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2022-06-22 11:00 by Karl Denninger
in Environment , 834 references Ignore this thread
Sorry, But No (Western Weather)
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This is flat-out bullshit.

"We're definitely looking at a hotter future," Katrina Bennett, hydrologist with the lab and lead author of the study, told CNN. "There will be more of that wet to dry sort of scenarios we're seeing, but regardless, we're going to see more minimum streamflow, increase in drier soils and lower snowpacks, which all together will lead to likelihood of drought increasing across the board especially in the upper areas where we really haven't seen that intense drought stress yet."

Meh.

Yes, Yellowstone's flooding is bad.

But I was just out that way.  What I saw was.... astounding.

On the western side of the Teton pass headed to Idaho Falls the road more-or-less follows the Snake River as it meanders around.  I was stunned by what I saw -- houses upon houses all built in what was obvious flood plain.  The land was close to the river, flat and part of the historical flood boundary, which is clear if you just look at it from a slightly-elevated vantage point (the road); you need no special training or education to see it.  That land is quite-fertile for the same reason the land around the Mississippi River is -- it gets flooded periodically and that refreshes the soil.

The older housing stock and older commercial construction was safely away from that -- above it, and on clear land above the flood-space ridge.  The  people who built those places knew how to look at the land and say "uh, that would be nice to have a house right on the river but if we're stupid enough to do that it will either be flushed downstream eventually or we'll have 2' of nasty, muddy water in our living room."

Oh, you say, but its so awful further south?  Oh c'mon -- quit the bullshit.

Have a look at Wolf Creek Ski area.

"Globull Warming" has caused their snow deposition to drop eh?  Really?  Their long-term average is 400 inches a year of snow. Yeah, that's a lot of snow.  But what was it this year?  385".  Statistically-speaking, right on the money.

Fresh water that falls from the sky is not an inexhaustible resource.  Yes, it will be replenished.  But if you draw it faster than it comes down from the sky over time you will run out.  California has quadrupled in population since 1950, roughly.  Nevada has had its population explode by a factor of roughly 20 over the same period of time.  Arizona had about 750,000 residents in 1950 and today sports over 7.5 million, an expansion of about ten times.

Hoover Dam was completed in 1936 and the snowfall and land area from which Lake Mead collects water has not increased by one square foot since, obviously, while the number of people who think they can just come out there and draw on an inexhaustible resource has skyrocketed.

Folks this is not "climate change", its people overwhelming a fixed resource.  No small part of those people are illegal immigrants and the spawn they dropped out after coming here too, so our policy of "open door anywhere, come and rape our land" is and has been for decades bringing ruin.

The southwest is full of desert.  Drive around out there and you will see all manner of scrub and other material that is characteristic of land that sometimes receives rainfall but on an infrequent and relatively dispersed basis.  The vegetation in an area tells you what you're dealing with when it comes to the long-term rainfall patterns and how much water you can realistically extract from same without running into depletion problems.  Simply put when you toss 10 or 20x as many people on a given area of land without concern for such things you're asking to get it up the ass, and now those people who did that are.

We issue building permits to corporations that put up this and that without a single care in the world about forcing them to fund the development of resources necessary for said people that they will then sell same to -- and nobody gets prosecuted for fraud either, as they damn well should building at a capacity they know is well beyond the carrying capacity of the land.

I'm not talking about the ongoing maintenance and upkeep cost; that's paid for by user fees and property taxes -- no, the capital cost to increase capacity is never assessed in impact fees and the screaming is always that "if we did that they'd go somewhere else."

Good!  Let them ruin someone else's part of the country!

I fought this repeatedly when I lived in the Panhandle and always lost, but refused to shut up about it regardless.  You want to put up another condo?  Fine.  Pay an impact fee that covers the increased road capacity construction and utility build-out necessary to serve the people who come when you're done, and do it up front.  No?  GTFO.

That is where the entire problem lies.

If Nevada, Arizona and California had decided (one or all) to force the payment of impact fees to fund the construction of desalination plants for said residential and commercial expansion there would be no problem with Lake Mead or anywhere else.  There is plenty of water off California, of course, but its salty.  But -- they didn't, instead believing that Lake Mead and its feeds and downstream were inexhaustible irrespective of putting ten times or more the user load that was formerly there on said watershed.  The same is true for electrical infrastructure; it's fine to expect the bill to cover the maintenance of same, just as property taxes should over time, but not the construction which has to take place before the people show up.

