The Market Ticker
Rss Icon RSS available
Fact: There is no immunity or protection against The Law of Scoreboards.
Did you know: What the media does NOT want you to read is at https://market-ticker.org/nad.
You are not signed on; if you are a visitor please register for a free account!
The Market Ticker Read Message in The Market Ticker
Top Forum Top Login FAQ Register Clear Cookie Logout
Page 2 of 3  First123Last
 Jobs? Oh My, FED RAISES!
Nashville 85 posts, incept 2018-02-27
2022-08-05 12:15:44

This whole gasoline demand number really intrigues me. IMO its key to divining the effect of the economy upon consumers.

From gasbuddy.com report dated 8/3/22 -- IMPLIED GASOLINE DEMAND:
Gasoline supplied to the market amounted to 8.54 million barrels per day (MMbpd), or 704,000 bpd lower than the previous week. So far in 2022, implied demand (products supplied) is 0.4% lower versus 2021, per the EIA.

It would appear YTD (thru end July) demand had been running just slightly less than year 2021, BUT this very last week in July shows an 8.2% drop from previous week! That seems huge - if accurate.

Also, they report 8/3/22: The U.S. imported 7.34 MMbpd of crude oil per day last week, up by 1,178,000 bpd vs. the previous week, while crude oil exports fell by 1,036,000 bpd to 3.51 MMbpd. That's a 19% increase in imported oil! Plus a 23% decrease in exported oil! SPR still dropping daily. Good for lowering pump prices? Oh - yeah! Lets go Brandon!
Nashville 85 posts, incept 2018-02-27
2022-08-05 12:20:02

I thought this might be an interesting chart for today's discussion...



Tdurden 1k posts, incept 2015-01-29
2022-08-05 12:28:43

I'm still going to posit that there are no small number of jobs not being filled in Fortune 500 companies due to the incompetent and more than a bit politicized "Human Resource" departments practicing their DIE philosophy. My SIL saw it happen at his last company right after some Google clownette was brought into an executive position. All future software engineering hires HAD to be minorities. Qualifications be damned. But hey, it's just the banking records of millions of people at stake. SIL left for a better position shortly after that started.

This is one of my favorites I've seen. Taken from a job description for a senior level IT engineer at the enterprise level:
Quote:
"Based on your job application information you may be given the opportunity to complete a video interview immediately after applying. This will include a set of questions for you to record a response to in addition to Game Challenges. Completion of this video interview is a requirement in order to be considered for our open position. Now not a good time? No worries, we will also send you an email with a link to complete the video interview."

This company got into bed with an outfit called Hire View. The above required "video interview" isn't with a human being on a Zoom call. Doing so let them fire all of their people in HR who were doing applicant screening. They require you to record a dozen 2 to 3 minute videos (like TikTok) answering questions. Their software scores on things like tone and eye contact with the camera. ALL videos and data become the exclusive property of HireView.

That along with the "games" you have to play, I can't think of a more degrading experience for an experienced enterprise level senior engineer. I'm told by people who know that they have received zero applications for an entire year. HR clowns believe that they just need a better job descriptions. I'm also told it's the same deal for field and data center tech positions.

----------
"I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next 10 generations that some favors come with too high of a price." -Vir Cotto Babylon 5
Joedirt11 13 posts, incept 2022-07-08
2022-08-05 12:53:55

@Cwatson1982, there was an article about the supposed "demand destruction" in gasoline yesterday. A few people think the administration is fudging the numbers (imagine that) to bring down the price. Doesn't make sense during one of the biggest travel months during the summer. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ve....

Off topic but nice to see DeSantis growing bolder: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/desa....
Whitehat 9k posts, incept 2017-06-27
2022-08-05 12:54:54

@Tdurden -- "This company got into bed with an outfit called Hire View. The above required "video interview" isn't with a human being on a Zoom call. Doing so let them fire all of their people in HR who were doing applicant screening. They require you to record a dozen 2 to 3 minute videos (like TikTok) answering questions. Their software scores on things like tone and eye contact with the camera. ALL videos and data become the exclusive property of HireView."

Did you ever notice that all of those dystopian films of the early moving picture days up until the early 80s are really not made anymore except for a few noteworthy blockbusters which formed a kind of climax during the last days of "big" Hollywood?

Simple, it is not fantasy but reality, and people do not need to wonder anymore or fear what they feel coming as a relief.

They merely have to look out their window and at all of the things around them and being imposed upon them.

Human psychology works this way. Cannot sell what people already have.

So, what is coming? Answer: What's on the screens and TV?

----------
smiley Je souhaite
Cwatson1982 222 posts, incept 2017-05-07
2022-08-05 13:03:26

re: Gas demand

https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/1....

https://................/article/4529321....
Inline
Tickerguy 186k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-08-05 13:05:47

GasBuddy CAN'T actually capture retail sales unless they have an UNDISCLOSED back channel API to the retailers. If they do why do they want price reports from users at all, since they know EXACT dollars and GALLONS delivered.

Never mind that if they're LYING about how they get their data (user reports) that's actionable fraud.

