Science: Masks and Aerosols
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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work because under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-07-04 14:10 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 2205 references Ignore this thread
Science: Masks and Aerosols*
[Comments enabled]

Let's look at physics and mathematics folks.

We'll start with a single cough or sneeze.

Everyone "knows" that if you cover a cough or sneeze, and you should do it into your sleeve instead of your hand, this will reduce the risk of someone else getting a virus you may have, right?

Wrong.

It doesn't.  So says the science!  This is a myth, just like it is a myth that you can wear a mask and reduce transmission.

Wait -- you say!  YUCK; that's obvious that it helps.

Well, no.

Here's why.

You sneeze and a huge loogie comes out your nose.  Yuck!  Nasty!  Mucus, full of germs.

It goes, if uncovered...... downward, on the floor.

And harms nobody.

It's disgusting, but that's it.  You should still do it anyway because it's disgusting not to, but you won't stop a virus by doing so.

What?  If I stop the loogie then how come that doesn't do anything?

Because in addition to the loogie out come a bunch of large drops, each also laden with virus.  Maybe a few hundred drops.  Yuck!  Thus covering or physically blocking those will reduce transmission to other people, right?

Wrong again, statistically speaking.

Why?

Because in that same forceful exhale are an enormous number of sub-micron water droplets that are formed as the saturated vapor in your lungs (100% RH in expired air) cools slightly as it travels up from the lungs to the trachea and out the mouth or nose and comes into contact with the ambient air (well, unless it's over 98.6F in the air where you are anyway!)

Remember your basic physics:  As any saturated vapor cools it condenses.  Any saturated vapor that cools by even a tiny amount will condense -- that is, coalesce the individual vapor molecules into larger aggregates.

Ordinary "tidal volume" (that is, the amount of air you move in a resting condition with each inhalation) is about 500ml.  For a cough or sneeze it is much larger; the maximum volume of air that can be inspired in adult human lungs typically is in the range of 4-6L, or eight to 12 times the "at rest" breathing amount.

When we breathe normally we produce very few or no large droplets.  When we sing, play a wind instrument, yell, scream, cough or sneeze we produce a fairly large number of them.

But none of this matters at all, statistically, because with each breath we produce millions of small condensate drops, and all of them which do not aggregate beyond the pore size of the medium in a mask will go right through said mask in either direction, most of those condensed molecules are produced between the lungs and either before or just after exit from the body due to condensation of the 100% RH water vapor and each of them individually, if you are infected with a virus, can carry enough virons to infect another person.

We've all "seen our breath" outside when it's cold.

That's aggregation and condensation to a great enough degree that the aggregates are visible; there are thousands to millions more said aggregates that are too small to see and when it's not cold outside none of them aggregate and condense sufficiently to be visible but they are all still there.

Note that during ordinary breathing the mean particle size is sub-micron.  Statistically none of these are filtered in either direction by anything less than an N95.

This is why physics says that masks don't work against viruses and exactly zero RCTs show that they do.

Never mind the repeated attempts to mandate masks in 1918 which did nothing to prevent the spread.  Of course the revisionism of today says "well it's because people didn't adhere to it."  Sure, there were people who put up the middle finger; after all, they threw people in jail for refusing -- but the facts are that nearly everyone complied.

Every single person that has ever "seen their breath" in the winter months knows, if they think about it for 30 seconds, why masks can't work and don't.

They can't work because blocking 1,000 pretty-large droplets sounds like it's great except hundreds of thousands or even millions of condensed water vapor molecule clusters were also expelled, they have enough virons on them to infect another person and very nearly zero of those are caught by the mask in either direction.  The ones you see when you breathe out in the winter are >50um in size (the limit of visibility to the unaided eye); more than 50 times the size of the mean particle you actually exhale.  Worse, every one of those tiny particles, unless condensed out or breathed in by someone else can remain in the air for hours since they are small enough to remain within the purview of brownian motion of air molecules; that is, they "float" so to speak because the energy of said molecular vibration and ordinary air currents, even indoors, is large compared to the pull of gravity toward the ground and thus they remain suspended in the air.

The reason we have a flu season, as I've noted, is that the higher the absolute humidity, which tracks with temperature, the greater the odds that further agglomeration of these clusters of molecules will occur and once they get large enough gravity takes over as they are too heavy and they fall to the ground harmlessly.

