Hiring Manager: 'I Can't Find Employees!'
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2021-10-09 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 4420 references Ignore this thread
Hiring Manager: 'I Can't Find Employees!'
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Likely explanation, beyond them being sick of your bull**** with mandates: They're DEAD.

But first, our usual report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.

This was a wild miss after ADP reported in on Wednesday.  I predicted that and it doesn't surprise me one bit.

Remember that this report captures during the survey week, which was in the middle of September, not "Friday."

And a quick reminder: I always work off the unadjusted household numbers.  Always have, always will.  You're free to use whatever you want but since Christmas comes every at the same time this tends to make intentional ****ery much harder, and the government is known for it.

The decline in the unemployment rate was not due to people "finding jobs."  It was due to over half a million of them deciding to walk off and not care.  That's a lot of people, and it's the second consecutive month after a strong of mostly-good news in that regard since January.  Last month also say a large (1.1 million) "walk off" rate.

What has changed?  Mandates came in this spring and now its jab mandates, not just masks although the last couple of months might well have been both -- specifically, many businesses going back to "Employees must wear one -- ha-ha we told you things would be normal if you just took the shot.  We lied."

The only people who gained ground this month were those with 4-year degrees or better.  Everyone else was stagnant.  Work from home, anyone?  No masks in your house, right?  That doesn't apply to people stocking shelves and moving material around though does it?

But that's not the real trouble sign here.  No, that's the annual run rate of non-institutional population over the last 12 months.  That is the total number of not-institutionalized people in the United States over the age of 16.  The only ways to leave that count once you join it on your 16th birthday are to:

  • Expatriate yourself and leave the US permanently.
  • Go to prison (you come back on it when you get out.)
  • Go to a nursing home (Reminder: The median life expectancy on admission to one is six months, after which you do the next.)
  • DIE.

The last two are basically the same thing since most people, once they go to a nursing home and come off the rolls for that reason never go back onto them, although you certainly could.

Deciding to hide in Mom's basement, going on disability or otherwise choosing never to work again whether by circumstance or personal decision does not remove you from this group.  It does take you out of the "workforce" number (and adds you to the "not in labor force" number) but not from this figure.

Here it is going back to the middle of 2020:

 

This number has run around 2 million on an annualized run-rate for a very long time.  It is somewhat responsive to economic booms and busts with a 16-17 year lag; more people make children, but when they do it takes 16-17 years for them to show up in this figure.  16-17 years ago was literally the best of times; birth rates were rising as we came out of the Tech Wreck.  Indeed in 2018 in December the annualized run rate was about 2.5 million.  It was in December of 2019 too -- right in front of Covid.  And in December of 2020 it was back to more-or-less baseline at 2.1 million.

So where did the 1.2 million people that should have been added to the workforce over the last year go?

They didn't go anywhere.  They were added.

This means the real question is who got subtracted?

The power of uncorrelated data sets is that the people who would **** with you through large-scale, institutional lying always forget about the uncorrelated data sets they do not control and thus are "out of their sphere of consciousness."

January of next year will be the adjustment month, as it always is.  But these estimates are what they are and if they're anywhere near accurate starting in February lots of people started dying who should not have died because the usual rate of death doesn't move these figures.

Something did -- and still is.

PS: Good luck trying to hire replacements if you fire those who refuse jabs in this sort of labor market.  If you're a corporation thinking it will all be good if you play "WokeToBiden" and will simply replace those you fire for their refusal to go along I'll be looking forward to your bankruptcy filing.

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User Info Hiring Manager: 'I Can't Find Employees!' in forum [Market-Ticker]
Boredfree
Posts: 27
Incept: 2021-09-15

western slope colorado
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Ticker Guys ability to look at numbers and relate what those numbers mean is a blessing to me.

I appreciate Karl's hard work and his unrelenting passion for truth. Lesser humans would have quit in disgust years ago.

