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2021-09-19 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1521 references Ignore this thread
A Plausible Hypothesis, Based On Fact
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We knew, very early on with Diamond Princess that a very material portion of the population had pre-existing immunity to Covid-19.  There were multiple instances in which a couple occupying a cabin had one person get very seriously ill and the other not only didn't so much as sneeze they never tested positive either.  They were clearly immune; these were people cooped up in a 10x10 cabin unable to leave the room for weeks while sharing the same bed.

Also very early on someone very close to me had his grandfather killed by Covid-19; he went from first symptom to dead in about five days.  He was old and had several existing health problems, so that a nasty virus got him is not exactly a surprise.  What was a surprise is that his wife, who lived with him and still slept in the same room, never even sneezed.  Again, this is wildly implausible unless an enormous percentage of people had serious resistance and perhaps even complete immunity to Covid-19 before it began.

There was some work done on this, and indeed there was evidence that 8 out of 10 people, in general, had at least some immune recognition to the virus.  Sufficient to protect?  Not proved.  Never was, and is very hard to prove.  How heterogenous that resistance is also is difficult to determine.  Is some (or even most) of it genetic?  Or is it from previous coronavirus viral exposure say, to OC43?

We don't have answers to those questions.  But that this resistance existed in early 2020 is fact.  There is no other explanation for what was seen not only on Diamond Princess but in myriad other places including nursing homes where there was no PPE and no means to provide any sort of airspace separation between people.

Yet the data, all the way to May of 2021, held.

How do we know this?  Because the virus followed the exact expected pattern; in point of fact the peak for infections occurred this winter before the first needle went in the first arm from a statistical point of view.  Vaccination did not, in fact, terminate the winter surge; it was already over.

So what happened this summer?

If immunity was pre-existing in March of 2020 it certainly didn't all become acquired in the previous 12 months.  It likely had been acquired over years or decades, and bleeds off slowly if at all.  Likewise, for Covid-19 recovered people Cleveland Clinic has documented that of those who actually had the virus, not just those claimed "positive" by PCR test, zero of their employees were re-infected.

That shouldn't surprise either.  A study was done early on with Covid-19 with people who had SARS and survived; the intent was to find if they were already protected, since the two viruses are related.  SARS protection post-infection was found to be durable seventeen years later, which should have been the end of the discussion until and unless proof showed up that it didn't apply here.  In addition a large percentage, in fact, the majority of the population who never had SARS had at least partial immune recognition to Covid-19 -- likely sufficient to prevent a severe or fatal outcome.

The recent JAMA article makes clear several things.  First, likely as many as half of those who got a positive PCR test never had Covid-19 at all.  The antibody counts they documented in that study do not square with the claimed infection rate nor the low-symptom prevalence where the person in question never sees a doctor and is never tested.  Back in the fall of 2020 the folly of the so-called "tests" was laid bare on the table when Elon Musk took four in sequence on the same day and got two positive and two negative results -- nothing better than a coin-toss.  How many more people were labeled as "diseased" when they either had the flu, some other virus, or nothing?  The data from JAMA strongly suggests the answer is "a huge percentage, likely roughly half of so-called positive tests, were in fact not from actual positive Covid-19 individuals."

The danger of telling someone they had something when they didn't is they have every reason to think they're safe when they're not and thus they are likely to put themselves at severe risk of getting hammered.  That's stupid and contrary to every principle of medicine, say much less ethical behavior.

But antibody presence is dispositive.  Pre-existing immunity is very, very hard to determine the presence of, since cross-reaction requires you know what you're looking for -- and we don't.  We didn't do the work, beyond SARS.  We didn't want to do the work because discovering what it was (1) made possible a potential easy infection that would confer actual immunity (e.g. if it's OC48 which usually causes colds, well, go get inoculated with it on purpose!) and (2) instantly deflates the fear porn, drive for vaccines and every single screaming idiot in the government, social media and on TV.

But then this summer something odd happened.  Despite the presence of antibodies sufficient to suppress a virus with an R0 of nearly 6, twice that of the original strain and equal to that claimed for Delta, which I remind you is unsubstantiated and the data from the UK in fact suggests Delta is not materially more-infective than the original wild strain (it only has to be a bit more-so to out-compete, of course), we had a wild outbreak of disease anyway.

