Yellen Is Wrong AGAIN
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2022-06-20 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Energy , 1288 references Ignore this thread
Yellen Is Wrong AGAIN
[Comments enabled]

I'm getting tired of political feelz being paraded around as alleged "facts".

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the Biden administration’s policies are not responsible for record-high gas prices, and the only way to fix the energy crisis in the "medium-term" is to move towards "renewables to address climate change."

...

"Actually, consumption of gas and fuels are currently at lower levels than pre-pandemic, and what's happened is the production has gone down. Refinery capacity is declined in the United States and oil production has declined. ...."

Refinery capacity and production declined because Biden said he would ban both and, within days of being inaugurated, took concrete steps to do both.

Refineries and pipelines have a 30, 40, 50 or more year service life.  Nobody in their right mind is going to put forward capital investment with a 30 year payback when you're told that investment will be destroyed and that threat is credible because the people making it then act in accordance with same, thus confirming that its not mere election-year rhetoric (which we all know happens and usually means nothing.)

Yellen argued that the best way to address the energy crisis in the "medium-term" is to transition the country off of fossil fuels.

That's a thermodynamic impossibility within the current realm of knowledge.  In short: You can't.

To make an EV battery you must dig up 500,000 lbs. of earth.  For one battery.  Which has a service life, after which it must be replaced.  Which has no current means of economically recycling the components either, so unless you'd like the price of the pack to wildly exceed the crazy levels it is at now you will throw the old away and buy another one with another half-million pounds of earth dug up.  All of which are dug up, transported and processed using fossil fuels because there is no other rational way to do so.

Renewables in the form of wind and solar require these fossil fuel inputs, as do storage batteries.  Because the energy they produce is uncertain, that is the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow, you can never guarantee how much output you will have from them even if you could somehow resolve the fossil fuel requirement for creating the panels, concrete and blades for the windmills, and rare earth materials you must dig out of the ground and refine to make them.  For this reason the energy they produce will always fluctuate wildly in price simply due to fluctuations in supply.

If you build "enough" that you're comfortable you will not be short there will be times there is so much supply the price is zero and the economic incentive to build them will likewise be zero.  At any build-out less than this there will be times when you demand it but can't have it.  Of course the time when you demand it and can't have it will be at the most inconvenient time of all, typically when its freezing-butt cold or broiling hot.

Look at the price of these things and the fossil alternatives over long periods of time.  Natural gas has seen wild spikes in both directions in price.  So has wind power, solar and similar.  There are only two that do not over our history of use: Coal and fission-based nuclear.

It doesn't matter one bit whether you like any of this or not.  These are facts and unless you want a power bill that varies by 400% or more (natural gas has seen price variations of ten times or more in reasonably recent history) you are out of your mind to not build the base demand capacity out of things that do not have that fluctuation and aren't dependent on those that do.

This isn't complicated.  Yellen famously said that inflation was "transitory" not all that long ago -- about a year back -- when she was arguing for, and implementing, the next round of wild money-printing after Trump did it too and I remind you that she has now been proved to be completely full of crap.

Now she's doing it again and if you let her and this Administration get away with it I hope you are ok with the wild price spikes and shortages, up to and including black-outs, that these policies will lead to.

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Ocdawg
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Let's go Brandon, WI
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Websters:
BOOBUS AMERICANUS (pronounce:Boo-bus Amer-i-kan-is)

Def: having the remarkable ability to believe everything one is told, no matter how many times or how often the information changes, with no attempt to confirm that information and blindly follow said information without question

Reference pictures:
smiley

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"You're a stupid son-of-a-bitch"
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Invisiblesun
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Yellen is a blubbering idiot. She is an imbecile. She needs to be relieved of any responsibility and told to go home.

Green energy sucks and the more it is pushed the more ruin we will have in our country. We are more than a dozen years into a full government push to replace fossil fuels and what is the status of things?

Green energy has stalled. It remains a high cost, low density, unreliable energy solution. The excuses don't fly. Green energy is an inferior product and it simply doesn't match the needs or expectations of what the economy demands.

Cmoledor
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Freakin Karl. The most logical man on the planet explaining one of the most illogical scams on the planet.

