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 Market Has Best Month!
Tickerguy 186k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-08-01 22:38:15

Of course they'll react @Neal.

The bottom line is that EVENTUALLY you have to stop emitting credit that cannot be absorbed. We've "cheated" for ~30 years in that our export/import balance permitted it. That's gone. The Russian Sanctions destroyed it, and it will not come back.

Therefore that has to stop. It doesn't matter if Congress likes it or not, ergo, they may as well do what they can to manage cash flow -- which means making the tax situation "best" for us, and to Hell with everyone else.

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The law of scoreboards is not subject to repeal.
Fuck around and find out.
New business: Karl's Guillotine sales and repair; you slice 'em, we dice 'em.
Neal 180 posts, incept 2014-01-09
2022-08-01 22:51:34

Mannfm11, your US tax rates in 1954 were bad. Could have been worse. The Beatles in 1965 wrote the song Mr Taxman as a protest about the 95 % tax rate. It was worse during WW2 with a 99.75 tax rate. Then when you sent the money there were taxes on many goods at 100% and then when you died your death tax took 40%. Any wonder so many Brits went into tax exile.
Guerin 96 posts, incept 2021-09-26
2022-08-02 08:35:26

Amusingly, despite the market having a nice July, the lovely 401K plan my employer has contracted with managed to have only 1 fund out of the 38 offered that actually saw an increase in value in July. That one fund? The fixed account, which managed 0.08%. Everything else lost at least 1.5%, most lost considerably more. Strongly considering a move into the "fixed account", although I have to ask the advisors about that because unsurprisingly that fund has transfer-out restrictions.

My more market-invested boss has asked why I never bothered with a Roth. My explanation to him is that I have never trusted that the government would not change the tax rules on Roths before I would get to withdraw the funds, so I take the tax break now that's a lock over a theoretical break I might get 25-30 years from now.
Jlysjm 12 posts, incept 2022-06-24
2022-08-02 08:35:38

short covering rallies in a bear market can feel good temporarily....but the rat******* will resume when the options are cleared, i think. If not then we still have a lot of pain to face going forward
Prof_dilligaf 343 posts, incept 2021-09-02
2022-08-02 08:35:45

"The Fed can remedy it without collapsing Treasury"

Then why is Powell being such a pussy about jacking up the rate?



"Unless I am mistaken, the Fed's charter, which is law, mandates stable prices and full employment."

How quaint, a belief in the rule of law.
Tickerguy 186k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-08-02 08:38:40

@Prof_dilligaf -
Quote:
Then why is Powell being such a pussy about jacking up the rate?

He knows damn well it will blow up the stock market and the overlevered corporates will blow up too -- and there are a lot of them.

He THINKS (he's wrong) that he can "find the corner" and believes Volcker went too far -- that is, beyond what was necessary. He's wrong on both counts. Chief (from Stocks and Jocks) thinks the latter too, but he's wrong.

Volcker in fact did not go FAST ENOUGH. The recession we took was not speculative; it was absolutely guaranteed to occur. There was no way around it. So is this one; there is NO WAY around it. The sooner we take it the faster we will recover. The slower they go the longer it takes.

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The law of scoreboards is not subject to repeal.
Fuck around and find out.
New business: Karl's Guillotine sales and repair; you slice 'em, we dice 'em.
Flappingeagle 4k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2022-08-02 09:38:09

Quote:
the overlevered corporates will blow up too


Absolutely. When you are a high-level exec your "long-term" is 5 to 10 years unless you really want to stick around. Therefore, you manage the company to maximize your wealth which usually means you sacrifice the real long-term (10 years and onward) in favor of a payday for yourself.

Setup a juicy stock-option plan and then lever the company to hell and back to make the stock price jump? Sure.

Let someone else hold the empty bag? Sure. Never forget this vital piece of information: The role of the little guy is to be the empty bag holder.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Sonoran_monk 615 posts, incept 2021-08-16
2022-08-02 12:33:39

In other words, the market wins the tallest midget award.

What's going on with the repo market? It seems that the reverse repo operations are still trending upward.
34werx 116 posts, incept 2020-11-29
2022-08-02 17:07:36

@Guerin:
Quote:
Amusingly, despite the market having a nice July, the lovely 401K plan my employer has contracted with managed to have only 1 fund out of the 38 offered that actually saw an increase in value in July.


401k- you are limited to a few weak options while your boss gets thousands. Nice arrangement if you can get it!
Calrissian 103 posts, incept 2021-04-12
2022-08-02 19:33:56

Let them all burn to death.
--

Such sweet words. I love it!

