The Nasty On Coronavirus: Quick Hit
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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work becasue under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-06-26 15:25 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 2151 references Ignore this thread
The Nasty On Coronavirus: Quick Hit
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Presume the following, all of which are facts:

1. CDC says we have 10x as many people who have had Coronavirus as were tested (e.g. for every symptomatic tested we have 10 who never were and are either asymptomatic or think it's something else -- they sneeze, etc)  By the way, they really do say this -- that's not conjecture on my part although I've been pointing out that by the math this was nearly certain to be the case since March.

2. We know there is material cross-immunity.  We knew this in February (Diamond Princess)  The exact percentage of such cross-immunity was not known (and still isn't) but reasonable estimates were around 50% initially, and have remained there as more data has been developed.  Specifically, there is no evidence that material community spread is maintainable once 20% of any given population has had it.  This has held up on a worldwide basis.

3. NY has recorded 390,000 positives.  Multiply by 10, that's 3.9 million people.  This is almost-exactly 20% of the population.

4. If 50%, more or less, have cross-immunity the remaining susceptible population is approximately 30%.

HERD SUPPRESSION IS 66%, MORE OR LESS, FOR AN R0 OF 3.0.

This is why you can loot, burn and riot in NY, with zero social distancing, and nothing happens.  There should have been tens of thousands of primary infections from that event and over 100,000 secondary infections before the primary infected persons got sick enough to seek treatment in NY.  The facts are that this didn't happen.

Incidentally 64% of NY State's population is in the NYC Metro; it's a monstrous percentage.

Illinois?  140,000 cases.  1.4 million infected, or ~11% of the population.  50% is immune.  That's 61%, or within spitting distance of 66%, which is why they rioted, looted and burned, all with no social distancing, and nothing material happened.  Like NY, 9.5 million of Illinois' people are in one place -- Metro Chicago, which is a monstrous 75% of the entire state's residents.

Massachusetts?  107,000 positive tests, so 1.07 million actual cases out of a population of 6.89 million, or 15.5%.  Add 50% for innate and you're right at the magic 66%, aren't you?  Did Massachusetts have "no BLM" protests?  Of course they did and of course there is a nice concentration of people in cities like Boston, but what happened?  Nothing material.  Gee, I wonder why not.....

Maryland?  Same deal, 11% prevalence.  That's 61%, or damn close to 66%.  Did they have a spike? Yes; a small one.  Gee, I wonder why?

Michigan?  They've also seen a very large increase in daily positive rates (nearly double!) and have an under 10% presumed positive incidence.  68,989 positives, 10x presumed, so 690,000 out of a population of 9.9 million or ~7%.  They're actually at ~57% so again, they can have (and have had) a decent but not exponential spike.

Now look at Florida.  114,000 positive tests, so 1.14 million actually infected.  Florida has 21.5 million residents, so ~5.3%.  Cross-immunity is still 50%, so now it's 55%, roughly.  You cannot get an exponential detonation since 66% is only 10% away, but you can get significant community transmission -- and did.  Again, it's centered where the population is; Florida has four materially-large metro areas -- Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale cluster.  Incidentally Governor DeSATAN has flat-out lied; he closed bars in response to the spike, blaming the lack of masks and social distancing in them.  He knows he's full of crap because the place where the spike count is largest, Dade County, never did reopen its bars.

Arizona's spike was mostly Maricopa county (Phoenix.)  Arizona has had 63,000 positives, so 630,000.  Arizona has 7.2 million residents, so again we run the math (~8.75% positive current or historical) and find a decent community spike can happen too (and did) but an exponential detonation cannot.

Texas?  131,917 cases reported, so 10x that is 1,319,170 infected out of 29 million population, or 4.55%.  Texas, like every other state, concentrates its population into metro areas; Dallas/Ft. Worth and Austin, specifically.  Innate immunity at 50% + 4.55 = 54.55%, below the herd level, so again a decent-sized community spike can and did happen.  Where did it happen and  what did we see in Houston and Austin over the last month?  But again, an exponential detonation cannot happen.

