El Crazo (Un)Employment
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions. For investment, legal or other professional advice specific to your situation contact a licensed professional in your jurisdiction.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2022-05-06 09:11 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 620 references Ignore this thread
El Crazo (Un)Employment
[Comments enabled]

Oh boy, look at the pretty pictures!

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

Watch me put lipstick on this pig!

And what a pig it is....

On the household survey, unadjusted, employment fell 115,000 last month.  Further, nearly a million (940,000) people left the labor force; despite the job market being "tight" and "we need people" more people, by a million, decided to bag it entirely and "disappear" out of "we know what they're doing" number.

That's defined, by the way, as we know you're there but you're neither employed or unemployed, the latter of which you only are if you would like a job.

But it was the internals that made me sit up today.

Typically there is either a moderating or accelerating force in these numbers that's hidden in the hours worked.  That wasn't the case this time; it was basically flat, and that's a huge adjustment because every tick is worth a huge number of jobs.  Put a couple of tenths on there and a -500,000 number doesn't look so bad, and a +500,000 number is smoking good.

Never mind the employment-population ratio, which is the one number that determines long-term stability in government financing.  It was down a tick and while one month does not a trend make it has been rising strongly.

No, the real 900lb Gorilla in this report is one nobody but myself that I'm aware of talks about, and that's the net change in participation among the educational groups.  This month there was material loss in those with Bachelor Degrees and better -- by four ticks.  This was a net loss in that group of 275,000 employed people among that segment of the population, eclipsing the net loss at the top line.

This is a recessionary print folks -- an early-stage one, but one nonetheless and yet with inflation and labor costs where it is the Fed has no choice but to continue to tighten policy and the longer and slower they go the worse this will be.

They should have put 200 basis points on Wednesday, and 200 more in the next meeting.

But of course they didn't, they won't, and as a result don't expect good things -- you're not going to get them.

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 4  First1234Last
User Info El Crazo (Un)Employment in forum [Market-Ticker]
N9lhm
Posts: 114
Incept: 2010-01-28

South Bend, IN
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I always enjoyed seeing the 'we are screwed' graphs that you posted, showing the change in actual participation rate numbers y-o-y, instead of the unemployment rate numbers that did not count those that stopping looking for a job, etc. It was a much more realistic picture of what was actually going on in the job market.
Calrissian
Posts: 82
Incept: 2021-04-12

London, UK
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Rate hike'3 June 15th
Rate hike'4 July 27th
--
I just can't see them raising beyond there, as by then... we'll get Q2 GDP, which will surely also be negative, and we'll officially be in recession.
--

'Cassandra Burry', and a few others are touting a grand collapse of 80/90% across the next few years. Its an appealing scenario... from a buying perspective.

I'm still more concerned about the global food supply chain, but few want to hear about that.

*have a good weekend!
Tickerguy
Posts: 184146
Incept: 2007-06-26
Avatar
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Watch the 3 month bill @Calrissian.

For the truth on what really happens go over to Fred and pull that up with the FFR and 3-month bill on top of it, maximum time, and then scroll through it.

An utterly remarkable fact will stand out real fast, and do remember that FFR is an overnight rate.

All the "Fed controls all this" glad-handing, if you do this, will rapidly melt away like a snowball in Hell.

We're on the express elevator..... to Hell.... right now.

----------
Civil Society requires 99%+ consent.
Stop consenting and it is forced to stop. Always.
No violence required.
Frat
Posts: 10331
Incept: 2009-07-15
Avatar

NKY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
This month there was material loss in those with Bachelor Degrees and better -- by four ticks. This was a net loss in that group of 275,000 employed people among that segment of the population, eclipsing the net loss at the top line.


What's your read on this? Boomers saying "Fuck it, I'm done?" Dual-income families having one say the same? Straight out dead people?

I'm trying to figure out why (a lot) more supposedly-educated people decided it was time to join the ranks of the not-working, or if it was even a choice.

I can see why the lower-educational levels found more employment, though; they can't afford NOT to with Brandon's inflationary environment.

----------
We're fucked. There will be no happy ending here; there is no going back to 'normal.'. There are only bad outcomes and worse outcomes. And we don't get to choose those, either.
Mvj
Posts: 2265
Incept: 2007-07-30

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Tickerguy it amazes me how you analyze data and be much ahead of the curve. Thank you very much for what you all do. Here in India all are just screaming buy the dip. I feel very lucky to be here on the forum.
Tickerguy
Posts: 184146
Incept: 2007-06-26
Avatar
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
All three @Frat.

----------
Civil Society requires 99%+ consent.
Stop consenting and it is forced to stop. Always.
No violence required.
Greenacr
Posts: 493
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This 428K print was out of bed with the ADP report and Challenger is beginning to show an increase in Layoffs. In the real world we still can't get people in the door and when we do, we can't get them to stay.