Thankfully I found this place soon after Karl started, and by reading not just Karl's post, but the collective thoughts of all the posters, I've been able to keep my head above the herd and see all the bull**** spraying from the Propaganda sphincter.

Having a community of people who are facing reality, and trying to find a sane path thru these times is not just helpful, but also hopeful.

Thank you!

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The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Samiam
Posts: 21
Incept: 2021-05-11

Sweden
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It is this data, more than any other that you have posted, that has made me believe all of the other data. For exactly the reason you say, this data is outside the sphere of what the govt is looking at so they think it is still hidden and no one knows. It is also this data that is scaring the bejeezus out of me for what will happen this winter both in the States and here in Sweden. Yes, Sweden has stopped with the Moderna vaccine for kids but they still have the Pfizer one and it is still being used. There is no talk here about therapeutics and you cant buy vitamin I here either...need a prescription from your vet for that as well. I can get Claritin though so I will be using that as well as the vitamin I I was able to find when I was in the States a few weeks ago...

Thank you, Karl, for doing the work that the journalists refuse to do...
Twainfan2
Posts: 336
Incept: 2018-12-04

MN
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Going to be tough to hide that number for long. Things aren't getting any better either. Many, if not most, local businesses have drastically cut back their hours. The only fast food joint with in house eating now is Subway. The rest can't field enough employees to do anything but drive thru. Was at a small used bookstore last week, well tried to anyway but their hours are now down to 11-3. How does any business survive on just 4 hours of business a day?
Tickerguy
Posts: 177794
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A True American Patriot!
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Note that the negative delta the last seven months has been about 50,000/mo.

That's quite a long time and rather consistent...

What are the odds that "run rate" gets your attention? Annualized it's roughly the rate of heart attacks (heart disease) but not concentrated in the 65+ group. Do you find the rate of people falling over from heart attacks in any ordinary year to be particularly alarming? Probably not.

That's the scale we're talking about here.

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.

Cmoledor
Posts: 299
Incept: 2021-04-13

Akron Ohio FEMA region 5
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Well. Going on several weeks now and the funeral home down the street has been full. Every day. For whatever that means. I know what it suggests to me. Thanks Karl. And the posters. Always great to start my day here.

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The whole world is one big ****ing scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skull****ing and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
Statman6
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Illinois
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@Boredfree: Thank you for expressing my thoughts exactly. I too have been reading Karl for about a dozen years and finally signed on this year.
Jpg
Posts: 545
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MI
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Is it likely to be possible to winnow confirmation of the "They're dead" conjecture out of the Annual Shareholder Reports next year of funeral-home chains (assuming there are such things) and life-insurance companies?
Eaandkw
Posts: 76
Incept: 2014-11-22

Now in Texas
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Hey Karl, what report did you pull the numbers from again? I tried looking at some of the numbers on the BLS.gov website but the numbers don't match up. I just wanted to be able to see and pull the numbers for myself so I can show people and convince them that I am not making things up.

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Winding it down
Augeries
Posts: 253
Incept: 2019-09-26

North of Boston, but not North enough.
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Quick question: if the military requires a vaxx to serve, would being unvaxxed prevent one from being drafted? I think someone should ask Psaki about that.

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I'm Team Virus. It Deserves to Win.
Most Lives Matter. Timothy McVeigh Did Nothing Wrong.
I Hate The Antichrist. Death to the New World Order.
The World is Quiet Here.
Apotheoun
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MN
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Looks like we finally get our Darwin event.

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Waiting for the third box, I'm done.
Rickylc
Posts: 1928
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Is Everywhere
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This wouldn't at all be related to your "It's A MYSTERY! (The Hell It Is)" Ticker, would it?

smiley
Bluto
Posts: 418
Incept: 2021-07-10

Florida
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@Tickerguy

To clarify, that chart is the year-over-year change, right? What really stands out to me is 9 consecutive months of decline!

Anecdotally, I am hearing about more people dying this year than any other year. Early 60s guy dies of heart problem. 70s guy goes fishing and never comes back (stoke?). 40s guy died (don't know why yet). 20s guy dies from drug OD (related to lockdowns?)

