THE SIMPLE NUMERICAL FACTS
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2020-03-23 11:56 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 440 references Ignore this thread
THE SIMPLE NUMERICAL FACTS
[Comments enabled]

FACTS:

Last year flu, CDC:

490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths.

Case fatality rate on the same testing basis for Coronavirus today: 6.97%

Right now, US, 31,888 positives398 deaths.

Case fatality rate considering that essentially all Coronavirus tests to date have been in hospitals: 1.25%

But that's not fair, because the CDC says only 12% of "cases" are hospitalized.  Ok, so we'll adjust:

3,826 positives, 398 deaths.

Case fatality rate when comparing like for like: 10.4%.

Is Coronavirus more deadly than seasonal flu?  Yes.

Is it 10 or 100x more deadly to the point that we should shut down the economy and spazz out?

NO.

These are not my numbers.  They're the CDC's numbers.  The same CDC and folks like Fauci that are trying to scare the living **** out of you, and being intentionally falsely reported by both politicians and the media.

This is all public data folks.  Most people never see a doctor for Coronavirus, just as most people never see a doctor for The Flu.

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Ocdawg
Posts: 37
Incept: 2019-03-14

WI- Home of undoing good....
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Quoting you KD... with permission

MATH posts are truth posts... forwarding to all I know...

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Living just north of where gun control works... BAWHAHAHAHA
Augeries
Posts: 57
Incept: 2019-09-26

"North of Boston" whatever that means
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Well, MA is going into a "stay at home". It's not a lockdown, it's not martial law, it's just a nice "stay at home". Yeah. I'm glad I don't live there anymore, although I'm sure NH isn't far behind.

Was snowmobiling up north over the weekend. All the people up there could care less. They think Covid is all a government conspiracy. **** social distancing, I ended up at a house party with like 20 people and kids. I don't think they expect a lockdown for them, they have about 5 cops to cover a few hundred square miles.

Hell of a difference a few hours drive can make.

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The World is Quiet Here
Ladygrover
Posts: 10
Incept: 2016-04-19

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Why is no one talking about this study?

Influenza vaccination and respiratory virus interference among Department of Defense personnel during the 20172018 influenza season:

Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus; however, significant protection with vaccination was associated not only with most influenza viruses, but also parainfluenza, RSV, and non-influenza virus coinfections.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar....
Lunatic_fringe
Posts: 9420
Incept: 2007-06-26

Location: Terra Firma
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Whatever the numbers the strategy to shut things down has been a terrible one. The real problem is that politicians will just double down when the social distancing and closing of "non-essentials" doesn't work.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Then eventually, @Lunatic_fringe, people will shoot.

They will either shoot because the lies are worse than the risk of shooting, or because the lies have destroyed them to the point that it doesn't matter if they shoot.

Consider this -- I'm not gay, but if I was, in the early 1980s when I knew the CDC and Feinstein had refused to close the bathhouses in San Francisco, and as a result I was HIV+ and guaranteed to die there would have been a LOT of dead politicians.

I was young and full of cum at the time too. I would have ABSOLUTELY gone hunting; after all, you can only kill me once and, if I got that virus at that time, I was already dead.

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Winding it down.
Jesjohn94
Posts: 161
Incept: 2019-05-07

Atlanta
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Even if 200 million globally die with the virus we cant shutdown the entire world for 18 months to avoid it. Why is that such a complicated decision?
Nadavegan
Posts: 193
Incept: 2017-05-03

The South
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I cannot believe how many citizens willingly go along with this crap, and then go on to shame others who dare to take a walk in the neighborhood. I am actively rooting for the virus now, maybe even a Captain Trips mutation. We deserve nothing less at this point.
Skybluepink
Posts: 447
Incept: 2007-10-20

RI
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So either our overlords are all dumb as dog ****, or there is something else going on....
Captainkip
Posts: 11
Incept: 2019-07-03


Online
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A critical period will be at the end of this 15-day quarantine period.

If we are not seeing a startling increase of new cases and new deaths and the PTB try to go for another 15-30 day quarantine, which would guaranty bankrupted companies, jobs lost forever and lives truly ruined...

there's going to be some serious trouble in the streets.
Bluebird
Posts: 1965
Incept: 2008-05-02

SW Ohio
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It doesn't make sense to shut down businesses and have people stay at home because of this virus. I get that it can be serious and people are dying.
I'm 71, so yeh, I could be greatly impacted, or maybe not. I have no underlying conditions and in good health.
So I'm thinking something else is going on that when 'it' becomes known, the guidelines being setup because of the virus, will change into mandatory.
Something evil is coming.
Jack_crabb
Posts: 7043
Incept: 2010-06-25

Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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The response to this really makes me wonder what tinfoil conspiracy theory will turn out to be true this time.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Greenrebellion
Posts: 592
Incept: 2009-01-03

Michigan
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3 week stay in place order starting tomorrow morning for my state of Michigan.

I wish someone would come out and tell us what magic is going to happen after 3 weeks that will solve everything.
Toddmeister
Posts: 107
Incept: 2009-08-10

Bay City, MI
Online
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Well now Michigan joined the "stay at home" with Gov Gretchen's newest order.

