It Is STILL Accelerating (Jobs Report)
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2021-09-03 09:20 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 1898 references Ignore this thread
It Is STILL Accelerating (Jobs Report)
[Comments enabled]

Someone's got some 'splaining to do.

Yes, the jobs report was "good" -- or was it?  Not really; the gross number was wildly below expectations.  Then again August is usually a firing month -- specifically, all the summer help from teens still in school typically are let go because they have to go back to High School.  That's normal.  In addition the "decline" in unemployment was from over a million people exiting the labor force, which mathematically makes the jobless rate fall -- it was not from net job additions, because in fact, on a non-adjusted basis over 300,000 jobs were lost.

What's not normal is what's showing up here.

 

This has never happened before across more than 20 years.  I have this data table going back to 1999.

What you're looking at is the rolling 12-month non-institutionalized population 16 years of age and older.  It has fluctuated from time to time as little baby "booms" and "busts" occur, and aligned very closely in that regard with good and bad economic conditions generally (no surprise) with a 16-17 year lag.  Why?  Because it takes 9 months to make a child and then 16 before they show up in this number.

16-17 years ago we were exiting the nasty tech wreck.  It was "the best of times", to put it mildly.  Jobs were plentiful, the economy was roaring back post 9/11 stimulus, and life was good.  Very good, in fact; we were just entering the housing bubble boom with stocks and all other manner of economic "progress", as perceived by people, in a never been better state of mind.

So no, people didn't decide not to have sex for the benefit of children during that period.  To the contrary; they screwed like rabbits, as has repeatedly been demonstrated in this table.

Once you reach 16 years of age there are only three ways you get out of this count:

1. You become institutionalized; that means prison or a nursing home.

2. You leave the United States entirely.  That's not happening, net-net, is it?  Southern border anyone?

3. You DIE.

Those are the only three ways.

What did we start doing in January of 2021 that might have impacted one of those three?

Again -- good economy, bad economy, look back 16-17 years and the correlation is clear -- but at no time back to 1999 can you find a time when that 12-month rolling figure has gone under 1 million.  It has never happened before in the modern era.

Oh, there's another problem: Employment in health care was flat.  So much for being "prepared" or "hiring" into a surge of demand for said services!  Uh, what seems to be the problem there and is policy and forced terminations for refusal to comply playing into that, net-net?  It sure looks like it to me when for the last several years the average monthly add in health care has been about 30,000 jobs per month.

Between these two you have a BIG red flashing light folks, any time you get something that has never occurred before it automatically goes into the "heh, that's not cool" bucket and, if we had honest people in the media there would be a lot of folks trying to get the "why" question answered in a defensible and documented fashion.

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Johlie
Posts: 7
Incept: 2020-06-27

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what are the quarterly all-cause mortality numbers for the first 2 quarters this year?
Aztrader
Posts: 8678
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Are people simply dying or are they gaslighting the numbers?
Jjn
Posts: 10
Incept: 2020-11-12

Washington State
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Karl, can you share your dataset? Or post a screenshot with headers so we know what we're looking at?
Tickerguy
Posts: 176905
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Aztrader - This is an uncorrelated data set....

You think they're not dying eh? Well, look here.

Oh yes they are; the expansion in CMS is all in Medicaid and Drugs (and it's WILDLY in drugs, by the way.)

In hospital and doctor spend, last FY to this FY (current FY, I remind you, includes the period of last winter when a ****-ton of people went to the hospital and died.)

It's DOWN for both hospitals and clinics for those >65.
Inline

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Tickerguy
Posts: 176905
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@Jjn - I've kept that data set for a long time; it's an Excel spreadsheet and no, I'm not publishing it. What, my explanation of what you're looking at is insufficient?

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Olddad
Posts: 105
Incept: 2019-08-22

Inman
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@KD: Link is broken (or BLS removed it).
Rickylc
Posts: 1847
Incept: 2009-02-09

Is Everywhere
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Is the "never before under 1 million" number the add for the month?
Tickerguy
Posts: 176905
Incept: 2007-06-26
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@Olddad - Link fixed.

@Rockylc - No, that's the 12-month rolling figure. In other words, the add to the non-institutional >16 population over the previous 12 months. It is the only way to be reasonably accurate when using non-adjusted figures since Christmas falls on the same day every year and, important to THAT series, the BLS makes an adjustment every January to "fix" any accumulated error. If you don't account for that you'll come up with some wild ideas that are, in fact, bull****.

I only use the non-adjusted household survey numbers for my tracking, and always have back to when I used this report as a primary data source to inform me of trends when I was running a business -- the so-called "adjustments" may be well-intentioned or not, but they're not trustworthy where raw counts are a hell of a lot harder to **** with.

In other words I have what is now approaching 30 years of experience following this data and when something isn't in-line with the patterns over that length of time it jumps off the page at me.

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Engineertype
Posts: 33
Incept: 2020-03-20

Granville NY
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So, it appears that the evil ones are succeeding in their grim task. The deaths are simply spread around enough so that the average Joe doesn't notice. He might know of a couple of people that died, but doesn't have any true sense of how widespread it is. Average Joe certainly doesn't realize that the cause of the deaths isn't the Covid but the preventive. Wow. The Germans in WWII would have loved this medical development!
Zappafan
Posts: 5255
Incept: 2007-11-30

Atlanta
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Something wicked this way comes. Hot vax summer became the summer of stiffs.

