Ukraine Has LOST, And So Have We
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2022-06-12 10:31 by Karl Denninger
in Foreign Policy , 6829 references Ignore this thread
Ukraine Has LOST, And So Have We
[Comments enabled]

I predicted this, and now its happened.

Oh yeah, it hasn't been "recognized" yet, but it will be.

There are reports that Zelinsky is drafting women.  You don't do that unless you're out of fighting-age men who can actually fight.  Note that the soyman who runs away or spends his time buttfucking and/or preening can't actually fight, and you must have people who can.  When you even contemplate drafting women you've made a statement that you're out of competent fighting men.  This is similar to what the NVA did after Tet and what Iran did, but both grabbed literal boys, shoved rifles in their hands and sent them out to die.  Which they did, in size.  The war was over in that case both times, but not yet admitted.  In the former case we literally walked away from a win thanks to Cronkite and the stupidity of the American people buying his bullshit.  Thus it is here, except this time its just money, much of which has been siphoned off by defense contractors and the families of politicians -- like fuckface Biden.

Russia has employed a nasty and very effective strategy which our so-called "punditry" has entirely failed to understand.  Putin's folks lob artillery shells at the other guys; anything within 10-20 miles of their weapons gets pulverized.  With satellite and UAV targeting and fire direction these are wildly effective -- and cheap.  He can do this all day long for almost no money.  He blasts away until your force is cut in half, creating a no-go zone where if you stick your head up to try to return fire it gets blown up and then slowly does a pincer on one of the pieces, making the perimeter ever-smaller until they either surrender or are all dead.  Then he goes after the next one, and so on.

Ukraine has proved incapable of hitting Putin's field pieces as they do not have air superiority and man-portable stuff does not have the range to hit them.  Thus Putin can do this with impunity -- and is.

Yeah, Russian soldiers are dying.  But Ukraine is losing both men and material at a much higher rate, and slowly, one-by-one, all the places in the eastern part of the nation are having their Ukrainian troops removed.  In pieces.

At the same time the so-called Russian Sanctions have blown up spectacularly in the western world's face.  Russia now has a stronger currency than it did before the war we instigated began.  Oil and Natural Gas, never mind things like fertilizer, are nice and expensive which suits Putin just fine.  He has negotiated long term interchange with China for both and is building out the capacity to wildly increase same.  Europe is fucked down the road as a result and in the meantime they got nothing for all these "sanctions."

For that matter so are we.  We've sequestered our inflationary deficit spending overseas via the China/US (and other nations, including India) trade deficit for the last two decades.  That's over and will never come back because none of the nations that we were doing it with have any reason to allow it ever again and they don't need to.  Not a single member of the Fed or other "economic punditry" has said one word about this although I sure as Hell have.  At the same time Russia is shipping oil to these nations who then cross-ship it back, some refined first, and there's absolutely no way to do anything about that since we're incapable of sanctioning either without instantly detonating our supply chains, offshored labor or both.  As a result we can no longer spend in deficit without it reflecting back into inflation which means the "free ride" gave has been terminated and while this was always eventually going to end we did this to ourselves and thus the inflation you're seeing and will continue to see was and is caused directly by our policies and our government.

Thus the only way to stop the inflation is to stop deficit spending -- all of it -- right now.

Biden and his vunt nutjob Nuland along with many others royally fucked up.  There's nothing to be done to salvage this; you can't directly engage in armed combat with Russia without everyone glowing in the dark and everyone with 2 or more IQ points knows it.

We had better reverse course on all of our insanity with regard to energy now -- including oil, natural gas and especially coal, which has a stable long-term price structure or we're going to get fucked.  The economy here will fold back into a deep, nasty inflationary recession materially worse than the Carter Stagflation, which I remind you we caused with our stupidity related to the Arab Oil Embargo.

Further, we can no longer spend, at the federal level, anything we do not first tax from someone.  I do not give a wet crap what the excuse is from the left or right it all stops now or we will continue to get a wild inflationary spike, demand destruction will inevitably follow and so will severe civil unrest when the blackouts start along with the inability to fund food or even worse -- civil war.

