Statistical Abuse And Flat-out Lying
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2021-09-02 08:17 by Karl Denninger
in Corruption , 1507 references Ignore this thread
Statistical Abuse And Flat-out Lying
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This is the sort of statistical abuse that ought to get any entity that pulls it burnt to the ground, especially during a pandemic when it is used as an advocacy tool for a dangerous intervention that produces little better than "flip-a-coin" outcomes.

The dramatic change in vaccine effectiveness from June to July is likely to be due to both the emergence of the delta variant and waning immunity over time, compounded by the end of masking requirements in California and the resulting greater risk of exposure in the community. 

The second part of that sentence is absolute BS.

You either ARE or you ARE NOT immune to a given virus.  There is no middle ground; the question is binary.

If you are immune then no amount of PPE is required.  I will, right now, sporting natural immunity, walk into a Covid-19 ICU without any PPE on and sit there and observe for 30 minutes.  I will do without fear because I am presumptively immune from the virus as a result of previous exposure, infection and recovery.

Anyone who believes the vaccines work is welcome to come with me on the same terms: 30 minutes in the ICU, no PPE.

If you believe you are immune due to vaccination then you should be perfectly willing to do this without a shred of fear that you will, in fact, get Covid-19.  You're immune, or so you were told.  That's the point of vaccination; you make you impervious to a given disease.  Yes, in some very tiny percentage of persons, nearly every time as a result of being immune-compromised, the vaccination fails to elicit an immune response.  But -- assuming you are not immune compromised then there is absolutely no reason on God's Green Earth for you to fear the virus if you have taken the jabs and the appropriate 2 weeks has passed since the second one.

If you do not believe this to be true then you wasted your time and worse, took the risk of severe adverse effects from the jab for no purpose.  You gained nothing either physically or mentally from said jabs.  You have no faith in your course of action.

As it turns out there's damn good reason to not have faith since the table in that article discloses that in July 75.2% of cases, all symptomatic, were in fully-vaccinated workers.  The workforce was 83.1% fully-vaccinated at that time.  There was only one death and thus statistically the power to prevent death was undetermined.

It is reasonable to believe that zero of said workers are in fact seriously immune-compromised since being so would make working in a health-care setting, with sick people all around you on a daily basis, a literal suicidal act.

Now if the vaccine was completely worthless then 83.1% of cases would be in vaccinated persons and 16.9% in unvaccinated personssince that would be the ratable portion.  If the vaccine was 100% effective then 100% of the cases would be in unvaccinated persons and, of course, zero in vaccinated individuals.

Would I, given this data, go into a Covid-19 ICU while vaccinated?  Absolutely not; statistically speaking there is utterly no reason to believe I am protected.  I expect to see 16.9% of cases in the unvaccinated but in fact see 24.8%; while that does indeed imply some protection it's not much better than flipping a coin.

Is that what you signed up for when you took the jabs America?  Will you abide a mandate when it is now proved you don't actually get the protection you were promised?

I would hope not.

These results are definitely not what you were sold by the CDC, Fauci, Trump, Biden, your State Health Department and all the advertising on the TeeVee and social media.  You were sold nearly 100% effectiveness sufficient to remove your fear of getting Covid-19.  What you actually got is more akin to what you get out of the flu shot if you take it each year: Some attenuation of risk but, in many cases, absolutely nothing of value.

The difference is that unlike the flu shot that rarely harms anyone beyond a sore arm for a day or two (last year's flu shot campaign, which delivered about 170 million doses, recorded 26 associated deaths) VAERS says that 13,627 deaths and nearly 56,000 hospitalizations have been associated with these jabs -- thus far.

In other words on a reasonable "back of the envelope" analysis the Covid-19 jabs are close to 500 times more-likely to kill you than the flu shot is and have no better record in preventing you from getting Covid-19 than the flu shot does in preventing you from getting the flu.

