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2021-10-01 07:48 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 1304 references Ignore this thread
You CAN'T Use 'Cases'
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Back in October of 2020 I stopped using "cases" with respect to Covid-19 for anything.  It became apparent that an utterly-huge number of people were told they had Covid-19 when they did not; they either had an "asymptomatic" case or something else.

Not one lab has ever returned Ct numbers to the tested person.  Not even in Florida, where DeSantis issued an Executive Order requiring it.  Was there ever any enforcement of that?  No.

Why did we know this was entirely bogus?  Simple: On the CDC's own math the fall surge -- which turned into the Winter Disaster -- was epidemiologically impossible.  Specifically, look at their mean ratio of infections to case counts and you see the problem; at 6x enough people had the virus for there be no surge.  But there was.

By the summer this was even more beclowned as on that same data everyone had been infected.  But.... there was a surge.

Do remember the admitted truth on PCR: A Ct test of 35 or more almost never results in culturable virus.

It breaks down something like this:

Ct<20 = Nearly always you can culture virus.
Ct25 = 50 - 70% of the time you can culture virus.
Ct30 = ~25-30% of the time you can culture virus.
Ct35 = ~4-8% of the time you can culture virus.
Ct40 = Statistically never can you culture virus.

Why is this important?  Many people have claimed that viral debris from your infection still means you had it, thus, positive is positive.  Nope.  This is the worst sort of fraud.

At very high Ct numbers the debris could be from contamination at the lab, or between samples.  But it could also be from your prior, non-Covid-19 immunity and anyone who is even slightly competent in understanding the immune system knows it.

The virus enters through the nose and mouth.  The upper respiratory tract is where it first gets into cells -- if it gets into cells.  Your body has a bevvy of  defensive mechanisms to prevent that from happening.  Remember that unlike bacteria a virus cannot replicate outside of a living cell.  The mucosa in your mouth and nose is not alive.  The cells under it are, but it is not.

So if a virus lands in your nose but never gets through the mucosa it will register positive on a PCR test -- because it is positive -- if the Ct is cranked up high enough.  Technically you "got" the virus (you "caught" it) but you were never infected. 

It is certainly true that some of the people who are "positive" with high Ct numbers are infected and you got them "early"; they will go on to have clinical disease and, if you test them again you will get another positive in a day or two with a much lower Ct.  But nobody does that.  In addition exactly zero health departments have validated their claimed "infected" counts by coming back to those people with a $5 antibody test two weeks later and looking for IgA, IgM and/or IgG antibodies.  IgA may be present and both IgM and likely a weak read of IgG will be present if the person was actually infected at that time.  If only IgG is present that infection was not Covid-19; they previously were infected and you lied; their body beat off the incipient infection without impact.

Now contemplate the problems this causes:

  • You think you have protection against reinfection via natural immunity.  But you don't.  You had some other virus or a claimed "asymptomatic" infection and never seroconverted.  There are plenty of people claiming that "one third or more of people who get Covid-19 never seroconvert."  In a word: Bull****.  The truth is that is 1/3rd or more of those claimed to have Covid-19 never had it at all.  They either had some other virus (e.g. RSV, OC43, influenza, etc.) or, in the case of no apparent illness they had nothing.  This is extremely dangerous to the people misled as they will believe they had the virus when they did not.  They know this and it is why the so-called "doctors", who are engaged in organized fraud, encourage people who "had" Covid-19 to get the jabs!  They know damn well that likely somewhere around half and perhaps as much as 75% or more of those who allegedly "had" Covid-19 never had the disease and are thus not protected.  A $5 test will prove this but they do not run them before jabbing you.  This is why they don't run said tests; it will blow up their "case" claims and they know it.

  • The person claimed to have been "positive" and their entire family gets hit with a quarantine ordertypically for 10 days.  The economic damage to them is immense.  They were never replication competent and could not have spread the virus to others as they were never infected in the first place.  These people were financially raped without cause and are entitled to recover every penny they were screwed out of by so-called "public health" officials and effectively placed under false arrest.  That's a criminal offense folks.

  • The number of cases are thus wildly inflated and make for insanely good "fear porn" all over the media but they're flat-out bull****.  This is active fraud, not a mistake; they could prove the "cases" are real for $5 and do not, on purpose.

