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 75 bips
Abelardlindsey 1k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2022-09-20 13:20:12

Stealing Russia's foreign reserves didn't help at all. I recall that the Biden administration did not even consult with the FED prior to imposing all of the sanctions on Russia. Bad move.

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It's all in the mitochondria.

"It's the future, and...you're not."
Tickerguy 188k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-09-20 13:20:31

It's not just the United States. It's also all of Europe. Same dynamic is playing out over there.

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NASA faked out a computer instead of running the test.
Then tried to launch and aborted instead of going "BOOOM!"
Did they abort the JABS after faking THOSE tests?

Abelardlindsey 1k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2022-09-20 13:30:37

Well, when it comes to finance and economic issues, the EU mandarins are even delusional than our own people.

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It's all in the mitochondria.

"It's the future, and...you're not."
Okiehorse 9 posts, incept 2012-12-06
2022-09-20 14:36:24

I doubt this is the right word, but I am surprised at how volatile rates can be. That graph is no lazy river. When things turn, they can turn hard and fast.
Elbowwilham 44 posts, incept 2021-08-20
2022-09-20 15:11:29

Volker gets all this praise for raising rates so high. It it your opinion that he was just following the market?
Tickerguy 188k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-09-20 15:16:50

@Elbowwilham - I presume you bothered to look at the chart and go have a peek at the data in the time in question? There is some (the first two years) for which the 13w bill is missing.

The one year bill, however, is in the data set back into the 1960s and while the longer the duration the less-solid the correlation with FFR, simply because they're two different things, in point of fact most of the time it holds EVEN AT THAT MATURITY during that time period.

In other words the data answers your question. It is not a matter of opinion; what moved first is fact, not opinion so it would seem to me that perhaps you need to go hang out over with the CNBS crowd.

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NASA faked out a computer instead of running the test.
Then tried to launch and aborted instead of going "BOOOM!"
Did they abort the JABS after faking THOSE tests?
Nashville 101 posts, incept 2018-02-27
2022-09-20 15:42:30

@Abelardlindsey - yes, paid off the ARM long ago. In hindsight, with such artificially low rates since 2008, that may have been a blunder. We certainly enjoy our location a few streets from Belle Meade. But again, just need to downsize - too much to heat, cool, insure, upkeep, pay taxes on & worry with. Destination - anywhere but Davidson Co.

Not impelled to move and haven't yet found a suitable replacement away from Nashville proper. Gonna take a severe hit due to cap gains tax when we do sell. Maybe I should just stay put, rent out the extra space, and help build the Titans a new stadium? Maybe then they would play better??
Tsherry 10k posts, incept 2008-12-09
2022-09-20 15:42:50

@Boredfree:

Quote:
Don't worry, be thrifty, and keep your eye on the obits for future sales...

This is why I hit Hibid auctions every week.

1 year old Brother multifunction printer, needed an ink cartridge. Printer cost me $3. The cartridge obviously more than that.

Stuff I need and can make use of.


Keep track of the Vexxed; they will almost certainly have something you can use after they die suddenly.

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Fuck Joe Biden with a GIANT RUSTY CHAINSAW.
Elbowwilham 44 posts, incept 2021-08-20
2022-09-20 15:51:32

I did go back to 1980, but noticed the blue-line disappeared. I thought maybe something changed back then that I am unaware of. But adding the 1 year cleared that up, thanks.
Tsherry 10k posts, incept 2008-12-09
2022-09-20 15:51:45

@ Tdurden: Collins KWM-1, $3 at a garage sale. Power cord was shot. Flipped it on ebay many years ago.

Tidy, tidy profit.

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Fuck Joe Biden with a GIANT RUSTY CHAINSAW.
Burya_rubenstein 2k posts, incept 2007-08-08
2022-09-20 17:26:14

Quote:
Mortgage rates are already over 6%...trending to 7%.

Pfaaaah! I paid 8.75% on my last House and thought I was getting the deal of the century. And before that I got 7.5% on a passbook savings account!

(I've always assumed that this whole FED thing was just Kakabuni Theater to convince the Hoi Polloi that the Government wasn't "just printing money").
Ihsmta 798 posts, incept 2008-04-10
2022-09-20 17:59:14

The national average 30 year fixed mortgage rate per Bankrate.com is 6.19% which is still historically low.

The first two houses I purchased in 1994 and 1997 were financed at 8+% and I thought I was getting a deal. The house I bought in 2013 was financed at 4.25% and I was elated. All 30 year fixed.

The highest 30 year fixed ag real estate loan I've seen around here recently is 7.34%.

Only when the Fed Funds Rate has "followed" long term rates up to the point that demand has begun to be destructed do we really see the possibility of a slow down. We're NOWHERE near that. My sister works for a title company and she's still managing new construction loan draws all day long every day.

