The Market Ticker
Rss Icon RSS available
Fact: There is no immunity or protection against The Law of Scoreboards.
Did you know: What the media does NOT want you to read is at https://market-ticker.org/nad.
You are not signed on; if you are a visitor please register for a free account!
Comments on Don't Fear The Recession
User: Not logged on
Top Forum Top Login FAQ Register Clear Cookie
Showing Page 3 of 4  First1234Last
User Info Don't Fear The Recession in forum [Market-Ticker]
Wakeupcall
Posts: 7726
Incept: 2009-06-08

Hampton Roads, VA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I welcome it as well. We have no debt, so no major worries. The only fear I have is severe or hyper inflation. Then we are screwed.

I am also a bit worried about the supply chain. I guess I am just accustomed to buying what I want and getting it immediately, not in 4-6 weeks. No big deal if one is buying knick knacks. But if you need a car? Or new refrigerator? Or a new well pump? Not a pretty picture.

----------
"Pfuck Pfizer
"The strongest memory is weaker than the palest ink" Chinese proverb
"The enemy of my enemy is my candidate" Random commenter
"We have the government we deserve"
Mannfm11
Posts: 8226
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The other question is how long will it take to turn inflation into deflation? There was real demand and relatively low debt, compared to today in the 1970's. The lower the rate on a capital instrument, the greater the loss from adjustment of yields. Hence a move from 1% to 2% implies a greater loss than moving from 8% to 9%. Higher rates move the discounted costs foreward. Do the discounts. I used to play with these formulas for hours.

There can be no effective bond market without a real return. Adjustment to even a real rate to recognize a 2% inflation rate, discounts a 3% bond (10YR from 3% to 5%)about 18%. This is a top of my head estimate, so don't hold me to an exact. That factor also enters into stocks, the value of real estate leases and all financial assets. Stocks have to recognize eternity discounts, because expiration is liquidation. Implied inflation has to eventually be recognized. Financial assets have enjoyed a free ride for over a decade and markets have not held up to a real interest rate since the 1990's. There are a lot of investments look good at near zero that don't pay at 6%

One only need look to Japan to see how a modern bubble collapse looks. It took nearly 20 years to liquidate that, despite ridiculous government action. They didn't think it could happen. Japan index is about 2/3rds of its 1990 peak.

I'm listening to Biden right now. You can't be in the oil business, without lease inventory. Biden is lying or stupid. Throw ignorance into the mix, a given for the past 2 decades and you have exhaustion. 9000 leases feeds US oil for about 1 year, then what? When does stimulous do no good?

I recall the government sending everyone $200 in 2008. It vaporized. When the last stimulous wears off, it won't be recognized until what they throw in vaporizes again. You can't have a battle against inflation without higher discounts. The pile of financial assets is a large multiple of GDP, something we have never faced before. Give everyone's retirement a 40% haircut, there will be a reconcilliation.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Frat
Posts: 10822
Incept: 2009-07-15
Avatar

NKY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Invisiblesun wrote..
The so called worse since the Great Depression. I never missed a day of work. Neither did my wife. It seemed everyone who wanted a job had one.


To be fair, there were NOT jobs then like now. I lost mine in May 2009 - and I definitely bear some of that, even though they wanted an excuse to hire "within the church" - and it took me 11 months to find something even 2/3 what I had been making previously. I took the first job that paid more than funemployment and was promoted to manager in 6 months, and stayed there for 9 years. Jobs WERE scarce, at least in my area, making more than minimum wage unless you wanted to do fast food restaurant management (hint: I didn't).

Granted, jobs will start becoming more scarce as this clusterfuck unfolds, but between the jabs killing people off and the fact we can't hire enough now, the employment situation for folks who can both think AND WORK will be much different this time around. My current job pays very well, and while not recession-proof, definitely lends to a better-than-average chance of me keeping it... As long as the accounts stay competitive.

Anyone who wants a job RIGHT NOW, or hell, 2 or 3 of them for that matter, can not only find them but will be getting paid the market rate. Even mediocre people are hard to find... If you're even worth a tiny bit, you are secure. The problem is that most people aren't.

----------
We're fucked. There will be no happy ending here; there is no going back to 'normal.'. There are only bad outcomes and worse outcomes. And we don't get to choose those, either.
Rporth
Posts: 90
Incept: 2016-09-28

North Dakota
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Wakeupcall

On the larger items, it may be prudent to pre-purchase and store... of course your crystal ball needs to be pretty good as to what may be going out - and what you can get... Well pump? yes, probably, washer / dryer? maybe, maybe not. Refrigerator? Freezer? possibly... It sucks to think through all this.

=========
We are prepped - *ZERO* debt, houses paid for, cars/trucks paid for. Lots of food preps, guns,bullets and other. We've been prepping for a while and doing more.