These impacts are not due to "globull" anything.  That infamous house that washed into the river near Yellowstone was stupidly build right in a riverbank on land that is clearly part of where the river carved, and might again since it did before.  Well, it did.  Big shock, right?

Just wait for the whining when the Snake River blows into its historical flood plain and all those couple of million dollar places I saw have two feet of water in their lower level or are washed off their foundations by the swift water and completely destroyed.  We'll hear the whining, I'm sure -- when the real problem is that the people who built them there were stupid.

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Bagbalm
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Same thing when I was a kid in North Carolina in the early 60s nobody would build more than a tar paper fishing shack on Emerald Isle. The locals all knew one big storm could flush it away. Worse, a big hurricane could fill a channel and cut a new one right where your property used to be.
I went back two years ago and there is one million or two million dollar house jammed tight together down the whole island. Federal insurance encouraged them to build but insurance becomes unavailable or too expensive once the inevitable happens and the house is blown or washed away.
The southern end of the island used to be wild oat grass and dunes. You had to walk miles down the beach to enjoy it. All the actual natural beauty is gone but the sea itself. You have to get a $100 permit to take a 4x4 down on the sand.
Mickey
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Chic
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Karl, we have that in Riverwoods, il along the Des Plaines river. Every few years the high water just spreads out. But it is seen as prime location.

In the early 1990s I bought land in Scottsdale however my thoughts of building ended when 10 years ago I saw evidence of declining water levels in lakes and thought as the boomers moved into the area things would worsen as all the developments had pools and golf courses and many of those homes had pools.

I did not know then that population shift would be renamed climate change.

The Phoenix basin has always been known for housing booms and busts and that also included migration from California.

Sometimes there are simple explanations for everything.

Cmoledor
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Akron Ohio FEMA region 5
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Glad I live in northeast Ohio really. For shitty winters, at least we have lots of water. Would I like to live off the land? Not really. But I would think its more doable here than out west. Water wise any way. Of course Id freeze to death in winter though. Well fuck. Guess Im dead. lol. Cheers all.

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Twainfan2
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Another classic case: Red River Valley in MN/ND. Idiots all built on a flood plain and get floods nearly every year when the snow melts. State pours millions into the "disaster" each time it happens and the idiots never learn, they just rebuild right on the same spot. Same can be said for New Orleans. What idiots decided to build a city at or below sea level right next to the ocean? I say let it all flood and the idiots can drown. No more taxpayer funds to rebuild due to your stupidity.

Btw, if you haven't already, check out Tony Heller's work. He tracks a lot of the temperature data and debunks all these claims of "hottest on record" type shit.
Invisiblesun
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Maryland
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Great points. For the past 30 years especially we have watched millions of people choose to put their money in property that is in mother nature's bull's-eye. Whether it be hurricane zones, deserts, dry forests, or flood plains. People are choosing to locate to those area.

Is that smart or stupid? Statistically, the stupid is building in a flood plain. Flooding is a very common event. I believe the last hurricanes in North Carolina caused minor wind damage. It was the flooding that damaged entire neighborhoods.

Yet flooding is not a consequence of man-made climate change. Rain happens. What is man-made is building in the path of flooding rivers and rising storm tides.

The most expensive properties are typically built on waterfronts. The Obama's have waterfront property in Hawaii and in Martha's Vineyard. Neither is at a high risk of hurricane and have zero risk of river flooding. And neither is at high risk of rising sea levels anytime soon. Maybe in another thousand years.

There is no climate crisis. There is unwise construction and poor engineering. There is misplaced ecological priorities. Humans can be stupid and they can be unlucky. If you take a risk and mother nature makes your life inconvenient, blame yourself. Don't blame Exxon.
Tonythetiger
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Fort Walton
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Yep. There's the issue with city-raised folk moving to the countryside. I grew up in upstate NY, in a river valley that occasionally floods. Thing is everyone knows it will happen, so most small towns are built on higher elevations to avoid MOST flooding. However, every now and then a doozy comes along with heavy rain and snow melt where the water has nowhere to go but up.