Back in the 1980's I remember construction stopping almost over night. Houses sat empty, unsold, and sometimes weren't even finished.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoi
Ronniemcghee 276 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2022-09-20 18:14:25

@Burya ~
In 1981, my first home purchase was at 16.21% for the mortgage. It was a 50k 3 bedroom wooden exterior home. On a dirt road in Georgia. I paid it off as fast as I could saving those interest payments.
Rates today seem quite low to me.
Jesjohn94 803 posts, incept 2019-05-07
2022-09-20 18:30:15

The addiction to debt is going to take a while to break. Even if your rate is great what happens if your income and home value drops? Shit happens far more often than people realize over decades. Bought a house and then 19 years later financed a new house purchase with 30 year loan? Why not do the last one on a 15 year loan? Everyone wants a bigger house with massive walk in closets but do you really need it?
Veeger 669 posts, incept 2013-02-13
2022-09-20 18:35:45

My first couple houses were 12.25% or thereabouts. Both $55k homes. I'm kinda happy with a 3% jumbo and 50+% equity.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Goldbrick 7k posts, incept 2008-01-23
2022-09-20 18:36:55

The 3-mo t-bill is still like a moonshot.
Inline

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"The higher I go, the crookeder it gets." --Michael Corleone
Tsherry 10k posts, incept 2008-12-09
2022-09-20 20:09:57

the next houses purchased by the family will be cash.

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Fuck Joe Biden with a GIANT RUSTY CHAINSAW.
Ronniemcghee 276 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2022-09-20 20:10:00

@ Veeger ~
55k!!
You were rich! You must have made it to a paved road.
I've read that people can't sell their personal home for much more than they can purchase a new from from a contractor. Never sure that has been the case as there are other variables like land size and location to better schools, etc.

Veeger 669 posts, incept 2013-02-13
2022-09-20 20:19:08

@Ronniemcghee

Yep, first year out after vocational school, 1978, I made $38k! I was rolling in it! My, my, how times have changed.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Whitehat 10k posts, incept 2017-06-27
2022-09-20 21:09:36

Tsherry -- the next house i purchase WILL be CASH after the CrASH.

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smiley Je souhaite
Shadowmask 4k posts, incept 2021-05-24
2022-09-20 22:10:41

I'll stay in this house and watch the neighborhood burn down, figuratively speaking. There's a lot of for sale signs. Someone will get stuck with a house they can't afford.
Margbp 57 posts, incept 2021-12-02
2022-09-20 22:20:08

Our house is small especially compared to where we live. I'm sure I lost a few potential friends over the years when they discovered we didn't live in a huge house as they did. It's a basic late 50s/early 60s house. Real brick. Solid. Huge yard. But small.

Of course, the first couple of years we talked about adding on as our family grew and they shared bedrooms. We never did. Now the kids are gone.

I'm glad we didn't spend the money to build bigger even though there were years we were stuffed to the gills.

I feel like we're downsizing even though we haven't moved. We're getting rid of stuff and doing some small updating here and there for our own enjoyment. Nothing outrageous.

Our little house quite suits us.

Quik49 13k posts, incept 2007-12-11
2022-09-20 22:35:51

I remember back in the 80s when my dad got transferred...they had 2 house payments...in the upper teens interest. The overlap was about 4 months.

My first house at 59k was 6.25 and I was thrilled to get it. Refied it later and paid student loans off at 5.25.

Current house was down to 2.75...but its paid for now so I dont give two fucks.

Next property we buy will be for cash in the crash... As others are thinking.

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2 + 2 =5
Hapie 258 posts, incept 2020-07-25
2022-09-21 08:18:31

As I trade short term, I try to stay away from predictions.

On Fed days, I stay away from trading because market behavior, especially post announcement, is unpredictable and so violent.

However, I try to stay conscious of a few basic correlations.

IMHO, currency markets are much larger and, therefore, carry more weight, than even the bond market. The stock market is much smaller.

The US dollar has been really strong compared to all other major currencies.

If weakness of currency portends economic weakness, we know that Europe has been accelerating towards implosion.

Because the US dollar is the one-eyed leader among the blind, the Fed can afford to keep diluting the dollar, which will also hold up the stock market.

So, I am just asking an honest question, why would the Fed strengthen the US dollar by jacking up the interest rates more than it has to?

Over the last 100 years, the Fed has been the major cause of inflation, why would they care now? All the power brokers have always had vested interest in inflation as it allows them to rob the citizens. And, if the inflation goes parabolic, it is time for a new currency!

The central banks have all been working hard to destroy the currencies, appears to be the major reason for their existence and modus operandi to rob the wealth of a nation, and so, is that not exactly what they want, for their "shining" new CBDC?



Bodhi 5k posts, incept 2008-02-23
2022-09-21 08:19:12

I have to chuckle at the angst over 6%+ interest rates. My first house in 1978 was at 9.75% interest, the first time in a couple of years that rates had dropped below double digits.

I bought my last house (a fixer) in 2013 for cash. I put about $30k into repairs and upgrades. Sold in 2017 for a 50% profit. I have been living in my dad's (now 91) over-sized abode for the past 5 years as his caretaker.
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