My personal decision, seeing the adverse event risk, was to rely on natural immunity and risk infection.  I got infected.  I hit said infection immediately with meds despite the "official position" that there are no meds that work, my approach was successful and I now believe, with no evidence to the contrary in the data we have developed over the last 18 months, have durable, stable and sterile immunity and thus am willing to enter, without fear, into a Covid-19 ICU without any PPE whatsoever.

My approach, for myself, turned out to be right and since I have acquired said immunity ("the hard way") I will not permit coercion to receive that which, on the scientific data, cannot materially improve said immunity (it's binary, as I pointed out originally) and will consider any attempt to coerce or mandate same as a felony assault with intent to commit great bodily harm and will respond as is appropriate to any *******, no matter their affiliation, who tries it.

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Ndp
Posts: 18
Incept: 2021-04-21

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"The dramatic change in vaccine effectiveness from June to July is... compounded by the end of masking requirements in California"

The dramatic change in birth control pills' effectiveness is compounded by lots of people ****ing without a condom. The pill would be as effective as advertised if everyone just stayed home and whacked off. But at least wear a Condom if you want the pill to protect you from getting pregnant.

Would anyone buy that excuse?
Nadavegan
Posts: 402
Incept: 2017-05-03

The South
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"I will not permit coercion to receive that which, on the scientific data, cannot materially improve said immunity (it's binary, as I pointed out originally) and will consider any attempt to coerce or mandate same as a felony assault with intent to commit great bodily harm and will respond as is appropriate to any *******, no matter their affiliation, who tries it."

You mean you won't be taking the twice-daily covid pills that Pfizer is now rushing through approval?

/sarc
Tickerguy
Posts: 177012
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Uh, No.

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Magearcanus
Posts: 6
Incept: 2021-07-27

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Pfizer's new little blue pill which will make you stiff and not in a good way.
Aztrader
Posts: 8678
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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The reported deaths and injuries seems like it is extremely light. The lies continue in order to keep pumping the poison.
Fredx
Posts: 18
Incept: 2019-01-01

north of Montana
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I see another problem - they have 19,000 employees!!!

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Deal with reality or reality will deal with you - Whitehat

The protected need to be protected from the unprotected by forcing the unprotected to use the protection that didn't protect the protected. - Donkey
Augeries
Posts: 226
Incept: 2019-09-26

North of Boston, but not North enough.
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Stand your ground and laugh at the vaxxshills. The goal is to demoralize them via a refusal to play their game.

So the thing is, I'm not gonna get it.
The shot, I mean.
Yeah, I know, I know.
I'm just...not gonna get it, is all.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Thats the proper answer to these Covid Nazis. Make them seethe and cry.

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I'm Team Virus. It Deserves to Win.

The World is Quiet Here
Learnordie
Posts: 138
Incept: 2009-03-05

Northeast Washington
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Some of the Vaxxed my have had Covid prior and gained some protection from the normal antibody response. That may explain the statistical difference even if the tax is 100% useless.

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Anyone who cannot cope with mathematics is not fully human. At best he is a tolerable sub-human who has learned to wear shoes, bathe, and not make messes in the house. RAH
Whossane
Posts: 168
Incept: 2018-01-25

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" Vaccination with mRNA vaccines began in mid-December 2020; by March, 76% of the workforce had been fully vaccinated, and by July, the percentage had risen to 83%"

I'll bet that the vast majority of cases were in those who were vaccinated prior to the end of March. So 76% vaccinated by March and 75% of cases in July were in fully vaccinated workers. Seems like this vaccine might be worthless after four or five months.
Gonavybeatarmy
Posts: 30
Incept: 2021-05-21

Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
So the thing is, I'm not gonna get it.
The shot, I mean.
Yeah, I know, I know.
I'm just...not gonna get it, is all.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA


I love 4chan quotes. Awesome.

