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Speedpolkabrewer
Posts: 72
Incept: 2019-05-12

Green Mountain
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A couple of thoughts on related articles I've read in the past 24 hours. First was a newsletter I get still from my days as a real estate consultant. Basic gist, new home sales are starting to slow, people walking from commitment prior to construction, leaving waitlists, an additional time on market to sell. Multiple angry quotes from builders and realtors that the Fed needs to lower rates because it is getting too hard and customers are being priced out. A whole lot of wrong to unpack. I was simultaniously laughing, shaking my head, and weeping at the stupidity.

Second, has anyone else read the remarks the Dhali Llama has been making recently regarding immigration and border policy? If you haven't, look it up. It is priceless. And he is not wrong. It sounds a lot like a speech I gave in high school circa 1992.
Edward.fish
Posts: 197
Incept: 2021-12-17

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Jw. wrote..
@Greenacr, Trump needs to own some as well. Neither party is going to admit they did this (both parties are complicit to our massive debt), that's why Putin is the scapegoat du jour, ***** was yesterday's scapegoat.

The real question is, will either party stop spending money they don't have or will they simply drive this plane into the ground?

@Jw. -- Trump deserves far, far more blame than he gets.

Allowing the shutdowns was just shameful, as was allowing the one-sided prosecution (against those who dared to defend themselves), but the thing here that he deserves to be hated for is this: bailing out the big corporations. (And daring to call it "small business" relief.)

Kfell wrote..
The chorus of those wanting a weaker labor market is getting louder and louder.‌

@Kfell -- I'll remind you that the "shutdowns" happened at exactly the time when the corporations would have started to pay wages commensurate with the skill/education of the employees. (The "recession" of 2008-10 let a LOT of corporations undervalue their employees, along with the Affordable Care Act incentivizing against full-time employment, and was just starting to recover in 2018 -- basically just in time for 2020. Convenient.)

Kfell wrote..
After the recent job numbers were released last week, Bank of America analysts said in a note they are essentially "rooting against the home team" and hoping the numbers stop being so strong. As higher wages contribute to inflation, the Federal Reserve appears to agree.‌

@Kfell -- Given the trend 2008 to 2021, it's safe to say that corporate America has gotten addicted to shortchanging employees... but guess what the "mandates" did? They eroded the good-will and violated loyalty.

Trump is an excellent negative-example here: he always demanded loyalty, but always refused to show any to his supporters.
Inline
Pete_brewster
Posts: 163
Incept: 2015-12-10

Canada
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Inflation was never really brought under control. It was just suppressed by outsourcing.

The problem now is that corporate America has run out of foreign slave labour.
Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Ewtnewbie2 wrote..
I'll work as an employee and get paid a percentage of my production rather than risk the entire business just to have a place to come to work every day.

Exactly why I decided to shutter the LLC this past weekend. Coulda been something special. I just put in another yard hydrant with a plumber so that I could learn how to do any others should I need them in the orchard. He told me that every week they have about a dozen Californian transplants. All unique (as in non-repeat) customers.

We're seriously considering selling it all and moving overseas, or to the boondocks somewhere else.
Latviski
Posts: 126
Incept: 2008-02-22

Colorado
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The whole sell and go elsewhere always baffles me. Go where? A diff state? Everyones woke or on the I deserve it just because train. Youre not escaping it by running. Overseas? Europe - ha! Socialism x 100. Canada? F those pansies. And I say that with some family roots via Canada and a significant love of hockey. Aussies and kiwis have gone full on retard. Good luck in Asia. I think were down to S America and Africa and youre rolling the dice with either.
I prefer to stand and face whatever wind blows my way and live where I enjoy living. At the end of the day, the majority of people are weak minded and will simply follow the herd - this will all flip 180 degrees at some point, though that point is impossible to predict and could be years, decades, or more away. You only get one life on this rock so I prefer to make it count, enjoy it, and never fear whatever wicked this way comes.
Franco
Posts: 284
Incept: 2009-10-06

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Traelin0 wrote:
Quote:
We're seriously considering selling it all and moving overseas

