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User Info Honey, What's That Smell? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Posts: 613
Incept: 2009-03-23

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IB0 wrote..
The last time the US had budget surplus was 2000 and 2001:]
You're using a fraudulent definition of "budget surplus".

The last time the National Debt decreased over the course of a fiscal year was in the middle of the Eisenhower administration.
Posts: 335
Incept: 2021-11-22

Richmond, VA
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BNSF railway. Follow the money. Keystone got ****canned within an hour of meat puppet's inauguration because of that.

Too bad almost everyone can't put those pieces together. Whatever.

Time has come for reckoning, and it will be sweet justice so long as you are positioned correctly. And I and mine are.

Si Vis Pacem, para Bellum
Posts: 14095
Incept: 2010-06-25

Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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@Joancrawford - I think I may be in love with you. Without a doubt I have a crazy crush on you. smiley

If I didn't know better I would think I had a well-spoken, salty sockpuppet. Keep up the great work.

Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Posts: 441
Incept: 2019-10-10

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Diesel is $6.60 in Santa Rosa, California at a relatively "cheap" gas station.

Does Congress believe that if the dollar is strong they can continue to spend away money they do not have?
Posts: 232
Incept: 2010-01-10

Giant Side of Texas
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Aquapura, laying cobblestones is a lost skill. Being able to bed, level and place cobbles takes a lot of knowledge. We are not talking those manufactured concrete bricks. You put them in wrong and "POP" out they come. Local city with a lot of old brick streets thought it would be a good idea to take them up and relay them. THey tried a few blocks and found out really quick there was a lot more to it than just taking up the old ones, re-bedding and placing the bricks back. Plus finding the skilled labor willing to do it?
I have one of those old-time skills everyone, and I mean everyone used to know how to do. Sharpen knives, scissors and razors. To do it freehand is like a circus trick. But in the not-too-distant past, men and women could do it because it meant the difference between eating and not eating. By the way I charge $10 to do a standard 8-inch kitchen knife with a belt grinder, $12 to do it by hand with stones. I still amazed me how many will pay to watch the show, even though it takes about the same amount of time and the results are equal. Unless you are one of the OCD people attracted to precision knife sharpening.

Blessed, Grateful and Living a Dream
Posts: 124
Incept: 2021-09-03

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The cognitive dissonance is just too high off the charts for most Americans and Westerners it seems. They will come close to starvation before they begin to think 'gee, maybe this green virtue signaling isn't a good idea after all'. FWIW, My personal observations are a few acquaintances that are beginning to have their blinders come off, but the vast majority march merrily along with tweets and instagrams glorifying their idiocracy.

They've all been trained to insist it's someone else's fault. Leftism is basically the outsourcing of moral obligations, so they're very used to blaming someone else. "The Rich" or "Putin" or whatever groups of "-ists" practicing some "-ism" or other.
Posts: 1
Incept: 2022-03-23

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Greetings! I've been lurking here since at least 2007- the glory days of Karl's mortgage implode-o-meter and daily market commentary videos. Karl, your snark alone made those video updates worth more than any subscription to IBD, WSJ, etc. Then, of course, the insight you provided was priceless, as is the insight you provide in writing here. How do we convince you to bring those back? Even once a week? Or month?

With regard to the $10,000 limit to I Bond purchases per calendar year per individual (and I apologize if this has been mentioned elsewhere), if you have a trust then you can grab another $10,000 per year with an entity account on Treasury Direct. You can also get another $5k in paper I bonds per individual per year via tax refund. So, in all a husband a wife could technically purchase $40k per calendar year between them ($10k each as individuals, $10k in trust, and $5k each on the tax refund). If you have separate trusts then make that $50k. Buying them by the end of this past April guaranteed you 7.12% on the first 6 months and 9.62% on the next 6. Any purchased now by the end of Oct will be getting 9.62% for the first 6 months. Although there is no clear visibility on the next 6 months, today's news points to more of the same. You must hold for at least 1 year and if you cash out in less than 5 years, you sacrifice the last three months of interest.
Posts: 60
Incept: 2021-02-15

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Corporate announced to us today that we will not be hiring any new contractors and will be negotiating lower rates for existing contractors due to "post-***** contraction". I **** you not. That is the term our COO used.

Capital purchases are strongly discouraged for the remainder of FY22. Oh joy, so we will be trying to do more with less. I've seen this movie before and the ending sucked.