If you're flying a Ukraine flag, assholes, you are the identified enemy right here at home, thank you very much for wearing an enemy uniform openly in public and you deserve to be forced to pay every damned dime of the economic cost to this nation for that act of STUPIDITY.   You ALL deserve the worst of what is to come AND IT IS COMING, like it or not.  I and many others will do our level best to make sure YOU and your entire family eat that cost -- every damn cent of it.  You are the most-stupid follower of the "next shiny object" and frankly, you are too fucking stupid to consume oxygen that could and should instead be used by something like a hog that actually produces a useful end product -- tasty bacon.

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Airrage1
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Well stated here. As Daniel Boorstin observed in THE IMAGE 60+ years ago, pseudo events have consequences that the creators of said never consider.

Mark Ukraine as just another blip on the continuum of hysteria perpetrated by TPTB.

The 21st Century has been defined by the bored and boring ruling class exacerbating problems to justify their cushy lives.

Roe's return to the States will be next.

In the meantime, the pain they have inflicted with their "solutions" (i.e. DHS for 9/11, Fed action for the the dot.com and housing busts, lockdowns / jabs for C*****, unwavering BLM support, trans, etc.) is real and the escape valves are starting to blow.

Jwm_in_sb
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If you doubt what Karl is saying, watch the last three videos from Patrick Lancaster from the literal front of the war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5YZueez....
Jwm_in_sb
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And remember, the idiots flying a Ukraine flag are the vaxxholes who wanted and still want to LITERALLY put you in a camp for refusing it. That MESS is still going to play out amidst the economic turmoil.
Lazydaizy316
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This "war" was nothing more than a money laundering scheme and the stupid sheeple bought it hook line and sinker. The West is on another Titanic and the rich rats are jumping ship. smiley

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Kwwilson
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Permission to steal that closing? I see the opportunity to use that over and over.
smiley
Seriously, this is a fantastic analysis. I had not heard that he is drafting women. I would accept every volunteer, especially those who think they are men, or that they do not need men, but drafting them is a moral failing on an epic scale. He is obliterating whatever is left of the Ukrainian genetics. Russia got much of it in one of the most vile communist genocides ~90years ago if I remember right, but this time it is, as you have said the wests fault. While a small cadre of WEF leaders set it up, too many idiots supported it, and damn near none of us did anything more than try to change individuals opinion in private conversations. I do not know that anything peaceful that would have had an effect, but at least second gulf war there were still some people who dared to protest, sometimes even outside of the appropriate -political speech zones- that the govt had deigned they were permitted to occupy. This time around, we are tempting ww3, and we are too busy bickering over whether Biden or Putin is the cause of the gas being so expensive.
I saw a very interesting headline yesterday, Russian foreign ministry publicly condemned Israel airstrikes in Damascus. My observation at the time was that either the Russian leadership was not fully rational, or they were in a much, much stronger position than we were being told. It seems I now I have the answer to that question.

smiley Its time. smiley
Cmoledor
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Karl. Always the master of words. Every ticker just gets better and better. Much appreciation good sir. Wishing everyone here a great day. Beers up! P. S. I dont see us reversing course at all. At least not until the ugly gets done and over with. May be a while.

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Bagbalm
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The Russian strategy reduces the need to take prisoners. They are killed instead.
Cluelessinfl
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All this talk of sending high tech weaponry to Ukraine is basically just for propaganda. Ukrainians do not have the training to use these systems. It takes months and months. HIMARS MLRS systems and Grey Eagle drones are sophisticated systems and need highly trained crews to operate them and also a specific maintenance and logistics infrastructure to support them. Ukraine does not have that.

This guy has some great analysis. I don't know his bona fides, I just happened to find him on YT.