Which places are you considering?
Proverbs16.33
Posts: 98
Incept: 2021-10-22

WNC Foothills
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I agree with @Latviski - where would I go? My people have been in NC since the 1700s, and I have early settlers traced back to the 1640s. I don't want to go anywhere (although we have GOT to do something about the governorship, but that's another story) But no sense running away from problems here into someplace new with probably worse problems.
and @Edward.Fish, I hope we the people will humble ourselves, and pray, and seek God's face, and turn from our wicked ways so He would heal our land, but I am sadly thinking these days we're more in the Sodom and Gomorrah kinda situation...
Bluto
Posts: 1411
Incept: 2021-07-10

Florida
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Lots of problems with moving outside the US, unless you are a VERY experienced traveler:

1) The US still has the most armed citizens in the world.

2) The US still has a strong undercurrent of individual liberty and freedom, highly dependent on location of course

3) If you move to another country, you will likely be considered an outsider. Not a good situation during a global recession, especially if they think you have money.

Yeah, the southern hemisphere is better if the missiles start flying, but what then? You think China won't move after those resources in the southern hemisphere?

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"Your heart is free. Have the courage to follow it." -- Malcolm Wallace from "Braveheart"
Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Latviski wrote..
The whole sell and go elsewhere always baffles me. Go where? A diff state? Everyones woke or on the I deserve it just because train. Youre not escaping it by running. Overseas?

When you've been in my previous line of work, you consider it both a blessing and a curse to have performed on the fly area studies in many different regions of the country and the world.

I lean toward OCONUS. Wife leans toward more remote CONUS.

I don't think Americans fully appreciate how good and ****ed this country is. But it'd take my wife losing her close family before she'd consider my endpoints.

Latviski wrote..
I prefer to stand and face whatever wind blows my way and live where I enjoy living. At the end of the day, the majority of people are weak minded and will simply follow the herd - this will all flip 180 degrees at some point, though that point is impossible to predict and could be years, decades, or more away. You only get one life on this rock so I prefer to make it count, enjoy it, and never fear whatever wicked this way comes.

Sounds great in theory. But in practice, YOLO serves only those without young children. And America doesn't have decades. 10 years tops. Ergo why I'm literally willing to bet my farm on it. We could sell it and pay cash for a turnkey farm in the boonies, or overseas with a fast track to citizenship. (Already been researched in detail.) No debt, no need to ever work outside of my passions ever again.
Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Franco wrote..
Which places are you considering?

One country OCONUS and only one. 2-3 different states CONUS, but it'd be more appropriate to say "regions", because part of mine is under consideration. Just further east.

The verbal cash offers we're getting from out of towners are ridiculous. Insane. These idiots want turnkey small farms and have no idea what it took to build this, let alone what it takes to maintain it. Suffice it to say I broke my body, mind, and spirit over the last 5 years building this nothingness into beauty and it was never the intent to do anything but work the orchard.

If I can convince my wife to GTFO, I'd never look back.
Mannfm11
Posts: 8091
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Speaking of Repulicans, the Rick Scott MAGA platform looked pretty good to me. The chances they would do it is ice cubes surviving hell. 25% reduction in the Federal payroll? That's a start.

There are only 2 things that can happen. Either credit continues to flow and wages increase to sustain demand, or this thing loses steam and falls into the abyss. We aren't even seen the "it is all ****ed up" yet, in prices. Energy is a disaster. What do they want to do? Take the profits away that will produce more. I have become aware the past few days we are short 1 million BPD refining capacity. We have an artificial addition of 1 MBPD in oil supply and they haven't cut off Russian oil yet. Ever see someone use a hammer on their peckers head? you are about to see it.

We are going to get the bill for the several trillion they stole in 20-21. Some of it is te inflation, but wait until the debt rolls at 2 or 3 percent higher than it is now. Each percent is $300 billion now and if they don't stop this what we are seeing now is a Sunday picnic.

I don't know who is paying attention, but there is a scramble for cash right now. Higher prices require higher cash balances. Look at the deflating assets, stocks, gold, crypto.

