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2022-06-14 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors , 1233 references Ignore this thread
PPI: Smoking (AGAIN)
[Comments enabled]

Oh my look what we have here!

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.4 percent in April and 1.6 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 10.8 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

So.... two points, more or less, higher than CPI.  PPI leads, I remind you, so the consumer inflation level has not peaked.

Let's look inside.

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 1.4 percent in May, the fifth consecutive rise. Over 70 percent of the increase in May can be traced to a 5.0-percent advance in prices for final demand energy. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy moved up 0.7 percent, while prices for final demand foods were unchanged.

Oh really?  Only 5% eh?  Well, don't look at June, because gasoline, for example, has risen by more than 10% in the last two weeks which is all in June.  Oops.

Product detail: Nearly 30 percent of the May increase in the index for final demand services can be attributed to prices for truck transportation of freight, which rose 2.9 percent.

No kidding?  You mean $6+ diesel fuel turns directly into higher shipping prices?  I just got back from a cross-country trip and saw lots of dead dinosaurs coming out of the stack of 18 wheelers and every one of them had better keep moving or you're not eating, never mind being able to buy and consume anything else.  The current Administration's war on fossil fuels might make you feel good but it is also directly responsible for this insanity.  Choose one and only one: Feel good or be able to afford food and basically everything else.

The really nasty is that the 12 month trend is unbroken and, as I noted, it all started right after Biden was inaugurated.  He said he was going to do this during the campaign and he has.  It takes time for the PPI to reflect down into the final shelf price and it has.  But the 12 month final demand number, less food, energy and trade from 12 months prior stands at 6% which it has run at or above since August of last year.

Shut it off now and it will be next summer before that has all worked its way through and there's nothing you can do about the time requirement.

What's even worse is this table, which portends an inflationary detonation of your pocketbook:

 

That is catastrophic.  Note that the right-most column is wildly above the left -- by about double -- and has been for the entire last year.  While productivity can absorb some of that the fact remains that unprocessed goods are turned into processed ones and then finally into the above table.  This is a direct result of both the Trump and Biden Administration policies -- Trump first with wildly insane money printing and then Biden with not only doubling down on that but in addition declaring war on energy.  Do not for one second think this resides only in the executive; it does not.  In point of fact it is Congress that is primarily responsible for all of it and both sides of the aisle are equally to blame.  Make sure you provide proper thanks to your Congress critter and Suckators for screwing you blind.

Of course that would be redundant since the American people demanded all of it, so for once we got what we demanded.

Trade and transportation have not shown any slowdown either -- not that it much matters with the goods and services side generally.

Anyone who thinks "inflation will moderate" over the next 12 months has rocks in their head.

More tomorrow.

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Ocdawg
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Let's go Brandon, WI
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One word (can be applied to numerous topic points, including southern body parts):

OUCH!!!

smileysmiley

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"You're a stupid son-of-a-bitch"
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Imhotep
Posts: 265
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United States
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we are getting price increase letters monthly, now, it seems. Fuel Surcharges being the most recent. Price per ton of rock (Bahama Limestone) shipped via ship into marine terminal is up just over 10% starting July 15. Increase for rail-served products isn't up as much, but around 3%. This is on top of increase the material price, too.

On top of that, we have been on cement allocation for about 2 months with this week being one of the worst. Have been allocated 9 loads (to serve 4 plants) per day. Every damn day is a moving target for us and our customers are getting frustrated, but it isn't just us raising prices as we all know....Will be lucky to continue to get inputs so we can continue to produce product.
Calrissian
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Its kinda difficult not to see CPI >15% at some point
--
Here in the UK... I expect 12/13% by late summer, and maybe 18/19% by year end.

I maintain a policy of 'buy now, before its higher price, and/or not available'.
Mjeff87
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Richmond, VA
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Add in shrinkflation and fuel/delivery surcharges as well to get an even clearer picture. Both of those don't figure in directly to the indexes, but no one is mentioning them.

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Dingleberry
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Inflation plus recession equals stagflation.

For those of you who are too young to have witnessed the last time we had this.....you ain't seen nothin' yet.

You will now see what a REAL recession looks like, not the bullshit 08 meltdown, Dotcom bubble and other financial fuck ups that just got papered over. Those were all a complete fucking JOKE.

I mean a recession where there is massive job loss, with rising prices, and abject MISERY. Google the "misery index". That is what you are looking at.

Now throw in the green stupidity, which is akin to throwing gas on a raging inflationary fire.

Oh well. You can't fix stupid. But you can enjoy watching stupidity!