C'mon, cut the bullshit.

Another quite-reasonable explanation: When prices surge more people will use their app, ergo, the transactions captured by their data stream go up as a percentage of the whole.

----------
The law of scoreboards is not subject to repeal.
Fuck around and find out.
New business: Karl's Guillotine sales and repair; you slice 'em, we dice 'em.

Greenacr 585 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2022-08-05 13:15:22

Regarding Gas Demand Destruction. It seems simple to me. The amount I drive is a partially controllable expense. Food as well but less so. Rent/utilities/taxes not a chance. People are not keeping up as Karl notes from an hourly/weekly earnings standpoint.

Regarding Demand Destruction. I have it from a first-person source that Whirlpool in Findlay, Ohio has seen better than a 20 percent drop in demand for its Dishwashers manufactured at that plant and is in the process of taking assembly lines out of production with layoffs in the future. Whirlpool's warehouses are almost 70% full of product and retail demand is cratering. Similar, but smaller, than the automotive industry, Whirlpool has a lot of suppliers in its supply chain. This will begin to ripple through the economy.
Blue.ridge.steve 787 posts, incept 2013-02-02
2022-08-05 13:23:56

Go back to the other recent job data and it doesn't look good. Quits and openings have both leveled off and began turning over in the last few months. Both of those heading south have historically preceded recession. The job losses come after.

A slow rolling train wreck, but it keeps rolling on.
Cwatson1982 222 posts, incept 2017-05-07
2022-08-05 13:48:51

@tg they have their own rewards/payment card. Works at the pump like a credit card and payment comes from whatever credit/debit card you link to it. So yes, between their price per gallon data collection + their card they can collect said demand data.
Tickerguy 186k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-08-05 13:50:09

Bullshit @Cwatson1982; once again the demand for their "product" rises precipitously when prices go up, and they have NO WAY to adjust for the percentage of total sales UNLESS THEY HAVE A BACK-CHANNEL API.

Simply put their demand is inversely price-sensitive; their entire MODEL is to "save money on gas" which, when prices are low, most people don't give a shit.

I used their app on the way out and back from Wyoming and STILL DO once in a while now. Last year on a nearly-identical run to Yellowstone in terms of mileage, in the truck too? Never opened the app once. I didn't give a fuck.

----------
The law of scoreboards is not subject to repeal.
Fuck around and find out.
New business: Karl's Guillotine sales and repair; you slice 'em, we dice 'em.

Thombradley 194 posts, incept 2021-11-01
2022-08-05 16:26:35

This is strictly anecdotal but here in AZ when I moved here 6 plus years ago you literally couldn't find a doctor or a dentist that would take new patients and if they did you received an appt WEEKS in the future. Now Im besieged with e mails which, condensed, basically say we love you book an appt or you overdue for a checkup cleaning etc. Same with my vet. When i called and said my dog is vomiting and crapping everywhere I got we can see you next month. So my take is people are deferring any expense they can and service providers are feeling the pinch.
Cwatson1982 222 posts, incept 2017-05-07
2022-08-05 16:26:44

@TG

Since their data collection is purely based on using their payment card at the pump and does not require any interaction with their app at all ("According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy card"), I am not sure why someone who signed up for it would suddenly stop using it?

Being surrounded by poor people my entire life, I don't any who don't use their rewards programs regardless of gas prices, most of which are a lot more hassle than simply swiping a payment card. It's not a percentage discount, so the savings is the same whether it's $2 or 10$.

You could argue that during periods of high prices more people sign up for the card but that's not particularly difficult to adjust for.

Regardless, weekly EIA data is no better, being that it is modeled, not entirely measured data.

Further, EIA monthly and weekly implied diverged in Feb, with monthly being significantly to the upside (with a growing gap) AND as of May (most recent) miles driven has been up every month this year compared to same month in 2021.

So there are multiple data points implying the weekly EIA gasoline and oil demand reports have been at best questionable. Their own refinery, inventory and export data bear that out. As I said, if exports are down, refinery output is dead center on the 1 year average and stockpiles are dropping; where is the gas going?

Do I think demand is falling? probably; falling off a cliff? nope. Do I put it past a 3 letter agency headed by a Biden appointee to fudge weekly numbers pre-midterms and revise later when it has no effect on futures prices? Nope.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2022-08-05 16:27:13

Gasoline demand is easy, When you are out of money, you are done driving. Week to week supplies have always been varied. When I checked inventoies in the past they included the strategic reserve. I doubt gas buddy is a reliable source of anything other than prices. Despit a one or 2 day spike, Oil pretty much topped at $110, meaning 50 cents of the recent price reduction has been because of crude. The rest is refiners. Based on my prior observations, gasoline here should be a little over $3, which isn't abnormal for late summer.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Cwatson1982 222 posts, incept 2017-05-07
2022-08-05 16:27:22

Really the number of users of the payment card is irrelevant. So long as there is enough market saturation. You are just figuring out the number of gallons purchased per active card user on average and then extrapolating, you can even limit your analysis to regular users, exclude new ones or do any number of things to limit impacts of a fluctuating user base.
Burya_rubenstein 2k posts, incept 2007-08-08
2022-08-05 16:27:27