I don't know if people know what they are walking into. I would rather hold cash right now that we are going to have to pay the tax, but the others want to buy another house in the midst of insanity. Housing is tight here and people are bidding. That is the time to get out, not get in. The time to get in, is when no one has cash and can't. I actually want to borrow to buy and hold the cash. You can only borrow, when things get rough, if you have some. How many times do you hear, if I had the money? Those are the people piling in on the end.

In the same conversation, I get chided by my brother in law we could have doubled our money. I said with what? $600K in cash, less than 10% of our holdings? There are a lot of geniuses looking backwards. Who could foresee what has happened. I'm looking at what is coming. Debt looks good until you need cashflow, then it becomes a double whammy. His implication is we should have been fully leveraged. How do you get out? By giving it all to the government after you pay the debt. I used to tell my father the same thing. It is easier to lose a small fortune than to make one. Dad didn't lose any sleep, but cash paid a return back then too. My ideas were right, but he knew he would never get it back, if he lost it. He quit working at age 46 and was probably worth the current equivalent of nearly $2 million.

I think there is going to be a big liquidation. Housing is just one spot. Shortages become surpluses out of necessity. Kids move in with parents. Parents move in with kids. People move under bridges or somewhere else. Demographics change. People quit taking IOU's.

They won't stop inflation as long as it is perceived you can operate broke and get rich by going into debt. The only thing that will give debtors a break is the same thing that will kill them, a recession. This might be a collapse, as the system has so much meth flowing more just might not work. The expansion is exhausted and the administration is creating its own headwinds. The perception of people like my brother in law that they can just throw in more money. That won't produce goods.

It is harder to get out of trouble than in it. This is especially true with debt. For every person who made a fortune with debt, there are 10 who lost one.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Movedtonz
Posts: 2073
Incept: 2008-03-09

Hawkes Bay
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Lat,

I read the tea leaves 15 years ago and voted with my feet (hence my moniker here). Even way back then, US was suffering from a lack of ethics. And that evaluation was with a lily white subgroup of the US population that was in the middle class, if not upper middle class segment.

Every time I return to visit the country that I was born in and loved, I saw that it has irrevocably changed for the worse. Now, it is a third world country.

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Americans need to stop claiming stupidity to get out of responsibility. -Tsk
Tritumi
Posts: 630
Incept: 2008-11-29

tokyo
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As a long term ex-pat, the challenge is not one I would attempt again unless young, wealthy, or desperate.
Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Bluto wrote..
Lots of problems with moving outside the US, unless you are a VERY experienced traveler:

1) The US still has the most armed citizens in the world.

2) The US still has a strong undercurrent of individual liberty and freedom, highly dependent on location of course

3) If you move to another country, you will likely be considered an outsider. Not a good situation during a global recession, especially if they think you have money.

Yeah, the southern hemisphere is better if the missiles start flying, but what then? You think China won't move after those resources in the southern hemisphere?

1. Most armed and most unwilling to do anything with those sticks other than bellyache, hunt, and steal from innocents when they go hungry.

2. Where? Do tell. I'd bet that 75% of this country is on the take from government largesse at this point, and it's about to dry up. I'd bet 90% of conservatives didn't sacrifice their SS or Medicare that they've never fully paid into, so that their kids could have a debt-free entrance into the world.

3. Very true. Xenophobia is terrible in Fourth Turnings. We scratched off one of our two possible countries because of it. Best learn the culture and language, study their history, know folks there already, and share their religion.

Doesn't matter like I said. Unless my wife's close family passes away, I'm stuck here. I would never take her away from them. And obviously I wouldn't wish for that. But she is looking at more remote regions CONUS, and I can deal with that.

Bluto, folks are late to the party in worrying about China. Americans didn't clean up the dog **** in their own living room. Hate to say it, but the enemy is not overseas. It's your fellow citizens who outsourced your labor to them, who bailed out the banks, who poisoned your kids with the jab.

Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Proverbs16.33 wrote..
I agree with @Latviski - where would I go? My people have been in NC since the 1700s, and I have early settlers traced back to the 1640s. I don't want to go anywhere (although we have GOT to do something about the governorship, but that's another story) But no sense running away from problems here into someplace new with probably worse problems.

Think it's an easy decision for me to make? We have roots going back to the 1600s. I like what Benjamin Martin said in The Patriot: "I'm a father. I don't have the luxury of principles."

There is no honor in allowing our posterity to be enslaved - financially for now, but God only knows what the future holds in America. The whole reason I built this orchard and small farm from absolutely nothing but a parcel of heavy clay and rock was to do my part and benefit my local community. But mostly my babies. I broke my body doing it and don't regret a single second of it.

I feel like I did my part and I don't need to be here when it's fully appreciated by my community.

Guess what I'm getting at here is I've known for a very long time where we're headed. I tried to explain it calmly, passionately, etc., but not one word I spoke or blog post I wrote made a lick of difference. I've said it before, my previous life changed how I think, and I can't unsee what I've seen. I'd like to be Cypher in the Matrix and take the blue pill again, but I can't.

It sounds great manning the barricade until you realize that it's a pile of furniture, your compatriots are aristocratic children and street urchins, and the gendarmes have you pinned down. Les Miserables.
Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Tritumi wrote..
As a long term ex-pat, the challenge is not one I would attempt again unless young, wealthy, or desperate.

Better to beat the rush before the desperation kicks in. I agree with you on the age part though...I dread the thought of the whole logistics of it. But as for wealth? I think that makes you a bullseye in a foreign land. It's bad enough that most folks would physically stick out like sore thumbs. If they didn't keep a low profile and they have money, they're asking for a Kick Me sign on their backs.
Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Movedtonz wrote..
Every time I return to visit the country that I was born in and loved, I saw that it has irrevocably changed for the worse. Now, it is a third world country.

Yup. I tell folks all the time that there is a crystal clear line of demarcation these days between America the country and America the vision. The latter should be celebrated, even if it wasn't implemented perfectly from the outset. The former doesn't even have borders, a shared language or a shared religion.

And there's a difference between folks intellectually acknowledging the above versus actually grokking that reality.

It's like when my wife was diagnosed with breast cancer the first time. The grief for me came later and it was overwhelming. Paralyzing at first. I mean, I intellectualized and even thought I had prepared for the diagnosis. But you can't prepare. Your soul has an innate defense mechanism where it compartmentalizes Truth.

Again I say: 90%, maybe 95% of Americans may see intellectually that something is wrong with the country. But they are nowhere near grokking it, and at that point there will be very few options. Lumpectomy? Single mastectomy? Double mastectomy? All terrible, horrific, identity-destroying choices. You can never go back once you cross the threshold.
Tritumi
Posts: 630
Incept: 2008-11-29

tokyo
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@Traelin0, there is a big difference between being wealthy and showing wealthy. And if one believes the best escape is to a land of the impoverished and desperate on the assumption one can live the life of riley, I suggest that assumption is incorrect.

and dangerous to one's health...
Tickerguy
Posts: 183871
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep.

Impoverished societies tend to consider life extraordinarily cheap.

Including especially those who are obviously not part of their "tribe."

----------
Civil Society requires 99%+ consent.
Stop consenting and it is forced to stop. Always.
No violence required.

Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Tritumi wrote..
@Traelin0, there is a big difference between being wealthy and showing wealthy. And if one believes the best escape is to a land of the impoverished and desperate on the assumption one can live the life of riley, I suggest that assumption is incorrect.

Agreed. I'd suggest most folks should stay CONUS. Out of the cities, most definitely out of the HOAs and suburbs as we define them.

OCONUS is not for everyone to be sure, especially if they don't have any notion of what they're getting themselves into. That's not me, but it's also likely moot. The time for my family to pull the plug was when we were seriously looking in late 2019-early 2020. But...cancer again. And the ***** hysteria. Cancer is the gift that keeps on giving. Scuttles all your best-laid plans.

