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 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
Lavalle 155 posts, incept 2021-10-22
2021-12-28 08:26:12

@Keenan
If Carole Roth is correct in her interpretation, we are going into communism, where a few commie party-affiliated families will own everything in the economy (production, real estate, land, resources).

History books showed us how successful those communist countries were, the last example being Venezuela. But one need to learn from history ... a tough sell for the real progressives running the WEF!

Crazymike 197 posts, incept 2010-07-21
2021-12-28 08:26:40

@Bluto
I bought an old 1975 Airstream 27 footer and have had it repaired/restored to use again. Only about $15K in it and it's doing great.

I've done some of the interior work myself and had the experts restore/repair the core systems like the water, electrics, propane lines etc, even had some additions put in like solar panels and an Onan diesel generator.

Set up the towing truck with an external tool box for the hoses, tools, chocks etc. Bed has a rack over it and I put a canoe up there. bed toolbox is painted green to match the cab of the truck so it looks custom/neat.

A lot of camping grounds and RV parks do NOT let in older RVs/Trailers and schoolies but my Airstream looks clean so I've NEVER had an issue getting in.

I've seen a rise in some folks building their own pickup campers here lately too.

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"The fall of people, groups and nations has not been from plague, famine, war, depression or any great calamity..their fall can be traced to one thing...they started to believe their own bull****."- M
Tritumi 2k posts, incept 2008-11-29
2021-12-28 08:27:13

@Eleua, I agree re the Maxwell trial. Having had a very slight connection with the old man and a son, the family is a black box. Add Epstein's earlier slipping the noose with a nod and intel wink. There may be some pervs thrown to the fire a sacrifice, but the entire affair will remain dark.

IMHO only Durham can blow the lid off the box from a different weak point. like someone needing a trade.

Otherwise, TG 2022 surprises to the optimistic side. Perhaps from the periphery overseas my view is too
darkly tilted.

The topic not discussed on this side of the divide perhaps needs some predicting over there.
Quantum 941 posts, incept 2021-05-18
2021-12-28 08:27:16

Inflation won't be hyper in the wheelbarrows sense, but I expect it will be worse in 2022. I was discussing this with someone over the weekend and mentioned that a $6 Big Mac Value Meal would cost about $37 after 20 years of 10% inflation per year. If, on the other hand, inflation starts at 10% per year and increases by 10% per year (ie, 11% in year 2, 12.1% in year 3), then the same benchmark would be $500 in 20 years... yet for a number of years, the differences between the two would seem minor (eg, in 5 years it'd be $8.78 or $9.31).

The Dec. FOMC delivered what I expected--no meaningful action, but promises to get tough in 2022. I expect minimal action in 2022, maybe targeting 0.25% for the discount rate sometime before March to provide an impression of seriousness, but nothing meaningful.

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Our God, will you not judge them? For we have no power to face this great multitude that is attacking us. We do not know what to do, but our eyes are on you. --2 Chron. 20:12
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2021-12-28 08:27:36

I am going to cherry-pick a few predictions.


Inflation will not calm down.
There seems to be quite a lag with inflation, both in its starting and stopping. If, and its a big if, there is a reduction in inflation it will not show up until the last quarter. So, I agree with your prediction. If the Fed shows some balls, 2023 will be the year inflation calms down.

The Democrats are going to get obliterated in the midterms.
100%. November is 11 months away and a lot can happen in politics in 11 months. With that said, I agree with your prediction.

The Fed is going to get forced into actual liquidity drains.
I agree even though the Fed may find itself with two undesirable choices. Keep the housing/stock market going by keeping rates low, versus contain inflation by raising rates.

The equity market is extremely vulnerable over the next six to nine months.
Given that a roughly 33% pullback is needed to get the S&P 500 back to where it was pre-pandemic, there is a high likelihood of a 25% pullback this year. Especially since so much of the gains can be attributed to 10 stocks. If there is, I will slowly be buying back in. <This prediction, coupled with the one above, are my favorite two and, what I see happening this year.>

There is no short-term supply chain relief coming.
I agree. The term lead-time is one that most people hear and ignore. Looks like they should have paid more attention. The fragility of hundreds of suppliers spread over hundreds of countries has finally become evident.

