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 Jobs? Oh My, FED RAISES!
Ihsmta 778 posts, incept 2008-04-10
2022-08-05 17:12:46

I'm not doubting you, KD. After the big trip, I'm definitely watching my driving habits and consolidating trips. While I'm not poor by any means, I notice the pinch at the pump and can only imagine what the working poor are experiencing.

I believe that this summer is the "summer of freedom" most have been yearning for, cost be damned, and the real slow down will start in earnest after Labor Day weekend.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality." Ayn Rand
Cwatson1982 222 posts, incept 2017-05-07
2022-08-05 17:12:55

To the real topic at hand. Check out what it looks like when you add total employees to the crash in JOLTS job openings as a composite indicator of real demand for employees. Not pretty

https://twitter.com/CourtHoover/status/1....
Inline
Doladin 59 posts, incept 2022-01-15
2022-08-05 18:22:42

I'm not sure what to think of the jobs scenario (here in Australia)
Apparently we've had record job openings, but not only do they seem to mostly be for minimum wage abusive jobs in the service industry, you need a certain gene therapy.
My fiancee is young, beautiful and reliable and pure blooded and could barely get an interview - my thoughts are that small business has been absolutely decimated
My massive corporation that I work for, and the procurement industry, is unable to find good talent. I am guessing it's because of these factors: excess deaths from those established in the industry; mandates at all large firms; and the fact that the global supply chain is in death throes and many companies realise they need professionals to add some resilience
The Australian government is more or less considering those on welfare but looking for work as "employed". Yet all these Rosie economic outlooks and our reserve bank is barely lifting rates!
Edward.fish 282 posts, incept 2021-12-17
2022-08-05 18:23:31

Thombradley wrote..
This is strictly anecdotal but here in AZ when I moved here 6 plus years ago you literally couldn't find a doctor or a dentist that would take new patients and if they did you received an appt WEEKS in the future. Now Im besieged with e mails which, condensed, basically say we love you book an appt or you overdue for a checkup cleaning etc. Same with my vet. When i called and said my dog is vomiting and crapping everywhere I got we can see you next month. So my take is people are deferring any expense they can and service providers are feeling the pinch.

@Thombradley -- So, transitioning to a "service based economy" was a super-smart and wise thing. Aren't you glad we got rid of all those pesky and dirty manufacturing jobs! </sarc>

Given how well "Lock Her Up!" went in 2016, I wonder how well a "Lock The Fed Up!" would work.
Neal 180 posts, incept 2014-01-09
2022-08-05 20:02:58

Hours worked were flat overall.
Why is this? Normally when unemployment falls it is because people are hiring to get things done. But if they need more things done doesnt that normally also include getting the existing staff to put in more overtime? After all any small employer with say 1 to 5 employees cant increase workload by a few percent by hiring an extra employee. Easier to get the existing staff to put in an extra hour or 2.
Could the hours work be flat because more workers are putting in extra hours, but to offset the lost hours of other workers that are on the books but pulling fewer hours as they are off sick with the bug? After all there are any number forum posters mentioning jabbed coworkers off sick leaving the rest of the workers to cover their load?
Is their any indication in the statistics breakdown of a rise in sick leave?
Sonoran_monk 615 posts, incept 2021-08-16
2022-08-05 20:03:20

@Ihsmta - How much of that is buffered by the last bit of remaining available limit on people's credit cards?
Latviski 158 posts, incept 2008-02-22
2022-08-05 20:03:25

@Thombradley
We just had two of our (again) biggest months ever and thats while being understaffed! I can barely keep up with demand at my practice (dental) and were doing everything we can not to turn the excess of patients away.
Im doing more big, high dollar cases this year than ever, and Im seeing little to no balking at prices (we raised ours 10% over the past year).

Smokeyblonde13 204 posts, incept 2021-10-29
2022-08-05 20:46:20

@ Ihsmta

Quote:
I believe that this summer is the "summer of freedom" most have been yearning for, cost be damned, and the real slow down will start in earnest after Labor Day weekend.