Invested in a home freeze dryer - supposed to keep things fresh for 25 years (not a couple of years like canning).

Wife will start taking SS at her next Birthday - don't need it but we are going to start taking back from the Gov. I work for the county - great benefits and I do things that nobody can do (think IT Tech stuff) - looking at 5 years to retire, but could at any time. It is nice having the $$ coming in to prep. Savings accounts flush (but inflation killing it) 4,3,201Ks are still fine, although lost value - Good Lord has said don't worry about them so I'm not. That could mean a myriad of things though!

So we are doing things in our small community, enjoying life, and not really 'worrying' about things. It's now almost comical watching those in charge trying the same old tired 'solutions' that didn't work before, and trying those harder this time.

it is all planned.
Tappedout
Posts: 98
Incept: 2020-09-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Zappa: "I agree that the 1% tail risk scenarios aren't plannable for.

If it all goes to Hell like Sri Lanka, or Ecuador right now, your survival will be determined by random chance. Or fate, if you like. Unless you have already bugged out and have 3-4 years of provisions and a defensible perimeter."

Not plannable, I agree. And not worth spending time and money on, as our host wrote, if you falsely believe you can plan/predict.

But I happen to like spending time in the middle of nowhere. I bought a large piece of land with a small lake on it, on which I plan to retire. I've spent time and money on it because I love it. I've made it secure and defensible because it's in the middle of nowhere, and 911 does not exist. Could I make it there in a pinch? Maybe. Even if, it would always be a question of luck. I've survived long periods living like an animal. I've also pulled triggers on more than paper target silhouettes of men. But I'm still here out of pure luck. Not planning or skill.

But I don't agree with your assessment of 3-4 years. Most of the violent deaths would happen very fast, quickly to be outnumbered by deaths from waterborne illness, dehydration, and starvation in the that order.

Assuming someone like the Chinese don't choose to take the opportunity to invade, or someone otherwise starts pressing the buttons, things would start to stabilize within about a year, in line with whatever carrying capacity is then available. Probable? No. Possible? Remotely. Plannable? No way.



Thelazer
Posts: 1035
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The only thing left for us to do, sell all investment property's.
(note, the were all bought pre run-up)

Of course, it's a hot topic of daily discussion... Can't say I'm looking forward to the tax hit.
Tickerguy
Posts: 185089
Incept: 2007-06-26
Avatar
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
If you're on a well having a known good source for a second, working pump (which in a bad circumstance means you have it on-hand) is not really optional. No water is a serious problem.

No refer is a less-serious, but real problem. I have a "bar type" fridge that will work for refrigeration. Nowhere near the size of convenience, but it will work. That plus a working freezer means you can (with some inconvenience) weather not being able to immediately replace your main unit.

When I bought this place it took about a week for the refer I bought to be delivered. Was it ideal using the bar-size one? No, but it worked. There you go.

Rate the consequence for not being able to fix or replace <X> and then plan accordingly. There are only a few things that are immediate "oh oh" sorts of events, and those can be covered. The others may be serious inconveniences but won't make you dead.

----------
Civil Society requires 99%+ consent.
Stop consenting and it is forced to stop. Always.
No violence required.

Riceday
Posts: 997
Incept: 2009-10-30

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The growing degeneracy and entitlement tempers my expectations of a short-lived recession and recovery. When(If) lifestyles revert to 1920s or even the 1950s due to supply and grid troubles, that will be a major shock. And you're right, the degenerates in charge are well aware of the situation. What will they be willing to do to retain power? What deals have they made?

3-market-thinker
Posts: 29
Incept: 2022-02-06
Avatar

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think you maybe proved correct in this playing out slowly.

I was thinking lately how the Fed has managed so far to influence a 20% decline or so in the stock market very well.

I have never complimented them ever before until now as their policies were disgusting from bailing out greedy, corrupt insolvent and incompetent entities.

But this decline has been managed very well up to now. It has surprised me I must admit.

I am thinking however that there could still be a major, significant and sudden drop in the market over a few days which I believe would be followed by outright chaos.

But going by the delusion and confidence of people in the markets at the moment it seems we might get smaller percentage declines over a few years where many get fooled into buying the dips etc.

I think this would be the best outcome.

Let's hope the QT and rate rises continues and resources start to get allocated to efficient businesses and away from the crazy degenerate gambling avenues that has been the norm in the last 10 years (or even 20?).

We need to start producing in the West and need to invest in fossil fuels for our energy requirements whilst also requiring to move away from a debt based economy where house flippers and crypto gamblers make out like bandits whilst all hard working people suffer.