Tennessee is the same story.  38,000 cases, so 380,000 presumed out of 6.82 million; 5.57%, so herd is currently at ~56%.  Again, you can (and the state has) had a decent community spike.  Again, the really big numbers are in the population centers; Nashville and Memphis.  Again, an exponential detonation cannot happen but there are so-called "experts" claiming that Tennessee has "blown it".  That's a ******ned lie, the people making such statements know it, and they need to be ejected from all public-policy roles -- by any means necessary.

Wait, you say... what?  Exponential detonation cannot happen?  Why not?

Because it never could anywhere in the United States and in fact it never did happen.

It also never did anywhere else in the world.

Look at the curves; you will find that the doomsday scenario never happened anywhere, whether lockdowns were taken or not.  Peru and Brazil took completely, 100% opposite approaches and yet their death rates are near-identical.  This is hard, scientific evidence that even a lockdown does nothing; in no case do you get the "feared" exponential detonation.

That's because with the cross-immunity already present in the population of the world it couldn't happen; once you get to about half of suppression the transmission rate is dampened enough that the pattern cannot happen.

The CDC and everyone else assumed originally in all their models, and the IHME and others still do, that it can happen because they presumed that everyone was and is today susceptible.  So Florida has only seen 0.5% penetration, New York 2%, etc.

That was bull**** right up front and both Fauci and Birx admitted it when they owned the 10:1 ratio on stage today.  The so-called experts all now admit they were wrong yet people still cling to the lie.

The fact of the matter is that only one thing has removed the risk of material spikes: Herd immunity.  And it is the states that locked down hardest and first that have gotten there. Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, etc.

Now the "experts" are shifting to "well, you might infect someone who's especially at risk."

Well, the answer to that is easy: That person should take extra precautions.

My nephew Bryan died of leukemia a number of years ago.  He had two runs at it; the first time we all thought he beat it.  We were wrong; it came back and killed him.  When he was undergoing chemo everyone had to be extremely careful because his immune system was trashed; a common cold could kill him.  That wasn't everyone else's responsibility, however; we could have never considered demanding that everyone within 6' of us wear a mask and that he could go out to dinner and insist on that for everyone in the building.

Yet if one of his family members went out and brought a cold or flu home he was very likely to die.

Nonetheless my family did not, nor do we ever, demand that everyone else mitigate said risk under that circumstance.  It's unreasonable, it's unsupportable under the law and it's dead flat wrong as a matter of public policy.

Never mind that the science is clear: MASKS DO NOTHING to inhibit transmission of respiratory viruses.  This isn't my assertion it is the scientific conclusion of multiple randomized controlled trials.  They're worthless.

We now know there was never a risk of an exponential, 2+ million dead situation occurring in the United States, never mind that if that had been right we couldn't have stopped it anyway.  The CDC itself now admits this.  Birx and Fauci admitted it on CSPAN-2 this afternoon.

If you only catch via testing one in ten infections it is literally impossible to test and trace your way to suppression!  That's obvious and therefore any such attempt is STUPID; you must successfully trace seven of every ten potential transmissions; that's impossible with a 10:1 symptomatic to asymptomatic infection rate.  Further if the highest community infection rate numbers are where the most-stringent orders were issued then THAT obviously doesn't work either.

Both of these are indisputable facts.

Now add this: There is no depression of transmission with increasing absolute humidity.  This is proof that this is not primarily an aerosol-transmitted virus as that bit of mystery was cracked over a decade ago and explains why flu "disappears" for the most part in the summer.  That lack of correlation means it is being transmitted manually.  I have been pointing this out since February.

Again: Every single aerosol-transmitted virus has a Rt (actual transmission rate) inversely correlated with absolute humidity.

Every.
Single.
One.

But Covid-19 does not.  Therefore the majority of transmission is not occurring via this route.

Period.