  • This fraud then is used to fuel claims of re-infection when some of these people do later get Covid-19 and, in some cases, that "antibody titers disappear from actual infection within a couple of months."  Since nobody followed up on the original  infection this is not speculation -- it too is fraud because if someone never had Covid in the first place obviously they will have no antibody titer!

I had something very early in 2020 -- the first week of January.  I suspected it was Covid-19; it was nastyfar worse than my eventual actual Covid infection in August of this year.  For this reason I got very, very interested in sourcing antibody tests and eventually did.  Unfortunately they were IgG only; no IgA or IgM, but better than nothing.  I ran one on myself -- negative.

For the rest of the year I continually ran them every three months or so.  All were negative.  Whatever that was in January of 2020 it was not Covid-19, assuming the tests were valid.

Then in early August I got Covid, presumably Delta.  That was not fun.  I had one test remaining.  It was expired, but still in the sealed bag.  I ran it and got a weak positive for IgG.  I also ordered a few more tests.  They showed up a few days ago and I ran one of those.  It showed very weak IgM (some would say "inconclusive") and a definite positive for IgG.

I conclusively had Covid-19; I seroconverted where I was known negative prior to that illness.

Until and unless we prove claimed "cases" either by Ct numbers under 25, which are likely valid and followed up with an antibody test at least for those with Ct >= 25 the claimed "cases" and all claims made on that basis, including alleged "reinfections" are flat-out bull****.

Those are the facts folks.

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Frat
Posts: 7421
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NKY
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But...how would they convince people to get the boosters if they realized they've been lied to this whole time? That won't help the bottom line at all!

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We're ****ed. There will be no happy ending here; there is no going back to 'normal.'. There are only bad outcomes and worse outcomes. And we don't get to choose those, either.
Imhotep
Posts: 127
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United States
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Karl, can you share where you sourced the tests recently?
Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
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https://www.genuineppe.co.uk/health-tech....

They will ship to the US in onesies/twosies.

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Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 3583
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I think that's the problem frat. A whole lot people are skeptical now and don't want the boosters. Hence the transition from string suggestions to coercion recently.
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 3583
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California Desert
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So a bit confused on what is positive results. Both igg and igm?
Tickerguy
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The expected sequence is IgA->IgM->IgG. You may have more than one at a time. IgM shows recent infection (usually the last month or two.) IgA usually shows active infection.

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Ajkalian
Posts: 67
Incept: 2015-09-16

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Merck came out with this news this morning, and it's ironic that this could be the first "official" oral medicine for Covid-19.

More news at 11

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2....

.
Imhotep
Posts: 127
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Thank you, sir! I had tried looking around a week ago, but got tired of sifting through the garbage on the www.
Bzelbob
Posts: 49
Incept: 2021-09-12

Jacksonville
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Retweeted! Out of the park again!smiley

One of my lab instructors always said that *hiding data* at any point was a cardinal sin in science. How true that rings now! (*cough*Theranos*cough*)

Quote:
Not one lab has ever returned Ct numbers to the tested person. Not even in Florida, where DeSantis issued an Executive Order requiring it. Was there ever any enforcement of that? No.

Would have blown up the scam immediately and they ****ing knew it!

I started watching Florida numbers early on from FLDOH (before we had treatments available) and as time went on we still had wildly more cases than we had deaths.
This told me that:
a) either the rona wasn't as deadly as it appeared (especially to the younger folks)
b) many people had some sort of immunity which kept it from progressing towards death or
c) the case number were out and out LIES.

Now we know ALL of the above is True (and you have shown that with DATA!)

You have truly laid it all for folks Karl! Great work.smiley

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"Threats are illogical. And payment is usually expensive." - Sarek of Vulcan
Shadowmask
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Health on a subscription plan is the goal. "Reinfections" scare the sheep back for boosters.
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 3583
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Apparently yesterday on the Senate floor, Ron Johnson talked about the surge in cases despite vaccinated rate this summer. Including a graph. Haven't been able to find video yet.
Zappafan
Posts: 5415
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Atlanta
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Heres how I see this playing out. One fine day, the powers that be will say they have had enough of COVID, it has served their purposes and the fear porn campaign is no longer productive.

Mission accomplished!

They will quietly change all the tests to have a much higher threshold (lower Ct number) or better yet, they will simply make the tests unavailable. Or make them expensive and not covered by insurance.

I think someone posted here that the PCR test authorization expires on Jan 1.

Ta-da ! No more COVID. Boosters worked, please resume your regularly scheduled late stage capitalism collapse.