Looks like I am heading north soon to get in one more snowmobiling trip...
(outdoor activity is still permitted, how nice!)



Nacnud62
Posts: 15
Incept: 2018-12-19

New Mexico
Banned
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The CDC estimated fatalities for flu is a bald-faced lie. If you look on MMWR, the statistics are for pneumonia and influenza COMBINED. Quoting 34,000, or 80,000 as flu deaths assumes that ALL pneumonia deaths are due to influenza. Absolute bull****.
Kennington
Posts: 27
Incept: 2013-09-12

Pittsburgh, Pa
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2 week stay about to be announced here in Pittsburgh at 2:00pm est.

So let me get this straight, I've got to stay in my house for the next two weeks but we haven't canceled flights from Seattle to Pittsburgh. You can go out and get groceries, 100's of folks in the store touching everything, but not ok to walk around a nearby park or golf course.

I can't believe more people aren't objecting to this...
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@NacNud62 -
Quote:
The CDC estimated fatalities for flu is a bald-faced lie. If you look on MMWR, the statistics are for pneumonia and influenza COMBINED. Quoting 34,000, or 80,000 as flu deaths assumes that ALL pneumonia deaths are due to influenza. Absolute bull****.

No different than saying that all the Italian deaths are due to Coronavirus -- or all ours are.

The only FAIR stat is excess pneumonia deaths. But nobody compiles that. So baseline is what the CDC has, which is "flu" includes pneumonia, but so does "Coronavirus".

Apples-to-apples.

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Winding it down.

Kennington
Posts: 27
Incept: 2013-09-12

Pittsburgh, Pa
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Latest CDC numbers out on Corona virus...

33,453 virus cases and 400 dead. For the math challenged media, that's 1.19%.

Really?
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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They're behind a bit (my high frequency data is a bit different, but close) -- but yep.

Oh, and by the way, I remind you again of the CFR for hospital admitted "flu" patients LAST YEAR, before all of this, which is ALSO CDC data and is in the top post.

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Winding it down.
Pandemicsamurai
Posts: 30
Incept: 2020-03-17

Atlanta
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So my colleague from GBI says that the GA governor is going to follow the rest of the coward lemmings at his 5 PM press conference and issue a "stay at home" order to the entire state of GA ... this was the same individual who said it would come on Friday, but it seems like this is more likely as Atlanta mayor was going to issue the order and was told to stand down by the governor for his 5 PM conference.

There has to be something bigger going on here with the ridiculous coordination of governors across both party aisles issuing these orders into mid April ... I still think we're going to war with China and it will be easier to suppress civil unrest as Trump isn't interested in a war but the MIC definitely is ...

Bluemarrow
Posts: 38
Incept: 2009-06-14

Earth
Banned
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Of course they know everything you wrote is true, to the best of current knowledge.

Pence said it yesterday: "We are in day seven of 15"

I think that's been the plan all along. Since no one has a clue as to how many people have had it, have it, or will get it, they are guessing where they are on the curve. They saw Italy, and pulled the trigger. After day 15, we transition to the new normal. Then they can say they took every measure possible that they deemed reasonable. "In the best interests of the Country, and the overwhelming majority of Americans, we encourage you to get back out there, take on more debt, and spend money you don't have."

Curious if anyone else has heard this anecdotal story. The way this is playing out has puzzled me on two points in particular: Why Northern Italy. And why not Vancouver?

I was told (Could be complete BS) that Northern Italy is well known for high end leather production and that the Chinese bout out the businesses in the last 10 years or so. I was told they were brought in labor on charters, with workers going back and forth. Where from/to? Wuhan. Anyone else here this?
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Bluemarrow -- Absolutely true. The scheduled air service between those areas was basically a Greyhound bus.

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Winding it down.
Kennington
Posts: 27
Incept: 2013-09-12

Pittsburgh, Pa
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Pelosi and Chuck-you-too Schumer delaying the passage of bailout bill wanting provisions for the airlines to be "more climate focused" as a string attached for getting the bailouts. Not saying I'm in favor of the bill just pointing out the depths to which their politics run.

Hope they rot in hell...
Nacnud62
Posts: 15
Incept: 2018-12-19

New Mexico
Banned
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@Tickerguy.

Its your blog, and you can ban me if you want, but your response was nonsensical. CDC formerly reported influenza and pneumonia deaths as separate statistics, until about 2014-15, if memory serves. You have, justifiably, banged on Fauci, the CDC, NIH, etc regarding Plaquenil.

But then you justify using the CDC P&I mortality as ALL influenza because those are the only numbers we have. Might want to add that about 20% of flu samples that are laboratory tested actually come back positive for influenza. Shoots another hole in CDC flu mortality. You are a helluva smart guy, Karl. But youre wrong on this.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 11496
Incept: 2007-12-17

Saint Charles MO
Online
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Watch it unfold. As soon as they hand out the money to the preferred people they will declare victory and send us back to work.

What they should be doing is isolating grandma and treating those of us who get sick with HCQ and zpck.

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I think its time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that our founding fathers intended for us. Ronald Reagan 1964
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