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2020-01-14 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Technology , 186 references Ignore this thread
Jail All The Fraudsters
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Remember that we were told that you'd have fully autonomous driving by 2020?

Tesla was going to be first, but not the only offering for long.

Well, it's 2020.

Where is it?

It turns out that, well, Musk lied.  Like every good carnival barker he also ran the pricing scam to a "T"; buy it now or you will pay more later, a ludicrous statement for software that has never, ever been true in the history of computerized anything.

Now could he get away with that if there was no competition?  Sure.  But there will be competition.

As Tesla's stock flies over $500 a share exactly nobody is holding anyone accountable for that bull****.  Just like nobody is holding Trump accountable for his claim that by the end of his first term the deficit would be zero; it has instead skyrocketed.

Calling something "full self-driving" ought to be good for an instant cement shoe sentence if in fact you cannot punch in a destination, get in the back seat with a bottle of Rum and arrive smashed out of your mind -- without breaking any laws.  Since the car by definition doesn't require you, it also doesn't require you be sober.  Oh, by the way, it also has no liability premium on your insurance either, because you can never be personally (and thus legally) responsible for a crash.

Marketing pablum is nothing new; it dates to well, the beginning of marketing.

But specific claims for which you charge money are a different matter.  You've collected money under a false pretense.

We all know what that word is.....

PS: I'll bet I won't be able to buy an actual full self-driving car within the next 10 years.  But since Tesla said "by 2020" placing a bet on it is a loser for anyone who does it, since the bet has already been lost.

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Amgrace
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New Castle, PA 16101
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I just finished reading a book - The Chicken**** Club - written by Jesse Eisinger. It explains what has happened with the Department of Justice and the way that corporate prosecutions are managed. The DOJ has not even ATTEMPTED to prosecute INDIVIDUAL executives (at large, influential firms) for a long time. The book describes the revolving door between the DOJ and the biggest law firms in the land, from the days when they DID prosecute executives (Enron and Arthur Anderson) to the present.

Clearly written, not a long read, and highly recommended. The country we live in is not a democratic republic. I'm not sure how to describe what we are.


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American politics as a system has ceased to function, because the system has gone from representing people to representing money. And that is something that can only go well as long as the people have at least some of that money. - Automatic Earth 3/17/2010
Click
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"I'll bet I won't be able to buy an actual full self-driving car within the next 10 years."

I bet that sometime within the next ten years - if you even ride at all, if you're not killed off in coming civil war, if your city isn't a burning ****ing ghetto by then, if you can even feed yourself - that one horsepower "cars" will be more common than anything currently on the road...

By 2030 Tesla is going to be bankrupt - just like America. And I'm sure glad that I know how to ride a horse and take a scalp...

Inline
Aztrader
Posts: 8493
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Scottsdale, AZ
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Have you noticed all the fake financial news being released daily either by the companies themselves, the analysts or the financial media? Today JPM beat handily and yet if you look at where they beat, it was a pure Fed gift of free money. They didn't earn it banking, but trading.
I see a new upgrade on Tesla or Apple almost every week and yet, where are the earnings growth. Apple is in the Dow and has helped it rocket straight up. Tesla is heavily shorted and being squeezed to death right now.
This entire market makes 1999 look like a cake walk because in today's terms, lying, fraud, fake accounting, and fake news are perfectly fine, while in 1999 it was pure speculation and stupid analysts that drove that market.
We are seeing a fine line of specific stocks making this market look bullish all manipulated by lies, fraud and Fed money. Most of this country is being conned into believing that we have this unbelievable economy, when in fact the only thing going up is the market.
The Fed is hiding a lot of bad leverage and at the same time probably illegally buying bad debt. They keep the RA RA going, but how it ends won't be pretty.
Ihsmta
Posts: 605
Incept: 2008-04-10

Midwest, USA
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In the end, we are no more than what P.T. Barnum claimed.