Hope that stimi check was worth it. And to my idealistic friends in the Free Shit Army.....you are about to find out what "free" really costs.
Cletusnclovis
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kansas cattle country
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Amazing that people are so clueless about what kind of inflation we are experiencing and what is coming down the road.
Our sales of relatively expensive, high maintenance cost, non-essential products are still going strong. I would think our products would be the first to be dropped from the shopping lists of consumers!
I'm not complaining mind you, I do however wake up everyday and am amazed by it.
I believe the people of the USA are in a state of denial and I don't know when they will wake the hell up !
Calrissian
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London, UK
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I believe the people of the USA are in a state of denial and I don't know when they will wake the hell up ! - Cletusnclovis

If there was an inflation rate for denial, it'd be >30%.

A failed society/species... as Q4 is when the fun will likely begin.
Spaceace
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My wife went through the fuel expenditures for our small farm looking for ways to cut fuel use. One item she cut was using the gas-powered weed eater and going to the manual cutters. We already had one but we wanted to get a backup. We got lucky and scored the last one. If you have the bucks, get what you need now.
Winesorbet
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Not amazing at all. Jobs are still plentiful and paying well. Cash flow is what matters and Americans still have it. This continues IMHO until the jobs start disappearing in mass. And yes the markets are down but they are still pretty damn high considering the run for the past decade.
Stoic
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LC SC
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In my upper middle neighborhood I have yet to find a single person who is concerned about this. Not one. I will grant you that my sample size is small as I don't speak to a lot of people due to my aversion to stupidity which has increased exponentially over the last couple of years but still. All of the restaurants are full. The beaches are full. The tourist traps down the road are full. I have no idea if it is a last hurrah for folks or if they just have no clue. Or worse, they just don't care because "Uncle Sugar" will take care of it.

Stoic
There's a freight train coming our way.
Shadowmask
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It's ok. When the summer demand shuts the grid off, the blackouts will save us money!
Invisiblesun
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Maryland
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Nothing the FED can do will put a stop on the insane regulations and broken work culture that is suppressing supply of goods and services.

The only option for the FED is to destroy demand - which means we are heading for a deep recession, similar to what was had in the early 1980s.

If the FED doesn't act to destroy demand the market will. Honestly, I'm not sure which is preferred.
Indianarube
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NW Indiana
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Quote:
More tomorrow.
I, and others I'm sure, can't wait. I just wish a few politicians and others who can actually affect a change in course would read and heed what you, and others are warning about.
Winesorbet
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At the moment this is still just a poor/lower middle class person problem. And if they don't raise 75bps this week markets will roar again. Not saying this is sustainable but they can draw it out for quite a while.
Indianarube
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NW Indiana
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Quote:
All of the restaurants are full. The beaches are full. The tourist traps down the road are full.
As long as the credit card still works, and they can make the minimum payment, the fun times won't stop. When the credit limits on CC get cut to the outstanding balance, look out, here it comes. I would look for subprime CC lenders to start first. Capital One perhaps?
Jc3
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@Stoic I'll vote for denial + stupidity + insanity.

Denials say "that'll never happen here" until it does.
Stupids continue spending on non-essential BS until $$, food, job, or all of those disappear. Maybe blind is a better word for them.
Insane are not stupids but complete fools in that they KNOW what is coming and somehow think continuing following bad spending habits will not come back to haunt them in the future.

Already seeing advertisements AGAIN for "HELL"-oc loans like seen in the last two bubbles before they popped.....yeah, take a loan on your home, later become upside down on the loan and in financial HELL.
Going off the rails under The Crazy Train.
Ihsmta
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The very fact that people are still spending like there is no inflation indicates that it will get much worse before it gets better. There is still too much money chasing too few goods and services.

The late 1970's into the 1980's sucked. I remember construction, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, HVAC, etc. all working only seasonally spending the winter months collecting unemployment, playing cards, sitting in the bar. Construction projects simply stopped mid-completion for years.

In our small town I buy off-brand smoker pellets in 40 lb bags from a local alternator/starter repair and battery shop. (Yes, you heard me right. He's a real entrepreneur.) Those 40 lb bags went up from $18 to $19 and now $20 in the last 12 mos. He said he's charging no more for the pellets, but shipping in by the pallet has gone up. Another case of rising fuel prices being part of the rise in price of everything. Still cheaper than Traeger pellets by a long shot.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality." Ayn Rand
Kiwiapsa
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@ Indianarube
This is exactly what my wife and I were talking about several months ago. This has to be the way a large number of people are still affording to maintain the chimera of keeping their heads above water financially. When those cards start hitting credit limits the social and financial consequences will rapidly follow. Treading water has time limits.