Otherwise the West is finished and the BRICS may as well stick a fork in us.
Wakeupcall
Posts: 7726
Incept: 2009-06-08

Hampton Roads, VA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The well is of particular concern Karl. I think the average life is 20 or so years, and we found no paperwork showng a replaced pump. So I am thinking ours is 35 years.

I am goong to call about that right now.


----------
"Pfuck Pfizer
"The strongest memory is weaker than the palest ink" Chinese proverb
"The enemy of my enemy is my candidate" Random commenter
"We have the government we deserve"
Misemeout
Posts: 6
Incept: 2021-09-12

Salt Lake
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The fools have remained liquid for decades longer than they should have been able to. They think personal consequences are a thing of the past and they'll have government to bail them out again. Not this time.
Bjonsson
Posts: 1786
Incept: 2010-03-10
Avatar

The LBC
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
It is the clowns that worry me the most. I have never seen such rank incompetence or outright evil in our government in my 55 years on this planet. The first thing that needs to change is the morons in DC.

My personal and unscientific opinion is that this is bigger than DC. The DC crowd are just paid whores. Same with the EU, which I think is just a subsidiary of the Dollar system. I actually think Europe's issues are slightly more immediate than ours.

Quote:
I suppose the good news is, as bad as things are in the US, they are worse in Europe, Latin America and Japan. Although Japan may hold together better due to their culture and eastern emphasis on group harmony.

Latin America might have a crap record in managing their banking and currencies, but there are some countries down there that are less levered than us. And, on a ground level, "Main Street" economies, they have shorter, less complex supply chains for distributing goods, with fewer layers of financial fuckery to manipulate price discovery, and civil societies that are more resilient from having experience in dealing with situations like this. As an example, here in the more populated areas of the US, "farmers markets" are boutique affairs. Down there, its still somewhat a way of life, even in some of the cities. I am NOT saying that they'll get off any better, and they have a baseline standard of living below ours... but I wouldn't assume they'll do worse.

----------
"If you don't have borders... if you don't have laws... you don't have a country."
Lazydaizy316
Posts: 201
Incept: 2016-10-21
Avatar

Ontario, Kanukistan
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
smiley


----------
God is great!
Beer is good!
And people are stupid!
Winesorbet
Posts: 483
Incept: 2010-08-23

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Nice day on the market. Guess I'm not the only one smoking the crack pipe
Zappafan
Posts: 6496
Incept: 2007-11-30
Avatar

Atlanta
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Bjonsson - good point on LatAm. I have some experience, having family in Ecuador. I have visited that country maybe 10x.

They are starting a much lower standard of living and have a shorter distance to fall. What concerns me is how the average Karen or soy-boi reacts when there is no food or gas here. Or rationing hits. I suppose I should take the long view and look at it as self-correcting. Moar excess mortality.


----------
We're Sargeant Ponzi's lonely hearts club band
We hope you have enjoyed the pump
Sargeant Ponzi's lonely hearts club band
Don't think you will enjoy the dump!
Rangeishot
Posts: 299
Incept: 2021-11-18
Avatar

FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Just read this... smiley

Quote:
As I said, theyve painted themselves into a corner. In effect, they jumped off the top of a hundred-story building when the Fed was formed in 1913. Now weve fallen 95 floors, with only a couple to go, and have reached terminal velocity. Meanwhile, idiots like Yellen and Powell are saying, So far, so good. We havent hit the ground yet, but were quite close. The chances of a soft landing are zero.
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 2414
Incept: 2007-08-08
Avatar

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Only question is will it be a recession, or Depression? Prospects for the latter chills me to the bone.

Well,
Cheech wrote..
Depression, recession, repression, it's all the same thing.

But as far as fearing it, been there done that. And I say, What is the point of having a job/welfare/pension/capital-gain/ss/ubi to get money that doesn't BUY anything?

Money is a system of bookkeeping, not some sort of magical protomatter. Standard of living is all about stuff. Nothing else matters in the end.
Invisiblesun
Posts: 546
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Don't expect it to actually change the way the Blue states and cities run but right now the Supreme Court is taking Democrats to the woodshed. And the real crying by the Left hasn't even begun!

By the end of this month, Insurrection is going to become an acceptable activity, as the Left is going to be openly encouraging lawmakers to disregard the Supreme Court rulings.

Sraven
Posts: 61
Incept: 2010-07-29

Dallas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Marilynn Malerba to be first Native American treasurer of the U.S.

Malerba is the chief of the Mohegan Tribe, a lifetime appointment by the tribe's Council of Elders
Before she took on the role of chief, Malerba worked in tribal government as the executive director of tribal Health and Human Services.

She is a registered nurse.

And now is going to be Treasurer of the US.

We're saved.
Edward.fish
Posts: 243
Incept: 2021-12-17

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Invisiblesun wrote..
To paraphrase Mencken, Millennials and Gen-Z voted for stupid and now they are getting stupid good and hard. And as the mass layoffs begin, a great truth will be revealed.