Much worse is that in Britain it is impossible for there to be widespread communicable disease even for a a virus with an R0 worse than measles:

Based on antibody testing of blood donors, 97.7% of the adult population now have antibodies to COVID-19 from either infection or vaccination compared to 18.1% that have antibodies from infection alone.

It is impossible for Britain to have any material Covid-19 infectious activity among adults given this level of prevalence unless the jabs are largely or entirely worthless, or much worse, enhance infection.

That which is impossible is, well, impossible.  Like it or not since we know prior infection confers resistance on a sterilizing basis you're left with only one possibility.

It's a hypothesis that fits the facts and you can bet not one single penny of government money will go toward proving or disproving it as if it was to be proved then what do you do with all the vaccine companies and every involved government at all levels, local, state and federal, who literally slaughtered their populations with their advocacy and even in some cases attempted mandates for these jabs.

Do we have any independent medical science folks remaining, anywhere in the world, who will take this challenge on and prove it up?

We'll see.

But whether they do or not you can't change facts and the facts are that either the jabs destroyed existing immunity, creating susceptible people out of resistant ones, or the virus has evolved to largely-evade the protection the jabs provided.  Which it is doesn't matter to the person who believed they were safe, and now learns -- especially the hard way -- that they are not.

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User Info A Plausible Hypothesis, Based On Fact in forum [Market-Ticker-Nad]
Posts: 21
Incept: 2012-12-24

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@TG So what is the status of the PCR tests currently in use?

I know there were serious accuracy problems with the ones being used last year. Is that still the case? I remember reading here somewhere that the CDC or WHO recommended they no longer be used.

If so, which tests should be used now?

I ask bc our pediatrician was totally unaware of this. I asked bc my 7 y/o had just gotten a positive PCR test.
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Incept: 2020-03-26

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I'm a medical doctor under pressure to take the jab, and I won't under any circumstances.

I ask a simple question of anyone who tells me that the "vaccine" drugs are effective: explain Israel.

I also ask a simple question about the claim of vaccine safety: show the data on safety long-term.

That pretty much shuts them up.

Doctors are "in a trance" according to Peter McCullough, MD https://www.bitchute.com/video/4iiXukBuz....

I actually think that this pandemic hysteria has laid bare the actual anti-science orientation of the medical profession, which has essentially been functioning as an arm of big pharma for decades, rather than as an instrument to actually improve human health. The advocacy for all the psych drugs, the statins, the mismanagement of diabetes, etc. have been proof of that for anyone with an open mind who was willing to look.
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East Tennessee
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It's so hard to talk to anybody about this because the whole bull**** of bad pcr tests have convinced people that immunity gained from having covid is worthless.

Battling the dual medias (msm and social) is sisyphean, even among reasonably intelligent people. They are so invested in the narrative it's ridiculous. I know I've been saying it's like religion for a long time but the difference between knowing it and experiencing it is wildly discouraging. Good thing I'm hard headed.

It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
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Incept: 2021-03-24

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In the UK data we looked at before, it showed a 10-20% increase in case rates for vexxed people over 40, but 50% lower for those under 40. The younger people were vexxed more recently.

My hypothesis is that prevention of infection is present initially but then wears off. But since those people who didn't get infected due to the vex are now at risk, but the unvexxed were getting infected at some rate all along, in effect they pushed infections into the future for vexxed people.

That is, it may not be because the vex damaged immunity.

The UK data has info on vex rates by age group but I have not tried to back out whether this is well correlated.
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A True American Patriot!
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@Fonzman357 - A PCR test with a Ct <30 AND symptoms is likely real. A Ct>30 is likely false; a Ct>35 is 97% likely to be false. The problem is that they don't give YOU the Ct at which YOUR sample turned positive.

The only way to KNOW you had it is to test yourself for antibodies 2+ weeks post-recovery. If you have them then you had the disease. If you do not then you did not; you had something else or, in the case of no symptoms, nothing at all.

I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
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Karen is in full blown panic mode or will be when both brain cells fire. Tard shot doesn't work and the FDA panel did NOT recommend boosters for those under 65.

Even worse is all the virtue signaling and shaming others to shoot up was for naught.

