in Editorial , 802 references
It's simple folks.
If you want the whole story and why it has to be true then listen to the postcast.
It'll be up shortly.
Simply put, it's this -- R0 is likely around 3.0 We're intentionally undersampling, plus test error, so the original estimates around 3.0 look good. Outside edge on that is likely 2.5 +/- 0.1
Social distancing and lockdowns have only reduced it by approximately 0.5 and even with the extremely aggressive "shelter in place" orders we're only getting another tenth -- that is, 0.6. That's within the margin of error, so the difference between "shelter in place" and "slam closed all restaurants, bars, groups larger than 50, 10, 2 or whatever" is only 0.1 which is a statistical ZERO.
A reminder: It has to go below 1.0 to stop the spread. It has to go below 1.3 or thereabouts to spread no more nastily than the seasonal flu.
Where's the rest coming from?
We've cut social interaction by 90%+ for nearly everyone in the country.
But we've increased the concentration of people with it (as the cases have gone up) in hospitals and that has to be where the spread into and through the community is coming from.
We know that's happening in nursing homes and such but it's happening in every hospital too and has been since this started.
THE PROTOCOL HAS TO CHANGE IN HOSPITALS EVERYWHERE AND ANYWHERE IN THE US RIGHT NOW TO THIS:
WASH YOUR FUCKING HANDS.
WASH THEM BEFORE AND AFTER EACH CONTACT WITH ANY SURFACE OR PERSON.
WITHOUT EXCEPTION, EVERY TIME, PERIOD.
NOT HAND SANITIZER, SOAP AND WATER.
BEFORE AND AFTER.
ENFORCE THIS PROTOCOL LIKE DAMNED NAZIS AND ANYONE WHO BREAKS IT, EVEN ONCE, IS OUT, IS FIRED AND CANNOT RETURN. PERIOD. I DON'T CARE WHO THEY ARE; NOTHING LESS THAN 100% COMPLIANCE IS ACCEPTABLE. RIGHT NOW.
NO, GLOVES DO NOT CHANGE THIS. NOR DO MASKS.
DOCTORS, NURSES, ORDERLIES AND OTHER WORKERS ARE TRANSPORTING THE VIRUS OUT OF THE HOSPITALS AND ONTO SURFACES AND PERSONS IN THE GENERAL POPULATION.
THEY ARE THE VECTOR. THEY HAVE TO BE BECAUSE WE'VE SHUT DOWN VIRTUALLY EVERY OTHER POTENTIAL SOCIAL SOURCE OF CONTACT AND TRANSMISSION AND YET ALL WE GOT OUT OF IT IS AN 0.5 CHANGE IN R0.
IT CAN'T BE MOSQUITOES OR OTHER INSECTS, NOR OTHER VERMIN BECAUSE THE DENSITY OF THOSE FACTORS VARIES FROM PLACE TO PLACE AND YET NYC .VS. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ONLY HAS A 0.1-0.2 DIFFERENCE IN MEASURED R0.
IT'S PEOPLE, AND THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO ARE INTERACTING WITH THE REST OF THE POPULATION RIGHT NOW THROUGH THEIR CONTACT WITH THE SURFACES WE ALL HAVE CONTACT WITH AND WHO ARE WHERE THE VIRUS IS CONCENTRATED ARE THOSE WHO WORK IN THE HOSPITALS.
AND BY THE WAY, THIS ALSO PROVES IT'S NOT PRIMARILY BEING TRANSMITTED IN VAPOR AND AEROSOLS FROM YOUR MOUTH. IF IT WAS THEN "SOCIAL DISTANCING" WOULD HAVE SLASHED R0 BY WELL MORE THAN HALF.
THE VIRUS IS, TO A LARGE DEGREE, BEING SHED AND TRANSFERRED OUT YOUR ASS.