Reason: Grammatical Error
Movedtonz
Posts: 2073
Incept: 2008-03-09

Hawkes Bay
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Trae,

I so understand and empathize about the cancer thing. DW has done the breast cancer thing twice, including a masectomy on the second round. She has also dealt with cervical cancer in the past. At present, eight years in remission, which is long enough to suggest that she is likely clear now.

Moving to a new country is best done when young. Our research prior to our move suggested that emigrating when older had rather poor outcomes. We shifted in our mid 40s, which was on the upper end of the success spectrum.

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Americans need to stop claiming stupidity to get out of responsibility. -Tsk
Traelin0
Posts: 360
Incept: 2021-01-28

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@Movedtonz

Cancer is terrible, especially when you can't carry their Cross for them. I felt totally powerless the first time. The second time I was enraged. Not at God, but at the fact that so many of my fellow citizens care so little about life in general. They're unwilling to sacrifice even a piece of themselves to secure the blessings of posterity. In my case, it was Karl's sacrifice of writing about the healthcare system for years and the fact that I have seen very few people do anything to fix it. Start a farm, build a local community, run for office, channel your Inner Karl and explain the problems and offer solutions, go into the inner cities and teach folks how to grow window gardens.

This society is irreversibly sick and my wife's second cancer allowed me the ability to more correctly channel the rage away from God and toward the do-nothings and bellyachers.

We are at the upper end of the spectrum as well. Exact same age cohort as you when you expatted. I *wish* I could convince my wife that it's the right move, but I can't do that to her. She's already had enough physical and emotional trauma and uprooting her from her family would just IMHO be evil.

Movedtonz
Posts: 2073
Incept: 2008-03-09

Hawkes Bay
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On the most recent cancer bout, we did a lot of research into her particular type of cancer. After reading about hundreds of studies, and the numerous papers that were written about these studies, we became rather disillusioned with the medical profession. At least 2/3 of the studies had serious structural flaws embedded in them, or had clear biases. Of the papers written about the 1/3 of the appropriately constructed studies, at least 2/3 of these had clear logical errors and/or biases.

One example. One study theorized that tamoxifen helps with prevention of breast cancer recurrence, and chemo appears to help with breast cancer treatments (well, unless you are luminal A, but that is another story). So they did a study where they gave tamoxifen in conjunction with chemo. Utter and complete idiocy... The mechanism for tamoxifen is that it gets in the way of estrogen and reduces the ability for HR+ breast cancer cells to divide, as the presence of estrogen triggers the cell division. Chemo basically throws a monkey wrench into the mechanics of cells that are dividing, and the cancer cells are dividing at a rather faster rate than normal cells. Guess what happens when you suppress the division of the cancer cells while treating with chemo??? I think there were 15k women that were enrolled in that study...

The family aspect is a difficult thing to manage. We have no offspring, which made the move viable. We had to promise to the mum of DW that we would return to visit at least once a year, which we had done until *****. DW will be making the first trip since thanksgiving 2019 in a couple months, I will stay home to take care of our property and animals.

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Americans need to stop claiming stupidity to get out of responsibility. -Tsk
Kgmqt
Posts: 261
Incept: 2013-08-19

Minnesota
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Local news did there 15 second story on this. The message delivered was "Inflation may have peaked" and made it sound like we were all good now. But really what went to 0 was the 2nd derivative - the rate of change of inflation stopped, but it has not gone negative. It is still going up at an 11% rate, which is a disaster. Inflation has not been stopped or even slowed. It is now on cruise control.

But local news: "We're good"
Franco
Posts: 284
Incept: 2009-10-06

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I moved to the USA 27 years ago from South America. I will say this: if you don't travel much outside of the USA then you shouldn't even consider moving out of the country. Most people are not wired to do what I did. I am an outlier in that regard, and I have paid a price for leaving my homeland. Up until a week ago the place where I was gonna spend the last couple of decades of my life was up in the southern rockies of New Mexico but a wild fire destroyed my house. Now I don't know. With 150 million or so members, the "free **** army" could turn the USA into a very nasty place if the government checks stop flowing.
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