They've jacked with the Medicare spending by covering COVID treatment with direct on budget spending authorized by the CARES act, I suspect. So if Gramma goes into the hospital for kidney problems, tests +-ive for the coof, the bill gets paid directly from the US treasury vs. Medicare. Even better if she croaks, the hospitals get 30k and that doesn't come out of Medicare.


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The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it's profitable to continue ... At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they'll just take down the scenery, they'll pull back the curtains, they 'll move the tables & chairs out of the way & you'll see the brick wall at the back of the theater
Strangely
Posts: 11
Incept: 2018-03-22

Tucson, AZ
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I've just been informed by my employer that I have until Oct 18th to get double jabbed or I lose my job.

I work for the University of Washington but I live in Tucson, AZ and telecommute, so I've no idea how enforceable their edict is.

There's no way I'm going to be experimented upon as a condition of employment.
Abelardlindsey
Posts: 484
Incept: 2021-03-26

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Shouldn't it be noticeable on a casual basis if abnormally large numbers of people are dying? You would think people would be talking about it in casual conversations. For example, you go to the hair dresser and she mentions that someone in her family or maybe someone in the family of a friend died unexpectedly.

As I mentioned previously, my wife and I live largely in splendid isolation (a happy couple self-sufficient unto ourselves) and I and the people around me at work are of professional demeanor. So, I do not have my ear to the ground that much. Nevertheless, I would think that I would pick up on it if people were dying in abnormally large numbers.

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Playdough2
Posts: 19
Incept: 2010-06-10

USA
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Would it be possible for you to add in the 9 or 10 rows immediately preceding rows 266-274? Clearly the rolling figure IS declining, but how much of an aberration is this for 2021 versus 2020? In other words, is this a sudden precipitous decline, or reflective of a more gradual population reduction?

Either is significant -- but if the causation is the one you are suggesting -- just as with the hospital/doctor spend -- a longer run of data would better help to make the point to those who don't follow the numbers as closely as you do.
Edwardteach
Posts: 179
Incept: 2021-05-01

Here be dragons
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You've pointed this out before. So we're looking at people dying? How many in the last 8 months? Is there a ballpark number? ((expected number based on birth rate minus normal attrition) - (the posted numbers))?

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615obo
Posts: 48
Incept: 2020-08-10

Nashvegas
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Am I reading this right, since the end of 2020, 1.143 M people have "vanished" from the working population of this country?
Hyalite
Posts: 8
Incept: 2021-03-26

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RE: Employment in health care was flat

My wife just left primary care. Worked in the field for many many years and did a damn good job at it too. Had enough of petty tyrants in middle management.

Health care is a horrendous field to work in today. Burnout is rampant.

Whossane
Posts: 167
Incept: 2018-01-25

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Karl,

Do illegal aliens show up in the BLS reports?
Patentleathershoes
Posts: 10664
Incept: 2007-09-13
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I have chemo brain. I can usually follow your charts in a basic sense. I don't get the Medicare one though.

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Mekantor
Posts: 165
Incept: 2009-01-12

Houston, TX
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I looked up who the big funeral home companies were, came across Hillenbrand.

In their 10Q, definitely a big YoY uptick in revenue.

https://ir.hillenbrand.com/sec-filings/a....
Invisiblesun
Posts: 282
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
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The problem with large numbers is they are hard to count. This is why macro-econ is so much more of a dogma then a science - counting the economic inputs and outputs is intractable, which is why so much of macro is model-based.

I know of a few deaths in the past year. Old age, a heart attack, traffic accidents. Maybe one was Covid but the person was also already in managed care and constantly sick in mind & body.

Thing is I am not aware of any elevated mortality. My parents and in-laws are still alive but many of their peers have deceased due to age.

The CDC claims a 15% excess mortality due to Covid. I believe there was excess mortality but to what extent it was Covid disease, or Covid malpractice or self-injury due to Covid despair will be debated for years.

What is true is our government is destroying civil society and the harm is incalculable. That doesn't explain the missing persons. It does allow for there to be missing persons and suggest we may never know why.
Nadavegan
Posts: 402
Incept: 2017-05-03

The South
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A combination of Baby Boomers kicking off (or getting Pfizerized) along with Millennials waiting longer to have children and then generally having fewer children when they do?
Billhrny
Posts: 90
Incept: 2019-06-19

Northern Virginia
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So this, along with everything else we are going through begs me to ask the question "has the world as we knew it effectively ended?" - either through an impending economic collapse that has already happened, or through the coof, and the "powers that be" are just trying to deflate it in a whimper vs a bang?

There is some strange **** going on that just doesn't make any sense if everything was "right" with the world. It's felt that way for me since about 2017/2018. I feel like I'm Captain Kirk in that episode of Star Trek where he goes to that alternate "evil" universe...you know where Spock has a goatee and Chekov keep trying to kill him? Everything seems upside down.
Kickthecan
Posts: 1487
Incept: 2008-11-06

Seattle
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The biggest drops after the months where the least healthy cohorts were getting jabbed. Wondering what the boosters for those same groups will bring.

The brother of my best friend from high school passed away last weekend. Happened at home and was unexpected per the obituary. He was 56. The time doesn't seem right yet to ask what is known. Certainly could be from other causes but I'm having to wonder if something vascular related.

Jrich
Posts: 2
Incept: 2018-02-28

Franklin, Tennessee
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@kd, not sure if you have seen this, but the CDC has birth datasets at the individual birth grain at..

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vit....

For the 2005 dataset, YYYYMM is at position 15.
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