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2022-09-10 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 595 references Ignore this thread
Think You'll Have Medicare?
[Comments enabled]

No you won't.

Mounting evidence from around the country shows that students who spent most of the time learning remotely during the 2020-2021 school year, many of them Black and Latino, lost about half of an academic year of learning. That’s twice as much as their peers who studied in person that year.

Third graders are at a particularly delicate moment. This is the year when they must master reading or risk school failure. Everything after third grade will require reading comprehension to learn math, social studies and science. Students who don’t read fluently by the end of third grade are more likely to struggle in the future, and even drop out, studies show.

If even half of these kids fail by this year that loss will be permanent.  There are approximately sixty million children under the age of 18 in elementary and secondary schools in the United States.  This is 1/6th of that so about ten million said kids are at risk and a 50% failure rate, which is likely low, means five million of them will never pay taxes or contribute to the economy in a meaningful manner.

At the same time those who get older march onward.  This in turn means two years worth of birth rate is not only gone its worse than gone because those kids will basically be wards of the state welfare apparatus.

Economically you'd be better off if they were dead (that's neutral where this is and will remain a cost) but of course doing that would be, well, monstrous.

The Federal budget's unfunded entitlements (which are Medicare and Medicaid, mostly) will not survive this.  People will scream about Social Security but that has never been and won't be the problem; Medicare and Medicaid will be.

There are many people who are responsible for this -- all fifty Governors, for example, shut down the schools for at least part of the time.  Most of the "blue" ones did so for over a year, some nearly two.  Masking policies ruin facial expression recognition which is essential to the development of both speech and reading, and those were put in place even in so-called "Red" states.

Teacher's unions and just plain teachers all expected the kids to take the punishment to protect them from the potential bad outcome of a nasty infection which they made far more-likely through their own personal lifestyle decisions.  Think not?  Have a look at the body mass of the "average" teacher.

The nasty part of this won't hit the economy for five to ten years and once it does it will not leave for forty more years.  That's how long it will be, roughly, before those people "pass through" the economy.

There's nothing that can be done about it but we damn well ought to make sure we do plenty to the people who caused it so as to make damn sure nobody ever tries that again.

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Mjeff87 978 posts, incept 2021-11-22
2022-09-10 07:56:02

My biggest financial concern in my plans to retire in 2030 is healthcare. My wife will probably continue to work for a few years longer than me, so it's possible I can jump on her plan, but will only get us so far. My 401 was earmarked specifically for Heath insurance but it's been taking a jailhouse shower type beating lately. It was supposed to bridge the gap to 65 (I'll only be 60). I'm praying for some recovery over the next seven years....

Oblamacare is not an option. I'd sooner get hit by a bus than enroll in it.

Si Vis Pacem, para Bellum
Prof_dilligaf 401 posts, incept 2021-09-02
2022-09-10 07:56:07

That's okay, since there won't any doctors left to go to anyhoo. At least none you can trust, either because they're authoritarians' puppets and/or because their degree has been "enhanced" into uselessness by DIE.

Do-it-yourself biopsy is the growth industry of future, man, so jump on the train (indoor plumbing not included)!
Wayiwalk 510 posts, incept 2016-11-09
2022-09-10 07:56:18

Quite the awakening this morning.

Based on what I see after watching a few of those on the street interviews of late teen / 20 something year old adults and their cluelessness of BASIC facts logic and vocabulary, I think you might be overestimating the benefits of the public schools to begin with.

I'll just stop there.

No I can't.

I despise the unions that spent their every breath to make this happen. I remember my parents in the 70s (on Long Island) coming back from school board meetings totally besides themselves at trying to push back on the behemoth then....and not getting anywhere with it.

I tell my kids every day - if they have kids, they must homeschool them.

The Lockdowns Will Continue Until the Morale Improves!