Interesting. If I'm in the back seat and the car is driving itself, liability coverage should be provided by the manufacturer. Lawyers may end up having more to do with the introduction of self driving cars than engineers do.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality." Ayn Rand
Whitehat
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Gone West
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was going to post this in The Bar's "Tesla Death Watch Thread."

first 2:15 compliments your article.




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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; G-d is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
Radiosity
Posts: 347
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Sunny UK
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"It turns out that, well, Musk lied."

As Paul Joseph Watson might say: Imagine my shock.
Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
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A True American Patriot!
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@Amgrace -
Quote:
Clearly written, not a long read, and highly recommended. The country we live in is not a democratic republic. I'm not sure how to describe what we are.

One bad event away from a civil war.

@Ihsmta -
Quote:
Interesting. If I'm in the back seat and the car is driving itself, liability coverage should be provided by the manufacturer. Lawyers may end up having more to do with the introduction of self driving cars than engineers do.

Yep. I've pointed this out since the beginning of this so-called "debate" on self-driving vehicles.

Your "car insurance" bill will be nothing more than comprehensive coverage; theft, hailstorms and the like. And theft will be nearly impossible, since the vehicle, being autonomous, can lock the passenger inside (or not) and drive back to your home, office or a cop shop on command, so if someone steals it the only realistic thing they could do is load it on a flat-bed or into a trailer that prevents it from moving and then chop it up. That sort of theft will happen (chop shops aren't going away) but the "steal it and drive it to the chop shop" will not happen at all, because otherwise the car will know where it went and will lead the cops right to the chop shop!

If there's an accident and it's AV-on-AV then the two manufacturers get to duke it out on the lawyer side. If it's AV-on-Conventional same deal, but the manufacturer gets to duke it out with the human driver. The AV is going to have multiple cameras and sensors running, so who hit who and who's at fault is going to be trivially easy to determine.

But nobody in their right mind will buy a 'car insurance' policy (nor will any state be able to require it) that puts LIABILITY on the driver with an AV. Nope, nope and nope. How this winds up impacting the price of AVs I don't know and for people like Musk who claim that their "autopilot" is far superior to a human driver, well, actuaries are pretty good at figuring out whether he's a carnival barker or not.

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Winding it down.
Asimov
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East Tennessee
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If the collapse is already certain, maybe we're the fools for not getting our little slice of the pie too.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
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Oh I dunno Asimov. I think where you are, and where I'm going, will be somewhat all right. Maybe not "ok" but at least not "city on fire" sort of ****.

But yeah, we're kinda ****ed.

The thing is, if it really does go feral there won't be anything to hunt where you or I will be. Same thing happened during the Depression and there were a LOT fewer people around. My late Aunt Marg was in her mid 20s and 30s during it, and she at the time was living in an area that you'd think would be full of game. Well, it was, right up until the Depression started, and then every single edible animal was shot and eaten almost immediately. She told me of trying to get something containing meat during that time which consisted, most of the time, of someone in the household taking a .22 and *one* cartridge; if you got lucky you might get a rabbit or squirrel. Maybe.

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Winding it down.

Flappingeagle
Posts: 3407
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Quote:
I'll bet I won't be able to buy an actual full self-driving car within the next 10 years.

I agree. Self-driving at this point needs to be filed along with "fusion power is just 20 years away" from the 90's, and 80's, and 70's, and ...

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Asimov
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East Tennessee
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Quote:
But nobody in their right mind will buy a 'car insurance' policy (nor will any state be able to require it) that puts LIABILITY on the driver with an AV.


You have more faith in human nature than I do. That's EXACTLY what I think is going to happen. The car companies won't even be held liable when they keep killing people with the same "mistake."

It would cost too many jobs when they get sued into oblivion.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Asimov
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East Tennessee
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Oh yea, I'm reasonably happy with location. I still have too many neighbors, but at least they're, for the most part, good people.

I'm way too close to a major traffic corridor though, at least for my comfort.

So I take it you've found a place? Anything you'd be willing to share about it?

