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User Info Economic Fallout And Supply in forum [Market-Ticker]
Tsherry
Posts: 6835
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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@Susanlauren:
Quote:
Meanwhile, I am watching people around me who have lived the finer things in life (all the luxuries) now in real difficult decision making situations because of the vaxx mandates.


Hard-hearted jerk that I can be sometimes, let me take out that tiny little violin and play some weepy music for them. 'Cry Me A River' comes to mind. Ella can really make you cry with that.

They made their beds. I'm related to people like that. People that have millions of dollars but who still carry a 100K mortgage for 'tax reasons'. People that buy $75K boats and use them twice a year. I could go on, but choir and all. Also, they had the luxuries, but did not give themselves the luxury of studying the ramifications of an untested injection before taking it?

Huh. That is too bad. Hope no one sells them on some modern day thalidomide...oh, wait!

Quote:
don't know if anyone really knows the true cost of items today - from stocks, to houses, to groceries, to companies, to consumer goods.


This may be the scariest, and most accurate thing I've not really spent much time thinking about, but you are absolutely correct.

Right now I can buy all kinds of things used, but still perfectly operational, functional and with long service lives, for less-than-cents-on-the-dollar. Tools. Clothing. Furniture. Appliances. There is very little to no competition.

If I try to buy those same things new, I spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on items almost always of inferior quality with much shorter service lives than the used item.

The 'true' costs seem inverted. We're paying for little to no return on the expenditure, and it seems like soon we will be paying a negative, if that makes any sense in a senseless society.

New stuff is great, don't get me wrong, but for something I use rarely? No. My 'new' stuff is only that until I unpack it.

Susanlauren
Posts: 728
Incept: 2021-05-01


Online
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@Tsherry
You understand. It is all about status symbols and keeping up with the Joneses. I have everything I need and a good number of things that I want. I am now the one to be envied in this world gone mad scenario. I think we will soon find out who is swimming without any swim trunks when the tide goes out.
Invisiblesun
Posts: 319
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
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@Susanlauren

I expect the next few years to be eye-opening as the "sure thing" of ever lower mortgage rates and free FED money goes absent. The Buffett line about seeing who is swimming naked when the tide goes out comes to mind (actually kind of a nonsensical quote for those who do swim where tides are a thing)

In any case, financial freedom, like all freedom, is a great thing. I've been fortunate to have good steady work for the past 18 years. The next few months could change that, although I am confident no matter my source of income, or lack of it, I will be able to make good use of my time. Money, used wisely, increases our life options. Used unwisely it binds us.

But even those without flexibility have a say - they may have to accept the coercion but they won't be happy about it. And they will remember how they were manipulated and they will act accordingly, even if they appear to be compliant.


Little_eddie
Posts: 2468
Incept: 2009-04-30

Delaware
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Retirement accounts: I always remember that all my savings and investment accounts are just someone else's debt owned to me.

And they can always go bankrupted.

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We live in an ENERGY based economy, Money is just how we keep score. Primary Energy growth is now negative and it won't get any better. ITEOFWAWKI

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin
Greenacr
Posts: 317
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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The company I work for is one of the Book Printers in the World. We received this in a note from our key paper supplier/broker:

"With the gas crisis worsening by the day, some energy-intensive companies have shuttered operations because theyre becoming too expensive to run. With Europes stockpiles at their lowest seasonal level in more than a decade, deliveries from Russia limited and global competition for liquefied natural gas intense, the squeeze will only worsen as winter approaches."

The above has resulted in $100 - $150 Euro Price surcharges on all coated ground wood/free sheet. Over 40 percent of our paper comes from Europe.

In addition, the note said:

"The inflationary pressure on paper and the transportation system is unprecedented. The lack of carriers is causing major disruptions to the delivery supply-chain."

North American paper companies are also signaling similar increases.

Agree with you Karl that there is a big dislocation coming.
Wakeupcall
Posts: 6924
Incept: 2009-06-08

Hampton Roads, VA
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I dont think Argentina ever did that. Yes they proposed it in 2008 and again in 2018, but I dont see where they followed through.

Think about it though. Most retirements accounts are in stocks and bonds and cds. If the government confiscates them because it needs the money, what exactly do you think would happen to the stock market, bond market and banks and credit unions? Doubtful it would happen.

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"P**** Pfizer
"The strongest memory is weaker than the palest ink" Chinese proverb
"The enemy of my enemy is my candidate" Random commenter
"We have the government we deserve"
Ee4fire
Posts: 617
Incept: 2011-03-24

Washington, DC
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The big question: "When will the SHTF?"

I am sure it already has, but when do the markets and economy actually get kicked in the a$$?

Also, I am reading that China's economy has or will have the SHTF. Not much reporting on the news about China's troubles. Just they are doing military exercises to scare Taiwan.

The other lynch pin in our economy is when will the US Dollar be dropped as the world's reserve currency and what will replace it? With all this spending Biden and CONgress want to print money, it has to be coming sooner rather than later. I am sure many of these countries are tired of the value of their dollar reserves dropping like a rock with the devaluation of the dollar by the FRB and US Gov't.