The time for bull**** is over folks.  Yes, people are going to get this bug.  Yes, immunity will probably wane and when it does you can get it again, just like the flu.  Yes, if you're at particular risk take special precautions for yourself.

But for everyone else?

LIVE YOUR LIFE, ENJOY ALL YOUR USUAL SOCIAL EXPERIENCES AND TELL STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS TO GO BLOW GOATS AND THAT THEY WILL CUT THE CRAP RIGHT NOW.  WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS WITH SOAP AND WATER, FREQUENTLY -- NOT HAND SANITIZER.  THAT IS THE BEST MITIGATION WE HAVE AS IT ATTACKS THE ACTUAL ISSUE -- MANUAL TRANSMISSION, THAT IS, ON YOUR HANDS.

THEY KNOW THEY'RE LYING AT THIS POINT AND NOW YOU DO TOO.

It has now been admitted in public, by the very "experts" claiming to be the ones making the "rules", that they were wrong from the outset about the susceptibility and thus the potential range of outcomes.

In addition Birx admitted that the severe cases are in fact being successfully handled by protocols that THE VERY NIH FAUCI HEADS claims should not be used as of last night.  I'm sure someone's hastily changing that after she clowned them on live TV.

I've been saying all of this since the start -- and now even they're admitting it on air.

The game's over folks and exactly nobody should give quarter, of any sort, to anyone who tries to run any bull**** otherwise.

smiley

PS: Incidentally, in terms of markets, if the Screaming Karens run into a barrel up their nose as the public wakes up to the above facts then the very last thing you want to be, in market terms, is short anything in equity or credit. 

Especially those areas that are partially or wholly shut in today.

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Radiosity
Posts: 485
Incept: 2009-03-05

Sunny UK
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The problem is that people already made their minds up when they were most scared and are no longer capable of changing them. Doesn't matter what new info comes to light, their minds are made up.

Meanwhile, the elites aren't going to let it sit either because this is all part of the plan. Mandatory vaccinations, digital ID, restrictions if you don't have a certificate, etc.

Of course, if you try telling people what's going on, they look at you with roughly the same expression they reserve for people like Alex Jones (who, I will point out, has actually got a pretty good track record of being proved right). This, despite the UN, EU, Bill Gates, and others OUTRIGHT TELLING US WHAT THEY'RE PLANNING TO DO TO US.

Frankly, I've given up trying to educate anyone now. These last few months have proved conclusively that it's a waste of time and effort I could instead spend on my books. At least I can sell those and use the money to prepare for the coming apocalypse, heh.
Movedtonz
Posts: 1315
Incept: 2008-03-09

Hawkes Bay
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One thing... the R0 = 3 was calculated with the assumption of zero initial immunity if I recall accurately.

If I am doing my sums correctly, if there is ~50% initial immunity, then the R0 amongst the non-immune would then be six.

It gets messy in the details when half of the population is either immune or never gets symptoms. In the early days, they generally only tested if one had symptoms, so some of the presumed immunity could also be ascribed to asymptomatic infection and recovery.

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Americans need to stop claiming stupidity to get out of responsibility. -Tsk
Purplefang
Posts: 90
Incept: 2010-03-28

Oklahoma
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Most people have no in depth understanding of the science. They see one headline saying positive cases went up for a day and they are ****ting their pants. Even if Birx admitted this did they take the next step and actually in plain english tell people it is over. People can not reach this conclusion on their on.

I saw a child playing on the outdoor playground in the 90 F sun with a mask on. This is the level of ignorance we have to deal with.

Thelazer
Posts: 395
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
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But, were shutting down again in Florida anyways.
The pain will continue until moral... ER the election odds improve.
Greenacr
Posts: 92
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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Once the population begins to realize that this is all a hoax/way over blown. The Media/Elites will tee up another issue to rile everyone up and shift their attention. That new issue is probably being queued up now...
Goforbroke
Posts: 8530
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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Nothing will change because Biden has adopted a brilliant campaign strategy ... namely that Trump did and is continuing to screw up on the approach to CV and this is resulting in a gezillion deaths, hospitalizations, and cases. Biden just sits back in his mask in his basement with virtual rallies (he's looking out for YOUR health) and you know what? That's going to work.