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Ingar
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When Boris Yeltsin left office, Putin turned the table on the oligarchs who were looting the wealth of Russia and sending Russians into grinding poverty. The smart oligarchs fled to London, Tel Aviv, Nueva Jork , or Miami. One, Bill Browder, was clever enough to have CONgress pass the Magnitsky act as a reprisal against Putin for daring to interfere with the oligarchs god-given right to own all the wealth of Russia. Where the bible once said that the non-chosen would be the hewers of wood and carriers of water for the chosen folks, they are now the overthrowers of governments and installers of chosen-people friendly governments.
Last Wednesday and Thursday I channel surfed the ABC,CBS, and NBC iterations of the Ministry of Truth and found no Ukraine war news. I knew that this silence meant that something was wrong with the rah-rah Ukraine cheerleading and that the war was not going well for our Ukrainian puppets.
And not only is the war not going well for our puppets, our political and economic war against Russia is taking a heavy toll on our and the European economies. The big guy and his handlers won't suffer the consequences of their decades long mismanagement of our economy, but a lot of Americans are about to feel pain that they've never felt before.
I hope that for them, having been hewers of wood and carriers of water was worth it.
Edward.fish
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Karl Denninger wrote..
There are reports that Zelinsky is drafting women. You don't do that unless you're out of fighting-age men who can actually fight. Note that soymen who runs away or spends his time buttfucking and/or preening can't actually fight, and you must have people who can. When you even contemplate drafting women you've made a statement that you're out of competent fighting men. This is similar to what the NVA did after Tet and what Iran did, but both grabbed literal boys, shoved rifles in their hands and sent them out to die. Which they did, in size. The war was over in that case both times, but not yet admitted. In the former case we literally walked away from a win thanks to Cronkite and the stupidity of the American people buying his bullshit. Thus it is here, except this time its just money, much of which has been siphoned off by defense contractors and the families of politicians -- like fuckface Biden.

@Tickerguy -- Good observation, and excellently said. However, consider this alternative hypothesis: Ukraine has a Leadership- and Elite-Class which (like us) not only do not care about the people, but hate and actively work against them; if this is the case, then getting rid of the women of childbearing age would be a very good method of striking at the people themselves.

Quote:
This means the only way to stop the inflation is to stop deficient spending.

Yeah... the only way that isn't happening until it starts personally impacting politicians.

Quote:
We had better reverse course on all of our insanity with regard to energy now -- including oil, natural gas and especially coal, which has a stable long-term price structure or we're going to get fucked. The economy here will fold back into a deep, nasty inflationary recession materially worse than the Carter Stagflation, which I remind you we caused with our stupidity related to the Arab Oil Embargo.

Given the observed apparent goal of destroying the middle class, they may want this: making it expensive to even exist, then offering "Universal Basic Income" as a 'relief', which then gets little strings -- like surrendering the right to keep and bear arms, and/or "being up to date on ALL your 'vaccines' (and gene-therapies)", etc.

Quote:
Further, we can no longer spend, at the federal level, anything we do not first tax from someone. I do not give a wet crap what the excuse is from the left or right it all stops now or we continue to get a wild inflationary spike, demand destruction follows and so does severe civil unrest when the blackouts start along with the inability to fund food or even worse -- civil war.

Engineering a "Civil War" here would be an excellent preparation of the battlefield: it will eliminate some (most?) of those who would resist, it will expend their food and ammo reserves, and it will make a segment of the population that will desire the 'stability' offered by an invasion disguised as "relief".

Reason: Fixing quote-tag.
Abelardlindsey
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The western European governments are already looking for the "exit ramp" from this war. So is U.S. Congress (both parties). The Biden administration is doubling down on this insanity. Every one other than the Biden administration and State Department are scrambling for the "exit ramp". Just like with the covid-19 shots, I think the Biden administration will continue to double down until they are stopped by external events, most likely a combination of inflation, electorial losses in the mid-terms, and an obvious Russian victory.

This administration is not capable of seeking the "exit ramp". Remember, they could have taken the exit ramp over the shots last May when it became apparent they did not work and caused harm, and dumping the blame for the whole thing on Trump. I honestly thought they were going to do this at the time as this is the typical pattern of slimy politicians covering their asses when things go wrong. Instead they doubled down until stopped by the courts January of this year. I think similar has to happen to make the administration to stop with this Ukraine war.

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Abelardlindsey
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Something else that makes me wonder about this war is the complete lack of live news coverage of it. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 had lots of embedded reporters with the troops. Most of our other actions did too. However, there is absolutely NO embedded live coverage of this conflict. One reason for this is, of course, that our military is not fighting in this. However, you would think the Ukrainian government would have journalists in this war in order to drum up support. But that's not happening at all.