So your mask stopped the nasty-looking and smelling loogie which can infect exactly one person, unless you wipe it around on people, and 1,000 of the 5,000 modest-size droplets you expelled. This is why the mask gets nasty all over the inside (which, by the way, if left on for any length of time or reused will breed bacteria on the inside surface which you can inhale, and it will be very bad for you if you do so.)

But it's worthless in terms of protecting anyone else because at the same time you expelled the 5,001 droplets and stopped 1,001, which sounds like a decent hazard reduction, you also expelled anywhere from thousands to several million micrometer-size drops, an effective none of which were stopped, all of which are infectious, and thus you actually caught materially less than 1% of the potential infections that can screw someone else!

1% is not statistically significant.  Filtering out 0.1-1% of the infectious events out at the source DOES NOTHING.

The reason workers in a virus lab wear moon suits, go through multiple e sets of sealed doors with decontamination procedures before that suit is removed and breathe pressurized outside air while inside the lab is that these are facts and said virus -- any virus -- will go right through any "mask."

Then there is an often-cited NIH review that claims that masks "might" work.  Well, that depends on the mask.  If you read the actual study you'll find that there is a RCT (again, the gold standard for medical science) that found that cloth masks increased transmission -- in other words, they were worse than the control group that was wearing nothing!  That study found N95s to be effective (no surprise) and that surgical masks might be, but non-medical masks aren't part of the debate -- and yet that, and cloth, are what we're talking about here in the general public.  That same review also noted that coronaviruses appear to be preferentially emitted in aerosols as opposed to droplets, which instantly destroys the argument for source control since anything that does not have a high quality seal and fit will pass nearly all of your aerosol (as opposed to larger droplets) right out into the space around you.

Oh, and don't run any bull**** about "oh it's only so-called droplets" nonsense in terms of being specific to Covid19 either.  That's another common claim but there's zero scientific evidence for that.  I'm not the only one who's noticed this -- there's a group of 239 scientists who signed a letter to the WHO.  Not that they should have needed to; unless you're a mouth-breathing idiot the early outbreak in an apartment building at Wuhan and another in Hong Kong where there were no plumbing traps and thus gas (aerosol) from people's scat was getting into other people's apartments and the outbreak occurred across floors in units where the individuals had no reasonable possibility of personal or droplet contact along with the choir group that took all manner of reasonable precaution yet got infected anyway all make clear that in fact the so-called "large drop only" theory is nonsense.  It not only has no basis given the spread we have observed it has no basis in physics either.

Never mind what appears to be one very-well researched and run down super-spread event in Germany -- in a meat-packing plant after compulsory mask-wearing was put into place for employees.  The masks were worthless; a huge number of people were infected and they were able to trace the index case too because of a fortuitous mutation that allowed them to sequence the RNA and prove it.  That put the final nail in the coffin of those who claimed this is not an "aerosol" (whether originating from feces or out your respiratory tract) disease.

Further, as I've repeatedly noted, that Covid-19 isn't following the laws of physics on the agglomeration that occurs with absolute humidity is very strong evidence (but not proof), again on the science, that it is in large part not being transmitted through the air but rather by contact with contaminated surfaces and since we know intact virus is found in feces fecal contamination is very likely involved (exactly as it is with polio, which also didn't follow the laws of physics on aerosol or droplet transmission because it wasn't, in the main, transmitted that way.)  A mask does nothing to prevent "fomite" (item-based) transmission whatsoever nor does it work as source control for feces, obviously.  In fact wearing a mask may make transmission materially more-likely if the mask is not taken from a clean, sterile container only after you have washed your hands, is then put on, and once removed you immediately wash your hands and do not re-use the mask until and unless it has been sterilized.  This, of course, is impossible if you are out in the public and desire to eat or drink something.  As soon as you do contamination of yourself and others, if there is contamination on your mask, is assured.  In short a mask is a filter and thus concentrates whatever is in the environment on its two surfaces; on the interior from what you exhale and on the exterior from the environment around you.  Once a mask is worn, even for a few minutes, it is biologically dangerous both to you and others and becomes more dangerous the longer you have it on.  Without proper protocol you are more likely to infect yourself or others if pathogens are present than protect anyone at all and that protocol is utterly impossible to follow in general public life.

This has been noted in the literature; this article is often cited as "supporting" community mask mandates.  If you actually read it it does no such thing because of exactly what I've noted above:

Taking a mask off is a high-risk process (34) because pathogens may be present on the outer surface of the mask and may result in self-contamination during removal (31).

