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User Info Less Disastrous Than Expected? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Dxd1200
Posts: 9
Incept: 2021-05-01

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@nadavegan I have yet to hear any Republican voice an idea or plan on much of anything if the Red Wave happens at midterms. I don't think they have a plan and if that's the case, then yes, there will be a Game of Thrones 'Red Wedding' where Republicans will be blamed and gutted for being 'in control' when the mass layoffs occur and we head into depression. There isn't a leader in this country brave enough to tell voters that we will have to endure mass amounts of economic pain in order to undo the mistakes of the last 4 decades. No one has the guts to do that.

Andrew
Posts: 52
Incept: 2014-09-24

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@Nadavegan the Elephant Party pretty much always has the same cunningly definitive plan: "squandering Majority for a term and angering their base enough so they stay home next time".

Remember when W had both House and Senate and all they did was expand government, and barely "pinky swore" they'd start cutting gov next time?
I have no faith in them planning anything further than the next election.
Frat
Posts: 10249
Incept: 2009-07-15

NKY
Online
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@Czyhorse wrote..
How soon before it all breaks? Gradually and then all at once...


Well, I've been bitching since ***** started and it was obvious the track we were on that "slow motion collapses suck!" While that was true - and still is true - yes, your point is absolutely valid. We're going to go from "mostly normal" to "OH ****!" way quicker than most ever believed possible... after the system holds together way longer than we here every thought possible ourselves.

And I've got kids, dammit. I guess it's really going to come down to how soon Whitey McWhite middle class suburban dads like me decide to throw away our supposed-morals and become the local warlords we are destined to be. Got conscience? Better be ready to have it adjusted. 5 days. All it would take for everyone to go feral is 5 days without power. 3 days even, if no expectation of it returning any time soon. If you don't have a list(s) of your most immediate threats, you're late to the game, and I suggest you get on it.

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We're ****ed. There will be no happy ending here; there is no going back to 'normal.'. There are only bad outcomes and worse outcomes. And we don't get to choose those, either.

Reason: Grammar
Andrew
Posts: 52
Incept: 2014-09-24

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@Frat things go feral in about a day without power, water, and of course the iCrap to distractify.
Dingleberry
Posts: 362
Incept: 2011-11-06

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So we have even more double digit price increases baked into the cake (or else the companies go BK).

And inflation expectations become even more solidified.

And yet the "media" tries to convince the masses otherwise?

This will be a very interesting fall and winter!


Olddad
Posts: 161
Incept: 2019-08-22

Inman
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All is well . . . Piglosi let loose with the price controls talk earlier this morning. Whoppeee!!!
Greenacr
Posts: 481
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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It is when Biden steps up to the microphone and owns all the factors related to inflation that we will know when inflation has peaked.

I wonder how long it will take Powell to become more aggressive at raising rates. They should be able to read these wholesale numbers and realize that high inflation is baked in for a long period.
Packetcap
Posts: 251
Incept: 2021-07-23

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Quote:
This is like one party saying "they're cutting something" and the other party saying "our opponents are cutting something" when in reality, the only thing "cut" is the "% of increase over last year".


This trick was being used in the 1990's. Remember when republicans "cut" school lunch programs? They just lowered the spending increase. But spending still increased.
Nadavegan
Posts: 534
Incept: 2017-05-03

The South
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@frat and @andrew, it will take a bit longer than you say before we go feral, but not much. No one wants to talk about the Continental Pipeline outage last year at this time, but I was right in the center of that affected area, and we were about one week from empty store shelves and closed businesses. 10 days sounds about right, maybe 14, once people realize they don't have enough to sustain themselves and have nowhere to go, or no way to get there.
3-market-thinker
Posts: 22
Incept: 2022-02-06

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And yet interest rates are only at 1%.

Going by the Fed meetings they will only get to 2.5% by year end at best.

Talk about late to the party.

From what I am seeing the Fed will either have to start getting serious with rate rises or go QE and stop being coy with this very serious situation.

They could quite easily lose all control of the markets if they keep this charade up.