I have a side online retail store. It's been a good source of mad money for home projects and vacations. The writing is on the wall. Non-essentials are about to get hammered. My sales are way off year-to-year and this will end up being an albatross around my neck if I don't move inventory and liquidate. Interesting times, indeed.
Posts: 5
Incept: 2022-03-31

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Really appreciate this ticker, it answered a lot of my questions I had from previous posts that I hadn't had time to ask.

I see a lot of posts about stocking food and wanted to recommend looking into whole Salamis. I have had good luck buying direct from manufacturer at like $10 a pound, prepped and ready to eat, lasts a long time and no refrigerator or cans required. I also personally like it a lot which helps. I think especially if you have a teenage boy it might be a good fit.
Posts: 1100
Incept: 2009-07-04

Retired in NC Mountains
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Back when all this started to unfold and the chip/electronics shortages started to get reported my neighbor who shares a well with me suggested we get backups of all the well components such as the control box, current monitor controller (to prevent the pump motor from damage), and the pump and pump motor. We were able to get all except the pump and pump motor until this week. Turns out there is a real serious shortage of them so if you use a well you might want to get backups in case your current system suffers a failure you will not be without water.

In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or respected its citizens' rights more as it grew in size. E.L. 2016
Posts: 9135
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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Europeans have long lived with higher gasoline prices than us due to the much higher gas taxes they have to put up with. Witness the prevalence of smaller cars over there.

Europe is very, very dense compared to the United States; one can get to a lot of places quickly due to a very robust rail network driven by that density. It doesn't work without that density...or so we've been led to believe.

That said, I think the lower half of the US population is woefully underprepared to deal with this particular inflation along with the inflation in their food prices.

Oh, you're mistaken. None of the population is prepared to deal with what's coming. For some it will be merely uncomfortable. For others who are more than uncomfortable, they will actively target anyone with assets and resources and will do what is necessary to survive.

And damn if that won't be entertaining.

Got ammo? razorwire? Shovels?

circum irrumabo probantes
Posts: 336
Incept: 2012-08-02

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Epic rant I loved it.

I like your style and your not alone in feeling that way.

Keep up the great posts !

Posts: 85
Incept: 2021-09-10

Escapee from NoVa
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Its a nightmare. I just want to put up a big sign up of my own:

smiley**** UKRAINEsmiley

Lindsay you closeted predator why dont you take it up the ass with a rusty chainsaw smiley

Hate is not the healthiest emotion but so many deserve nothing less smiley smiley

Posts: 111
Incept: 2016-02-15

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Was at Lowes today. Right as you walk in, an electric zero turn lawn mower. $7k. I only have 1 car that cost more than that.
Posts: 250
Incept: 2021-08-31

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Inflation Article:

Laugh-at-loud at inflation "slowing"

Do economists and economy reporters lie for a living?
I think I already know the answer.
Posts: 2693
Incept: 2009-09-04

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Is there a reliable measurement of price inflation that takes into account regular working people's usual needs such as paying rent/mortgage, buying a car, fixing the car, fixing things that break in the house, replacing an appliance, buying food and fuel, paying for health "insurance", etc?

Yes. Open the report our host linked and look at the line items (pg 9+). Their published top number is bull****.

Year-on-Year from the report.

Bread 9%, Beef 14%, Eggs 22%, Oranges 16%, Milk 15%
Curtains and blankets 15% each
Used cars 22%, Tires 16%, motor oil 17%
Gas of course, and we all know how that is going.
Electricity 11%

Oh sure, some things held steady or even dropped. Most of those things are luxuries. You can skip a new cellphone. You can't skip tires and keep your job, at best you can delay them a few months.

I raised my in-shop and field rates 12% in February. I'm already thinking about raising them again, or at least adding a fuel surcharge to field rates.

Posts: 310
Incept: 2021-10-06

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Franco wrote..
Surely somebody must keep an index that's honest and doesn't play bull**** games with hedonic this and substitution that.

It is not possible to have "an index that is honest". The reason for this is that no index can accurately represent anybody. Everybody spends their money differently, on different goods and services. Since the prices of goods and services rise unevenly with inflation, people are hurt differently when they spend their devalued money.

The important question to ask, which nobody is asking, is about the fundamental morality of allowing the Federal Reserve to print money out of thin air, and for the banks in the banking system to do effectively the same thing via the fractional reserve system.