I've seen pictures of a creek flowing over the top of a bridge that's usually 50 feet above a water level you could normally walk across by hopping from stone to stone.

About 10 years ago the remnants of two tropical storms dropped so much water that Main Street in one town had 8+ feet of water running down it on consecutive weekends. The weekdays between saw the water recede enough that folks could begin to clean up the mess, only to see the entire event repeat. Many of those houses had been there for decades without ever seeing flood waters in their living room. Needless to say dozens of homes and businesses were completely trashed.

If city-folk are foolish enough to buy housing right next to the source of an obvious flood plain, as Karl describes, then they're going to learn by winning the Stupid Prize, one day.

Naturally they will cry to be bailed out since "no one could have seen this coming".

I'd hate to be the company selling flood insurance in that area.





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Oldchemist
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Im a fifth generation Arizonan and Im shocked at the growth here. Since the seventies the AZ native folk have been saying that it is crazy that the Phoenix area is growing so fast and that they are going to run out of water. It finally looks to be happening.

In my rural area ranching was the traditional occupation. In the 80s the ranchers sold out to developers and the land was sold off in 40 acre plots to people who didnt know any better - a lot who bought it site unseen. Its pretty much a barren desert with some small juniper scrub trees and the rare pion pine. It laid mostly fallow with until about 20 years ago and then with covid there has been a huge influx of people moving in. There are some nice big houses around but most consist of very poor people. There is no water or other infrastructure out in the sticks. Well drilling is expensive so only the relatively wealthy can afford to drill a well. A large number of people haul water from our city water supply which Im worried will eventually not be able to handle it. County regulations require that septic systems be installed but Im not sure if that is being enforced. The amount of traffic thats around is astronomical from what it used to be too. Those who live out in the 40 acre plots are also using an inordinate amount of the local ambulance service. The preponderance of calls are to those areas - way more calls than from the small town folks. The condition of the roads to get to them destroys the ambulances so they need replacement more often too. Its a mess that is overtaxing the local resources.

By the way the apostrophes that I use in my posts do not show up in the preview or published text. Im not sure why. The n with the tilde for pinon also does not show up.
Don24mac
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Yep, even in New England this is common. And I'm not even talking about hurricanes and the coast.

We live quite far inland and have lived here, on the top of a hill, for about 35 years. About 1/4 mile mile from us was this farmers field that after receiving a few days of heavy rain would fill up with a substantial amount of water. This flooded area was about a half to three quarters of an acre and we saw it fill up twice. It would take about a month to completely drain off.

About five years ago we see someone building a nice very big house right in the lowest part of this area. There's been no increase or improvements in the drainage. One of these days, after the remnants of a good storm or hurricane pass over, they'll be flooded out.

I wondered how they got a permit to build there. But the 24 year old who granted the permit obviously hasn't been here too long.

Don't they keep records of this kind of thing? I guess not.

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Ib0
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Another problem is agriculture. Since California produces so much food (for both
people in CA and in other parts of the US) the water usage increases. Central
Valley in CA has been more or less sucked dry with nearby wetlands no longer
being wet. This needs to be solved as well, but it's no longer a local problem.

It also seems like a whack-a-mole problem. People flock to Nevada, Arizona, California, deplete resources there and then move to other areas like Idaho, Utah, Montana, New Mexico, Colorado. And the cycle continues there: prices
go up and resources are depleted. What's left is financial and environmental ruin.





Jpg
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MI
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Part of the problem the Colorado River watershed is seeing is that last year and this year, there was actually very close to a normal snowfall, but in the Spring when it was supposed to melt and flow into the river, there was a lot of warm/dry wind (Fire Weather warnings common) and most of the snow evaporated/sublimated and blew away rather than flowing into the river.
Dingleberry
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Just had a friend come back from visiting southern California for the first time. She did not realize everything was so "brown".

I had to explain that the entire southwest is a desert, the palm trees (and boobs) are fake, and generally people should not be living there except thy steal water from others. Even on the coasts. It rains a few times a year, and most of the time it is a giant fire hazard. And the few times it rained also brought its own destruction, i.e. mudslides and incredibly slippery roads, almost like ice.