I'm sure Biden will be at the podium by noon touting the jobs report and saying all is well.

The government wouldn't lie to us or shade the truth would they
Misemeout
Posts: 5
Incept: 2021-09-12

Salt Lake
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Have to lay off a bunch of mortgage brokers. Refinancing is going to be non existent.
Tappedout
Posts: 83
Incept: 2020-09-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
One more category I'm seeing and living:

People who are saying F- it. I'm done with playing by the rules. I see everyone else not playing by the rules, and nothing is happening to them.

Cash only. Off the grid. Come and get me, but you have to figure out what I'm doing first, and then find me.

Until then, Pi$$ off. I'm not giving you money to give to Ukrainians, or anyone else.
Jesjohn94
Posts: 688
Incept: 2019-05-07

Atlanta
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I hopes rates do rise a lot more as that should help flush down the toilet a lot of our bubbles driven by emergency near zero interest rates well over a decade after the emergency. Maybe they'll be forced to do it but we all know they don't want to. My suspicion is the Fed is spending more time thinking about how they can lower interest rates as soon as possible than they are on actions to get inflation under control. Like all our institutions they are corrupt. Russia and China are corrupt too but at least they are honest about it.
Supertruckertom
Posts: 6949
Incept: 2010-11-07
Avatar

USA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Ha.

GA DOL planning a 50% RIF July 1 due to the legislature reallocating budget to the Technical College System that has declining enrollment.

After all Covid is over, UE is at 4%.
Also closing most field offices.
Going to call centers and online only. Maybe 2 regional offices.
Child Labor moving to Technical College System.
Automated Child work permit system will be taken offline.
Movie industry uses it here extensively.
TCSG has not announced how they will implement that or any other programs being moved.
They will use an outside vendor to handle online work search functions.

Sounds like perfect timing.



----------
Preparing to go Hunting.
Disgusted
Posts: 310
Incept: 2021-07-20

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep, Tappedout; I'm seeing the same thing especially with guys that are in the trades. A lot of referral type business for home repair, auto repair, etc, cash only, FUCK the gooberment. The numbers that .gov puts out are complete bullshit. I don't give a fuck what they say on anything, and I can't wait for the bottom to fall out of the ponzi stawk market. It's really going to be fun to watch all the dumbfucks that thought they were going to be "rich", eat the big shit sandwich. How's that 401K, that's now a 101K; moron. Let's hope it's in the fall so the Dims get full blame and go extinct. Maybe that's one reason they keep trying to push a full scale war as a distraction. They're so desperate, they're willing to risk thermonuclear war to distract from the total meltdown of the economy. That's some serious desperation. Fuck them all to hell.
Packetcap
Posts: 264
Incept: 2021-07-23

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I can confirm that white collar jobs being advertised are being pulled as company stock prices plummet.

Nothing makes corporate assholes clench like poor stock performance.
Mannfm11
Posts: 8121
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What do you expect from liars and terrorists. Money has been devalued so much people don't know what they are getting paid. People come back into the market when the economy is good and it is productive. Same trend as Obama.

I went to college when full employment was described as 4%. By 1980, that figure had been moved to 6%. Times were different. The supply of bodies was limitless, with boomers and more women pouring into the system. We are having trouble finding bodies for an over stimulated supply disreupted economy, as the same unlimited 1980's pool is now leaving. Some have been terrorized by CV19. Others have decided they have had enough, think they have enough savings and are taking early social security or, if the can, disability.

We have a group running the country that has a 6 year olds understanding of economics. The red head witch is childing companies for raising prices while they are throwing sand in the gears. They blame oil companies for tight supplies, while everything they have done, including pushing policy to start the Ukraine war, has interrupted supply. We have a gay transportation secretary who takes leave to adopt a baby while there is a supply chain crisis, created in part by the same insane policies being run in California. They will probably need to find a new port. These are the same people run terror campaigns to allow killing babies. Kiddie car drivers trying to drive semi trucks.

What we have is an economy that doesn't work. They clearly muddied the statistics by turning a real loss into an imaginary gain. Labor is tight, in part due to productivity destruction, mass stimulus creating the need, not economic power. The stimulus is leaking out as higher prices.