I will cut to the chase, and give you the answer. Theft is immoral. Stealing is wrong. It would be wrong for you to counterfeit new money in your garage, and it is just as immoral when the Federal Reserve or a bank in the fractional reserve banking system does it.

In all cases it is theft. In all cases, it is stealing.

When new money is counterfeited (even when legal) out of thin air, it transfers wealth away from people who have previously saved money, to the people who get the newly counterfeited money first, and spend it at yesterday's prices.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" -- Milton Friedman

Friedman means the banksters did it. The FED did it. The banks in the fractional reserve banking system did it. And what they did was theft. What they did was stealing.
Posts: 30
Incept: 2022-03-02

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Quietrally wrote..
Gold and silver bugs will once again watch their PRECIOUS tumble, along with all other assets when deflation finally arrives
I have a significant portion of my insignificant wealth in the precious. About 20 years now, and I have never valued it in dollars except for a couple of times right at the moment where Ive chosen to sell some to satisfy other needs. Ive got a pretty good idea whats stored away by weight, the only time I really consider the exchange rate is when I go to buy more. I dont know what Biden intends to do to the dollar, or what Trudy intends to do these dollars, but I know that if you take the paper exchange rates out of the picture, an ounce of gold, or often even silver, has a fairly well-known value in any city and many small towns around the world, whether it be India, Columbia, Belgium, Russia, or in my case the owner of the local drugstore. Theres a part of my being that identifies with certain historical trends, and holding metal money (including some of the very low value but really cool 17th and 18th century copper coins Ive picked up along the way) just feels right to me. Of course, I also celebrated when I read that USA had considered reissuing letters of marque. I wouldnt sail under that flag, but I might consider it under some others. As I said, history and all.

Spaceace wrote..
My kids always asked me what it was like to grow up in the 70's. Well, they're learning now, except the music sucks this time
Funny that you should put it that way. Born in the 70s, came of age in the 80s. I remember listening to the evening news on the radio in a very early 80s when they give a nightly update on the price of gold and silver. I know those were tough times, my parents managed them well, and I remember us getting a new to us runabout boat for fun and fishing because we had a little to spare and somebody else needed the cash much more than they needed the boat. I also remember family and friends suddenly not having their cool cars, or their rental houses, or in some cases even their own houses. Those memories made for an interesting discussion with my boomer dad during the great financial crisis. As for the music, Im not sure its so much that music today sucks in comparison, has the fact that there is so much choice out there that its easy to have the stuff you dont like drown out what you do. Bought tickets not that long ago for my first concert since pre-*****. Really excited, its somebody that Ive listen to for a long time, but didnt bother going to see. After these last couple of years, Im going to try to take everyone of these opportunities.

Phdmemeology wrote..
Dream on. Wages up in Commie Canada have been stagnant for decades. Diesel just hit $2.099/L ($7.95/US gal) in SK. I can't imagine what the price is in BC, the California of Canada.
Agreed on Canadian wages. In 1990, I was making about $1000 a week cash working construction. At no time in my life since then have I had as much disposable purchasing power. Re fuel, I believe I saw 243.9 (about 7.10 usd/usgal) today, but I wasnt paying too much attention to diesel. Thats my wifes VW. My employer is paying about the same 2.45 per litre for premium in my work vehicle. Thank goodness its not me. As mentioned by Tappedout, Im starting to see more and more cases of gas tanks drilled (now that they all have anti-siphon valves) even in the somewhat backwards small town area that I live when Im not forced to be in the city for work. Many people know whos responsible, so I dont expect it to continue for long, if it hasnt already been stopped.

Let me reiterate: I HATE YOU! I will do everything in my power to make sure that when I go down on this ship, I'm taking as many of you mother f*ckers with me. May you all burn in eternal HELL!
I dont understand why so few other people share this sentiment. When I express anything even close to it, people around me seem both appalled and lost at trying to see my perspective. Im just keeping my mouth shut now. My time to be heard may come in the future.