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
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@Asimov -- Nice place, more suburban than rural, too close to a major artery to really be defensible but if **** like that starts I have a pretty decent indication that everyone in the immediate area will be shooting in the same direction rather than each other. Of course there are no promises and it only takes a couple of tweakers for things to get really messy, plus I doubt tweaker is any good to eat.

It's Step 1; once I get settled there then the scouting for Step 2 starts, which is the bug-out.

The problem with truly rural "middle of nowhere" is that if TSHTF and you are indeed prepared and more-or-less ok you're going to stick out like a sore thumb. Think about just some basic stuff -- electrical grid is down, for example. Turn a light on or start a generator at 0200 and everyone within miles will know you're there and that you did it. I've been out in the middle of BF nowhere enough times that I'm fully aware that the security measures to prevent that are serious and difficult, and if a mob of 20 or 50 come after your location you and your family is likely to be food. That's a bet you'll lose often enough that I'm not sure if it gets that bad I'll wait for them to come to me.

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Winding it down.
Aquapura
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South of Canada
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Musk is a piker. When I watched Back to the Future in 1985 they promised flying cars by now.

Asimov
Posts: 113028
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East Tennessee
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If it gets to that point...

Hell, I really don't know. I honestly don't have a plan for a situation where mobs are going after people in the middle of nowhere for food. I'm reasonably good for a while, longer than most people, but I'm not sure that I wouldn't just be part of the mob by then by that point.

As far as the hunting thing goes: Yea, it could be pretty bad and it wouldn't be the first time.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
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Yep @Asimov. In a true grid-down situation it's going to be very bad no matter how you slice it. The way I see it is that for a few days to a couple of weeks, if you're NOT in a major city the crazies will probably not come your way simply because it takes some coordination and thought -- and if any "diversity" shows up in places where it's not expected IFF is very easy and there won't be any cops to do anything about it. "Diversity" will loot and burn their own areas first. They always have and it's really simply about how mobs behave -- there is no thinking going on at all.

But beyond that it gets dicey very fast. I have exactly zero "Rambo" sort of fantasies in that sort of situation. How much fuel do you have and how far/long will it last? The "well, i have a wood stove" folks are funny; those things are trivially detectable from a VERY long way away when being used with any sort of ability to either see or smell. If you're the lone building with an obvious source of heat going and it's 10F outside, well....

Anything with a footprint you can detect from more than a trivial distance is trouble. I can make a rocket stove in the backcountry easily and it'll keep me warm and give me a way to cook whatever I managed to kill, and it's not detectable (if I'm careful) from more than a few hundred feet distant, assuming whoever is looking doesn't have working tech (e.g. IR goggles.) If he DOES have said tech and a rifle I'll never see the dude who shoots and eats me.

If things go to **** at that level my expectation is that I'm going to die, but I'll be damned if I'm going to sit in a house with my presence being trivially detected by anyone within a couple of miles. If that's the only occupied building in the area you're going to get overrun and be killed and eaten. Better not to be there when the mob shows up.

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Winding it down.

Drifter
Posts: 439
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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Living in the country in N. ID, game populations that will sustain you are down severely. If/when shtf, the only thing to eat will be coyotes and rabbits-- protein poisoning/rabbit starvation would be a serious issue.

On my property I used to have 40-50 deer, now there are just a few. Blue tongue wiped most of them out. Anyway, having spent most of my life in the woods, most places are absolute dead zones. No idea why people think the forest is like a supermarket-- it isn't.

If shtf here, then there is nowhere left to go.

Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
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@Drifter -- And remember that this is game populations with hunting seasons, game management, licenses required to shoot and eat things, etc.

If TSHTF all that goes out of the window immediately. Nobody will give a flying **** about seasons, doe-v-buck, bag limits, etc. If it has four legs and moves it will get shot and pretty quickly there will be very little out there at all.