For the average bottom feeder employee, $9 an hour 3 years ago needs to be $15 today. I buy a lot of basics. Some haven't changed much. Others have gone up 50% or more. My electricity is based on natural gas prices, month to month. Gas was $2/1000 for a long time. I chose not to pay the insurance and benefitted for a decade or more. It is $8 now, It is the primary fuel for electricity here, so there is no way around it. The destruction of Russian supply will push it higher, along with the effects of Biden regulation, which destroyed more supply. Gas is now $4 here and it is likely going to $6 by the end of the year, as idiots are running policy. Bacon is over $5 a pound in 4 pound packs. I froze a supply at $3 and not a buyer. Then we have rent, inflated by supply chain problems and speculation plus taxes and insurance. Property insurance is a casualty of zero interest and higher costs, as risk is offset by the value of the float. Eating, transportation and housing are necessities. $15 was a magic wage for a lot of low income people, a goal, which is why it was mentioned as a minimum. The fast food joints are paying it here and most have help wanted signs. $15 is the new $9.

How can you measure employment when most people are clueless what they are getting paid? How can you run a business in an insane political system, where pay demands are high and the administration chides you for raising prices?

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Ring_main
Posts: 83
Incept: 2012-01-16

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
TG, I see the fed funds rate following the TB3MS at a slight lag across the last 22 years, and the 3 month rate has a sudden and increasing slope.

Takeaways: yields are not dependent on FFR and there's significant increase in risk on the horizon?
Daw39
Posts: 44
Incept: 2009-08-23

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl, can you print the graph you referenced earlier? ( FFR and 3-month bill on top of it, maximum time). once I see it I will be able to recreate and follow.

#2 If you cannot work with your hands your screwed! The underground economy is alive and well.

#3 Niece's husband ( mid 30's) calls , water heater problems, I tell him "send me a picture of the controls". Pilot out, I walk him through the lighting the pilot. above the picture he sent, the instructions for lighting the pilot. My opinion, that generation will take most of the casualties.
Njca
Posts: 169
Incept: 2018-10-16

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
More and more layoffs in biotech, the classic revenueless, imagine if you will, let's do yet another raise, millions for the connected execs, story stock sector.
Egallred
Posts: 58
Incept: 2020-08-27

PNW
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
I'm trying to figure out why (a lot) more supposedly-educated people decided it was time to join the ranks of the not-working, or if it was even a choice.


I personally know a bunch of people that delayed retirement due to the pandemic that are now jumping ship. They were in the "Can't go anywhere so may as well keep getting paid" bucket and with travel restrictions lifting they are calling it a career.
Tickerguy
Posts: 184146
Incept: 2007-06-26
Avatar
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This....
Inline

----------
Civil Society requires 99%+ consent.
Stop consenting and it is forced to stop. Always.
No violence required.
Lizardqueen
Posts: 4363
Incept: 2008-04-01
Avatar
A True American Patriot!
Upper Moonbatistan
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mannfm11, add to that entirely capricious governing bodies at the local, state and federal levels who, with a stroke of a pen hell bent on ideology and "feelings", can erase your entire business with nary a thought for what the fallout will be. Energy and rental real estate are the two that immediately come to mind.

----------
"Pull your pants up, turn your hat around, and get a job"
---P.J. O'Rourke
Vernonb
Posts: 2855
Incept: 2009-06-03
Avatar

East of Sheol
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Getting scary....

How long before this tyrant Biden enacts outright slavery? You get fined or imprisoned for leaving your job or failing to take employment. Meanwhile the "job" is no longer feeding your family or paying transportation cost to work.

This evil, delusional, idiot is capable of making such a proclamation. At least people should know where to find their locally appointed would be "masters."

My thought for today is "extreme prejudice."


I can see one of these willing CEOs after such a proclamation attempting to enforce it while at same time claiming they had no choice but they will "respect" the employees.

You know that is ok but two can play that game Slaves that ultimately revolted weren't left with a choice either.


----------
"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Packetcap
Posts: 264
Incept: 2021-07-23

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@lizardqueen

You'd have to be completely insane to open a physical storefront right now. You just saw how government can kill your business with a stroke of the pen, no accountability, and no opposition. Now we're headed into a recessionary environment that will likely kill what was weakened.

Never before was a business risk "gov will shut down everything due to a head cold"

Keepingmyoptions
Posts: 285
Incept: 2007-10-21

CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What I want to know is what happened to the recent one million plus (maybe plus again) illegal immigrants? Did they all go into leisure and hospitality? Or are they on the unemployment roles?

Figures? What do they mean?

----------
We are in a bicycle economy. The only way to stay solvent is to keep trading, or tip over.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 4582
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Make no mistake, while it may have not registered with the unwashed masses, a LOT of people have realized how easily some government flunkies can: close your business, tell you that you cannot travel, freeze all of your financial assets, etc...

Combine that with boomer demographics, people having worked an extra year due to covid like mentioned above, along with the FED keeping rates ultra-low for an extended period of time allowing excess leverage to flow into every nook-and-cranny of the economy and we are in for a real shit storm.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 4  First1234Last