The blue hives are in particularly-serious trouble.
Now we see what happens when you make long-term, firm promises based on dodgy, unrealistic forecasts.
This is especially true when you cannot prevent the people you are trying to take from, from moving.

Biden is finished this year.
Only if his issues get much worse. The people handling Biden love running the country. No way they give that up easily.

Housing, as a bubble, is done.
At the margin housing is a leverage game, even with a traditional 10% down mortgage you are getting 10x leverage. If rates go up, house prices go down. The government making loans more easily available actually makes house prices go up, the opposite of its stated goal of making houses more affordable.

Trump is done, and so are those who cling to him.
Trump and the Trumpsters experience a big fade-away this year. It is time to move on.

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave
Themortgagedude 12k posts, incept 2007-12-17
2021-12-28 08:28:33

As for Trump is done??? The problem with that is - Who's gonna beat him? Like you say the bench is pretty short.

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I think its time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that our founding fathers intended for us. Ronald Reagan 1964
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-28 08:39:15

@Crazymike
Quote:
Set up the towing truck....


Tried to buy a new truck lately? Good luck.

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"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-28 08:40:20

Well @Bluto it seems that the 2002 Suburban in my driveway may look like shit but by God, mechanically its fine and there's not all that much that can break and totally fuck it up to the point that it won't run. Oh, and did I mention that provided you are properly set up it has a 12k GCWR? Yeah, it's a 45mph vehicle with 7k behind it up a significant grade, but then again so is that 80k gross 18 wheel truck with a screaming turbocharger under the hood, so I'm perfectly ok with not turning my transmission into a hunk of molten metal.

And if something DOES break the local pick-n-pull PROBABLY has one that is serviceable. Got toolbox?

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."

Djsnola 353 posts, incept 2009-03-16
2021-12-28 10:05:42

@Themortgagedude

certainly he polls the highest right now simply because of his name recognition. Sort of like Jeb Bush did early in 2015 before trump entered. Its anecdotal but myself included, many former trump supporters are ready for something new in 2024 and that number is growing daily. Plus hes just too old to me. We need leaders in their 40s and 50s again. Another anecdote is the attendance that he had at an event in Orlando this month. Nothing near what he was getting before 2021. The brand is souring and souring fast. The double edged sword of personality driven brands is that they can take a while to tarnish but when they do they collapse quickly.
Ckaminski 7k posts, incept 2011-04-08
2021-12-28 10:40:24

Actual, it would be interesting if the House were to somehow force the natural born citizen angle on Kamala to install Pelosi if Biden were to die or retire.

Could be an interesting way to make it happen.

It could open the floodgates on some Obama era stuff, but given that anything criminal has the statute of limitations running out on it I doubt any of that backfires on them. No matter what, congress and scotus aren't going to waste time to try and unwind Obamas signatures.

Larryboy 607 posts, incept 2012-12-29
2021-12-28 11:55:03

@Heartlander
Quote:
Why is getting him to the 2-year mark important?

Then the next 2 years of Harris dont count as her first term and she can be president for 10 years
Hungrylion 95 posts, incept 2021-04-30
2021-12-28 12:00:25

I am surprised that Karl did not make this as one of his predictions for 2022:

CYBERATTACK

Since Powell in april 2021 said

Cyberattacks are the number-one threat to the global financial system, Fed chair says

https://www.cnn.com.com/2.282.1/static/u....

Updated 1:31 PM ET, Mon April 12, 2021

In an interview that aired on CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday, Powell said the world has changed substantially since the days of the Great Recession.
"I would say that the risk that we keep our eyes on the most now is cyber risk," Powell told CBS. "So you would worry about a cyber event. That's something that many, many government agencies, including the Fed and all large private businesses and all large private financial companies in particular, monitor very carefully, invest heavily in. And that's really where the risk I would say is now, rather than something that looked like the global financial crisis."

And now recently on Dec 09, we have this story

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/e....