The fear mongering will continue.

It's all political now, and the ultimate resolution ... that is (currently, at least) in the Tinfoil Forum.

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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Invisiblesun
Posts: 71
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
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Americans have substituted dogma for intelligence. They no longer think according to evidence. Rather they declare with certainty a tribal belief and no amount of evidence changes their mind.

Consider: Cuomo himself observes that the majority of infections occurred in homes among people who were homebound. What do the Karen's push for? More stay at home orders!

Another example: The Karen's assert that masks are the one thing that will mitigate Covid. You then ask, I understand Asians wear masks. Yes they do. So why did Wuhan have a Covid breakout and why was it necessary to literally lock people into their homes? If masks can stop Covid why not just have the people wear masks?

Crickets.

The politicians are all too willing to pander to this stupidity. For it empowers them to play along with the charade that only government intervention can save the people.

I am an optimistic person, but I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel for the USA. The people have got the government they want and deserve.

Purplefang
Posts: 90
Incept: 2010-03-28

Oklahoma
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I would guess people who get out in the sun and out to socialize are the ones that have cross immunity. Since I eat out at restaurants all the time my exposure to feces hands is inevitable, but it has gave me the equivalent of many vaccinations. I had some sort of virus in early January that knocked me down for 3 days. The symptoms were more gastrointestinal, but actually this covid-19 could do that. I have to assume I am already immune to this and have zero fear of eating out and going maskless into any setting.
Shannonlk1
Posts: 207
Incept: 2008-12-02

Raleigh
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This guy has it. For him, just a cold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnQpA2Zf....

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Criminals thrive on the indulgence of Society's understanding.
Luke8929
Posts: 26
Incept: 2008-10-13

Hooterville
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Most people realize that Covid is BS at this point but the initial response to this was panic and money for everyone. The money spout is drying up so people see an increase in the numbers as a way to get the Treasury and Fed to turn the faucet back on. Wanting to get re elected Trumplestilstkin spins straw into greenbacks and sends them another $1200 and Jerome sends another trillion or two to the banks to buy stocks so no one cares if the numbers and the panic are not real. If you want to sit at home and drink beer in the Sun wouldn't why wouldn't you cheer on the fake numbers? This doesn't end until the free money dries up and that would mean Trump is a one term president so I don't see the money stopping.
Anderson4707
Posts: 14
Incept: 2011-04-17

Illinois
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Got this second hand but a nurse said when somebody test positive they get a retest to confirm the results. Here's the catch instead of counting as another positive result it is counted as 2 positive results. So if this is true the actual rate of infection is half of what is reported.

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What was the right thing then may not be now. What does your heart tell you?
Depression2020
Posts: 86
Incept: 2020-03-20

Northern Virginia
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In my opinion today's release from CDC assessing the true case count as 10 times higher than the confirmed count just seems like repackaging old new. When the CDC released the newer fatality rates in late May, you had to multiply the number of cases then by more than 10 to get to their assessed fatality rate. At that time they acknowledged only 35% silent/asymptomatic infection rate. The high positivity in antibody testing studies had been piling up in reporting for weeks before that. Even Dr. Scott Gottlieb, in his daily CV-19 propaganda spot on CNBS started to publicly assess weeks ago that the true infection rate was at least 10 times higher based upon the antibody testing.

Using the notional 50% cross-immunity number, many states (like Virginia where I live) still have so few confirmed cases that multiplying by 10 only leaves you with a ways to go - in VA it would be about 585k (6.8 percent of population). At least I heard the subject of cross immunity raised by a guest on Laura's show the other night. It will probably be several more weeks before a CDC release on the same captures the news cycle.