@Invisiblesun -- Did they though? Do you REALLY think that they voted, in overwhelming numbers, for Joe Biden? If this is so, then you should NEVER bring up complaints about "the election was stolen." (OTOH, if you believe the election was stolen, you should shut your mouth and not ascribe that to Millennials and Gen-Z.)

Abelardlindsey wrote..
I agree with this 100%. The recession is needed to correct out all of the levered BS that has been built up over the years. The only issue is if they try to get us out of these one with another credit bubble just like they did with the previous two recessions (Tech crash and General Financial crash).

@Abelardlindsey -- Oh, they will ABSOLUTELY try to make the poor and/or working-class bail out the rich who have malinvested: that's what we've seen from the post-9/11 airlines to the "mortage-backed securities" to the 2020 shutdowns.

Zappafan wrote..
The middle class are going to get squeezed to the point where they may have nothing to lose by shooting the current governmental clowns.

@Zappafan -- Now that line is a very interesting one, and arguably already passed with things like civil-asset forfeiture and Kelo v New London being "good law".

Quote:
the Fed is out of road to kick the can.

Yes, but what matters is if they believe that. (For literally all their lives they have ALWAYS been able to kick the can, they may well have forgotten how to do anything BUT kick the can.)
Thombradley
Posts: 182
Incept: 2021-11-01

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
JoanC 12 to 18 months of food squirrelled away Really? You must live alone or be GERBIL. one year of food at 2000 calories for one person is roughly three quarters of a million calories. A five pound bag of rice is worth about 8000 calories. Doing the math again roughly you would need about 475 pounds of just rice. for a year. good luck keeping the vermin away from that unless you go with brown rice, airtight containers, industrial freezers etc. Doable but I doubt you are that prepped.

Beans aren't much better caloric density wise but you get protein. Nuts, dried fruits OK they store well Two or more people you are with, do the math. Then if your anticipation of armegeddon is off> Are you rotating your stock? you better live in a hermetically sealed bunker somewhere. Grains are prone to nasty toxins when moisture gets in. Ask any farmer especially corn. You should figure on a 25 % spoilage or you could lose your whole hoard. Oils go rancid forget butter. I guess you could have cornered the market on MRE's

Then you have to cook it add the occasional varmint you could toss in or the odd fish. No way you last 18 months without a lot of 9 MM or better.
Geterdone
Posts: 261
Incept: 2007-07-14

N. E. Indiana
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Maybe she's the only one who would accept the job

----------
If there was a "FREE HANGING" and you kept the rope, there would be a line.
Edward.fish
Posts: 243
Incept: 2021-12-17

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mannfm11 wrote..
There has been no effective bond market for years.

@Mannfm11, @Tickerguy -- IIRC/IIUC, this is because of the (circa 2008?) GM bankruptcy, wherein the courts voided bondholders in order to pay out to a certain class of stock holders. (This undermined the LONG tradition of having bonds more secure than stocks.)
Flyover
Posts: 23
Incept: 2021-08-27

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Thombradley, It's totally possible to have a years worth of food stored. We had 3 kids, and the ex's 3 kids came for the entire summer so we were feeding 8 people for 4 months, feeding 5 the rest of the year, and every year by late fall we had a year's worth of food frozen, canned, dehydrated or stored in the root cellar, the only things we bought at the store were smokes, soda, a small amount of sugar, and fruit for canning that we couldn't grow reliably due to climate (peaches and pears). Living in the country, most folks were the same way. If a blizzard hit and nobody could get out for a week or two, it was all good, everyone had food, water, kerosene lamps and a woodstove. Chickens, turkeys, hogs, and a steer in the freezer, all home grown. By the time the garden started producing again in the spring the freezer/pantry was emptying out so stock was always rotated.

I see comments about making friends with the local farmers. 30 or 40 years ago, that would have been good advice. Now days, many if not most of the farmers around me don't even have gardens, nor do they produce a variety of things, it's all specialized. They either have 6000 acres of GMO corn or soybeans, or have several 2000 head hog barns, or 50,000 laying hens or broilers, or like the new dairy farmer near my one daughter who has 5000 cows in one barn, another 5000 head in a barn a mile north and a third barn under construction. These folks aren't selling to the locals.
Indianarube
Posts: 603
Incept: 2020-03-22

NW Indiana
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Marilynn Malerba to be first Native American treasurer of the U.S.

Malerba is the chief of the Mohegan Tribe, a lifetime appointment by the tribe's Council of Elders
I know nothing of Native American customs and culture, so my ignorance may be showing, but how in the hell did a squaw become Chief?
We really DO live in clown world. 🤡 🌎
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 3 of 4  First1234Last