EXCLUSIVE IMF, 10 countries simulate cyberattack on global financial system

December 9, 2021

ERUSALEM, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Israel on Thursday led a 10-country simulation of a major cyberattack on the global financial system in an attempt to increase cooperation that could help to minimise any potential damage to financial markets and banks.

The simulated "war game", as Israel's Finance Ministry called it and planned over the past year, evolved over 10 days, with sensitive data emerging on the Dark Web. The simulation also used fake news reports that in the scenario caused chaos in global markets and a run on banks.

The simulation -- likely caused by what officials called "sophisticated" players -- featured several types of attacks that impacted global foreign exchange and bond markets, liquidity, integrity of data and transactions between importers and exporters.

"These events are creating havoc in the financial markets," said a narrator of a film shown to the participants as part of the simulation and seen by Reuters.

Israeli government officials said that such threats are possible in the wake of the many high-profile cyberattacks on large companies, and that the only way to contain any damage is through global cooperation since current cyber security is not always strong enough.

"Attackers are 10 steps ahead of the defender," Micha Weis, financial cyber manager at Israel's Finance Ministry, told Reuters.

Participants in the initiative, called "Collective Strength", included treasury officials from Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Thailand, as well as representatives from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Bank of International Settlements.

"The banks are appealing for emergency liquidity assistance in a multitude of currencies to put a halt to the chaos as counterparties withdraw their funds and limit access to liquidity, leaving the banks in disarray and ruin," the narrator said.

The participants discussed multilateral policies to respond to the crisis, including a coordinated bank holiday, debt repayment grace periods, SWAP/REPO agreements and coordinated delinking from major currencies.

.....

Since no one else has mentioned this, I am going to take ownership as a prediction for 2022. I don't see how its tin and I am kinda surprised there hasn't been a ticker on the Dec 09 article.

This could be a way to implement a sudden change in reserve currency status, bail-ins, ...and so what do you think?


Keenan 532 posts, incept 2013-01-11
2021-12-28 12:28:05

@Lavelle and @Darqfybr:

Connected big investment pools seem to be the government favored entities as much as select families. Or, these financial firms are the powers actually in charge:

https://www.dailysignal.com/2021/11/05/4....


History shows us episodes of societal madness - the witch trials of late 1600s America and also in parts of Europe; Germany 1930s-45; Russia 1917-91; Mao's "Cultural Revolution"; Venezuela today, etc. The madness persists until the population recovers its collective sense, or until a war ends it.

You may be interested to investigate Belgian professor Mattias Desmet's discussion of "Mass Formation Psychosis"
Dev96 22 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2021-12-28 12:52:05

It's nice to see I'm not the only one understanding DeSantis. Too few pay attention to his history and the history of Florida red politicians.

Otherwise I think your on the money... Except for the cat, never trust a cat! lol
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-28 13:20:24

I think DeSantis will be the nominee in 2024, especially if is re-elected by a huge margin here in Florida next year. Assuming things don't get a lot worse. If they do, we could be looking at a Pinochet-type leader that hasn't emerged yet.

Other possible candidates:

Condi Rice: Too close to the Bush clan. And where has she been for the last 10 years?

Ben Carson: Would probably make a good president in a sane and rational country, but we need someone more aggressive

Greg Abbott: Seems to be one step behind DeSantis on most issues. "All hat, no cattle".

Ted Cruz: Nope. No appeal to the blue collar folks that Trump had, and he barely won his Senate race in 2018.

Tom Cotton: Nope. Too war-hawkish

Rand Paul: Same comment as with Carson.

Scott Walker: I think he is one of the stronger candidates, but where has he been the last few years?

Nikki Haley: No way. Bush in heels.

Kristi Noem: Would be great in the cabinet, but I don't think she is as strong or conservative or smart as DeSantis

DeSantis seems to be like Trump without Trump's bad personality attributes. And I think he is more libertarian-ish too, which is a plus.

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"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-28 13:21:39

No he isn't... he's as authoritarian as Biden!

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Veeger 1k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2021-12-28 13:36:29

If I had to pick a viable Republigan, I go Candace Owens. She ticks the 'correct' boxes, but more importantly, she's pretty smart and definitely can hold her own with media and lefties.