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(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select your law, and the desired legislation slides out." Fred Reed. Some editting by me.


Tritumi
Posts: 414
Incept: 2008-11-29

tokyo
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Two medical anecdotes: from Saturday and getting the flu vaccine, overheard conversation among clinic staff that vaccine supplies are limited and are thus being doled out carefully with reservations required.

From today: at cardio guys clinic learned that some imported pharmaceuticals and ingredients have become scarce with supply chain issues cited. Nothing affecting me at present.
34werx
Posts: 43
Incept: 2020-11-29

Charlotte, NC
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Grf wrote..
They stole peoples retirement accounts in Argentina IIRC and the people did nothing. So they wont do **** here either. Sheep


Those retirement accounts they stole were not anything of real value anyway. They were just more debts someone else owed to you, also a holder of nothing but debt. You only stand to gain something if they can pay. What if they decide to tell you: FU sucker? Sue them? Let me know how that works out.
Wayiwalk
Posts: 243
Incept: 2016-11-09

New Yersey
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TSherry, I hear you.

I'm a discount (Walmart sometimes, Kohls) clothes buying, Goodwill Shopping (kitchen goods, stuff made of steel that is BEELT TO LAST), ebay buying, and most of all, sweat-equity living guy.

Neighbors must get a little bile bubble up in their throat when they see my '06 Cobalt in the driveway, but it is my proudest inanimate goods accomplishment, having brought it back from the dead this year while giving my kids auto repair lessons.

I can't say I won in the mortgage department, putting kids through college makes that too hard at my income level, but my property taxes are more than my mortgage (this is NJ after all), and have decent equity there. Without kids heading to college we'd pay things off over the next few years. That is fine tradeoff - they have been the best part of my life. Plus, assuming I last in the state, less than 4 1/2 years left here no matter what. If I don't last here due to likely loss of employment, less than a year left.

Sheesh.

If anything, the covidiots are making it easier for me to break the family ties and bonds in order to leave the area. The main remaining tie to the area is my youngest's situation in school (a positive one). I'm visiting my mom this weekend, she is the other tie but we both know that my family's future is more important and I wonder if it is the last time I'll see her in person. I accept the fact that she is cautious and vaxxed, she should be at her age. My sisters are filled with the brainwashed fear. Given they are both smart, I'm suprised, but they've been in the belly of the progressive beast for too long to be truly free thinkers, and they have NEVER been contrarians.

Dumbass Murphy probably has the Jones' to edict a vax mandate for schools in NJ, maybe he is scared to act on his impulses after seeing Cuomo's downfall, and knowing Murphy's ego, he probably thinks he is a possible presidential candidate. For the last 6 months he has been laying really low and mostly keeping his trap shut and the governor pen less activist. He may be foul to look at, a progressive and a liar, but he is still shrewd and has an ego to feed.

We're seeing the bad data for the shots but I think that the ~0.3% population dying off isn't going to help make enough noise to lead to a connection for these dolts edicting their way over us, it is going to take a bigger number of vaxxed death to do that.

Plenty of those vaxxed morons have it coming, they aren't americans if they don't understand or respect the Constitution or freedom of choice, but for all of those who are fearful or carelessly ignorant, I'm not hoping for their demise. They are part of the buffer between me and all that is bad in this world.

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The Lockdowns Will Continue Until the Morale Improves!

I keep thinking, "it can't get any worse" and then it does!
Aztrader
Posts: 8687
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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I know a commercial roofer that is going through hell right now due to the shortages. He is bidding jobs without knowing the final cost of the materials. He got nailed last month when he did a job for $40k and just got the material invoice for $64K. His suppliers are 6 to 9 months out and are raising prices 15% a quarter. He found out the hard way that he can't be guaranteed the price and they can do whatever they want to these guys because of the supply chain issues. He told his customers that the bid is good for one day only. These people run schools or government buildings and don't understand the situation.
How can you plan anything not knowing what it will cost and how long it will take to get to you?
The Chinese are having major power issues and have cut back on producing everything. This will only get worse as time goes on. I see a major depression coming for anyone that is leveraged and don't have the capital to make fast decisions on purchasing goods or anything else. Try buying a commercial van today with about a 6 month wait. If you don't have an existing one that will last that long, then you are in trouble.
I don't understand why Walmart and all these retailers stocks aren't diving right now. Those ships on both the Gulf and West coast won't be unloaded and delivered by Christmas. We are going to see a lot of empty shelves in the near future.
Npgh
Posts: 52
Incept: 2013-04-16

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@Tickerguy...off topic but I just went over to canon212.com and Frank has your ticker at the top. I don't know how to screen shot but it's the ticker on "I Can't Hire Employees"
Word is getting around.
Aquapura
Posts: 2285
Incept: 2012-04-19

45th parallel
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Quote:
These people run schools or government buildings and don't understand the situation.

The company I work for has whole studios doing work for public entities, e.g. school districts, universities, city/county, etc. They all have ridiculously long and complex approval processes for any type of capital expense of size. No way they can make a same day decision on a re-roof job or anything similar. For larger projects Design-Bid-Build doesn't work because quite frankly no Owner seems to believe the Architect when they say what construction costs are. I don't blame them either. It's insane. Hearing about a lot more CMAR instead which is great but the construction managers are covering the volatility with MASSIVE contingencies. Heard about 25% on one job. Damn!

