2020-03-21 Gen 20 Not 10 @POTUS
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2020-03-21 17:23 by Karl Denninger
in Podcasts , 236 references Ignore this thread
2020-03-21 Gen 20 Not 10 @POTUS
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Greenrebellion
Posts: 592
Incept: 2009-01-03

Michigan
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Interesting read on seasonality:
https://www.umaryland.edu/news/archived-....

"In a new paper published on the open-data site SSRN, the researchers found that all cities experiencing significant outbreaks of COVID-19 have very similar winter climates with an average temperature of 41 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit, an average humidity level of 47 to 79 percent with a narrow east-west distribution along the same 30-50 N" latitude. This includes Wuhan, China, South Korea, Japan, Iran, Northern Italy, Seattle, and Northern California. It could also spell increasing trouble for the Mid-Atlantic States and -- as temperatures rise -- New England."
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yeah, I've been curious abotu that...... and by the way, it also fits in with why Japan didn't get hammered generally, but the ski area.....

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Winding it down.
Uwe
Posts: 8443
Incept: 2009-01-03
A True American Patriot!
24091
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My neighbor here in FL also owns a house in Colorado. He and his wife head out there every February to ski for however long the snow lasts. I got a message from him last Sunday:
Quote:
We're coming back to FL this week. They closed all the ski resorts. It was necessary, virus pretty bad here.

Somewhat surprisingly, they're not back here yet, so I'm not sure exactly what he meant by "pretty bad here". Colorado claims 363 "confirmed" cases, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are a whole lot more that aren't confirmed or even reported.

I will be avoiding contact with them when they do get back. smiley

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"I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do." -- Robert Heinlein
Emg
Posts: 520
Incept: 2012-11-20

Canada
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Interesting. There was a news article a couple of weeks ago claiming that the virus spread the best around 9C.
Tphedlund
Posts: 11
Incept: 2017-01-27

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I have a theory on why Governor Pritzker of Illinois has implemented the extreme measure of shutting down the entire state through a shelter in place order through at least April 7, even though Illinois is not a particularly bad hotspot for cases. At last count there are 750 cases in Illinois out of 22,000 for the whole country. So Illinois has a lower per capita infection rate than the entire country.

Illinois has been on the verge of financial ruin for years and the next recession would put them there. In that event, they would die a slow death and a federal bailout would be unlikely. Pritzker's actions of shutting the state down for 3 weeks virtually guarantees that the state will go into default by the summer. Trump and the feds are throwing trillions of $ around and will backstop/bailout any and everyone affected by this virus, especially in an election year. Pritzker knows the feds will bailout Illinois when they go into default and the default can be blamed on the virus, which has been declared a national emergency. I thought Pritzker was just a dumb libtard fat f**k, but he may be smarter than your average fat f**k. He is playing this game perfectly.

Pominoz
Posts: 118
Incept: 2008-02-05

australia
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That 1per cent news out of Iceland is great news. Does anyone know if they have been locking down areas like Reykavik at all which might affect the speed of spread.
Marc2mrkt
Posts: 852
Incept: 2008-04-12

Taipei
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235 peeps in TW now that have it. 18 added yesterday. Subways here are full during rush hours, semi-full other times. People are worried, but living life almost normally. Weather is getting warmer, in a month it will be baking hot again until around October, sometimes later.

https://taipeitimes.com/News/front/archi....
Jfms99
Posts: 383
Incept: 2009-10-06

Maumelle, Ar
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Breaking news, VP Pence and his wife test negative for the virus. Interesting.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Pominoz - They're very aggressively tracing contacts and placing quarantine orders on anyone positive. I assume that includes their household (otherwise it's worthless, obviously.)

The thing is that the prevalence in a random sampling is extremely interesting as it says a hell of a lot about the rate of silent infections. These were all detected by surveillance, not symptoms. The more of this I see the more convinced I get that this thing has a crazy high (from a virus perspective) silent attack rate, which explains why we didn't go bat**** immediately in October and November.

You couldn't get most virologists and such to believe that sort of thing was possible. However, anyone who didn't believe it after Diamond Princess ought to have their Doctorate lit on fire in a cauldron of gasoline and then be thrown in on top of it -- you cannot argue with the numbers, and I don't give a **** what your doctorate thesis was on or where you went to school.

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Winding it down.
Pominoz
Posts: 118
Incept: 2008-02-05

australia
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@Tickerguy-after listening to the podcast i went searching for news items about Icelandic Coronavirus and the news report actually stated that the one percent random survey was good news because it was only one percent whereas you realise its good for the totally opposite point of view in that it has already reached one per cent and is nearing the end. There was one note of caution in this in that decode genetics stated that human nature means that you may be more likely to want to be tested (this is voluntary) is you think you may have contacted someone. Thanks again for your work.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Well @Pominoz -- But from what I understand is that Iceland randomly sampled people. That is, they didn't ask for people to volunteer. You're right in that a volunteer system would skew the sample due to human nature, but I bet not in this case.

The thing about that 1% number is, obviously, it puts a floor on the immunity level and thus also puts a floor on the generation number. This is extraordinarily useful. What would be utterly INSANE would be to run an antibody test on the same people.