I keep thinking, "it can't get any worse" and then it does!
Northeaster 227 posts, incept 2011-05-13
2022-09-10 08:02:26

Amusing the timing of this post as my mayor recently messaged me that those of us who called out our government about school policy were right! I told him that was HIS fault for quoting and relying on The CDC as it was political, and nothing to do with health policy.

These people, who destroyed our kids, don't and didn't care. Our state teachers union spent nearly half-a-million in state lobbying during COVID to keep the kids home. Of course those of us who called out our school committees are equated with being domestic terrorists. Infuriating.
Shadowmask 4k posts, incept 2021-05-24
2022-09-10 08:04:01

The current goal is third grade to master reading? We had to learn how to read in first grade and if you didn't, you were held back. But they taught us phonics unlike the look and guess method they do now.

The look and guess method is why literacy levels are so low and there's videos of young people not understanding basic logic, math, or what used to be considered common facts.
Thelazer 1k posts, incept 2009-05-11
2022-09-10 08:09:10

Shadow, they are doing EVERYTHING they can to NOT hold students back.

I know, because we have a kid with a learning disability as well as some other issues and they push him thru each year.

He's in 3rd grade now and a good 2 years behind other kids.
Bagbalm 6k posts, incept 2009-03-19
2022-09-10 08:25:21

@Shadowmask - Either written English is coded speech or it is ideographs like Chinese or hieroglyphs. I've come to suspect that those education 'experts' who teach sight reading of whole words are themselves mentally limited and impaired. They and are trying to teach their work around to those who don't need it as the proper basis for reading.
Shadowmask 4k posts, incept 2021-05-24
2022-09-10 08:47:35

@bagbalm it's a bad work around anyway. English is very phonetic with a few exceptions. It's either as you said and/or they do it to dumb us down.
Joancrawford 358 posts, incept 2013-10-14
2022-09-10 08:47:53

As a former teacher, we had a saying. The first three years of grammar school, you actually learn to read. That is, you decode, break apart words by syllables, find the root word, study the prefixes and suffixes, and learn how words appear in sentences and then paragraphs. During these years children learn how to construct a paragraph (beginning, middle, and end).

By third grade these skills are expected to be mastered. In other words, the remainder of your life you spend reading to learn. I cannot over emphasize how important the first three years of school is for children. That's why when I was sent home from my last teaching post, I was extremely saddened for my students, most all of whom were struggling with their school work.

Add to that the mask thing which I still see parents inflicting on themselves and their kids, and you have an unmitigated disaster in the works. If you watch even small infants, they study your face intensely, looking at the way your mouth moves, the muscles you use to smile at them. All of this was removed from our nation's children for two plus years.

I hope there is a very dark place in hell waiting for the monsters who inflicted this upon our most vulnerable and valuable citizens-our kids.

OT-Last night hubby and I attended our annual downtown folk festival after a two year hiatus (guess why). We ran into my doctor and his spouse. Wifey and I used to work together so she recognized me immediately. I could barely conceal my contempt for the good doctor, who asked me two years ago why I hadn't got my vax. He got his. It's too early to drink a toast to that a@@hole, but tonight I'll mix up a nice glass of premium vodka and wish that bastard a painful and slow death.

Don't f*ck with me fellas! This ain't my first time at the rodeo.

America-it was a good run while it lasted. RIP!
Thystra 1k posts, incept 2009-07-12
2022-09-10 10:35:00

The lucky ones died peacefully, suddenly and unexpectedly. The unlucky suffer through turbo cancers and endless illnesses until their weakened immune system gives out and they are consumed by whatever opportunistic illness finally claims them.
Kirklandguy 45 posts, incept 2022-02-14
2022-09-10 10:35:07

What was done to the children in this country absolutely boils my blood.
Our bullshit RINO governor DeWine went all-in on destroying children for two years between closing schools, forced quarantines/testing, and masks.
It would have been even worse if the state legislature hadn't finally grown some balls after 12 months and limited what he could do outside of schools.
Wife and I and several other parents fought for 1.5 school years to get masks off our kids at the Catholic school our kids attend, and it took citing EUA statutes and an attorney's threatened class-action with 100 parents signing on to finally get -any- communication on masking and restrictions, finally dropped Feb of 2022!
20-21 our kids were Kindergarten and Preschool, 21-22 1st grade and Kindergarten, so yes administrators, I will fight to the bitter end for the MOST FORMATIVE YEARS of my children's schooling.