If your position on "masks" is really one that includes closing all places where food and/or beverages of any sort are consumed on-premise, along with the banning of consumption of food or beverages in public where by definition you will not be able to follow good protocol with a mask to limit cross-contamination of others and self-infection then just say so and be done with it.  Those arguing for mask orders in the public in fact are arguing for a complete and permanent lockdown except to go get groceries or take a trip to the hospital; they must be forced to come clean as to their actual intent.  So long as any firm can remain in operation that permits or serves food or beverages of any sort for on-premise consumption masks are likely to increase infection rates because from an epidemiological point of view once used they are exactly identical to used toilet paper in terms of infection risk and if you put a used one on a table or bar you just contaminated that surface.  Once you put a used one back on your face without first sterilizing it you have just contaminated yourself.

We have known all of this since February, as I have documented.

Physics is not a list of suggestions folks.

It is a list of natural laws that nobody can violate.

Masks are worthless when it comes to viral transmission by aerosol and in addition they are obviously also worthless against transmission that occurs due to contact with contaminated surfaces or objects.  That's the physics of it and nobody has ever demonstrated an ability to modify the laws of physics.  Only an N95 (or better) can attenuate to any meaningful degree viruses in exhaled or inhaled breath simply because virus particles and the water vapor particles that carry them are small enough to pass right through anything less.  It is like trying to stop mosquitoes with a chain-link fence.  I'm sure you get a few, but not enough to matter.

Grow up, deal with the fact that masks are worthless, learn to live with the fact that this virus will not be responsive to voodoo or magical incantations by governors, mayors or anyone else.  Manual removal of potential contamination from your hands by washing with soap and water will help, but there is no guarantee because as we know this virus can spread through multiple vectors.  The sooner those who are not significantly harmed by this virus get it and thus inhibit transmission the sooner it will be equivalent in its impact to seasonal flu or less.

There is no other reality folks, and for reasons I've explained before a vaccine is unlikely to work either.  Don't get your hopes up for that as you are very likely to be disappointed.

If this nation cannot face the realities of physics then we are back to the persecution of Galileo and the burning of "witches" at Salem.  There is utterly no point in my, or any other thinking person's continued engagement on any matter of economics, politics, public health or other policy if that is to be the regression of intelligence and logic among the people of this nation as what was America is doomed to collapse back into the Dark Ages.

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Invisiblesun
Posts: 82
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Maryland
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Thanks Karl!

Contrast this reality based explanation with this lala land article from NPR on masks. I apologize in advance if the following quotation makes your head hurt. But it should make your head hurt. Stupid kills. And we have a whole lot of stupid in America.

"When choosing a mask, experts say focus on the fabric, fit and breathability. How well a mask protects is a function of both what it's made of and how well it seals to your face. But if you can't breathe well through it, then you're less likely to keep it on."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsod....
Tickerguy
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NPR should be nuked to ash.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Frieza
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I ran across a study on Pubmed last year that I've been trying to find again since February but haven't succeeded. From memory, they attached some kind of collector to the face of flu patients for a day, some with coughing and sneezing symptoms and some without (or something to that effect - the details are fuzzy). The conclusion was that there was no appreciable difference. The vast majority of virus particles being shed were from ordinary breathing. Really wish I had saved the link. The closest I can find is this, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/article...., but that's not it.
Jackrussell
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Austin TX area
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Tickerguy,,,You can't fix stupid, so I just put up with their dumb Sh**, at least for now. Where I am required to wear mask....just wear a very loose-fit surgical or loose weave bandana, no trouble breathing, esp. if pulled down below nose.

Now, does anybody know any countries or Caribbean Islands with relaxed attitudes towards this virus stuff? That is open to travel this later summer or fall? I want to go back to living! Cheers, BOB

ps- Great POSITIVE news! Had a Texas-sized morale boost this morning, Ticker. I went to a TX youth livestock show this morning. So many great kids, the type that say "yes Sir" and "yes Ma'am", showing their steers, no masks, just fun. So GREAT to see people not cowering in fear!
Goforbroke
Posts: 8829
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The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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Science and logic don't matter.

The only thing I can see getting them to back down on the mask is if someone dies from it and the family sues whatever entity mandated it.

The family would have standing. The masks were carelessly prescribed with no scientific backing.

It's got to hit their pocketbooks.

I don't know, though, how you could die from a mask given that you have the ability to take it off. Maybe from bacterial infection? I don't know.

