2020-03-20 By The Numbers (Podcast)
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Greenrebellion
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I know you weren't committing to anything in the podcast as there isn't enough data, but there seem to be a lot of issues with the theory that we are much farther along the exponential curve.

1. Wuhan got hit hard, other areas in China flattened out way before they hit Wuhan levels. Wuhan would have much higher immunity then other areas and yet new cases are virtually zero everywhere in China.

2. South korea and Italy have similar populations, yet Italy is still going crazy exponential despite having 5x as many cases.

3. Diamond princess, even with a significant false negative rate, does not at all support a huge number of asympomatic cases.


Binomial R0 dramatically impacted by unknown variables seems much more reasonable at least to me at this stage.
Cerich
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new cases are virtually zero according to the chinese gov, talk to some Chinese about that.

Just saying, and as Karl knows, I have lots of contacts there
Cerich
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to your third point, the crew, in particular the food services were the super spreaders... because not sick and working.

The passengers were older and I bet the vast majority had underlying conditions, very few skinny and fit folks on a Princess cruise (or really any)
Whossane
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The death rate in Italy and even here in the US would seem to indicate that we are just beginning a parabolic spike in the disease. On the other hand, that is also the same sort of pattern one would expect to see in a new, highly contagious virus that has a very low rate of death as it nears the immune population limit.





Ktrosper
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Thank you.

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
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Tickerguy
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@Whossane -- Yep. And without an actual survey of the population to know where the immunity level is in the population we have no fucking clue which it is.

But..... how is it that Japan AND South Korea didn't have their case rate continue to EXPLODE?

Where is it?

Ever been to Tokyo? During Rush Hour in the subway stations? I have.

Yet they've locked down NOTHING.

Nothing.

Bloomberg has noted this.
So have I.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/....

If you have a model and find an example where it does not fit your assumptions YOU ARE THE ONE WHO IS WRONG -- not the math.

Your job then becomes figuring out why you are wrong, not continuing to scream and holler.

Math is not political. Neither are viruses. They do indeed follow mathematical models and distributions, PROVIDED you have an accurate (1) immunity percentage and (2) R0. If either is wrong then so is your result.

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Jc3
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Already waiting for an antibody test.
There will be a difference between South Korea and USA due to the difference in "preexisting conditions".
Tickerguy
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True Jc3 in outcomes, but not in case rates.

Now explain Japan, where the R0 has dropped to insignificance. WHY?

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Naomi_cas
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Yes we really need this antibody test. it exists, it is just not FDA approved yet I think (please correct if wrong)

Let us say that the virus was already rampant in the US in December, then why are we seeing death cases only now? .... or is the question why are we NOTICING death cases now?
Perhaps simply because it was been the flu season. Not sure about the US, but the french medical system was nearly overwhelmed with a way above average flu epidemic. Were they testing all their patients for flu stains? easy answer, NO (and from far)

We started noticing and looking for this virus because of Wuhan which was indeed possibly seeing the peak of their epidemic in December-January.

So, if we have samples we can go back and look at death cases from December for Corona RNA.

BTW considering when we closed the flights in from China, and when the first deaths were published in Wuhan, considering that you can date the start of the epidemic at the latest to 20 days before the very first known cases it would be surprising that we did not get a lot on incoming carriers back in December or even earlier. How many? at the minimum take the number of the very first deaths in Wuhan, multiply that by 100 (assuming CFR 1%) and that is minimum the number of cases you had 20 days before these deaths occurred. When were the first deaths in Wuhan, can we extrapolate from the death cases curve??

I won't even bother with plots and any exact math since all the numbers are kind of "intuitive", and we need evidence: antibodies across the present population and Corona RNA in death cases back last fall.

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Naomi_cas
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greenrebellion:

South Korea and Italy could not be more different in their cases population:
https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/co....

Italy is dealing with a peaking epidemic among older people.

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Tickerguy
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@Naomi_cas - Yep -- we need a random sample of the population for antibodies.

Next, if that does NOT show material immunity (enough to be near suppression) then the other possibility is that R0 is a polynomial and the larger term is highly environmentally-sensitive -- and either has or will shift.

Again, people point to SK as "oh well they were really aggressive due to previous SARS experience."

Well then nobody who doesn't go at things like that should be able to replicate it.

Except Japan did.

Which means that's not the answer.