Fast-forward to this school year and magically Ohio Department of Education says "Oh, everything's fine, be normal!" and the Catholic school website was silently scrubbed of anything at all Wuhan related.

Just a joke and a travesty, and I never ever ever want to hear any of these groups talk about how we need to do something "for the children" again.
Disgusted 418 posts, incept 2021-07-20
2022-09-10 10:35:28

Prof_d is right. The entire medical cartel is going to collapse anyway. Almost every "doctor" has been jabbed with the toxic shit. How many are already fucked in the head? I've been talking to a lot of people lately that I know that drank the spike protein cool-aide and every fucking one of them sound brain damaged. I'm not fucking kidding here people. Something really serious is happening. Not just that they look older and more haggard. IQ levels are dropping fast. How many are going to take the latest version? The key word is cumulative. This society is going to collapse. How can all the bad policies of the Shitler administration get turned around if half the country is fucking brain damaged? Tens of millions of brain damaged kids that grow up to be less than worthless. Ad in millions of illegals that are a drain, and poof, the country collapses when the currency collapses to zero from the pols trying to print endless sums to pay for it all. I used to laugh at the term "zombie apocalypse", not anymore. Buy more ammo while you still can, you're going to need it.
Wd 58 posts, incept 2021-11-02
2022-09-10 10:35:43

There is a university form I visit once in awhile and with in-person classes starting again I'm seeing a huge number of students already complaining about how they are expected to take notes, if they even really need to be attending classes, and the workload. Of course you always have complaints but it's different. There are so many more and the complaints are not so much about there being more work than in high school, it's that they are completely lost at how to even begin to do the work.

They've lost two years learning remotely and completely lost their final year in high school where are you are at least partially prepared for the heavier workload of University. In my final year of high school they jacked up the pace of work and difficulty of material to help prepare us for University.

It was great. I was finally being challenged. But these kids have completely missed out and they don't even know what they've missed. They know enough to complain about how unfair it is. They're just missing whose fault it is.

How many are going to fail or drop out now? Another wasted year and a Year's tuition thrown away.
Greenacr 623 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2022-09-10 10:36:31

The school shutdowns probably accelerated the trend of young students (less than 3rd grade) failing to master critical thinking/educational skills.

But regarding the premise that Medicare is not going to around, isn't that a given irrespective of the fact that a good portion of these kids will not be a good taxpayer in the future? Doesn't the same premise hold for all these illegals that are crossing the border? It's just a matter of how fucked we are going to be and when.

Just another reason I am out on a 3+ week bucket list trip to Colorado, Moab and Flagstaff. BTW, I-70 (except for the Denver area) was wide open even on Labor Day weekend. Quick glance of the hotel parking lots show most hotels here less than 50 percent occupancy. Last night all the restaurants were WIDE OPEN on a Friday evening. Not much tax revenue being generated here right now.
Mrbobo 21 posts, incept 2021-12-01
2022-09-10 10:36:47

I would like to say I am shocked that literacy in the 3rd grade is not a given. Calculators are introduced so early to most; the innumerates can treat it as black-box magic.
Verbal communication (in English) is becoming a degenerate patois. Who needs phonics when you have emoji?

Uwe 10k posts, incept 2009-01-03
2022-09-10 10:36:51

Shadowmask wrote..
English is very phonetic with a few exceptions.
As someone whose first language was German, who didn't start learning English until I was transplanted to the USA in the middle of second grade, I'll say this: English is nowhere near as phonetic as it could be, and there are way too many exceptions. There are many, many words in English that one must learn to spell via memorization because their spelling does not match their pronunciation, and if you can't spell them based on their pronunciation, you can't read them phonetically either.