I don't use Gasbuddy's "app". I go to a web page specific to the Detroit area with Firefox, and check the low price list by city for select cities in my area or near trajectory for where I'm already planning to go to find the low bid. And I make my decision of when and how much to buy based on the derivative and when that goes positive. I can usually catch the low bid before they jack the price IF I can react quickly enough and if the data is fairly recent'.
Indianarube 699 posts, incept 2020-03-22
2022-08-05 16:27:30

I could go for some gasoline demand destruction around Chicago. Driving in this shit sucks.
Inline
Twainfan2 906 posts, incept 2018-12-04
2022-08-05 16:27:35

How can gas buddy collect data on people who don't use their app/service? You're only looking at a very small segment of the entire population. I would not count on their data being even remotely accurate.
Dingleberry 468 posts, incept 2011-11-06
2022-08-05 16:27:43

Rate increases incoming, and massively so.

Not so sure about the rolloff of trash on the Fed's books (i.e. QT), but still, rate increases are guaranteed.

In my lifetime of watching the Fed, and I recognize my economic limitations, but I can sum it all up thusly:

The Fed does not care about inflation EXCEPT for wage inflation. You have seen parabolic increases in RE, stocks, even "hedonic adjustments" and other ways of massaging prices (down of course).

But the one thing that will cause them nightmares is wages. In other words, the rich (who own most of the assets) get richer...and once wages start to rise.....BOOM!

Where I live.....a grocery bagger would make about 10-11 bucks an hour pre-lockdown.

Those same baggers now get paid 16-17 bucks an hour. And that's if the store can find them.

Do the maff. And know what the fed WILL do, and prepare yourselves accordingly.


Tickerguy 186k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-08-05 16:29:10

Anyone who believes anything some "social" app puts forward, especially when they do affiliate "marketing" (and worse, PAYMENTS) should contemplate whether their IQ is the reason for the "DO NOT DRINK!" warning on a bottle of DRANO.

----------
The law of scoreboards is not subject to repeal.
Fuck around and find out.
New business: Karl's Guillotine sales and repair; you slice 'em, we dice 'em.
Ihsmta 779 posts, incept 2008-04-10
2022-08-05 16:31:12

@Greenacr... Relayed your info on Whirlpool to my BIL who is in upper management at the largest appliance retailer in his state. He calls BS. Says supply chain issues and availability of product are still his biggest headache...right after employee shortages.

----------
"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality." Ayn Rand
Eleua 20k posts, incept 2007-07-05
2022-08-05 16:37:51

Wife wants to pay off the house. I just checked out the 13wk T Bill and it is 2.4%. Our note is 2.25 fixed out to 2050.

Correct me if I am wrong, but 13wks is more like a savings account, and if that "savings" account is getting more than I am losing on interest (granted, taxes on the earnings take that down, probably below par), why not just roll liquid cash through TBills and use the proceeds to pay down the house? What little difference will likely not be much, especially if the T complex keeps going higher (rates). That way, I keep the cash, stay nimble, and pay down the house.

Essentially, I've "paid it off" without actually paying it off.

Thoughts?

----------
Diversity + proximity = WAR
We are governed by sexual degenerates, Satanists, traitors, retards, cowards, sociopaths, and megalomaniacs - CHANGE MY MIND
That kind of sums up the last month since the election, a giant amber alert for Trump's balls. - Davkj1
Ihsmta 779 posts, incept 2008-04-10
2022-08-05 16:47:25

Another comment on "demand destruction". I just don't see it.

Along with two friends, from June 27th through July 19th we rode motorcycle 9,000 miles through British Columbia and Yukon Territory, along the AlCan Highway to Homer, Alaska and back. We spent at least an hour every night trying to book motel rooms at least two nights forward. If we didn't, we'd have been SOL.

Fuel? We run 91+ octane (dual sport/adventure bikes) paying up to $7.50/gal adjusted for the exchange rate. In Kolowna and Kamloops, BC there were actually places that the only available fuel was 91 octane or great as lesser octanes were "unavailable". At Dease Lake, BC we waited in line to get fuel.

The Whitefish and Kalispell areas of MT were PACKED assholes to elbows.

I live along I-90 and will be watching to see if the inflation/gas prices affect the Sturgis Rally attendance which formally opens this weekend.

----------
"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality." Ayn Rand
Tickerguy 186k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-08-05 16:48:02

Well, I can tell you around here the demand destruction as measured in traffic levels is VERY real and has been since around the 4th of July weekend.

----------
The law of scoreboards is not subject to repeal.
Fuck around and find out.
New business: Karl's Guillotine sales and repair; you slice 'em, we dice 'em.
Whossane 227 posts, incept 2018-01-25
2022-08-05 17:12:43

From the EIA historical data, excluding 2020, it looks like demand is down about 10%.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/GenericErrorPag....



Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Page 2 of 3  First123Last