And she's still a high risk fat ass because she spent the last two years gaining weight.
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Out of the park again! Tweeted.

"First, likely as many as half of those who got a positive PCR test never had Covid-19 at all."

Holy Bleep!!!

So they falsely turned the PCRs up to 38/40 or whatever...
Then the PCRs gave false results.
Then the Doctors gave these false results to the patients who falsely believed they had the coof.
Then the media picked up on the false results and spread the false info.
Then the social media censored people for refusing to spread the false info.
Then they got people to wear masks providing false protection.
And then we had false vaccines to fix the false infections that they falsely diagnosed with their false tests.
Now they want to fire you for not getting the false clot shot!!!

What a cluster****! We've gone into a whole other dimension of bull****.

"Truth is False and logic lost, now the fourth dimension is crossed..." - The Twilight Zone

"Threats are illogical. And payment is usually expensive." - Sarek of Vulcan
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Excellent article. Thank you.

The unreliable PCR test is the mechanism for a "casedemic". A more reliable, rapid test is required. Trillions have been spent on COVID. Where are the accurate tests for a current infection?

I got tested for antibodies recently. Negative. Shucks.
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Incept: 2019-01-01

north of Montana
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The meta analysis (v121) of Ivermectin data shows 11 studies for case results. The control groups in these studies should provide a good measure of pre-existing immunity, because they got no treatment.

The totals show that 1799 of the 6522 people in the control groups got infected. So 73% didn't get infected, and may have had immunity.

The study by Alam was in a covid treatment facility in Bangladesh, and 44 of the 60 people in the control group got infected. So perhaps the immunity breaks down if you are getting hammered with the virus every day.



could be a lot of real estate for sale soon
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PA - Wolf's lair :-(
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@Bzelbob, yep! And the hospital & MIC made mega bucks on positive PCR tests, hence testing every body coming through the door whether cardiac, stroke, accident victims, allergies, or hang nails...
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American biochemist Kary Mullis invented the PCR technique. In this video (where he is discussing HIV NOT Covid) he states:
Kary Mullis wrote..
"with PCR if you do it well you can find almost anything in anybody"

He also was not a fan of Fauchi. Again in this video he is talking HIV NOT Covid.

Mullis died of pneumonia on August 7, 2019 at age 74.
Posts: 39
Incept: 2018-05-17

Central New York
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Where are the legal challenges to the Pcr tests? I recall early on a couple vacationing in Portugal won a case against the states use of the test.
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Incept: 2021-09-09

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That 97.7 percent number blew my mind TG...does anyone know what the hospitalizations are like in the UK? Is it 60/40 vax vs unvaxxed? 70/30?

I have often said even if the vaccination rate was 100 percent we'd still have covid, and here we are.
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TG, Will antibodies show up 8 months later?

The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D.
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Incept: 2021-08-15

Marion, VA
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This is interesting in German but subtitles..

Sounds like 1300 of the richest intend to change the world..virus just a ploy

Posts: 307
Incept: 2021-04-13

Akron Ohio FEMA region 5
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@Bzelbop. Nice Rush nod . Im sensing many in here dig Rush. Not that it means a whole lot in the big picture, but it shows the intelligence in here. Ive always said Rush is an intelligence test. Off topic for sure. But its Rush!

The whole world is one big ****ing scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skull****ing and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
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@Ktrosper - They should IF the test is sensitive enough.

Infection produces B cell reactivity. B cells are responsible for rapid response on re-challenge and can very rapidly replenish the antibody titer you had shortly after infection. Typically they continue to produce at a low level on a durable (often permanent) basis.

Linear flow tests (the cheap antibody screens, and the only ones anyone is going to use on a mass-basis for reasons of cost) may or may not be sensitive enough. This, however, is why its important to check after suspected infection (by a month or so) and IF you have reactivity then and were NOT vaccinated (which will also produce a positive unless the test is "N" protein specific, and nearly all are not) you can reasonably presume you have at least severe outcome protection on a durable basis and likely full immunity. If you have full immunity you actually want re-challenge to occur because you will not get sick, you're sterile and thus can't give it to anyone else but the re-challenge will broaden and deepen the immunity you have.