The question is now, if it's homelessness or the jab, which is it because I'm pretty close to the first one now.
Technica
Posts: 35
Incept: 2020-04-10

Oklahoma
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One of the guys I subscribe to on YouSlob has 2 separate totally unrelated women he knows that have come down with uterine cancer after getting the vaxx....Just putting this here if anyone is interested...

A PSA for women.

Sonoran_monk
Posts: 71
Incept: 2021-08-16

Between a saguaro and an arroyo.
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@Aztrader - the missing million maybe? Were any definitive conclusions made about that bit of data?
Ronin75252
Posts: 1
Incept: 2021-05-19

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So after looking at the numbers fall off the cliff here 5 -> 94 symptomatic cases a more apt comparison for the Attack Rate is to link this 94 cases back to January / February vaccination numbers.

With that being said, let's make some numbers up:

Linear (Cuz it is easy and starts ya thinking) - Jan - Feb - Mar 5k /month. What we know about decreased effectiveness is we would expect Jan Vaxxers will be hitting in June / July (yep, there it is). As this is the case, the possible low side for Attack Rate / 1000 is 94/5000 - 18.8 cases/1000. Or basically where an unvax person is now.

I say this is low side as I believe the actual vaccinated growth curve is going to be some sort of exponential which means the Jan number is going to be lower which means that 18.8 is a sort of low set point.

What is being shown on this table with a vaccine effective rate of 65.5 in July is the composite of ALL the vaccinated with all the various level of effectiveness. Which makes the effectiveness a complete sham if we are at 65% and are not counting the Feb and Mar cohorts which are expiring in the next few weeks.

But don't worry, the slave shots and twice daily pills will keep y'all safe and secure.
Mannfm11
Posts: 7343
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Is this really nothing more than another bureaucratic nightmare imposed on the people, where they take a problem and make it bigger, then permanent? I would say that the statistics prove nothing, as far as protection. The numbers are close enough, between jabbed and not jabbed to say there is basically no difference in protection.

Remember, we are talking about a supposed gas chamber disease. We had 9 months of CV19 and anyone who had been working, in a CV19 area, likely already had exposure and immunity. Taking the jabs is like going to a brand new fully inflated tire and taking it off and putting a flat on the car.

Look at the bull**** they have planned? Passports? For what? To enter into an extortion racket, designed to benefit no one, but the criminals running the program? Take a jab, get a card, gets you in until you need another jab, then you find out your card expired, not on any actual date, but one they make up. Remember, anything tying your freedom to a jab card, means you are at the mercy of the card and those running the scam.

Would there be a Delta variant, if there weren't jabs? I don't think anyone can give you a real answer for that question. Remember, this is a gas chamber disease, not one you have to seek out and get. I think it is one you either get or don't get, depending on your immunity, prior to exposure. If it was as serious as they pushed, everyone would have already had it. Especially those working in the areas of hospitals, where there was constant exposure.

What we have here is Medicare all over again. Remember, Medicare was going to be a inexpensive means of protecting the over 65 people from Medical costs. It turned into a means of looting the under 65 crowd and now the biggest program in the US government, including national defense.

We are either going to accept the potential of death, which really never goes away, because it gets more probable with age, or permanent slavery and abuse by the medical bureaucrats. No system of mandatory jabs should be put into place, because they make the temporary permanent.

My question is, has the CV19 virus really been that much more deadly than the Hong Kong flu? I think, if they had counted the deaths, in the 1960's outbreak, as they have with this one, the HK flu would have been much more deadly. I remember it and there was no hiding from it and it was over pretty damn quickly.

This one has been managed according to hospital capacity. Hospital policy has been run to inflate, not limit the deaths. Out of hospital treatment has been blocked, thus the acquisition of natural immunity and the capacity to remain out of the hospital has been blocked.