Their paltry rate rises so far and what they have forecasted to do are not going to put out the inflation fire.

Yes, the stock market and cryptos are tanking and that's healthy but I don't think this is going to be enough to stem the tide.

If they leave this too late no matter what they do (rate rises or QE) all markets will go chaotic beyond their powers with bond yields going parabolic and stocks going bye bye.

The stupidity, ignorance & greed and perception of safety in markets will evaporate which will absolutely stun central planners.

The emperor has no clothes.

It's getting scary out there.
Jw.
Posts: 441
Incept: 2019-10-10

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@Greenacr, Trump needs to own some as well. Neither party is going to admit they did this (both parties are complicit to our massive debt), that's why Putin is the scapegoat du jour, ***** was yesterday's scapegoat.

The real question is, will either party stop spending money they don't have or will they simply drive this plane into the ground?

Financially they can handle the inflation issues they create (they are rich), until people lash out directly at the political classes that have destroyed their purchasing power they are safe from the harm they are inflicting.

While a lot of people believe that the public will lash out at the politicians, I see people destroying their neighbor before they destroy those that did the real damage. I can't imagine they have not considered this and have incorporated this into their scheme to seemingly spend us into massive debts and insane inflation.
Kfell
Posts: 229
Incept: 2014-09-09

New Hampshire
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The chorus of those wanting a weaker labor market is getting louder and louder.‌

After the recent job numbers were released last week, Bank of America analysts said in a note they are essentially "rooting against the home team" and hoping the numbers stop being so strong. As higher wages contribute to inflation, the Federal Reserve appears to agree.‌

Chair Powell keeps mentioning the relationship between the high level of job openings and wage/price inflation, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, wrote in a newsletter on Tuesday. Hes not talking to investors. Hes talking to corporate America, and his goal is to have companies essentially institute a hiring freeze and end the cycle of paying up for new hires.

So they drive up inflation and instead of reining in Congress they are attacking Joe Six Pack for getting a raise that isn't even staying up with inflation.
Jw.
Posts: 441
Incept: 2019-10-10

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@Kfell, i've noticed a lot of "layoffs in the works" chatter from big corps...

In my line of work, the equivalent of a 'skilled laborer' (cad drafter) is asking close to what project managers get. Many journeymen coming in are getting more than journeymen in the position for a few years.

It hans't been this nuts as long as I have been working.

Something has to give.

Looking at KD's post, if rates need to go up quite a bit higher than what they have been raised to date, and in order to preserve the value of the dollar is some event about to happen that will allow the Fed to raise rates and not lose the dollar's value? Or are they hoping that such and event occurs? Or is this why it appears we are pushing for a more serious war in Europe? Is a strong dollar justification for more debt spending on DC's part?

Nathanaldensr
Posts: 1274
Incept: 2009-12-19

Maryville, Tennessee, United States
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@Kfell Think of organized and strangely coincidental corproate hiring freezes as illegal wage fixing. There's no difference between globocorps freezing hiring and CEOs secretly meeting and agreeing not to poach one another's employees.
Chemman
Posts: 203
Incept: 2021-05-03

Concho Arizona
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So much for the soft landing the FED has been promising.
Andrew
Posts: 52
Incept: 2014-09-24

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I was born in 78.
I remember the parents talking about the mortgage they got shortly "before me" and while I don't remember the exact number it started with a "1" and was close to 20, but how close I forget.
(Dad passed in 2014, a few months shy of turning 70 so I can't ask him, and I doubt Mom wants to remember those days)

I'm not an economist, but my "mental math" says interest needs to get close to that rate again?
Ewtnewbie2
Posts: 174
Incept: 2021-09-13

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Sounds like @Lativski you are doing very nicely as well. I am in a poorer area that makes me the best of the best in the area, so I gather in the best this place has to offer, but AOX and 8 veneer cases are NOT something we do very often at all. My patient base is nearly fully restored, neighborhood problems, etc... definitely time to pack up and move along before I can't. Converting these assets into cash will allow my family to make better decisions going forward as we are ready to retire and enjoy life outside the big (urban) city where life is simpler.
Good luck to you!
Evilcecil
Posts: 136
Incept: 2021-09-13

Not so Maryland
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Quote:
48% annualized for unprocessed

Holy ****!