And finally, on the topic of the article, I am very concerned about inflation. I hope to hell that Karl is right and they crash things, and Canada goes along. Im in construction, and Im now hearing of literal rationing in things that should NEVER have shortages, as well as being told that some supplies are being RE-priced quarterly. We dont have any more time to stop this, based on my limited experience and reading about South America, it seems to me that once the inflation cycle kicks off, these repricing intervals generally last 2-3 intervals. A couple years ago, we got annual pricing updates on many items. Then we got two 6 month intervals of biannual repricing. Now we are into quarters, for 2-3, then I fear we will see monthly for a few months. Then what, every other week? Weekly? At that point theres no one pretending we are not utterly
Posts: 230
Incept: 2012-07-28

Miramar Beach
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On average, medical care went up less than photography.
(pg. 16)
Can't be....

Posts: 173
Incept: 2021-11-18

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@Franco I don't know how accurate any of this is, but these folks claim to calculate inflation and other stats using the old method (1990 for inflation). The numbers are certainly higher.

@Tbuck @TG my CPA said it's common for people to have multiple trusts and buy as many I-bonds as you like. I don't really know anything about trusts (other than NFA) but apparently some give the trustee the ability to spin off new ones? Something along those lines. She also said "go for it" regarding my thinking with LLCs. I had exactly the same concern Karl raised but she says taxable pass-through status is irrelevant here, they're a legally separate entity and can buy/sell whatever they want, including bonds.

I did also send an inquiry to Treasury Direct about this and haven't heard back (surprise!), though I have read about many others who have done exactly this (Internet legal advice, yada yada yada). Unfortunately the TreasuryDirect phone menu system only has a few highly specific topics, and the drones who answer those lines claim they can't advise about about anything else.

Regardless, my New Mexico idea isn't the silver bullet -- they require an in-state registered agent, which means the $0 annual cost either requires physical presence or paying an agent. However, I have relatives in another state with $0 annual LLC fees so I may pursue it there. (With no annual cost, the LLC just quietly collects interest and doesn't have any annoying inflow/outflow to report or otherwise deal with.)
Posts: 10249
Incept: 2009-07-15

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When you put it that way, all those democrat congressional "retirements" can be viewed as the rats fleeing the sinking ship...

We're ****ed. There will be no happy ending here; there is no going back to 'normal.'. There are only bad outcomes and worse outcomes. And we don't get to choose those, either.
Posts: 4341
Incept: 2008-04-01
A True American Patriot!
Upper Moonbatistan
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@Joancrawford - I feel exactly the same way.

Anyone who has shown unqualified support to the ****show that is our recent world and its leaders is pretty much dead to me at this point.

I might be polite or neutral on the outside but on the inside I'm wishing they'd get hit by a space laser.

I will not buy from them, hire them, give money to them, donate to their causes, hold the door for them, buy their kids cookies, nothing.

We intentionally firmed up our estate planning last year to ensure that any money we leave does NOT go to any woke family or cause.

I can deal with friends and family who are confused, questioning, etc. Not everyone digs for info like the people here or has the capacity to do so, and the media propaganda is strong.
Good people are legit confused and as long as they have a somewhat open and rational mind I'm willing to work with them on it.

But those who have thought things through and STILL come down firmly and vocally on the side of Clown World are not people I will have anything to do with anymore.

Unfortunately this includes members of my own very small extended family. It is sad but when they start off their Christmas letter with a paean to Biden that gushes about how he will save us all they proved they are too stupid to associate with.

If they run out of food and freeze to death in their McMansions that they can no longer afford to heat I will not even blink.

"Pull your pants up, turn your hat around, and get a job"
---P.J. O'Rourke
Posts: 284
Incept: 2009-10-06

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Rangeishot wrote:
@Franco I don't know how accurate any of this is, but these folks claim to calculate inflation and other stats using the old method (1990 for inflation). The numbers are certainly higher.

I maybe wrong about this, but I believe that our host said in the past that the shadowstats inflation calculation is not credible.

Reason: bracket in the wrong place
Posts: 1274
Incept: 2009-12-19

Maryville, Tennessee, United States
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I don't blame you @Lizardqueen. Many people have chosen the side of celebrity--which Joe Biden is in their minds--and the side of pure red vs. blue thinking. They know nothing of false dichotomies. Their lives are not filled with scientific skepticism and a questioning ethic. They do what they're told and can't possibly imagine anything else.

What's sad is you have more support from people you've never met on Ticker Forum than from your own family. It makes one question what family really is.
Posts: 136
Incept: 2021-10-22

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@susanlauren Re: "pointless to work".

When you thought you've seen it all, you read this:

Look at that graph: 11mil jobs openings in march but not too many willing to take them!
Many people already figured it out; except the Fed!
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