When I lived in SoCal, we came very close to getting burned out, even though I lived near the beach. The fires were so massive. High winds combined with kindling everywhere........the fires we so large they blocked out the sun, ash was everywhere. In your house, in your ears, everything.

But they keep packing them in there like sardines, both from south of the border and Asia. Something's gotta give eventually.

Whitehat
Posts: 8990
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Operation Escape from New York
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Ditto Karl, can't argue with anything that you wrote. Said climate alarmists have another problem.

We are going into a cooling period, not their incorrect warming warning. Something else happens during a cooling period in a lot of places.

Rain and snowfalls decrease in number of events and magnitude. Heat causes evaporation of the large body masses of water into Nature's ultimate and never to be duplicated by man, the world's largest desalinization plant imaginable.

Additionally another albeit smaller effect in our human time frames is that cooling periods impound more fresh water in the ice and icy regions. Less melt can be a major factor.

Surely, i could be off by a factor here and there, but it highlights your point that we need to concern ourselves with the variables which we can control.

However, people have become accustomed to stupidity. We get stuck with low flush toilets and barely workable shower heads (unless got drill) yet embraced living green carpet around us for what? Yes, in some areas water is plentiful, perhaps even too much, grassy areas can absorb heat, however waste is waste.

There is a pattern in this country. During a boom time people develop expectations; have lifestyle like those houses in the flood plains; waterfront property; all sorts of multi billion dollar investments in navigation channels, ATONS, dredging, bridges whatever that never served general market commercial needs and when there is a threat or TSHTF it is part of the general Fed budget or more deficit spending. Translation: out of the pockets of people who could not for whatever reason enjoy it. Don't hand me that bullshit about required federal flood insurance as that IS subsidized, has admin costs, shall i go on?

Over my years of observing this have learned one thing and had it explained to me. Be where a resource is absolutely not optional and the rest of the country will directly or indirectly subsidize it. Years of suffering without AC and paying through the nose when using it, solved by living somewhere it is not optional. Come hell or high water, the areas which must have it, although some might have interim issues, unless this country ceases to exist the same people learning to make do where it is possible WILL pay for it.

You honestly think that the desert areas are going to be allowed to go dry? Sure, i as an honest person realize the same arguments which Karl makes here. When push comes to shove, you the one in a more temperate area living with much higher water rates, economizing still will subsidize those who already pay less than you and live in a technology that has not been maintained and expanded as necessary on THEIR dime. Oh, and a lot of these places and their transplants like to play conservative. Yea, fuck you.

Florida residents like to boast how the fucking AC runs literally round the clock, damn near the whole year or else the place is uninhabitable in terms of modern construction and LIFESTYLE. Yea, without AC in the South people lived very differently. Ok assholes, like to brag about having nuke power in some instances where the rest of us were too stupid to do the same or whatever other scheme. Well, explain this to me. Dealing with the nuke waste is an unimaginable cost requiring a country wide financial and logistical commitment. How much of your energy costs contribute to a sinking fund for a proportionate contribution to these costs. The sick thing is that if people were forced to face these costs, concepts which Karl regularly brings up here would have to be considered such as reusing the waste until not hazardous, different nuke fuels ... I know that there is more to this for the spergs among us, so don't even start. In more ways than one FL is a subsidized lifestyle village, by us. It is not the only one.

Somewhere else here i commented that the Millennials have observed decades of people being subsidized and have themselves decided since for many of them their prospects were never to be so bright that they would grab wherever and never be forced into a sacrifice to pay for the sins of others. They know all of the arguments long before this digital destination existed. They are open socialism which occurs after generations of insidious socialism. Yea, tell me i am fucking wrong.

Who pays into Medicare an amount equal to or greater then what he ultimately consumes? Few if any overall. Yet, Millennials have been told for most of their lives that they will not have the wealth building, experiences and retirement of the generations before them. But, while you are surviving, clean up the fucking mess.

Well, if you can't beat them, join them. Can't even get people here to stop participating in the economy as much as possible or at least stop patronizing the obvious OPTIONAL asshole entities. Yea, i get it. It started as a financial blog, not a collection of idealists like its proprietor Karl. People want strategic knowledge, so here is some.