Reason: Spelling
Husker
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Omaha, NE
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As I finished reading this at a long stoplight I look up and see a truck go by with "Critter Cleanup - Pest Removal". Impeccable timing.....He should add a congressional line of business.
Baltgayveteran
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@Stoic: "...There's a freight train coming our way."

Unfortunately it is empty of goods. Or maybe full of illegals?
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
In my upper middle neighborhood I have yet to find a single person who is concerned about this. Not one. I will grant you that my sample size is small as I don't speak to a lot of people due to my aversion to stupidity which has increased exponentially over the last couple of years but still. All of the restaurants are full. The beaches are full. The tourist traps down the road are full. I have no idea if it is a last hurrah for folks or if they just have no clue. Or worse, they just don't care because "Uncle Sugar" will take care of it.


I am on vacation and seeing the same thing across the country. Here is my current thought on this.

COVID plus upper-middle class and above.

I believe that a lot of people were stuck at home due to Covid for two summers so now they are going to vacation or die trying this year.
The upper-middle and above can still afford a vacation especially, if they did not get to go on one the previous year.

I believe this will pass and may even be visible by late summer i.e. August being a below average vacation month.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Cletusnclovis
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kansas cattle country
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Ihsmta,
I was one of those construction workers in the late 70's. A young married man with a wife, a baby and an infant. The winter of 77 was the worst. The state had gone to computerized everything regarding employment benefits and they had my yearly wages listed as my hourly wage= NO unemployment benefits for me. Since I was a stonemason's laborer it was too cold to work(bad winter 77), and not much for any other jobs. Took until March of 78 to straighten it out and got all my money at once. Got my car repossessed, ate lots of hotdogs, beans, and became an expert hunter. Thank God you could still find grocery stores that actually butchered their meat !! You could buy soup bones, tongue, and beef heart for 10 cents a pound. One of them knew of my situation and I think they left a little extra meat on those soup bones at times. I remained their ever loyal customer for life until they got ate up by the big box grocery stores.
YEAH,,,,my children's generation has no idea what a real recession looks like.

Reason: Typo
Lizardqueen
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A True American Patriot!
Upper Moonbatistan
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Not only does most of the population not know what a real recession looks like but neither does most of the "money managers" handling the retirement accounts of millions of people. Pension managers too. This scares the hell out of me.

I'm 57. As a kid I heard stories about the Great Depression from my grandparents and stories about WW2 deprivation from both my parents and grandparents. I was also alive during the oil crisis of the 70s . I don't remember the inflation and Volker years all that well but I do remember the stress in my father's voice and face, as well as the fights about money with my mother.

My father was an investor that had seen all that and it colored his view of risk in all ways. When he died 10 years ago he left my mother with no debt and a really nice amount of investments, all accumulated on a fairly average single income.

The 30- and 40- year old whiz kids managing funds these days likely never heard these stories, had this kind of parent, or lived through a crisis themselves.
There are too many people who consider themselves financial hotshots when making money has been easy to do without thinking a lot about it in the last few decades. They don't know what they don't know.

This is the premise of the Fourth Turning, where current society makes the same mistakes that their ancestors 80-100 years ago did, since all the ancestors died off and there is no one to remember what happened the last time.


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"Pull your pants up, turn your hat around, and get a job"
---P.J. O'Rourke

Whitehat
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Operation Escape from New York
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@Flappingeagle -- "I believe this will pass and may even be visible by late summer i.e. August being a below average vacation month."

For some people. This is the dynamic. Huge sectors of the economy will not be touched by any recessionary trend. In fact many of them are having this factored into their COL in their contracts.

This is what i remember from the 70s well into the 90s. Certain occupations never felt any economic issues except in the most cursory fashion.

It drives a lot of decision making for the political class.

Does the other half, of which many of us are members, have enough cohesiveness to become a force for change?

It is really quite interesting, and why i do not consider a full-bore recession mess to be baked into the cake just yet. In fact several respected prognosticators with proven track records are predicting a short, harsh 23-24 recession and then another solid boom. They do state that RE will not be the big thing that it once was, but a sustained boom nonetheless. This does not sound like stagflation to me.

We have a huge moneyed class in the world of govt inc employment and other protected industries. Things are not changing for them any time soon. I would track their lives to find the economic opportunities.

Sure some people and areas get left behind, but they always have. There are places which i watched crash in the 70s and 80s that never came back even within cities and productive areas. However, the other booms did occur.

Major money from the rest of the world is coming here right now. They have their reasons. Will they go away?

Please note that i am in full agreement with what Karl discusses here. Just that certain things need to be reconciled with my observations.

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smiley "How are you feeling? Kind of under the weather? Like you've got the flu?"
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