This will not end well.

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Just doin' the best I can.
Chemman
Posts: 203
Incept: 2021-05-03

Concho Arizona
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@Olddad

If you think there is a baby formula shortage now just wait for the price controls.
Tsherry
Posts: 9135
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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Andrew--18 to 19% mortgages were not at all unheard of then. One of my older brothers bought a vanilla split level, no garage in the early 80's and as I recall that he was lucky to get 18.5%. Another brother bought a place only a few years later (reagan admin) for 8.5 interest only with an enormous balloon payment 5 years in...which he was lucky to make. We bought in December '86 at 8.75, and refid four years later for 6.5, then paid it off entirely not long afterwards. PB&J and rice and beans can make a difference when you plow giant ****ing piles of money directly into principal.

We're still in that "starter home."

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circum irrumabo probantes
Prof_dilligaf
Posts: 228
Incept: 2021-09-02

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Speaking of energy, just woke up to one of those things the "electrical bananas are best!" crowd pretends doesn't EVER happen: the overnight power outage. Fortunately, I can still go out and start up my planet-destroying ICE vehicle as needs must, but for how much longer?

The cities burnin' in the summer will nothing compared to the burnin' they'll be doing in the winter as the desperate seek heat and a means to cook the juicy rat they just caught for this week's meal.
Olddad
Posts: 161
Incept: 2019-08-22

Inman
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@andrew you won't see interest (mortgage) rates like your parents had this time around. The math (debt) won't allow it.
Off_grid99
Posts: 10
Incept: 2022-02-03

Montana
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"the overnight power outage"
Wife and I made the move to completely off-grid last fall. I built out a 10KW complete solar & wind-turbine system. Works like a champ. There is cattle, deer, and antelope all around us all the time plus other farms that grow various things. I say let it rip!
Eoinw
Posts: 78
Incept: 2021-07-14

Canada
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Interesting point on the midterms. Would the Republicans be better off allowing the Dems to fix the election? Let the Democrats own what's coming 100% and they'll be bound for extinction.

Then again, Blue president and Red Congress and we could get rid of both parties! Clear the field, the Whigs are coming back!!!

Seriously, this isn't a unique dynamic to America. There's a simple reason why the entire western society has gone woke: political "Conservatives" have never stood up for any conservative values in my lifetime. At least Liberals, for all their faults, fight for and win liberal values. Turns society into Sodom & Gomorrah. That fault lies with political Conservatives who let Liberals win all the time.

Fire & brimstone for both parties!
Edward.fish
Posts: 197
Incept: 2021-12-17

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Latviski wrote..
that dream has been torched for the next gen.

@Latviski -- A good career with gainful employment has been torched for anyone Millennial or younger for a while now, this isn't a play against their success, their ability to thrive, it's a play against their ability to exist.

Proverbs16.33 wrote..
I was just explaining to a newly-more-aware-and-now-horrified co-worker about how much more of this we have to look forward to. While *****, ukraine, and politics have been shrugged off by the masses, even the normiest of the normals can't ignore the food prices at this point. I guess that's a good sign, but it sure doesn't really seem like much good is coming out of it.

@Proverbs16.33 -- I think more people are turning away from materialism to the spiritual side, which means taking a look at the moral foundations; there is a huge opportunity for we-as-a-people to turn away from injustice and to Jesus.

Nadavegan wrote..
I expect that most of the normies are waiting out election season. If the R's truly do catch a "Red Wave", they better brace themselves, because that will require action, decisively and immediately. If they do not, it will be their houses that burn, not the Dems.

@Nadavegan -- If there's one thing I'm confident about the controlled-opposition known as the Republican Party, it's in their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The last 20 years has shown us, repeatedly, that when in power they'd rather "accidentally" fumble the ball. (Probably because addressing an issue means that they would have to adopt some other talking point.)
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