Go and live somewhere there is a potential water crisis. I am. I got all of the best options. If the tap stops running, as a renter i just leave. Something tells me that the lease cannot survive such an event, or i will simply pay it with some reserves. That is worse case. Otherwise, in a crisis perhaps some good investments can be picked up cheaply, because after the real fun starts. Just think of all of the contracts, jobs, federal spending (everyone's money) that will dump from the sky and in which everyone can partake OVER THERE to keep the place afloat. AZ, NV, some of NM, the got the retiree votes, immigrants, some of the youngest populations additionally, very safe cities, left coast magnets, etc. You think that they are going to simply shutdown or let this economic engine and growth potential be lost. That investor class will have a fit.

And the fools, like i once was, in places that are actually more conservative in terms of taking care of themselves when one thinks about it, are going to pay through creeping inflation, monies directed elsewhere, high utility and energy costs just to be miserable and learn to make do. Yes, a lot of these places are in liberal shitholes (old liberal shitholes), however the people there actually live rather conservatively even with all of the management and governmental mistakes and stupid politics. Sure LI, NYS was stupid to not keep their nuke energy option, however at least the rest of the country will not have to deal with its waste.

I heard years ago that there was a plan to build a tunnel from the Great Lakes to the American Southwest for water import. Just think of the possibility that it could happen, on your dime, when you in areas similar to or directly abutting these lakes cannot take a decent shower or have a good shit flush.

And, you are going to pay for it too.

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Iou
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The Twilight Zone
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More truth that will never be heard from the MSM. American hubris is an embarrassment. You reap what you sow.

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Tradebait
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And those same people make fun of us hillbillies. They win the Darwin Award. We just keep living off the land with plenty of water and corn in a jar.

Yeah, I know, just feeding the stereotype...
Cluelessinfl
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Quote:
check out Tony Heller's work. He tracks a lot of the temperature data and debunks all these claims of "hottest on record" type shit.


Heller is awesome.

His blog: [URL https://realclimatescience.com/]
His YT channel: [URL https://www.youtube.com/c/TonyHeller]
YT constantly blocks him. They can't handle the truth.

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Imhotep
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All the low/wetland areas in/around Charleston, SC are being built on. Flooding is getting worse and worse as surrounding areas get hit hard when a good amount of rain decides to fall.
Boredfree
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western slope colorado
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Karl, again you nail it.

I've been dealing with 'drought' and the water restrictions which always follow since my childhood.

Mid Seventies Northern California had a 'drought' which required everyone conserve water. You had to ask for table water in restaurants, toilets started becoming low-flow clog fest and I found fishing tackle that had become exposed as Lake Oroville hit historic lows (built in the 60's, not a lot of history to judge by at that time)

Growth continued unchecked. And, as expected, more people became affected by drought. Keep adding people to an area already challenged by too much growth and insecure water supplies and what did they expect?

Drought, drought, drought... a magic word that makes people stupid about resources.

I live in the sticks, but we are hooked to a domestic water system distributing water from the Grand Mesa to approximately 1000 properties. The first year of the pandemic was dry and our water company cut everyone's usage by 1500 gallons and raised prices $10 (we get 7500 gallons for $45 a month)

This seemed like a reasonable way to deal with a poor water year. EXCEPT, our water company is only 50% built-out and so we can supposedly add another 1000 users. My question becomes, if we need to cut usage because our supply is limited, what happens if they add another 500 users? Do I have to limit my use so fuck head developers and dirt pimps can continue to thrive? How do I benefit from this?

Drought is just another scam, like global warming (or is it global cooling? They can't make up their tiny mind). People are pretty easily fooled into believing anything an 'expert' tells them.

We are enjoying wonderful spring/ summer weather: mid 80's during the day, 40's at night(sleeping is easy when it's cool) snow still hangs on the north side of the mountains, yet neighbors are complaining about the 'heat' and how dry it is (it isn't)

Their perception is shaped by the media. They are told the weather is hot so they complain about the heat...

My wife and I built our practice house during one hot summer... the following summer we started working on the main house. It was even hotter and I know because I was stacking rock for our foundation. The few summer storms we did have would split and go to either side of us and I would curse the gods for their cruelty. I felt like an ant in the hot pinpoint of a kids magnifying glass.