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Winding it down.
Whitehat
Posts: 1503
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Gone West
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Tickerguy wrote..
actuaries are pretty good at figuring out whether he's a carnival barker or not

yes, they are. the issue is whether their employers and regulators apply the facts that they uncover.

right now, from insurance adjusters who have no reason to lie, it is a fact that with identical cars with the exception of driver assist features, the driver assist feature cars are having higher total claims and more total claims per driven mile. they are not being rated higher, sometimes the opposite.

you know that rule of law thing. regarding Tesla, massive recalls have occurred or are in progress for hazards that are statistically much less likely than the per unit actual incidents with Tesla cars. secondly, the actual risks such as fire warrant immediate recall upon the known design flaw which would occur, perhaps rightfully, with any other non Tesla/autopilot/electric drive automotive technology. the authorities are exempting a class of vehicle. so **** what an actuary would say. those in power already made their decisions.

on the insurance end, liability, etc. if this country still exists to any extent as it does now, the common man will continue to get the bill and liability up the poop shoot.

this is why we have to be careful that this dark fantasy of it going to **** does not go to our heads. it is very possible, but too convenient for us, sick as it sounds. the powers that be must know the same. really i think that the more likely scenario is a hard, slow grind down until people truly forget that there was more to life than living in one room, working all day and having no other aspect of life unless majorly rich.


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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; G-d is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
Jal
Posts: 826
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heheheh ".... that one horsepower "cars"..."

The shift will start by 2024.
By 2030 only the rich will be able to fuel that one horsepower "cars".

Everyone who went off grid, with bailing wire and duck tape, might not make it to 2030.
It takes at least a dozen people cooperating for a sustainable community.
Your security guard will be your hunters. Wild game will be out of reach of bow and arrows, and living in the overgrowth back country.

Sorry, I think, by 2030, most everyone here will be pushing a wheelchair,(not electric chair), and using moss in their diapers.
smiley

Rufust445
Posts: 855
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Emerald City
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Amgrace wrote..
The DOJ has not even ATTEMPTED to prosecute INDIVIDUAL executives (at large, influential firms) for a long time.

Which brings us to the question not even asked, let alone answered: Where is James McNerney, the former Boeing CEO on whose watch the 737 MAX decisions were made? Boeing still comes up in the news, and will for some time, but no mention of McNerney.

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"The stock market isn't bullish, it's bull$hit." -- Alan King
Smacktle
Posts: 2007
Incept: 2009-01-20

Texas
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I quit prepping a long time ago when I realized that if they can't get your ****, they will just burn you out or if the electricity goes out, after about 2 weeks it will get nasty. I'll be fine for a month or so but beyond that if I have to go out and find food then I'll just be competing with all the rest.

Kinda depressing to think about so I just enjoy my life as best I can while I still have my health.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Click
Posts: 769
Incept: 2017-06-26

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Touch the Clouds...

Yesterday, I was standing before this impressive statue and thinking to myself, "the artist has captured the look (especially in the eyes which are a window to the soul) of a true alpha male". Of course, many of the Indian warriors didn't look too impressive. Attitude, aggression, phycial agility, cunningness, endurance and explosive bursts of adroit violent action are just some of the attributes of a real chief. The best chief has a brain to match his brawn...

When the lights go out, we shall quickly find out who is and who isn't a chief - and who is a squaw. All except for a handful of females and the majority of effeminate men will **** their pants when asked to wear war paint.

We will also find out how quickly people will take scalps and EAT the losers. I predict that the Black Tribe will be the first, followed by the Mesoamericans who have Mayan, Aztec and Inca bloodlines.
Inline
Greenacr
Posts: 5
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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There is no doubt that in a total grid down situation that it will be bad.

What I think most are not taking into consideration is the immediate impact of what a lack of sanitation and clean water will have on most who are not prepared. Three days without water and you are dead. Drink from questionable sources and you sick and wishing you had a diaper.

If the SHTF, my goal is to get to the other side of the great die-off. Not sure there are going to be as many crazies roaming the countryside as folks think.

Instead of a SHTF situation I foresee a sharp economic recession/depression followed by a slow deterioration of life in general. Maybe we will get lucky and follow the Japan model for the next 30 years.....
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