@Tickerguy

Quote:

They only need to lose ONE Senate seat, and they will. That's basically assured. They're in trouble on the calendar (Senate cycle) to start with and this hasn't been a good year.

I think 2024 is when the Dems have a rough Senate cycle with WV, MT, OH, MI, and WI seats on the table.

2022 in the Senate would have been brutal for the GOP if Trump remained in office, with many seats in swing states (PA, NC, WI) up for election.

Anyway, the Republicans will probably flip Arizona this year, and Georgia as well unless Herschel Walker's candidacy implodes. I put Nevada at 50/50. That state has "overperformed" for the Dems they last several cycles, but like you said, it is a bad year for the Dems. New Hampshire will be tougher. I think they would have flipped it if Governor Sununu ran, but he decided not to run. But a decent candidate could still flip that seat. After that, you get into "really hard" territory, like Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Oregon, Washington.

On the other side, the GOP has to defend open seats in NC and PA, as well as several other states. Maybe WI also if Ron Johnson retires. There is the very real chance the GOP blows some of these races by nominating a Q-tard. But otherwise, they should carry them because it will be a bad year for the dems.

So I think 52-48 is spot on....

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