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The whole world is one big fucking scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skullfucking and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
Cosmicpatriot
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One thing that always seems to get observation-holed in these leftist fantasies about a "brilliant carbon-free future" is how due to our colleges and universities being converted into indoctrination mills, overall the population is getting more stupid not smarter. There will be fewer and fewer paradigm-shifting inventions from a dumbed-down society. The slack-jawed morons coming out of our education system would rather "save the planet" by staging sit-ins on highways rather than figuring out how to make them work better.
Prof_dilligaf
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For some reason, I'm reminded of this rant from Trainspotting: It's SHITE being Scottish! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand, are colonized by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to be colonized by. We're ruled by effete arseholes.
Sraven
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There is no attempt to fix or even sustain the economy.

There is sincerely no other rational explaination than
"they want to destroy the economy".
When you boil down the "Great Reset", it is exactly what they said they were going to do.
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the Biden administrations policies are not responsible for record-high gas prices, and the only way to fix the energy crisis in the "medium-term" is to move towards "renewables to address climate change."

How many lies are contained in that one sentence?

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Caton
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Lithium batteries life is measured in load cycles. Renault Zoe's battery is guaranteed for 1,500 load cycles, which is very good for a 52 kWh, 400 V lithium-ion battery.

French watermelons (green on the outside, but bright red inside) translate that 1,500 cycles guarantee to "it's good for 10 years". They either live on Venus, or can't divide by 365...

However, the gov't is planning to use all car batteries for storage of "renewable electricity" when they are connected, and has already deployed "smart" electricity meters to be able to do that. So a car battery can be emptied and reloaded many times in a day, without the owner having any control on it. Instant free electricity storage !

Of course, nobody talks about the impact on battery lifetime, but once this is done, I expect no car battery will last a full year.

To replace the battery costs 7,400 euros for a Renault Zoe, 14,500 euros for a Tesla Model 3, 17,400 euros for a Ford Mustang E-Tech, and 37,800 for an Audi e-Tron.

Why anyone would buy an electric car is a mistery to me.

Reason: Typo
Dingleberry
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Yellen, just like other statists, is lying. But going "green" is good for leftist public relations, at least in their minds. Just like all manner of woke leftist social causes are (supporting unions, etc.). The lemmings believe it. Plus Wall Street gets in early on the scams, which inevitably collapse. But they take their money and run. Similar with the leftists at the top supposedly being for the "little guy" and then doing anything and everything they can to prevent unionization at their companies. Starbucks, Amazon, etc. etc. etc. Oh the horror!!!

But when the rubber really meets the road, we see their true colors and intent. Even Germany, which has gone over the green cliff, is starting to FINALLY grasp they are looking at actual deindustrialization if they don't cut the shit out. They are looking to go back to using COAL!!!! On top of bring back natural gas! Other euro peons are starting to realize this too. They are staring at life as it was in the Middle Ages if they don't cut the shit out, and fast.

Money talks and bullshit walks. When the karen freezes her ass off, or sits in the dark for a few days......karen learn. Virtue signaling is one thing (it's free)......but when woke playtime ends......Mr. Physics always wins.

My bet is on Mr. Physics.

China knows this. India knows this. Russia sure as hell knows this, watch the speech Putin gave a few days ago. He spoke about green stupidity.

Then ask yourself who has more competent leaders at the helm, them or us.

The answer is blatantly obvious.
Quantum
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I have a friend who's looking at all this and keeps saying, "Surely Biden is going to have to reverse course!"

My response is always, "No, he isn't."

Lenin (or maybe one of his cronies) used to say that a capitalist would sell the rope used to hang him. Environmentalists will choke off the fuel supply to the trucks that bring food to their grocery stores.
Flappingeagle
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I know that some of you guys are way ahead of me on battery technology information. What is the best battery tech, price vs longevity vs cycles vs whatever, for a fixed situation like a house? Assume that the house has solar panels capable of generating at least 120% of its needs.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Elkad
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Used nickel-iron batteries from a phone substation.
Last forever (I'd have no fear of installing 40 year old ones), handle deep cycles effortlessly.

Warning, they are MASSIVE.
Warning, they vent hydrogen heavily while charging.
Warning, you have to add water regularly.
Jesjohn94
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I'm afraid facts don't matter nowadays in a world of state sponsored propaganda. Anyone who thinks the Republicans will be able to resist getting in on the greatest global scam that has ever happened that is green energy has rocks between their ears.
Boredfree
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We could burn Yellen and Congress for fuel; hell, all the politicians of the world, and we would eventually need coal again. Even the political class has limitations on its potential fuel reserves.