"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church p
Kirklandguy 45 posts, incept 2022-02-14
2022-09-10 10:37:06


Thank you for doing what you could for the children!
I cannot believe the crickets from teachers and administrators over this. To me, the absolute primary job of a K-2 teacher was a complete failure the past two years. I heard from my own kids that their Kindergarten teacher (one had her for 20-21, one for 21-22) essentially "broke the rules" and did a lot of non-mask time with the class specifically around reading and phonics.
The other teacher...did not. I'm curious to see how that plays out the next year or two.
Onelegged 1k posts, incept 2009-11-13
2022-09-10 10:37:10

I have a friend who is an elementary teacher here. Two weeks ago they tested grade school kids for reading/language skills/progress.

The vast majority of the kids were found to be THREE years behind.

All The News That Fits, We Print.

New York Times
Guerin 121 posts, incept 2021-09-26
2022-09-10 10:37:47

I'm going back a long way, but I recall first grade being the level where reading texts and writing short pieces was expected, there was also a battery of assessment tests given starting that grade level to assess where everyone was.

It's a dark thought, but I sometimes wonder if the campaign to jab the kids wasn't at least partially about trying to hide the coming disaster of illiterates by decreasing the likelihood they lived to adulthood.
Cheetah9 809 posts, incept 2021-02-15
2022-09-10 10:37:47

IF these kids actually survive into adulthood. The deathjuice is working better than expected and will continue to kill. As Wayiwalk mentioned though, many young people were already effectively retarded before the corona scam. I for one look forward to more of these under 85 IQ members of society succumbing to the deathjuice. This includes Joan's doc and many other adults out there too. Good riddance! Good luck with that SADS fuckers!

Reason: wrong person referenced
Burya_rubenstein 2k posts, incept 2007-08-08
2022-09-10 10:37:47

English is extremely phonetic, but it uses phonetic rules from multiple languages. The key seems to be identifying the language of origin of each word to get spelling and pronunciation.
Abelardlindsey 1k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2022-09-10 11:17:58

The nasty part of this won't hit the economy for five to ten years...

Kids will start to show abnormal personality development starting about now. They will not be able to socialize well with each other or adults. Teen criminality will dramatically increase starting about five years from now. Girls will be just as crazy as boys. The social and economic costs of this criminality will be the biggest economic impact over the five to ten year period. Ten years out is when these people would start entering the job market and will not be able to do so because of their lack of social development. This is when the real economic pain will begin.

Its not just the "hood" kids that are effected by this. Kids from nice suburban families are also showing some socialization effects from the lack of school and masking policies. These kids as well will display improper social affect as they grow up as well. They will come across as being "autistic" like in that they will not be able to socialize normally and will say inappropriate things or in inappropriate manner. They will come across as "off" in social interactions.

These people will not be able to do jobs that involve high level personal interaction such as technical sales or business negotiation. This will also have major impact on the economy, as well as society.

Nothing is good about the covid-19 debacle except that it has dramatically increased skepticism, if not outright hostility, towards the medical establishment on the part of many of us.

It's all in the mitochondria.

"It's the future,'re not."
Greenacr 623 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2022-09-10 11:20:43

One question that needs to be asked ... where are the Parents in all of this? Given the sorry state of the schools (although those in northern rural Ohio seem to be somewhat okay) why would you leave education just to the Schools?

My wife and I worked with all of my kids through High School to make sure they understood what was being taught and that homework was done and correct. It started with reading to our kids when they were babies. All graduated with Honors from College and I would maintain that is not an accident.

All of my kids are doing the same with their children. I amazed at my 4-year granddaughter and 5-year-old grandson's vocabulary, comprehension and rudimentary math skills. This is all before they even hit Kindergarten.
Evilcecil 167 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2022-09-10 11:20:50

Once again, I will never forgive or forget what these fuckers have done to our children, our country and society in general.
Slow, painful deaths for them all.

Just doin' the best I can.
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