While the weather has been great around here, the outdoor community pools in Northern VA remain closed and Laura Ingraham highlighted on her show how Fairfax County School District is planning to offer two ridiculous choices to parents next school year - full-time online education or in-person classes two days a week. The rest of the developed world, including Europe and Canada have reopened or plan to reopen schools next year. The Scared Karens that rule Northern Virginia are the dominant demographic in the workforce of the national security sector in all the Alphabet Soup agencies. These counties may face a big backlash if government goes ahead with plans to bring the idle workforce back in July. Hopefully we get to Phase 3 in time for schools to open, because the alternative will have too much of a negative impact on the population otherwise, and it wouldn't be tolerated without a return to the paid to not work situation people are in now. But I can also see scenario where the Karens freak out about the delayed (not prevented) infections surging back, and go back into panic mode.

Meanwhile, the media has increasing the aggressiveness of its mask propaganda. CNN runs a segment on the subject almost on the hour, like commuter traffic reports. I think the low fatality rate of the disease is not repeated often enough, probably because it doesn't scare people enough. A key motivation of cable new networks is to get people to consumer their product, and fear is a common motivator (If it Bleeds it Leads).

Did you see the print and television news cycle earlier this week covering the public hearing in Palm Springs on mask use? This coverage featured the most ignorant conspiracy theorists that attended That's a classic tactic I've ranted about before, used to discredit one side of an issue - playing sound bites and (in other cases) interviewing the most ignorant members of the opposition. Since the liberal media has broken the cease fire again with this tactic, I wish conservative press would counter by sticking microphones in the face of more of the ignorant rambling leftists, and then cherry picking the dumbest and most ridiculous sound bites to discredit them more effectively.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 3803
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Only 17.% of the people on the Diamond Princess ever tested positive if my data is correct.

If NY is at 2% positive, that would mean 8.5 times as many could be infected and not know it and you would get to 17%. 8.5 is close enough to the CDCs 10 to count.

Also 50% immune plus 17% gets you to 67% and again close to herd immunity and definitely enough to prevent any large outbreaks.

Is it possible that only a single digit percentage is really at-risk with this virus?

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Tritumi
Posts: 256
Incept: 2008-11-29

tokyo
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@Invisiblesun: You then ask, I understand Asians wear masks. Yes they do. So why did Wuhan have a Covid breakout and why was it necessary to literally lock people into their homes? If masks can stop Covid why not just have the people wear masks?

Three questions conflated so best to break them out for logical responses. Just my own opinions follow:

1. "why did Wuhan have a Covid breakout?" Because that is where the lab accident occurred.

2. "why was it necessary to literally lock people into their homes?" Because CCP at higher levels realized lower local levels had concealed and confused data resulting in probability of massive national crisis. Being brutally authoritarian with a compliant population has primitive pragmatic benefits in some circumstances.

3. "If masks can stop Covid why not just have the people wear masks?" Premise ("if") is faulty. Masks are presumed at best to slow transmission, to some degree, not stop it. (whether such a presumption is valid or not, and if so, in what way, with what protocols, and to what degree, remains, IMO, debatable.)
Chromehill
Posts: 43
Incept: 2010-03-03

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I was listening to a podcast (Pat Flynn show), he said he just saw a study out of Penn State that confirmed a study out of Stanford that the rate of infection could actually be 80 times higher. I think the CDC is low-balling the rate of infection when they say 10 times.

Also, I believe it was a study out of Germany that indicated cross immunity was between 20% (UK) and 50% (Germany) of the population. Who knows what it is in the USA, and it could be different based upon the region of the country. However, no matter what it is, it is significant and when coupled with the huge increase in rate of infection means that the USA is close to herd immunity, certainly within a couple of cranks.

Trump should be screaming this and end the national emergency. Idiot!

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"Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right" - Gerry Spence
Elkad
Posts: 1210
Incept: 2009-09-04

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Is the 50% cross-immunity confirmed anywhere, or just projected from isolated populations like Princess and CVN Teddy?