Think this is spot-on. Seems that most folks feel if not out-right now that things are going to get bloody horrible this fall and that the only way out is through.
Dbigkahunna 286 posts, incept 2010-01-10
2022-08-05 20:48:54

As far as gasoline prices the wholesalers require space for winter blend by mid Sept. to have WB in the retail tanks by Oct. 1. Seems summer driving has not consumed projected. Still a month to go.
Have my eye on distillate builds in PADD1 and PADD2. So far toward the bottom of seasonal build.

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Blessed, Grateful and Living a Dream
Bluto 1k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2022-08-05 21:13:57

Quote:
The truth is much worse as the weekly earnings, which is what matters as it captures the hours worked and size of the actual paychecks, went from $1,067.32 -> $1,116.54. That is a 0.9% increase which is less than half The Fed's TARGET inflation rate!


I'm not following the math there. Isn't that a 4.6% increase?


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The God who gave us life, gave us liberty at the same time; the hand of force may destroy, but cannot disjoin them. Thomas Jefferson
Prof_dilligaf 343 posts, incept 2021-09-02
2022-08-05 21:13:59

@Tdurden - Kind of surprised it's taken this long for that to trickle down to the domestic job market. It's long been the standard for companies hiring for foreign office positions, a place where it makes logistical sense, if not practical hiring sense: most people aren't very good at writing, producing and directing a video selling themselves, and if they were, they likely wouldn't need your stinkin' job.
Treblec 2 posts, incept 2022-03-10
2022-08-05 21:14:02

My daughter is in hospitality. There seems to be a lot of pent up vacation demand. They have a labor shortage and are offering hiring bonuses with very few takers. It will be interesting to see what happens after the kids go back to school.
Tickerguy 186k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-08-05 21:14:12

Fat-fingered the calculator Bluto; corrected.

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The law of scoreboards is not subject to repeal.
Fuck around and find out.
New business: Karl's Guillotine sales and repair; you slice 'em, we dice 'em.
Greenacr 585 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2022-08-05 21:37:01

@Ishmta "He calls BS. Says supply chain issues and availability of product are still his biggest headache...right after employee shortages."

Okay you are right. I will call my son you happens to be in upper management at this plant and I will tell him he is full of shit. I guess I will wait until he wakes up though as he spent most of yesterday working across three shifts to cut back production.

Guerin 96 posts, incept 2021-09-26
2022-08-06 07:13:16

My folks recently went through the hassle of getting a new stove. The order was placed in March, it finally arrived in mid-July, about 4 months after ordering and more than 2 months behind the initial estimate.

Import logistics remain pretty stressed. I continue to see penalties of thousands of dollars on many containers coupled with high transport costs, all of which have to eventually flow through to the customer as these work their way through the supply chain. I know I have read industry articles indicating storage capacity is in short supply and lots more will be needed to deal with a glut of inventory that's not moving. That could break the back of some importers because one of the most common methods of reducing costs at the port is to send a truck in to pull the container and store it somewhere until you can deliver it (modest savings), or in more extreme cases unload the goods into a warehouse and send back the container (larger savings).

For an approximate comparison based on some prices I've seen out in California:

Leave container in the port a week beyond free time - $2,000
Pull and store in a yard for 7 days - $1,500
Pull and unload in a warehouse for 7 days - $1,000

Leave in the port 2 weeks beyond free time - $5,000
Pull and store in a yard for 14 days - $3,500
Pull and store in a warehouse for 14 days - $1,200

It gets very bad if people who rely on option 3 no longer can.
Inspectrcalahan 289 posts, incept 2021-01-15
2022-08-07 19:38:17

I still stroll around the gas station when I fill up , there is still a lot of $5 dollar purchases. Yesterday a black dude pulled by me in his big deisel truck and bought $20. I guess he was just trying to get home.
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