The problem is that MANY people who were told they had it by PCR test, symptomatic or not, really didn't. Without the Ct which is never reported back to the patient you cannot assign an uncertainty to the test, and with a Ct of 35 the probability is only 3% that the positive read is true. There are other viruses that can produce moderate similar symptoms including two beta coronaviruses that commonly circulate in humans. Infection with one of those MAY provide some (or even complete) cross-immune protection but we do not know how good (or even if) that's the source of non-infective resistance -- it's a hypothesis, but not proved.

I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
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Finally managed to get logged in after all this time! Thank you Karl for your unceasing work.

I suspect there is a treasure trove of information in this video, but it is long.

Join us for a Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meeting to discuss Pfizer-BioNTechs supplemental Biologics License Application for administration of a third dose, or booster dose, of the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, in individuals 16 years of age and older.


h/t: https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/
Posts: 76
Incept: 2014-11-22

Now in Texas
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My daughter just got back from the ER for an unrelated issue and tested positive for Covid with a NAA test. The doctor said she was positive and the test results say "Detected * A". Not sure what that means. She is asymptomatic and doesn't feel bad at all. The doctor also said that she could go back to work in three days which was weird. Does anyone know what the "Detected * A" means?

Winding it down
Posts: 20
Incept: 2021-09-12

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Karl, thanks again for your analysis. Great article!

I suspect my husband had the virus in late February/early March 2020. At the time we were living in a deep blue city (we have since moved out) and he worked in a building where many Chinese also worked who would frequently travel between the two countries. We always laugh when people say the only thing that happened was that they lost their sense of taste and smell because that was so far from our experience. He was extremely sick. Looking back, I am so glad we kept him out of the hospital. We lived in a tiny apartment and it was impossible for me to stay away from him since we only shared one room. I never so much as sneezed either despite being in a similar situation as the Diamond Princess.

Of course this is just my personal experience but I have yet to be sick going on 2 years into this thing. Both of us refuse to take the death stab. I recall the study concluding around 80% of people had some level of pre-existing immunity and it did seem like the infection data was supporting this until the jabs started to roll out. If there is some level of pre-existing immunity and the jabs are just worthless and not enhancing, would we still be seeing this spike in infections? Although viruses mutate over time, I would think that pre-existing immunity would still be somewhat protective in the population as a whole. Also if the jabs do destroy pre-existing immunity is there any way to know if they will also destroy pre-existing immunity to other similar viruses? I doubt the medical establishment would ever study any of this. I think we will be in for a very dark winter if the hypothesis here proves to be the case.
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Central New York
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Dr. Bridles letter to the President of the University of Guelph.
Posts: 177822
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A True American Patriot!
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@Jm914 -
. If there is some level of pre-existing immunity and the jabs are just worthless and not enhancing, would we still be seeing this spike in infections?

The only plausible mechanism for the spike in severe infections (sufficient to wind up in the hospital and worse) is that the jabs either destroy pre-existing resistance (multiple mechanisms can be in play here; OAS being the most-likely and that is a known risk with vaccines generally) or worse, as antibody titers wane you get a binding effect (enhancement) rather than a protective one.

I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
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there could be another problem. If general life exposure to Corona viruses confers a degree of immunity from the mundane to the SARS/MERS level and we know that the vexxine damages this immunity, we now have a population of vexxinated individuals who are not simply at renewed and heightened risk for COVID-19 but ...

lots of other things, all at once, concurrently and one right after another.

Many people were exposed to SARS/MERS, me personally, some might not have even noticed it or it was like a mild cold. They actually then had immunity perhaps to the level of perfect to COVID-19.

These same people if vexxed, have lost all of this and might even have greater susceptibility.

I have said it here for a while. In about five years due to how these things cycle we could have a SARS outbreak right here. Especially if the booster **** keeps screwing up previous immunity. We are now in the situation of the Asians who seem to have a genetic predisposition to flu and SARS like stuff that we never had before.

Perhaps their wish was that we would be just as bad off as them. The Chinese do think this way.


"Better to reign in Hell, than serve in Heaven," Satan's monologue in the first book of John Milton's Paradise Lost
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Thank you for posting Dr. Bridle's letter. I may choose to crib from some of his sources as it looks increasingly likely that my employer will force me to get vaxxed or get put on a leave without pay. Just another day in happy Canuckistan.
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