I'm not doubting it, just wondering if CDC or a similar agency has actually said that.
Ebt
Posts: 245
Incept: 2018-12-22

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I ask this question (and I don't know the answer), but I think it important.

If you get Covid19 and its asymptomatic or mild, then you lose your immunity over 3-4+ months, but then get it again -- Is it more dangerous, less dangeorous, or no difference for subsequent infection?
Chromehill
Posts: 43
Incept: 2010-03-03

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Apparently since the virus is racist, could sickle-cell be a factor? Obviously the rate of obesity and the associated health problems is a huge factor in the disparity of outcomes for different races. Possibly sickle-cell explains it?

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"Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right" - Gerry Spence
M1919a2
Posts: 702
Incept: 2015-07-18

Washington
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Now that the horse has been beaten to dead and gone,

How bout doing the R0 calculation on the Virus that IS going to destroy US

The VIRUS of CULTURAL MARXISM-LENINISM!

Frankly, that is something you can really get your teeth into, possibly DO SOMETHING ABOUT!

JUST SAYING!
Thelazer
Posts: 395
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
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EBT. Our host mentioned awhile back, the theory I believe is that you would have limited immunity to it, far better to get a mild strain NOW and have that immunity (if even limited) in this upcoming flu season.

No one that I know, is able to project out a year from now... those lab results haven't leaked yet.
Frieza
Posts: 32
Incept: 2019-03-09

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Looks like a couple of Catholic priests and Orthodox Jews managed a successful injunction against Cuomo and de Blasio for their flagrant hypocrisy regarding the protests and social distancing. A very small victory.

Quote:
As a result of the federal order, Cuomo, James, and de Blasio are "enjoined and restrained from enforcing any indoor gathering limitations against the involved houses of worship greater than imposed for Phase 2 industries, provided that participants follow the prescribed social distancing.

They are also forbidden from enforcing any limitation for outdoor gatherings provided that participants in such gatherings follow social distancing requirements as set forth in the applicable executive orders and guidance.

In his decision, Sharpe notes the limits placed on houses of worship by the New York leaders: Still limiting houses of worship to 25 percent indoor capacity during Phases 2 and 3 and a 25 person outdoor gathering limit in Phase 3 locations, and a 10-person gathering limit in Phase 1 and 2, while allowing mass protests and other numbers for businesses and 150-person outdoor graduation ceremonies.


https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-york-coro....
Pinxrn
Posts: 3
Incept: 2016-07-23

Lake Worth
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Anderson4707 I have similar thoughts as your nurse friend. Often initial tests are "presumptive positive" and get a re-test to confirm. Once the person's symptoms have resolved, many get tested again to see if the virus "cleared". I have seen patients test positive 5-6 times while waiting to break quarantine and go back to work. The big question is.... are these subsequent positive tests counted in the daily totals or parsed out as they are re-tests?
Things that make you go Hmmmmmm....
Tonythetiger
Posts: 48
Incept: 2019-01-27

Fort Walton
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Elkad wrote:
Quote:
Is the 50% cross-immunity confirmed anywhere, or just projected from isolated populations like Princess and CVN Teddy?

German researchers found T-cells recognizing Covid virus in 34% of people with no exposure to the disease.

Recent work by La Jolla Institute for Immunology looked at blood samples from 2015 - 2018 and found ~50% had T-cells which recognized Covid virus.

Application of Baysian mathematical modelling across different populations of Covid infections suggests
Quote:
the effective susceptible (German) population was never 100%, and was at most 50% and probably more like only 20%

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/06/jose....

(Article at that link contains links to various other supporting data sources)

Radiosity
Posts: 485
Incept: 2009-03-05

Sunny UK
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Actually, while we're on this subject, here's a handy link to basically all the known facts on Covid-19, including government overreach and other tangentially related issues:

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covi....

Useful if you want to educate someone or just throw a link out and hope some people bother educating themselves.
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