How much of the government is run in this fashion? To make the burden on the people and the size of the program they are managing as bad on the population and as good for the bureaucrats as possible seems to always be the outcome. We just exited the Afghan war. Was there any way to **** up the end of a 20 year fiasco better than the exit. What do you think the toll is going to be to find an exit for CV19?

If there is one group of people who know not to get put into the hospital, it is the people that work there. If you go to the hospital, how many 70 year old people do you see working there, besides doctors? How many 60 year old people? How many people over 50? Under 50, CV19 is largely the flu, or less.

The better question is, who is dying in the general population? I bet it is largely the same people, who were dying before, the over 65 sector. Who got the jabs? The over 65 population. It would be the best way to study this, how well it works for people who are actually at risk.

Don't forget, there is a bounty for CV19 deaths, which means they have an incentive to get a positive test for anyone dying, in a hospital. I heard they were giving the jabs to hospice patients. Under those terms, when the hospice patient dies, should it be classified as the same as if they got a positive CV19 test?

There are only 2 questions to be answered now. One, why has known treatment been denied and why are the jabs being pushed for a disease that will likely moderate itself to being a minor health problem over a not too long period of time? The answer to the second, answers the first. As usual, the bureaucracy has made a problem 1000 times bigger than it is. In the meantime, one place is having no deaths from Cv19, Sweden. It is either take your medicine or give up your freedom, for a future lifetime of jabs, which are likely to kill you as the virus.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Dingleberry
Posts: 76
Incept: 2011-11-06

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@ Technica

Tons of women on the web asking for months about their weird periods after the jabs....either heavy, absent, delayed, returned after menopause, and so on.

We know that the spike can go all over, certainly in reproductive areas.

The pathologist out of Idaho (can't remember his name) said he has noticed an explosion in cancer reads, on top of spontaneous abortions.

Maybe this will wake up the karens?

I know that's a long shot....but we can hope.

Mannfm11
Posts: 7343
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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The Pfizer pills? Another bend you over and **** you version of the NAZI program of economic management of the unwashed. Do you believe, for one minute a script for these is going to be under $100 a month and be more effective than IVM? It is amazing the extortion rackets they can devise for us. Now, what was likely a $5 to $10 script for IVM is very costly (I know you are now paying through the ass for IVM, but it is because competition is being denied, through corporate (NAZI) censorship).

I think we are going to see this entire scam collapse and I hope the hell the people of the USA wake up to what they have been doing in DC and around much of the world, extorting the public for the benefit of the NAZI class. It appears the Japanese have discovered IVM. Note the Japanese had no real CV19 problem, until they brought out the jabs. Unlike the rest of the world, the Japanese population is largely Japanese and they aren't apt to try to eliminate their own kind. Much of the rest of the world is largely vegetable soup, including China, which we view as a single race or sect.

Who becomes the new Doctor Death, since it is clear Joseph Mengele has plenty of new peers today? Is it Fauci, or the NAZI head of the WHO? Or Wolensky, of the CDC, whose sister, I think, runs YouTube. And, for that matter, you might note that NAZI's are running Israel, as well, bringing out another round of jabs, for a weakened population.

Karl has been beating this subject for years and now it is apparent, what the problem is in health care. It always goes up exponentially, because what has been developed in the past is trashed and replaced by something more expensive. Imagine, if they tore down all the existing apartments every 15 or so years and replaced them, with new and improved? Can you imagine the closets people would live in to afford a roof over their heads? Isn't that what they do, with our health care? Instead of IVM or HCQ, we get a new drug out of PFE, which likely doesn't work any better than the former ones. The cost will be like a drink of water in the middle of the desert, because the sheep have been convinced they will die without it Just like the jabs. If it fails, they will blame the people who took IVM.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Riceday
Posts: 828
Incept: 2009-10-30

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I know it's zerohedge, but the table in the article has Israel confirmed cases in July at a rate for vaccinated individuals in excess of the percentage of the population vaccinated for all age groups up to 79 years old.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/whos-....
Prof_dilligaf
Posts: 6
Incept: 2021-09-02

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This is entire idiotic episode has been a moron test that a huge swath of the world's population has failed and continues to fail. Even the most insistent vaxholes has admitted from the start that the not-vax is non-sterilizing and therefore "herd immunity" (the one wizard word on the subject most people know so they bray it endlessly) is impossible and anyone with the virus can still spread it. They follow that **** sammich up with "yeah, you can still get sick, but maybe you won't die!", and the response? "Moo, moooo-re shots, mooooo!"

