No, GDP Did Not Advance 2.1%
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives

Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2020-01-30 10:35 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government , 165 references Ignore this thread
No, GDP Did Not Advance 2.1%
[Comments enabled]

How stupid are you America?

Answer: Very.

The data says annualized GDP was up 4%.

Ok.

But from 12/31/2018 to 12/31/2019 federal fiscal expansion was $1.227 trillion.

That is 5.87% and that is actual inflation.  That's right -- The Fed is not only lying they are knowingly and intentionally participating in a nearly 6% inflation rate right here and now, and you're taking it up the ass.

This is simple mathematics -- every dollar of deficit spending, that is, additional debt, goes directly and immediately into GDP.

You must therefore back out the growth of said debt from GDP, that is, monetary inflation, to get the actual GDP expansion rate.  4% - 5.87% is negative 1.87%, which is the definition of a recession -- that is, negative "growth."

Of course there are exactly zero people who will point this out.  Why?  Because if you do point it out then you're a "Debbie Downer" and, by the way, not only will you never be invited back to CNBS or other "business channels" you might spook a market sell-off if any percentage of the investing "public" was to recognize that they're being screwed, blued and tattooed by these policies.

So you won't hear that.  Ever.

But it is nonetheless true.

The US Economy contracted over the last 12 months by approximately 2%.

That's an irrefutable mathematical fact.

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 



 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info No, GDP Did Not Advance 2.1% in forum [Market-Ticker]
Drifter
Posts: 465
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I see the chicomms are horning in on the Fed's racket-- a million dollars in fake $1 bills was seized at the border.

Time to embargo that f'n country.
Aztrader
Posts: 8513
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The futures were down big this morning and the market held up until about 20 minutes ago. The fed has to be directly funneling cash directly to buy the indexes. More fake earnings out this morning and god forbid that you don't surprise to the upside. This casino is so rigged that even the riggers can't control it.....
Jal
Posts: 856
Incept: 2009-03-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"The US Economy contracted over the last 12 months by approximately 2%."

That explains why some people are getting poorer and can't figure out what they are doing wrong.
garbage in garbage out
Tickerguy
Posts: 161610
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Jal - Yep.

Trump's "miracle" is no such thing. He's literally robbing everyone who isn't in the top 0.5% (which is where you have enough assets in the "market" to outrun the damage); everyone else is getting ****ed up the ass.

Try buying a new truck for work purposes. Allegedly new vehicles are ~150% of the price they were in 1982-84. Uh huh. You should be able to buy a base-model 1/2 ton pickup (you know, a work truck) for about $15k. You can't find one for less than double that, pretty-much.

Then look at college costs.

It's all lies.

----------
Winding it down.
Redjack
Posts: 248
Incept: 2018-01-29

Iowa
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
TG.

Fleet F150's (work trucks) base model is around $25-$30K.

Estimated from when I was looking a few months ago. Now, most work trucks are F250's, so that is another $10K.

Manufacturing had a recession factored in BEFORE China got sick. Layoffs in process. Same with Trucking.

We were joking that if things are good, why is Big Green Tractors and Minnesota Tape laying off people left and right. Not to mention other local major makers of big ticket items.

And a local school district is being forced to pay back $3 million of the $9 million they over spent. So layoffs at .edu.

Glass is down, plastic is down, ethanol is dead, and oil is on life support.

Best economy ever!/sarcasm
Drifter
Posts: 465
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Trucks-- I need at least a 3/4 ton, and prefer diesel. For ****s and giggles priced out a Dodge Cummins, new. $93k. $93 ****ing thousand dollars. Can't find a 2008 model for less than $30.

So, am living with my 1999. I replaced the U joints and center bearing last weekend. Front U joints and hub bearings will get replaced this weekend. Rear bearings after that.

Never thought I'd still be doing all my own mechanical work at this stage of life, but here I am. For all you home mechanics: South Main Auto channel on youtube is fantastic.
Tickerguy
Posts: 161610
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Redjack - Yep.

I'd be in the market for a new 1/2 ton base-level pickup, but not at $30 large. At 15 large, yes. Which is what they should cost. Well, they don't, so I ain't buying. The chassis on my existing 1/2 ton SUV is fine and I can re-engine and re-transmission it multiple times for far less than buying a new one, plus replace the entire interior if I wanted to.

So **** them.

----------
Winding it down.
Smacktle
Posts: 2031
Incept: 2009-01-20

Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Cheaper to keep both vehicles. It's become a game now to see how long my 2004 G35 will last. 168,000 and counting. Only had to change the starter, radiator and a few batteries so far.

The best kind of vehicle is one without payments!

My son bought a 1990 Ford Mustang Foxbody and I've rekindled my love for working on cars. You can fix anything now. All you have to do is watch a youtube video lol.