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Twainfan2
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@Naomi. Back in Dec/Jan they had no reason to test for Covid. I would bet a number of the flu deaths were likely covid cases. Id also bet that once an antibody test is avialable we will see people who had this virus long before it was officially here...although you wont be able to prove it because you could have gotten it recently but had no symptoms. How they prove when you had it is beyond me.
Tickerguy
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@Twainfan2 - Doesn't matter; all that matters is the prevalence of antibodies in the general population.

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Greenrebellion
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It really is fascinating, I expect we will learn A LOT over the next couple of weeks as to the true nature of this virus.
Asimov
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What if it's spreading here more by fecal->oral because there's a lot more nasty people around than we'd like to think.

That *MIGHT* explain japan/SK.

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Naomi_cas
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KD, exactly, we don't care. But finding evidence of coronavirus in deaths from the fall would be...interesting, and testable.


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Twainfan2
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@TG I was only suggesting that such a test would show the virus was here before they officially claimed it was (as you've said yourself that you may have had it).. that's all. I don't know if they would be able to tell when a person had it to prove that it was here in Dec or early Jan as some of us believe.

So far our local moron in the governor's mansion hasn't pulled the trigger on shelter in place... altho many of us are expecting him to announce it Sunday night or Monday morning.
Naomi_cas
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lessons from 1918 that perhaps we can apply,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT6mHi_8....

with questions about NSAIDs, again.

BTW those with ICU-vent questions might as well check Medcram YT since the site is run by a pulmonary ICU specialist, and they have 5 + videos on the topic....

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Oliver1655
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Karl

Thank you for your diligence in reporting on this. You have been on this from the very beginning bringing sound reasoning and facts to the subject at hand.

I found this one to be well thought out and solidly based on the math which can never lie.

I look forward to hopefully finally being able to hear the "numbers" on the possibility that there has already been widespread infection and herd immunity built.

It's also good to see that your pursuit of the hydroxy chloroquine is getting out into the rest of the media.


Whossane
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@Tickerguy

How do you account for the "cluster" deaths that have occurred? That would seem to indicate a lot higher fatality rate.

Age and co-morbidity are factors but there should have been more than one Kirkland, right?



Jesjohn94
Posts: 724
Incept: 2019-05-07

Atlanta
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We have lots of people modeling medical outcomes based on various ideas. I dont really have a problem with that. I would like more on gender, age, race and existing conditions. How many of these deaths are caused by COVID19 or they died and also had the virus?

What we desperately need to start getting is economic models on what the containment strategies are going to do to our economic future. Any stimulus money is still going to be there to theoretically pay off. People are happy about not having to pay their bills but that is someone elses money. Weve set off a cascade of events that are going to cause unimaginable damage to the economy. State and federal budgets will be destroyed. Insurance companies are going to be destroyed. All property prices will crash as that is just reality when a lot of people go broke.

Arent politicians supposed to weigh the medical vs economic cost? If people understand the economic impact everything will change. People just assume the economic impact doesnt matter but that is nonsense.
Naomi_cas
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OK so first death reported in Wuhan January 9. So assume infected 20 days earlier=Dec. 20, so with 1% CFR we have 100 cases on Dec 20. Now assume 5 days doubling time...we reach 32 millions infected by March 5...Wuhan pop is around 60 millions....ball park...

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Pandemicsamurai
Posts: 71
Incept: 2020-03-17

Atlanta
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From a somewhat reliable source in Georgia, state about to call in national guard and declare martial law (14 day stay home/quarantine order) ...

I think I've put the puzzle together. Well played MIC ... we're going to war with China ...

Only thing that makes sense with the known information and facts on virus with these bullshit lockdowns... prepare the populace for Red Dawn.

Wolverines!

(If this order doesn't come through, my source is crap but he works for GBI ... )

Orionrising
Posts: 145
Incept: 2017-01-26

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It does not make sense though that herd immunity would be reached over large areas without having detectable infections there. If its spread far enough around for that you should have had a statistically similar appearance of symptomatic patients across its entire range of infected locations, not localized outbreaks.

It would have to be something weird. In a herd immunity situation, things like the Seattle nursing home should already have had cases pass through, not a sudden mass spike of deaths. Could be something connected to Ibuprofen, I have seen some claims that dosing with it brought on visible worsening of symptoms until a dose wore off.
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