening in the hotel pricing market, which is likely due to demand destruction -- after all, their interest picture looks like yours, so absent that they'd be raising prices. This should be paid attention to, particularly over the "snowbird" season in the next few months as it might be a leading indicator.
Oh, don't worry about health insurance: It's only up 20.6% on the year, and the BLS claims its also less than 1% of spending. Sure it is.
Who's also having trouble maintaining prices? Sportball, surprisingly. Down 17.7% over the last year. Whadda ya mean those $10 beers and $20 parking fees are too much?
And so, as they say, it goes.