Another thing I noticed right off the bat was no live coverage of the average Russian in the street and his or her reaction to the war. Of course the Putin government controls the media in Russia. But you would expect to hear something coming out of Russia. But we don't. This tells me that the average Russian man and woman in the street is fully on board with Putin's actions. I think the reason for this is that one, Putin saved the Russian economy from the predations of the oligarchs, backed by the "Harvard Boys", in the 1990's AND two, they have seen the continued predations by these players in the Ukraine over the succeeding 20 years since Putin came to power. I think the average Russian person is fully aware of the massive corruption and predation in Ukraine and do NOT want a return of the same to Russia. You do know that Ukraine's per capita GDP was less than 25% of Russia's, and that was with Ukraine making better technical gear (jet engines, advanced alloys, etc.) than the Russians.

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It's all in the mitochondria.
Keepingmyoptions
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It was over as soon as assistance was hesitated. The German Marders soon to be junked, were held back due to some sort of excuse.

There is no country that will fight Russia west of Poland. Britain can look across the channel to the new, ever expanded Russia after all the European states become puppets.

The US is a ghastly ally. They destroyed Hungary and Czechoslovakia late in WWII by refusing their surrender, throwing them to the Soviets. They destroyed Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, simply through prevarication. They offered up Korea and negotiated a split after WWII.

Then of course there were the abandonments of the Bay of Pigs, Saigon, Kabul. I must be missing a few.

We are shit. Hang our heads in shame. We should go back to killing buffalo, at least those redmen were honorable.

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Jwm_in_sb
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They're saving the pivot blame on Trump until he announce formally. Last May would have been too early.
Thelazer
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Davenport, Fl
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It never was a "war."

The shit head beer drinking "Amercian" who believed the TEE VEE NEWS thought it was a war, was told it was a war, and heard how much we should "Stand with" Ukraine, bought it hook line and sinker...

It was a giant money laundering scheme, not a war.
The big guys 10% had to be paid, in blood.

Luckily, we've avoided directly having our boys sent over there SO FAR.

But I expect nothing less, a last grasp effort, Biden on TV, tears in his eyes as he demands the parents of the USA allow there young men to be drafted off to his blood money war to vanish his arch enemy THE PUTIN! GO GET EM!

Maybe if we are lucky, that will be the straw and Joe Biden will be quickly removed by his own party... as it seems nothing else will make them do it.
Abelardlindsey
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The Indians and other players buying Russian oil (and fertilizer and foodstuffs) and reselling it to the West and the rest of the world is exactly the same thing that happened during the Arab oil embargo in 1973. This is a trade that I would have liked to get into personally (if I was positioned to do so) as it is a way to make a great deal of money in a short period of time.

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It's all in the mitochondria.
Jwm_in_sb
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Oh no...there is in fact live coverage daily. I watch every morning. It just is not from the American MSM.
Disgusted
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This shit war was lost the minute it started. I said it right from the start along with our kind host and many here. When that cockbite Austin openly admitted to risking nuclear war to "weaken" the Russian military with an extended war, he should have been fired and fed to feral hogs on the spot. There are no words to describe the blatant idiocy and incompetence of the FJB assclowns. Hopefully the long range rockets aren't going to cause it to spiral out of control, and the Russian military can destroy them on the way to being deployed. EVERY FUCKING THING that the Pants Shitter dickheads touch, turns to shit. They have done everything 180 degrees opposite of what they should be doing. It has to be on purpose to destroy what's left, or they are the dumbest mother fuckers that ever lived. Those are the only choices to pick from.
Abelardlindsey
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Quote:
They're saving the pivot blame on Trump until he announce formally. Last May would have been too early.


They lost the chance to do this by doubling down on the shots with mandates starting in August of last year. By doing so, the democrats took "ownership" of the shots in a manner they can no longer walk away from. I think the reasons for such was that many of them get campaign money from Big Pharma (just like Freddie and Fannie prior to 2008), the administration was looking for a "win" to overcome their humiliation over the Afghan withdrawal, and because the vast majority of the "Karans" are democrat voters.

I think a major reason for Biden administration's pursuit of this war was another desparate attempt at a "win" over the failure of both the Afghan withdrawal and the covid-19 shots. The Ukraine debacle will be far worse for the Biden adminstration (and all of the rest of us) than the Afghan withdrawal. I think it was Obama himself that said never underestimate Biden's ability to fuck things up.