People should stop demanding politicans do something, and force them to act for our benefit.

Politicians won't change - we have to force them to change. Or change them. The political class needs skin in the game. They need to feel the hot angry breath of their constituents upon the back of their neck. They should sweat thinking about making a decision their subjects won't like. They need to fear bad outcomes or they won't change.

Politicans don't face consequences for anything they do as a group. High prices are a problem for the poor, not the politicians. Rules for thee, but not for me is the mantra politically connected people live by.

One aspect the political class has forgotten is that by taking everything from us, we have less and less to live for. When the graph line of political corruption crosses the line of what people have left to live for... all bets are off.

I feel a day is coming when someone has had enough and they will snap. When they do, it might trigger others. Then the dominoes will fall.

Unfortunately, I'm sure there are elements ready to exploit this to their advantage so the end result is probably going to be even worse for the average fellow.

History is an echo.




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The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Invisiblesun
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@Dingleberry wrote
Quote:
Even Germany, which has gone over the green cliff, is starting to FINALLY grasp they are looking at actual deindustrialization if they don't cut the shit out. They are looking to go back to using COAL!!!!

So declares the CNBC headline
Quote:
"The situation is serious": Germany plans to fire up coal plants as Russia throttles gas supplies


What more proof of the fraud do we need? Any person today claiming an industrial economy can "go green" is ignorant or lying. Germany's green movement has failed, and they were all in!! It failed due to physics. It failed because reality bites. It did not fail due to the lack of political will or lack of trying.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/20/ukraine-....
Swredpill
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The Desert
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Quote:
Warning, they are MASSIVE.
Warning, they vent hydrogen heavily while charging.
Warning, you have to add water regularly.


I agree. If I were to use batteries nickel iron is what I'd use. Home Power magazine had an article on guy in Chicago that came across a set of nickel iron batteries from a diesel electric submarine. He flushed them out and put in new alkaline. They worked well for him.

They are Alkaline so keep vinegar around in case of spill or contact with.

Be sure your charger voltage can go high enough. They require a higher voltage to charge and especially to float charge.
Whitehat
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Karl wrote..
This isn't complicated. Yellen famously said that inflation was "transitory" not all that long ago -- about a year back -- when she was arguing for, and implementing, the next round of wild money-printing after Trump did it too and I remind you that she has now been proved to be completely full of crap.

Now she's doing it again and if you let her and this Administration get away with it I hope you are ok with the wild price spikes and shortages, up to and including black-outs, that these policies will lead to.

This is merely the mainstreaming of the Millennial's Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) crusade. They are a serious political block, and the political class is merely responding to their demands after a subset of it essentially created them.

One can actually understand where they got the internal justification for the free money thing. Many, most notable here being Karl, have said for decades that a price must be paid for past monetary sins. In fact my generation kind of grew up with an expectation that things would be harsh for us to clean up the past mess. Shame that it did not really happen as Karl notes the pain gets worse the longer we wait, until it cannot be put off any longer. Enter the Millennials.

The Millennials have a victim-hood mentality where they do not wish to pay and know full well that the lifestyle, opportunities and wealth of the previous major generations (note plural) were built on post war deficit spending. Even though it is completely not possible to ever recreate those situations due to the locked in destruction of past inflation, they want to be subsidized themselves in any manner which they can come up with.

They are all into free healthcare, free energy, free education, free housing, whatever. They know that their existences are not really that great but figure that they can make the most of them by getting their pick at the feed trough. We are in a position of asking the miserable to bear more misery without any likely payoff. I have spent a few decades conversing with this generation. Society has managed to create a massive, nihilistic and uninspired crowdism {SIC}.

The green thing is merely something that they figure can be blown out for them to get some subsidized existence, and they will be dead or not care by the time it collapses. Right now they all get off on how cheaply they can plug in an electric car, perhaps on someone else's meter (junior early example: remember all of the free internet tricks years ago), get subsidized this and that in terms of buying and owning the car, fuck if it is unfair to the greater society. They will turn around and have no problem mentioning the previous generations inflation subsidized housing wealth, great educations in a public system, roads never economically viable but responsible for certain communities, fed money paying for this and that to compete with them. We discuss this each and every day here.