I know these are statistically insignificant, and I don't know any of the families well enough to ask "were they jabbed", although I think I can get some more info on the guy in his 40s who recently died.

It would also be really interesting to see number of cases of cancers, strokes, shingles, etc... on a year-over-year basis, but I have no idea how to get those numbers. Prescription drugs by type or name (even better) would also give an indication of what is going on. Some doctors have claimed a big increase in certain type of cancers (likely related to the clot shots), but it is hard to "prove" that without the actual numbers.

This is one reason I usually don't invest in companies that don't pay dividends. Dividend means they have a cash flow, which can't be faked like the other BS numbers.

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'Whatever happened to charity toward one's neighbor?
Whatever happened to bowing to God, not men?
Whatever happened to faith in Jesus and His PROMISE of eternal life -- and His admonition to not fear the death of the body but rather, the death of YOUR SOUL?
-- Heartlander 10/10/2021
Tickerguy
Posts: 177794
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A True American Patriot!
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@Bluto - Correct.

I have an Excel spreadsheet that I add to every month with selected columns off the report. To those who ask "well how do I reproduce it?" the answer is you do the work for 20 or more years so you have the base data from the tables and thus can draw reasonable conclusions from the combined data set having paid attention to it -- otherwise, what you see on a monthly, unconsolidated, short-term basis likely looks to you like NOISE.

Yes, you can probably go to the BLS page and get some (perhaps all) of it if you're willing to do the work but I am not, after now close to THIRTY years of following this data (it was a PRIMARY planning input when I ran MCSNet!) and close to 15 reporting on it every ****ing month with this report -- my monthly jobs recap -- being one of the worst-circulated (second only to the series I used to do quarterly on GDP with, once again, data I took the time to keep locally), going to do that work for you and no, you cannot have my combined 20 years of effort following this report in the form of said spreadsheet either.

Those of you who have been here for a while know that this particular set of reporting is one that I do EVERY SINGLE MONTH and have since I started this blog. Those of you who listen to Stocks-n-Jocks on the first Friday when it comes out know that I'm on the show every single month going over it too, and have been for quite some time.

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Joancrawford
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TG,

Ever since you provided a link to Stocks & Jocks, I've followed you there every Friday...a clear case of stalking! "I'm your biggest fan!" -Kathy Bates, Misery :D
Cr8nmake
Posts: 11
Incept: 2016-02-13

Chicago
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Been here a long time. Your data and analysis have been ongoing and fantastic. Miss the GDPyour market analysis is/was just as good.

@twainfan - part of the reason fast service dine in remains closed is because they dont want to re-open. They are lovin it - the drive thru, take out, delivery model. Listen to the earnings calls, many dont want to reopen dining. Owners are pushing back on corporate not wanting to open dine in. More to it but just another piece.
Chiff
Posts: 58
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Timberlake Va
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Pull-forward effect will drown out effects of access/economic devastation/despair/famine/vaccines for ~ 18-24 months. Thereafter the effects of our bad decisions will last for decades.

This is why job creations came in far short, we don't think our actions carry consequences.

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/statu....
Sam6
Posts: 2
Incept: 2017-04-03

St. Matthews, SC
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Here are some historical averages I gleaned from BLS.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat01.pdf
HOUSEHOLD DATA
ANNUAL AVERAGES
1. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, 1950 to date Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Year Civilian noninstitutional
population Difference from previous year

2007...................231,867
2008...................233,788 1921
2009.................. 235,801 2013
2010...................237,830 2029
2011.................. 239,618 1788
2012.................. 243,284 3666
2013...................245,679 2395
2014.................. 247,947 2268
2015.................. 250,801 2854
2016..................253,538 2737
2017.................. 255,0791541
2018...................257,791 2712 2357 Average diff. for past 11 years
2019...................259,1751384
2020...................260,32911542189 Average diff. for past 13 years 1269 Avg. diff. for last 2 years
Bluto
Posts: 418
Incept: 2021-07-10

Florida
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@Eaandkw
Quote:
I just wanted to be able to see and pull the numbers for myself so I can show people and convince them that I am not making things up.