Even the death numbers have gotten a little squirrelly- naked capitalism whom I trust says 711k dead from da coof but useless google says 696k.

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The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it's profitable to continue .. @ the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they'll just take down the scenery, they'll pull back the curtains, they 'll move the tables & chairs out of the way & you'll see the brick wall at the back of the theater/FZ
Mtdm
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NH
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Where do the rapid antigen tests like binax fall on the scale of reliability?
Blanca
Posts: 217
Incept: 2020-07-25

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One of my office colleagues liked to get PCR tested. It annoyed me greatly because if he was found to be "positive" then I might be in his contact-trace and be required to quarantine.

The inability to buy inexpensive antibody test kits in the US is criminal and most certainly intentional. Of course you can buy the antigen test kits. Thanks for the link to the antibody test kits that can be sourced in the UK.

Reason: Clarification
Cmoledor
Posts: 307
Incept: 2021-04-13

Akron Ohio FEMA region 5
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And according to some Karl, youre just spreading disinformation. **** them with a rusty chainsaw. Sideways. My neighbor actually said that to me. That youre spreading disinformation. Havent spoke to him after that.

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The whole world is one big ****ing scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skull****ing and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
Maddmaxx
Posts: 354
Incept: 2021-05-31


Online
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BREAKING: from the court filings in the #NSW Supreme Court case on mandatory vaccination.

The lead vaccine researchers driving all government policy in Australia received $65,330,038 in government grants covering 2020-2021.

Grants of this size are unprecedented


https://mobile.twitter.com/arkmedic/stat....

Can we do a similar deep dive here in America and in Israel, the UK, etc?
Kennington
Posts: 180
Incept: 2013-09-12

Pittsburgh, Pa
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@ Tickerguy I also ordered a few more tests. They showed up a few days ago and I ran one of those

I also had a very nasty bug in early 2020 - last week of January through middle of February. While I suspected it was Covid 19 I never tested myself for antibodies. Since then, Ive been exposed to numerous people who had the Coof including in my office since yet I gotten sick.

I cant be the only person interested in checking for antibodies...Karl, where did you purchase your testing kits if you dont mind me asking?
Kennington
Posts: 180
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Pittsburgh, Pa
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Saw the above reply....got it!
Jm914
Posts: 20
Incept: 2021-09-12

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This is why I would never consent to being tested. Its not like they will provide you any useful treatment if you are positive anyway, so what is the point?

I think the high Ct count is used on purpose so the hospitals can keep collecting their bounty with every positive case. My understanding is that they still demand a test if you go to the hospital for any reason. What happens if you just say no? They will never stop on their own unless we demand it. It is too lucrative for them to give up.
Cheetah9
Posts: 338
Incept: 2021-02-15

Northern Alabama
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I often wonder what an alien civilization would think of this little blue marble should they ever wander into our solar system. What would they see???

Inline
Bzelbob
Posts: 49
Incept: 2021-09-12

Jacksonville
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And just to remind everyone, KD dropped using case counts BEFORE the first shot went into the first arm (outside trials) on 12/14/2020...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/20....

So there was no confusion with pre/post vaccination case numbers. (Which just added more obfuscation into the mix.)

So they were lying before the vaxxes came, and they're still lying now. And we can take a good guess about the future...

Again, Bravo!smiley

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"Threats are illogical. And payment is usually expensive." - Sarek of Vulcan
Exppi
Posts: 97
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Les Bois
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The travesty is many folks wont care about facts. They are permanently stuck in their lizard brain from the fear porn. I saw a twitter comment this morning about someone having a breakthrough case and her biggest symptom is rage.

The other deliberate fraud that drives me nuts is the death statistics. Using back to January or a February to mask the vaccinated who have died more recently.

From perusing social media, a few folks are picking up on the case increases in the Northeast. I have contended, as many here have, it was seasonal and states above 40* N will see another winter surge as people move back indoors due to the winter weather.
Bluto
Posts: 434
Incept: 2021-07-10

Florida
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Weren't they also playing the game last year, where they would "group" PCR tests from individuals and report positives for ALL if ONE in the batch tested "positive" since their testing was setup to run batches? "Out of an abundance of caution", you know!

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"I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man." -- Thomas Jefferson
Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
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In THEORY if they got a positive on a batch they then re-ran the individual samples to identify which one(s).

In theory.

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