Green is merely the newest scam. There are people right here who know that it is wrong to get their electric panels, cars, green bullshit below actual cost due to government incentives, but they do it anyway as the numbers work. Millennials see this all of their lives, but are too late in many regards to take advantage.

Someone posted a video in the bar section of a Kurdish man saying that one harvests what one plants.

We (correction) You taught them to demand these scams.

Truth hurts. Now go look in a mirror. It takes a real man father (see yesterday's article) to turn down something which benefits him or those associated with him on principle and shun those who do otherwise no matter who they might be.

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smiley "How are you feeling? Kind of under the weather? Like you've got the flu?"
Swredpill
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The Desert
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I'm an electrical contractor. Over the last 30 years occasionally I would get a call from someone, particularly after a storm, about a back up generator. Except for one ten years ago whom I did one for a lady who medically needed a reliable source of power. In the last year I've had more inquiries about generators than in the last 30 years. I've installed 2 this year, finishing one this morning, and a finishing a fourth next week. I had two calls this weekend alone. People are getting concerned.
Proverbs16.33
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WNC Foothills
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Great to see Germany perhaps finally starting to at least take a peek at reality. Hopefully more of the industrialized world does so before things fall too much farther.
For me, just like with waiting for all the vax injuries to manifest, I find myself just waiting for a lot of these new EV owners to start having to eat some of those replacement battery costs...right now they're still pretty high n mighty, but I think a new battery replacement, or two if they make it that far, will shut them up.
Jbrich
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This is very much off topic (sorry), but I think relevant to one of the Ticker's long standing topics.

Mark Cuban seems to have entered the pharmaceutical business, selling generics at cost with a small markup. https://costplusdrugs.com/

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but I would love some perspective from any American readers. Is this a game changer or a scam? Are generics really that expensive in the US? Is he doing an apples to oranges cost comparison between generics and brand name drugs?

Just curious.
Maxpain
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Lifespan and quality of life for all but the top 1% will continue to gradually decrease due to little more than bad-intention-based policy. The sheep won't bleat much if the pace of societal and resource degradation is slow enough (they've certainly been testing their limits these past couple of years).

To a follower of Christ, none of what has transpired is surprising. Feels like the pace of sand-loss from the upper bulb of humanity's hourglass has quickened - how many grains of sand remain and how do each of us spend our remaining time here? For me it will be to continue to love those who are important to me and continue to spread the Word, both literally and through the resources that have been entrusted to me.

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Take the first step. No more, no less, and the next will be revealed. ― Clement Watt

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Neal
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Not just Germany but Austral is also backpedaling. They shut their last coal fired power station in 2020 and are now about to get it out of mothballs. But I seriously doubt that a single power station will satisfy the power needs of a country come winter once they use up their remaining gas.
The talk is that some countries want to keep punishing Putin by keeping the war going. What are the odds that Putin is keeping a list such that even if the war finishes before winter he will pay back those countries by being slow to turn back on the gas. Let Europe freeze in the dark for half of winter and then extract major concessions for supplying gas and crude
Tdurden
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@Caton:
Quote:
Why anyone would buy an electric car is a mistery to me.
For the same reason BMW hasn't quit making the 7 series and Audi still makes the A8. Those cars are ALL total basket cases beyond the life of the manufacturer warranty. 99% of them are mechanically totaled around 100k miles. They still make them because those companies don't count on "sales" they "lease" them. People with the income to support that arrangement are happy to pay the upfront down payment and monthly payment and toss the key fobs back to the dealer in 24 to 36 months. The ones that haven't been abused get sold "certified pre-owned" and the rest get auctioned off where new bag-holders take them on until the first major repair from poorly designed valve/timing arrangements or coolant and/or oil leaks. At which point they end up in the scrap yard. Notice even the kids on Youtube like Tyler Hoover, et al only buy those cars to chronical how stupid it is to buy one unless you are making videos about how stupid it is to buy one.

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"I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next 10 generations that some favors come with too high of a price." -Vir Cotto Babylon 5
Poorsaver
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Cmoledor wrote..
Freakin Karl. The most logical man on the planet explaining one of the most illogical scams on the planet.


Comments like this is why I love this place.

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"You can get killed walking your doggie!"----Vincent Hanna
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