Summers have been cooler since. I am currently stacking rock for the foundation of a cob wall we're building to enclose a patio area and I am enjoying working outside. I'd take a whole summer like this.

I haven't said it enough: people are stupid.

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Tickerguy
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@Imhotep - The other problem with building in low-lying areas is that inevitably much of the ground gets covered with hard surface (e.g. roads) which do not absorb anything, so the remaining area gets flooded WORSE.

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Lizardqueen
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The river down behind us has a clearly defined flood plain - a wide, flat, highly fertile area that abruptly ends up against hills.
There are a few older houses built along it but they're at the high spots on the banks and are also a bit elevated.

Downriver there are newer vacation and regular houses built right along the banks where it is not as high.

We looked at one when we were house shopping, saw it was listed as being in a flood plain, and noped on out of it. It's a beautiful location but not worth the financial risk.

A woman I worked with ended up buying it about 10 years later. I told her about the flood risk and she blew it off, telling me it would never happen.

3 years after that we had a very snowy winter and a fast runoff during a very warm spring. That river rose sharply over days to the point where they had to commute to their car parked on high ground by CANOE. Then it came up into the house. The high water mark was about 4 feet up the living room wall.

They ended up raising the house by 10 feet at huge expense.

Nature is what it is and does what it does. It doesn't care if we want to live someplace pretty that might get wrecked.

As a people we are far too divorced from nature and think that we can be immune to the laws of it just because we want to be. Excess water or not enough of it it, it needs to be considered when choosing a location to live.
People are stupid.


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Larryboy
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Windsor Colorado
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@oldchemist
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By the way the apostrophes that I use in my posts do not show
there are two apostrophes on your phone, a slanted one and a vertical one. Only the vertical one ' works here. Hold on the key to toggle
Winston2020
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The more one digs into almost anything in the "official narrative" category the more one finds that NEARLY EVERYTHING is absolute bullshit.

"in line with scientists' predictions"

Jun 20, 2022 Europe is having hot weather which the press says is hottest June weather since 1947.and is due to global warming. They chose to ignore more than 1.000 years of inconvenient European history, including the hottest and driest year of 1540.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvoVvLaD....

Note that the CO2 units in the graph are in THOUSANDS of parts per million by volume (ppmv). I recently saw a column about our "alarming" 400 ppm(v) levels. :

Temperature (T) and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration proxies during the Phanerozoic Eon

https://www.researchgate.net/publication....
Whitehat
Posts: 8990
Incept: 2017-06-27

Operation Escape from New York
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Karl said "The other problem with building in low-lying areas is that inevitably much of the ground gets covered with hard surface (e.g. roads) which do not absorb anything, so the remaining area gets flooded WORSE."

Yep, it is called Houston, TX. The whole place is a basin which the original settlers noticed would have severe flooding problems. Then they build sprawl in the areas originally intended to take this extra water. Whole suburbs over the past forty years were built where it was expected to flood to protect the original city basin.

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smiley "How are you feeling? Kind of under the weather? Like you've got the flu?"
Imhotep
Posts: 265
Incept: 2013-07-18

United States
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@tickerguy

Yep...I'm in the concrete industry so know all too well how that works. Surprised more municipalities aren't requiring pervious concrete (takes a good bit more skill/materials/labor to put down).

When Boeing built here, a lot of the runoff comes to the creek that is adjacent to my neighborhood (according to a few on muni boards) and floods the lower areas in the hood. ACOE supposedly did a study that they presented to our town and citizens could listen in...I'm not sure what they spent on the "study," but there was zero substance behind their "conclusions."

Our town has tried to mitigate flooding and we haven't had much, if any, in my neighborhood, but we haven't had the really heavy rains since then, either.
Kf7psm
Posts: 46
Incept: 2021-09-13

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There was a 3 parts series titled "Cadillac Desert" that was shown on TV in the 90's. Someone managed to record it on vhs and put it on you tube. If you want to know how the problem started that gives a clear picture. The West is going back to being what it Naturally is. A Desert. Desert rats know how to live here, others will eventually leave. Unfortunately, most of the rats will be the imports.
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