----------
The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Snooze
Posts: 3124
Incept: 2007-07-09

florida
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I just re-engined a 7.3 F-350 dually for about $8K all in. No way I'm paying
$55K+ for a new one. It's ridiculous and the newer ones don't offer any real improvements over the older ones.
Sharps
Posts: 78
Incept: 2008-12-15

SW Montana
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This is why I still run & maintain my 1986 F150. Relatively easy to wrench on and no payments. The cost of new is a fright.
Budget-racer
Posts: 69
Incept: 2016-03-14

Virginia
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@drifter. In case you didn't already know, use a 1/2 extension and socket (9/16" 12 point) jammed against the frame with the unit bearing bolts partially threaded in and turn the wheel with the truck running. The power steering will help you push the assembly off. Unless you are one of the lucky ones with no rust. Wire the shafts up in place to keep from damaging the inner axle seals during this process.
Asimov
Posts: 113552
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
You can fix anything now. All you have to do is watch a youtube video


This.

This is one of the miracles of the modern world. Not just about fixing **** either, learning *ANYTHING*

It's amazing.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Spaceace
Posts: 33
Incept: 2019-05-09

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Not to mention all the crazy electronics that are being put into the new vehicles. When those go south after a few years, I can only imagine the costs to get that fixed. I have an 05' Explorer that will probably outlast my newer Rav. The Ford needs brakes and a good looking over, but given car costs, keeping that baby running is worth it.
Bodhi
Posts: 1704
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
You can fix anything now. All you have to do is watch a youtube video


I echo Asimov's comments. I can't tell you how many times I've fixed my car or a household appliance thanks to a YouTube video for a fraction of what it would have cost to hire it out. I might make my 20 y.o. Toyota Sienna last another 20 years to avoid buying a newer computerized tracking vehicle.
Gable
Posts: 964
Incept: 2009-07-04

Retired in NC Mountains
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
All the comments on keeping an older truck running and the wonders of YouTube repair videos are spot on.
I have a 1996 Ford 150 I plan on keeping running for decades to come. I did the math and it is far cheaper to replace engine/transmission and anything else than buy a new one. I am not sure if the "Cash for Clunkers" or others have figured it out as well that has caused a shortage of old trucks.
About once a month as I am getting out or in mine in parking lots, someone will approach me and ask if I want to sell my truck. Even the local dealership sent me a letter asking if I wanted to sell my truck.
As for YouTube repair videos...I have a Bobcat track hoe that developed a leak in one of the main arm lift cylinders. Onsite repair by a technician would have costs hundreds of dollars if not over a thousand. A YouTube video and a $45 seal kit did the trick.

----------
In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or respected its citizens' rights more as it grew in size. E.L. 2016
Asimov
Posts: 113552
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Even the local dealership sent me a letter asking if I wanted to sell my truck.


That's a method of advertising they use now. They're trying to get you to trade it in on a new one.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Aquapura
Posts: 975
Incept: 2012-04-19

South of Canada
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Don't you all know it doesn't matter what the price of a vehicle is, it's the monthly payment?? Every, and I mean every, time I've darkened the doorstep of a dealer the sales hacks have always said something like "I can get you in this for under $500/month. When my wife needed a new (used) vehicle the dealer said we were the first all cash purchase that month - and it was mid-month.

Honestly, things look ok right now in the economy from where I'm sitting. It's all leverage, but there are new cars in driveways, lots of new construction going on, restaurants are full on Friday nights, etc. Sure there is shuttered retail, but that's all Amazon and I see smiling boxes on everyone's doorstep. The super bowl is this weekend. Time for a new tee-vee!!

When the bill comes due people are going to be hurtin' bad.
Bodhi
Posts: 1704
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Aquapura wrote..
Every, and I mean every, time I've darkened the doorstep of a dealer the sales hacks have always said something like "I can get you in this for under $500/month.


You reminded me of one of my most contentious encounters with a car salesman. We were looking for a new car for the wife and found one she liked. When I suggested a lower selling price the salesman went to talk to his manager. When he returned he said, "I can get the monthly payments down to $xyz/month." When I asked what the selling price was he said it was still the same. I told him this wasn't acceptable. He went to talk to his manager again and he then said he got the payment down another $20/month. Same song and dance, the selling price was still the same. When I again declined his offer he was obviously frustrated and exclaimed, "What do we have to do to make a deal?" I stood up, got right in his face and calmly, but loudly said, "Lower the ****ing price." My son was 9 at the time and he barely contained himself from hitting the floor laughing. At that point my wife stood up and curtly said, "We're leaving." We ended up buying the same car at another dealer that was more willing to negotiate.
Lenguado
Posts: 2930
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
WHHHhhhhhaaaaa????????

You mean that Maria Blow-a-ro-me, Charles Pains-me, and Stuart Varnished-untruth-y are blowing RADIOACTIVE SUNSHINE UP MY KILT?!?!?!?!?!

Say it isn't so.....

Shocked I say.
smiley
'I'm shocked, shocked to find that lying is going on in here!'


----------
"War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself." --Unknown

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." - President John F. Kennedy
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