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 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
Quantum 1k posts, incept 2021-05-18
2021-12-28 08:27:16

Inflation won't be hyper in the wheelbarrows sense, but I expect it will be worse in 2022. I was discussing this with someone over the weekend and mentioned that a $6 Big Mac Value Meal would cost about $37 after 20 years of 10% inflation per year. If, on the other hand, inflation starts at 10% per year and increases by 10% per year (ie, 11% in year 2, 12.1% in year 3), then the same benchmark would be $500 in 20 years... yet for a number of years, the differences between the two would seem minor (eg, in 5 years it'd be $8.78 or $9.31).

The Dec. FOMC delivered what I expected--no meaningful action, but promises to get tough in 2022. I expect minimal action in 2022, maybe targeting 0.25% for the discount rate sometime before March to provide an impression of seriousness, but nothing meaningful.

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Our God, will you not judge them? For we have no power to face this great multitude that is attacking us. We do not know what to do, but our eyes are on you. --2 Chron. 20:12
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