At this point, ain't no numbers not going to convince nobody of nothing if they ain't smart enough to have not taken the clot shot.

Because of their stubbornness, stupidity, and submissiveness, they are going to have to learn the hard way.

It is like the parable of the rich man in the Bible who dies and goes to hell, and then pleads to be let out so he can warn his five brothers about that horrific place.

The response to that request is found in Luke 16:31
"And he said unto him, If they hear not Moses and the prophets, neither will they be persuaded, though one rose from the dead."

----------
'Whatever happened to charity toward one's neighbor?
Whatever happened to bowing to God, not men?
Whatever happened to faith in Jesus and His PROMISE of eternal life -- and His admonition to not fear the death of the body but rather, the death of YOUR SOUL?
-- Heartlander 10/10/2021
Blanca
Posts: 216
Incept: 2020-07-25

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This is an interesting analysis of European death data.

"Too many people are dying and its starting to worry the demographers"

https://www.rintrah.nl/too-many-people-a....

Quote:
So what could be the cause? Well, the canary in the coalmine are unfortunately our own teenage boys. In the period when the COVID-19 vaccines began to be administered to teenage boys in England, deaths among teenage boys were up by 63%, compared to 16% in teenage girls.

So, the general pattern we see is as following: People are dying in excess. The trend is most clearly visible among younger age groups. The trend is also generally getting worse. Most of these people are dying at home, so the deaths are generally unexpected. The deaths are mainly from cardiovascular conditions.
Onelegged
Posts: 737
Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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1,200,000 missing /8 months (counting September) = 150,000 missing/month


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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train. It's gathering speed. It's also delivering your special box car. Showers are on the right...
Tickerguy
Posts: 177794
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Onelegged -- There was an initial surge; ignore it. That's all the old people in the nursing homes who were jabbed and kicked almost immediately. There were a LOT of those people, but it's a one-off since you can only die once.

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Onelegged
Posts: 737
Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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Gotcha. Thanks.


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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train. It's gathering speed. It's also delivering your special box car. Showers are on the right...
Bzelbob
Posts: 45
Incept: 2021-09-12

Jacksonville
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@tickerguy - Listened to Stocks & Jocks. Great Stuff! (They're still trying to wrap their heads around the 'where the hell did everybody go...' horror...)


@Cr8nmake
Quote:
part of the reason fast service dine in remains closed is because they dont want to re-open. They are lovin it - the drive thru, take out, delivery model.
Yep. Used to work for Pizza Hut back in high school days. My manager used to tell us all the time that the last days of the sit down pizza huts were coming.
Had a hard time believing him. But he was an accountant in his former life, so he knew a thing or two...
He explained that the Delcos (delivery companies) were *way* more profitable than the sit down places because they took 1/3 of the space, less employees, less to clean, etc...as long as you had decent delivery you were good.
Also if one delco got too swamped, another could fill the orders, which sit down places couldn't do.
He was right of course. You can still find sit down places, but the delcos are now *here to stay*.
Try running a modern food place w/o delivery. (Outside food trucks and such.)

FYI - local Zaxby's has had closed indoor dining since covid started and the line is around the building every freaking day.
People go up the entrance and pull the door handle only to realize it's locked. Only then they read the sign that says "Indoor dining closed."

Economics wins.


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"Threats are illogical. And payment is usually expensive." - Sarek of Vulcan
Ugrev
Posts: 592
Incept: 2010-03-08

Freer state of NC
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It's gonna be a **** show for the younger nerdy crowd.

20 somethings who play video games all night, write code all day, eat garbage. Hey, I'll be a dinosaur in the dev world but I won't have to compete with as many.

Terrible thoughts of people dying..but.. hell..it's me or them.
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