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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Tickerguy
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Bacterial infection from the mask. Slam dunk **** em up the ass with a lit M-80.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Elkad
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Someone have a walk-in deep freeze (at work maybe?) and want to do a little video proof?

Shut the fans off so the air is still and film breathing through a mask (or various masks). I figure the vapor of your breath will still be visible.
Pete_brewster
Posts: 78
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Canada
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Faster it spreads the better.

And it will kill mostly people with co-morbidities---Third Worlders who refuse to exercise or eat sensibly and had devoted a lot of work to ruining their health long before anybody heard of Wuhan flu.

If LaQuisha won't wash her hands, the only reason why I would give a damn if she drowns in her own mucus before popping out another thug by another baby-daddy is that she might have touched something an old or sick person might eat.
Whitehat
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Gone West
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Tickerguy wrote..
Bacterial infection from the mask.

it's called Legionnaires' disease, and it is nasty. It is also very difficult to remove from a contaminated area.

These ****ing masks are going to infect people with this and other things at the sub-clinical level if not clinical, and make them more susceptible to other serious infections.

Let's see, what do people tend to die from when they have a bad flu, oh yea, bacterial pneumonia, just like Legionnaires' disease.


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Keeping the underground economy keeps the peace and allows rebellious elements to protest their condition without actually protesting the government.

What were you doing over the years as your children's future was being destroyed? Do not expect them to fix your mistakes or tolerate you for them.
Jack_crabb
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Quote:
These ****ing masks are going to infect people with this and other things at the sub-clinical level if not clinical, and make them more susceptible to other serious infections.


At this point, my choices are 1) oh, well and 2) good.

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Molon Labe
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Kikknback
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Wearing a face mask for long duration without any type of "water treatment" on the moisture being entrapped in the mask, is like not providing "water treatment" to the pool water on an HVAC Cooling Tower on a commercial / industrial cooling system, which would allow scale to build up and provide the basis for bacterial growth, just like crud build up in the face mask will provide the basis for bacterial growth (LEGIONNAIRES' DISEASE).

There is a whole self-standing industry within the HVAC industry alone that does nothing but monitor and "chemically treat" the cooling tower water in large HVAC systems around the whole world, to keep Legionnaires' Disease from forming.

https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/legionnairesdi....

If OSHA (Federal Government) will fine businesses for non compliance of having a water treatment program in place for their cooling towers, why is the federal / state / county / local governments allowed to create the same life threatening scenario for Legionnaires' Disease to grow and KILL THE CITIZENS by forcing them to wear a "Cooling Tower / FACE MASK" on their face, where the moisture is not chemically treated to prevent Legionnaires' Disease.

This situation is setting up to be the same scenario of potentially murdering citizens is no different than murdering citizens by not providing low cost medications to keep them off the ventilators, that ultimately kills the majority who are forced onto one.

No low-cost medication murders citizens forced to use ventilators.

No chemical water/moisture treatment murders citizens forced to use face mask.

The ventilators have been replaced with face masks to murder the citizens.

Face masks are essentially NAZI GERMANY GAS CHAMBERS.

Covid-19, America's Holocaust / NAZI GERMANY 2.0.

Tickerguy
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It's about to blow. And no I won't spill.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
M1919a2
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Washington
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Masks are the NEW STAR OF DAVID!
Tickerguy
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smiley

You saw the Twatter war I got into.

No, this is 100 times worse than that ****. That's social media bull****.

This is not that sort of bull****. In fact, it's not bull**** at all.

It's deadly ****ing serious and it may be the biggest I TOLD YOU SO YOU MOTHER****ING PIECES OF **** that I've EVER been right on.

There are times I HATE being right.

******n a LOT of people straight to Hell.
This one is NOT funny.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Shannonlk1
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Raleigh
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I'm guess people have figured out the masks won't protect the wearer, because I noticed in the last week and half or so that the "narrative" has changed. They are now saying you should wear them to protect other people from yourself. The riots and protests pretty much threw water on the whole mask thing so now they are changing the narrative.

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Criminals thrive on the indulgence of Society's understanding.
M1919a2
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Washington
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The uniforms of the opposing forces - one side MASKED, the other Un-masked!

Target Identification and POA!
Asimov
Posts: 117841
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East Tennessee
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To those of you who wear masks "when you have to"... I'm tempted to be really ****ing obnoxiously rude to you right now, but I'm going to refrain for a couple reasons.

Why? Because I've had a really good evening and I don't want to ruin it.