Now we have the new "treatment" in the form of a twice-a-day pill that the very press release announcing it says is only for people who are in no actual danger. If you could end up severely ill (do they have a horde of crystal balls on stand-by?), this pill is fruit you shall not taste.

The moral vacuums in charge are telling the bovine masses, to their faces, that it's utterly pointless to ingest or inject any of this garbage, yet these idiots aren't merely clamoring for more, they're upset, even murderously upset, that others refuse to be as dip-****ted as them! Modern life really is unlivable anymore.
Inline
Packetcap
Posts: 20
Incept: 2021-07-23

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I'm having quite a bit of trouble digesting the Pfizer twice a day pill. Assume you take it forever. That might possibly be the most audacious F U I've ever seen.

You know that with the current level of amped up fear millions will beg for it.
Frieza
Posts: 101
Incept: 2019-03-09

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Nadavegan wrote..
You mean you won't be taking the twice-daily covid pills that Pfizer is now rushing through approval?
I vote that we call this new drug SARS-CoV-2 Oral Multidose Antiviral. Or SOMA for short.

...actually, it looks like someone has already unironically named their painkiller Soma. God bless Clown World.
Quantum
Posts: 194
Incept: 2021-05-18

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@Dingleberry

Quote:
The pathologist out of Idaho (can't remember his name) said he has noticed an explosion in cancer reads, on top of spontaneous abortions.


You're thinking of Ryan Cole. He has indicated that uterine cancer reads have increased several hundred percent (but overall numbers are probably low given its rarity). I have seen some case reports of spontaneous abortions, but no data. The NEJM article from earlier in the year was very early in the process.

Cobra2411
Posts: 13637
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Philly P.a.
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Quote:
There is no middle ground; the question is binary.
There is a large part of this country and the world that believe biologic sex is not binary. You can choose as you wish and even change your mind mid sentence...

I think the only thing "binary" they understand is that you believe like them or you are a monster. To them the coof is the scariest, most dangerous thing in the world. It's full of magical destructive powers and only what their deities say matters.

To them a 100% jab rate would equal the death of the coof and everyone could live happily ever after. But... Because of the hesitant the virus had time to mutate and is not threatening them again and it's all the unjabbed who are to blame.

MSM continues to scare monger because that's what they do and people in a panic get into a tizzy about who to blame.

These people are low impulse emotional people who cannot use logic over their emotions. Whatever the way the emotional wind blows they follow screeching and ranting along the way.

Worse, those who had been infected likely destroyed their immunity and thus we possibly are farther from the exit than we were when we started.

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God grant me the serenity to accept that people are ignorant, the courage to uphold the law when I'm hostile, and the wisdom to realize that murder is illegal.
Cmoledor
Posts: 237
Incept: 2021-04-13

Akron Ohio
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If we ever meet Karl, Im buying you a ****ing beer my man. Respect good sir.

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The whole world is one big ****ing scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skull****ing and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
Drifter
Posts: 832
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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The people who brought us the food pyramid and cholesterol hypothesis are now demanding fealty to their Covid hypothesis.

So, vax efficacy is declining over time and because of delta, therefore "Our findings underline the importance of... continued efforts to increase vaccinations, as strategies to prevent avoidable illness and deaths."

Uh, the vax isn't working because delta, but we have to vax up to protect us against delta... their study shows vax protection is pretty iffy.

Insane.
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