I have to wonder how much of London will burn this winter, during the blackouts... as seem inevitable. There are so many increasingly crazy people here... ready to burn it all to the ground.

yours... with a front row seat.
Bluto 1k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2022-08-02 21:30:23

After the recent pounding on the 10-year yield, I was beginning to think I might be wrong and we are headed to sub-2% on the 10-year note. But today had a big move up in yield.

Still think the "high yields have to come to stop the inflation" is what is likely to happen (because it has to), but I am also surprised how the powers that be have been able to hold this together since 2008.

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The God who gave us life, gave us liberty at the same time; the hand of force may destroy, but cannot disjoin them. Thomas Jefferson
Guerin 96 posts, incept 2021-09-26
2022-08-02 21:37:16

@34werx

The boss and I talk fairly often, nothing sinister should be implied because he had the smarts to ignore managed 401K plans and make his own independent decisions. He's a fairly straight shooter and the rough equivalent of being the cranky corporate uncle. The day he retires will be tough, he knows a lot, has forgotten little, and I can't stick his head in a jar to keep that institutional knowledge around forever.
Tdurden 1k posts, incept 2015-01-29
2022-08-02 22:38:50

@Flappingeagle:
Quote:
When you are a high-level exec your "long-term" is 5 to 10 years unless you really want to stick around. Therefore, you manage the company to maximize your wealth which usually means you sacrifice the real long-term (10 years and onward) in favor of a payday for yourself.
Some of these bandits don't even care about the appearance of if not illegal, really bad optics of their grift. Even ones at the top. Take the CEO where I work. January of the year him and his posse pulled a boardroom coup, taking over the company that just bought them. Right away he sells off a large block of stock. Company flounders around all year. So in January of the following year, he announces (with a heavy heart, of course) that his first year at the helm was so challenging they had to cut the dividend in half. The stock gets knee-capped in the following days. About two weeks later he repurchases the entire block of stock he sold a year earlier at a steep discount, taking over $1M off the table. The shithead even bragged about making that big buy because he really believed in the company's future. Of course that new found confidence didn't come around BEFORE cutting the dividend. No, that came just after, re-buying his position into the forced selling by leveraged longs and maybe pension funds and other outfits that invest for yield. I'm sure he got the legal department's blessing, but it's still a bad look.

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"I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next 10 generations that some favors come with too high of a price." -Vir Cotto Babylon 5
Xqqme 1k posts, incept 2009-01-09
2022-08-03 19:43:42

"I don't feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough... I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don't find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough."
Tweet by SF Fed President Mary Daly who makes $427K annually.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2022-08-04 07:54:53

@Xqqme: $427K is what she gets above the table. She is probably drawing 5 pensions. That is only a lot of money, if she doesn't pretend she is rich. $25K after tax per month. That's the annual tax on the house such a persn is likely to have here. I would hate to exist on $30K a year before taxes, like a lot of people do. THe steaks in my freezer would be hamburger and pork chops. You can eat on $150 a month, but who wants to? The rent on a slum here is $1200 plus electric. You drive a car you hope you can save up enough to buy another before it craps out, if you drive at all. I have lived broke. I don't like it. I don't believe I would be sweating the price of food or gas on a salary like that, but the typical American that makes that much money is just as in hock as the peons. That won't pay the rent on a decent apartment in NYC, at least not where a Fed official would live.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2022-08-04 07:55:54

@Tdurden: When it blows, it will happen so suddenly that no one saw it coming will be the excuse. Somewhere around 8%, it becomes difficult to capitalize long term impr0vements. It moves the cost of everything forward. These bastards have been borrowing money they don't have to pay back to any real degree. A 2% inflation rate, according to my education was supposed to require a 5% risk free rate. Someone has been getting robbed and these execs have put it in their pockets. If this is real inflation, like the 70's bond rates will have to increase significantly. 3% we see now is for zero inflation.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tdurden 1k posts, incept 2015-01-29
2022-08-04 12:12:37

That haggard old shrew at the SF Fed is right up there with that asshole Bill Dudley, who back in the summer of 2019 said publicly that the Fed had a duty to use it's power to wreck the economy to prevent Trump from being re-elected. He was no garden variety board member. He was head of the NY Fed, which is the head of the snake, so to speak. That clown should have been chased down and tarred and feathered for saying something that stupid. The fact that he wasn't is why the bitch San Fran isn't going to suffer any consequences for her "Let the eat cake" moment.

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"I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next 10 generations that some favors come with too high of a price." -Vir Cotto Babylon 5
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