More importantly: Why2? Because I'm not in your shoes and I'm not sure what I would do if I "had" to wear one to, say, go buy groceries to feed my kids. It's always easy to say what somebody else should do when you don't actually have to put it on the line yourself.


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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Twainfan2
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Another tidbit about the cold... put a mask or scarf on in the winter then beathe out... you can still see your breath travel a fair distance thru the mask/scarf. There are a lot of stupid people in this world.
Cookietough
Posts: 46
Incept: 2018-12-29

JBLM
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And the Legionnares' and other respiratory disease will be classified as Covid or "Covid probable"... bring another ventilator, nurse!
Lenguado
Posts: 3131
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Orlando, FL
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Quote:
If this nation cannot face the realities of physics then we are back to the persecution of Galileo and the burning of "witches" at Salem. There is utterly no point in my, or any other thinking person's continued engagement on any matter of economics, politics, public health or other policy if that is to be the regression of intelligence and logic among the people of this nation as what was America is doomed to collapse back into the Dark Ages.

I've been saying this for quite a while now.

But it isn't just this nation - it is worldwide. Humans evolved from cave paintings to Shakespeare. We are now DEVOLVING from Shakespeare back to cave paintings (imojis).
smiley

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"War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself." --Unknown

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." - President John F. Kennedy
Smacktle
Posts: 2662
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Texas
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Karl, you mentioned a while back a question to ask others that throw the old why do surgeons wear masks when in surgery question. You had a great comeback and I cant find it. Can you post it again or does anybody else remember it?

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NO LIVES MATTER

Reason: Need answers ; )
Mannfm11
Posts: 6400
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DFW, Tx
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Since the CDC can't follow it's own funded research, why continue to fund it? Iguess we are a country of ****ty hands.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Jeepguy
Posts: 294
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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America is doomed the rest of the world knows it, in fact Angela Merkel of (Germany) came out this past week and told her nation to prepare for a time soon when America is no longer a superpower! Said they may, (paraphrasing) it was more than hinting that they may have to Ally via perhaps the east!!

Last night this story came out of Israel.. they already said they're going with China and basically told us to **** off!!
Jennifer La Fontaine had a video showing the article last night!
https://www.google.com/sorry/index?conti....
(Just pay attention to what the article says right from Israel before you get all butthurt about her)!!

Yes the masks, the riots all the bull****, but of course it's a distraction! Face it!
Let's just say it was "bankers" who used America as it's ***** and now they're done with us, we're going down drowning in debt that "they" created out of the thin air!

All of our politicians dating back Decades before anyone on this forum was born has been these little ****s butt buddies!

Yeah lot's of people not only got the cult of personality worship bug pretty bad about politicians, but damn they got it real bad about a certain group that goes out of their way to tell us all about how they are such small numbers!!
That group of folks or their Government gets loads of money from the USA we borrow into existence Mass amounts of money just to pay for their cradle-to-grave healthcare system, their education system oh yeah we cover plenty of their military expenses in fact they wouldn't even have a ****ing nuclear program if the bastards didn't steal it from us!!

then they got nerve enough to talk about how they're going to turn tails and go to China, that they're done with us!

But there again a lot of people got it drummed in their ****ing heads that oh no you can't talk about them! No no... cult of personality worship!
Might I also add umm WW2 is ****ing over!!

Hummmmmm interesting, I can rightfully argue with the brown folks about how
"I owe you nothing via I wasn't there when your ancestors was slaves"!

But I don't dare say, "**** off small hat grabblers I wasn't around in WW2 stop milking it"
Or
"Yeah gee sounds like a bad deal, well you've all been fine since then so gee life goes on"
Perhaps
"Yeah pretty funny you guys holler about Germany, but mmmmmyeah you're kind is doing the same thing in Palestine, no matter what book you read genocide is genocide"!

Oh **** no and we certainly can't talk about the facts of race in the middle East!
Like ummm the ****ing fact they're all semetic people and they're all Arabs....

thus Israel always stealing their neighbor's land for the greater Israel project, while at the same time systematically killing them, constantly bombing their neighbors (Syria seems to be a favorite Target) yeah I'd say that they're actually the biggest anti-semitic motherfukers on the face of the Earth!

Hummm gee I guess, I don't dare point out that we tend to do their dirty work! I just mean we fight the actual war!!

But **** us they now must go with china!
Jeepguy
Posts: 294
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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@M1919a2 yeah considering it's them star of David folks pushing this mask ****!
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