We are hyper busy right now but it makes zero sense. Nobody can tell a client with a fixed budget what that'll buy with any sense of certainty and any contractor giving a GMP is very likely going to get screwed, especially for larger projects that take years, not months. Still a lot of speculation happening but that's cheap money. Heard of one project just covering up the inflation with more low interest loans. Hoooray!
Tritumi
Posts: 414
Incept: 2008-11-29

tokyo
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Brother and I contracting to renovate old homestead's foundation. After agreeing to contractor's terms (with discount for cash), he has gone to ground. I'm encouraging brother long distance to get the contract signed before his corporation stinges up. We shall see...
Flappingeagle
Posts: 4281
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Quote:
Have you given five seconds of thought to what happens if they were to attempt something like that?[\q]

My first thought is that it would appear as if we were having a eclipse. However, instead of the moon blocking out the sun, it would be the lead in the air.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Laurentz
Posts: 16
Incept: 2019-01-10

Birmingham, Alabama
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I'm kind of surprised that no one has linked the song Currency by The Black Angels. The first time I heard it a couple years ago I immediately thought of it as the Ticker Forum National Anthem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U9B244Z....

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I'm not letting my ship get shot out from under my ass! Open fire! - Captain Lindemann
Greenacr
Posts: 317
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
Online
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Look for a run on Christmas Toys for Children. Fox News is talking up shortages for Christmas this morning. Stores should be stripped by the end of next week.
Rufust445
Posts: 901
Incept: 2007-08-11

Emerald City
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Aztrader wrote..
Try buying a commercial van today with about a 6 month wait. If you don't have an existing one that will last that long, then you are in trouble.
Online shopping spurred by the lockdown lunacy has nearly exploded. Demand for such delivery vans has put a squeeze on supply. I've seen rental vans around here with Spamazon and/or FedEx stickers on them.

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"The stock market isn't bullish, it's bull$hit." -- Alan King
Bakerv
Posts: 96
Incept: 2021-04-21

Florida
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Want to thank you, El Jefe, once again, for your passion and your commitment to truth.

As I've said before your covid truth going back to the beginning was instrumental in my family's covid experience last July and having the information, being pointed in the right directions, helped to get us through it.

This interview strikes at the heart of my family's soon to be had, tonight, discussion about our way forward.

We survived hurricane Michael three years ago and we have rebuilt, much of it by my own hands, and are now trying to decide whether to deleverage completely by maximizing the equity that we have realized as a result of building a new home out of the debris and mayhem of Michael. To sell or not to sell.

We now own a brand new home on a beautiful bayou that lets out to the Gulf and we love our home but we have some debt, a small amount relative to the current value.

To sell now and it will sell quick would allow us to have zero debt and a substantial amount of money in the bank to take advantage of potential opportunities if this whole debacle works out like you've outlined and how I feel it's going.

Hard to uproot small humans and the wife from the comforts of home. But how comfortable will that be if things are nip-and-tuck and maybe worse.

The wife is ready and wants an adventure. So we could sell and go somewhere, rent, be mobile, nimble and quick.

We shall see. I suspect this will be the most intense family meeting we have ever had. Good to have options.

p.s. D-dimer came back under .19 so post covid recovery there seems little risk of blood clotting issues.
Jesjohn94
Posts: 400
Incept: 2019-05-07

Atlanta
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Nice to see supply problems are resolved now. This guy is a genius.


Joe Biden has warned companies that he will call them out if they fail to step up to ease supply chain bottlenecks ahead of the holiday season.
Tickerguy
Posts: 177794
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Whah whah whah whah.

5,000 containers/week is nothing. Half a ship?

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Chescocatholic
Posts: 9
Incept: 2021-10-13

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Great discussion. I'm not a terribly educated guy and I was able to follow you with ease. Keep up the good work!

I believe we're already witnessing the beginning of what is going to rapidly become a full-scale economic collapse. Between people quitting/being fired for refusing to vaccinate, labor strikes over vaccines and regulations gumming up supply chains and vaccinated people already getting injured/disabled and unable to work or outright dying, things are going to get very interesting, very quickly. Even the Amish out my way who are normally pretty insulated from the disruption of the world are cutting hours, putting up "help wanted" signs on their businesses and have jacked up the price of their goods. Seems next to nobody is going to come out unscathed.
Toddmeister
Posts: 137
Incept: 2009-08-10

Bay City, MI
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Quote:
5,000 containers/week is nothing. Half a ship?


I heard about 500,000 containers sitting out on ships waiting to dock.

Yep, so about 10,000 containers average per ship, give or take.

Tickerguy
Posts: 177794
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Depends on the size of the ship, but yes, 5k/week is a literal smiley

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Pete_brewster
Posts: 122
Incept: 2015-12-10

Canada
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This is what happens when you run out of cheap foreign labour.

If our betters hadn't considered it morally wrong to pay a Christian what his time was worth, none of this would be happening.
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