There's something that I've been rolling around in my head on but without data it is really only a curiosity and not even worth expounding on. But if I get some of that data.... well then all that will change, just as it did once we started to get more on time series and such and were able to work some of that backward.

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Winding it down.
Cookietough
Posts: 14
Incept: 2018-12-29

JBLM
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Looks like CDC has known since at least 2005 that chloroquine is effective against coronaviruses.

http://dad29.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-re....
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Cookietough -- I've mentioned that several times already, and yep.

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Winding it down.
M1919a2
Posts: 201
Incept: 2015-07-18

Washington
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@Ticker Guy
Now, how about the damage done to the economy, the global slave economy or is back to snuzz time for all?
Bkmiller
Posts: 283
Incept: 2008-08-30

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@ KD,

Thanks for your commentary on Iceland. Visited there for the first time ever in the 2nd week of Jan, and have been watching developments there closely. Kinda feels like my newly adopted country... would love to move there, but with the euro-regs, there's no realistic way to become a citizen. :(

Anyway, those folks are crazy-sanitary, the bartenders wash their hands thoroughly before making *each* drink at the bars! Hot (and cold) water is not an issue with the geothermal and glacier resources they have! They actually watch you shower your nasty-bits before going into the community hot spas. That's weird to say the least...

Those folks are crazy-food-safety, as well as generally intensely hygene focused. I think your commentary is spot-on, from what I saw first hand "on the ground".

Funny thing, there were lots of Orientals there, all wearing masks. Lots of caughing and hacking on the plane ride back, too. Wife and I had some mild respiratory crud the next couple weeks after reutrning. Wondering if we got the C-virus, and passed it off. It was odd symptoms, just as you related from your experience. We are in our 60's, and pretty much bugging in at this point.

JMTCW and commentary, and thank you for your ongoing diligent analysis. Spot on, IMO.

-bkmiller
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Oh the dislocation this has created isn't going to disappear in a day or a week. THAT you can bet on.

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Winding it down.
Spearchucker
Posts: 14
Incept: 2009-03-02

Seattle
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Anyone else finding it impossible to view the video? Obviously it is working for some of you. I've been trying all day and just get an error message telling me to try again later.
Blackswan
Posts: 6166
Incept: 2007-11-06

Philly - FEMA region 3
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Thanks for your hard work and sharing this analysis. I read conflicting analysis on the role of temperature in the spread of the virus. Data points in Malaysia and Spain are noted as examples that warmer temperatures are not slowing it down. Perhaps it is due to more recent tracking and testing? Other factors?
Orangemanbadeh
Posts: 842
Incept: 2019-04-22

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What I don't get is why Italy is having 700 and 800 new deaths a day, they should have been exposed early due to all the travel with mainland China. They should be further in than we are.

If they are several generations ahead then wouldn't that mean when we catch up those same sorts of fatalities when we catch up?
Pominoz
Posts: 118
Incept: 2008-02-05

australia
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While deCode say it is voluntary they do intend to test all of Iceland. They are still running at 1 per cent(No symptoms-general population) the last count compared to the hospital which is running at 13% (mostly symptomatic/connected).
Orangemanbadeh
Posts: 842
Incept: 2019-04-22

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Also Philippines, South Korea and Japan just reported new cases. Something doesn't make sense here.
M1919a2
Posts: 201
Incept: 2015-07-18

Washington
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I'm curious, does anyone have a sense of how Joe and Jill 6-pact view this? any justifiable ire about the destruction of their existence out there? how wide and deep it may be? or just docile herd waiting to be served up on the patrons table!
Asimov
Posts: 114841
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
Online
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m1919: They're scared.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@M1919a2 -- Most of them are scared ****less. Just go to the grocery store and pay attention. But I'm not sure if they're scared of the virus or scared of being shot by some government goon.

@Orangemanbadeh
Quote:
What I don't get is why Italy is having 700 and 800 new deaths a day, they should have been exposed early due to all the travel with mainland China. They should be further in than we are.

If they are several generations ahead then wouldn't that mean when we catch up those same sorts of fatalities when we catch up?

No. Their fatality rate is insanely high but it's nearly ALL people who have SERIOUS co-morbidities. Only 0.5% (!!!!) of their deaths are in people with none of those.

So their "base rate" is ~8.5%.

If there are 10,000 people who get it CONFIRMED (they're only testing people who are symptomatic, as are we) then ~850 are dying. AWFUL.

But... only FOUR people out of 10,000 are "normies."

That's 0.04% risk if you're not fat, have cardiac problems, diabetic, have heart disease or high blood pressure.

Am I scared of an 0.04% risk? No. Is it higher than ordinary flu? Yes. Is it ridiculously so to the point that I'm going to stop doing everything in my life in fear that I'm going to get the WuhanPlauge and die? No.

There's a handful of "normies" that are dead. Everyone else was sick as hell to start with and if you blew them over with a feather that might drop dead. Which leads to the other question -- dying while positive is not dying of the disease. I've yet to find a stat on the Italian deaths that counts those who died of atypical pneumonia, which would be the expected cause of death IF the virus was the actual cause, and not an infection at the time of death.

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Winding it down.
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