Nonetheless, I'm pretty fed up with going for the ballot box. If it's any from @Bluto's list, I ain't voting anyway.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-28 13:36:47

I will (again) vote for Beelzebub before I vote for DeSATAN.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Jollyrogers 57 posts, incept 2012-07-30
2021-12-28 14:03:56

Quote:
Trump was HATED in the military officer corp.


Disagree, though in the Flag/General officer ranks, you are correct.
Traelin0 563 posts, incept 2021-01-28
2021-12-28 14:05:36

Proverbs16.33 wrote..
My big question is to the strong position against hyperinflation. I recently read a couple books on Zimbabwe's experiences and they were very sobering. I'm just wondering if the US is "too big to fail" along those lines, or else why will the inflation not go parabolic? I definitely see it continuing to go up, my question is as to why not hit hyper status...

70% of currency in circulation is OCONUS. Anything digital (i.e. not in your physical possession) is not under your control.

Consider what happens when one chucks a stone into a pond. The resultant waves ripple outward. Such is how we exported inflation. Now, reverse that process (what we're about to go through now) and one will observe its pain begin on the periphery. Eventually you get a Waterfall event in the core, but at that point the average Murican will view hyperinflation as something they WISH they were experiencing, instead of return to barter and feudalism.
Traelin0 563 posts, incept 2021-01-28
2021-12-28 14:05:51

Smokeyblonde13 wrote..
The question regarding real estate when things go south (and they will) is while Blackrock, Gates, et al allegedly "own" all sorts of property - can they defend that ownership? Especially on a large-scale basis? A few dedicated and resourceful folks all over the country would give lie to the alleged ownership, cause you don't own what you don't possess and can't defend.

Bingo. No, they can't defend it. When you have an organized posses issuing bounties for anyone who guards that property, its owners, or the owners' families, well...

That's where we're headed. And it is now NECESSARY because you can't just skip to the dawn without traversing the moonless midnight!
Traelin0 563 posts, incept 2021-01-28
2021-12-28 14:06:03

Veeger wrote..
If I had to pick a viable Republigan, I go Candace Owens. She ticks the 'correct' boxes, but more importantly, she's pretty smart and definitely can hold her own with media and lefties.

Sorry but no. Adam was just as responsible as Eve was for eating the apple. At some point we've gotta stop blaming women (raw emotions) for getting us to where we are. Guess who allowed this garbage to fester??? I can no more identify with the pain of my wife's breast cancer and the resultant hair loss (a HUGE part of her identity) than a woman can identity with turning off her emotions in the most dire of crises. We're bent over a rather large barrel in this country and we need the sex that God endowed with reason as the primary motivator.
Traelin0 563 posts, incept 2021-01-28
2021-12-28 14:22:15

Bluto wrote..
Kristi Noem: Would be great in the cabinet, but I don't think she is as strong or conservative or smart as DeSantis

I read this wrong the first time and was about to give you a +1000.
Veeger 1k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2021-12-28 14:22:32

@Traelin0

There's a difference between picking somebody (as in prognosticating on a possible candidate likely to be acceptable to the masses) and actually Voting for same.

The biggest mistake of the Trumpsters is that they are all in for the man and cannot see the flaws. Unfortunately, Anyone will have the flaws and they will be trying to work in a broken system. I don't see how good results can reasonably be expected at this point, no matter the party or the candidate.

The task at hand, should we choose to accept it, is to see how best we can optimally function in an adverse environment.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Traelin0 563 posts, incept 2021-01-28
2021-12-28 15:27:30

Veeger wrote..
The biggest mistake of the Trumpsters is that they are all in for the man and cannot see the flaws. Unfortunately, Anyone will have the flaws and they will be trying to work in a broken system. I don't see how good results can reasonably be expected at this point, no matter the party or the candidate.

I can't seem to shake the "save a soul" phase. I want so much to wake people up to reality, but try as I might, I can't force them to swallow the red pill. I still get distressed over it. However, those times are far less frequent, and I find myself telling those same folks to suck up their shit decisions and don't become a burden on the few of us who actually hear the sound of inevitability in the train tunnel.
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