You have to chuckle at this.
Evergrande, an alleged "investment vehicle" in China, appears to be detonating.
A primer: If it's financial and in China, it's a scam. If you don't understand how it's a scam and who's going to get scammed, guess who is wearing the hat marked "Sucker"? Uh huh.
The only difference? This is a big-un.
The natto was especially bad overseas and it translated right over here, good for a nice big fat vomit on US markets.
Or was it?
Well, in point terms it was. But in terms of real violence? Not really. Not yet anyway.
I do remind it's September. Which has a history of being, well, sort of nasty when it comes to markets. And October too. In fact those are the two most-notorious months for market crashes -- but hardly the only ones.
This is rather.... orderly. Where's the monster volume, for one? Uh, nope. Not yet.
I'd be careful here. Washouts usually come on major volume. Which means this may be a ripple or...... a warning. Exactly none of the "aw crap!" indicators I have on my screen here are flashing "wash-out" or "panic." Not yet.
Here's the challenge when it comes to China. Yes, their economy is unstable. Yes, they'd like to own the world. Yes, they're Communists -- real ones, not the fake stuff some people talk about over here. Yes, the CCP (or PLA) will make you "disappear" if they don't like you. Yes, they have a whole crap-ton of political prisoners and more than a few religious ones too. We'd never do anything like that, right?
But this also means that the CCP has a habit of "back door" protecting everyone they like and screwing everyone else. Oh, nobody thought of that, did they? How much leverage was on with these positions? You expect honest answers out of the Chinese? Certainly they'll be as "honest" as those out of Fauci, right?
What's interesting when I look at the board is who is getting hit on a differential basis. Some names I'd expect, but others I would not. Is it entirely the speculative cohort? No. Those linked to Chinese supply? No. Hmmm.....
I'm watching this carefully, but I'm sure not buying here.
There's the smell of smoke in the air, and I just saw a cockroach.
Bet that it isn't the only one.