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It's all in the mitochondria.
Abelardlindsey
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Quote:
Oh no...there is in fact live coverage daily. I watch every morning. It just is not from the American MSM.


Well yeah. I look at the RT website as well. Interestingly, I cannot get it at work because they blocked it. However, I can easily see it at home. I've read the RT website for years. Not for news about Russia because I considered it propaganda and because I have no interest in Russia, but for international news because it actually is quite objective. I look at Al Jazeera as well for the same reason. But Al Jazeera seems to push a somewhat "woke" leftist perspective that tends to turn me off.

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It's all in the mitochondria.
Happyapricot
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Effective and Cheap munitions. I've wondered about this for a long time watching the war on terror unfold.

The USA with the smart bombs and missiles which are expensive. Then compare the missile cost to the cost of what they were blowing up.

I always figure that the USA will be bankrupt before they win the war.
Tickerguy
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@Happyapricot - Back when insurgencies were a thing one of the groups figured out how to make us spend $1m missiles on stupid.

Take old microwave, put a stick in the door switch, attach to long extension cord, point in desired direction with the door open and turn it on.

Our munitions would identify that as a potential "radar" and blow up the $50 decrepit piece of shit sitting in the street with nobody within a quarter mile of it.

At a cost of a million smackers a crack.

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Dingleberry
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Ukraine lost the war the second the first Russian soldier crossed the border. Russia is using a fraction of its resources. Ukraine is using ALL of theirs plus begging for more from the west. Drafting women? I though they were equal now? Where are the feminists? The gender-is-a-social-construct gang? Funny how when the bullets fly, so do the women.

Once again reality bites libtards in the ass. Speaking of libtards and their neocon cousins...the former is so fucking stupid they have no idea (or cannot accept) that THEY are paying for Vlad's military now, as he is rolling in near-unlimited cash due to parabolic energy prices. Once again...reality bites them in the ass. I would have thought after watching the "media" repeatedly lie, the masses would gain a tad bit of skepticism. I was wrong.

As for the military situation, the west thinks like westerns, but the western method of war cannot be compared to Russia's. A few pointers: the west cannot accept high casualties, it is politically untenable. This is why we have not had a draft, nor will have a draft. The support for war goes right out the window once thousands of dead come home. Blue and yellow emojis are one thing. Body bags another. We won't be going to war over the Ukraine. Russia has no such qualms, they never have and never will. Read up on their military and social history. They are not unique. Most of the non-western world does not place anywhere near the value of human life as we do (or at least act like we do). Besides, the Russians know the equation now. Surround and pound. Advance. Repeat. And recall the media said the Russians were running out of ammo.....OVER TWO MONTHS AGO. Anything the west sends there will simply be pulverized. The best Ukrainians units have already been destroyed, and will take months to years to replace, time which the Ukraine does not have. Apparently some mercenaries are realizing this, and bailing out too.

Second, the western military model is based on dominance of the sea and air. The sea is necessary for the west to survive (ask Britain about U-boats). The Russians do not need the sea, they simply want to deny its use to others. They have done that to Ukraine and their exports. As for air power, if you do not control the air, you cannot launch offensive action with very few exceptions, and at EXTREMELY high cost. Think suicidal. The Ukrainians have no chance of taking anything back. They have no air force left. Once the Russians occupy it, consider it gone for good. They seem to be playing for keeps. They know the score when dealing with their arch enemy, the fascist. And not just Ukrainian ones, but those in Brussels and DC.

Once the Russians take Odessa, there is nothing left of Ukraine except an economic wasteland and indefensible mass of flatlands. If little 'ol me knows this, our military leaders certainly do. Aside from sadism, there can be only one logical explanation for pumping this war by endless lies. A "cash for tanks" sort of thing. We send all our old shit to Ukraine, and replace it with shiny new stuff straight from our defense industry.
Andyk
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A big, sarcastic thanks to our Government for screwing up the economy so bad that I'm forced to do an expensive roof replacement two years early, because God only knows what it may cost in 2024, thanks to inflation. At least I was able to get almost debt free preparing for this, but not quite the savings I wanted.

FJB, Congress, and the Fed!
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