See, I Told You So
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives

Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2020-01-11 10:09 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 247 references Ignore this thread
See, I Told You So
[Comments enabled]

So here we are.....

smiley

Iran officials acknowledged Saturday that they accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed earlier this week, killing all 176 people aboard.

Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace division, told state TV that his unit accepts “full responsibility” for shooting the down aircraft minutes after it took off Wednesday from Tehran’s international airport. He said that when he learned about the downing of the plane, “I wished I was dead.”

Of course Iran had spent a couple of days, starting immediately after the incident, blaming mechanical failure -- even though it was blatantly obviously that while such a failure can take down an aircraft the evidence was overwhelming that it had been hit with a SAM.

Iran's foreign minister, of course, claimed we caused it:

“A sad day,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted. “Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster. Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.”

Oh bull****.

Within minutes of the event it was clear from the video posted to Twitter and elsewhere that the aircraft was hit by a projectile.  Since it was over Tehran at the time, flying at low altitude (in a normal climb-out pattern) and had just departed a couple of minutes previous the odds that the US or any other nation hit it, by mistake or otherwise, was ridiculously improbable.  It was therefore clear Iran's forces had shot it down and, given that it was a civilian airliner that belonged to the Ukraine the presumption had to be that it was unintentional.

I can forgive Iran's Foreign Minister for his characterization (even though false) given the way we handle "adventurism" right here in the United States.  See, you as an ordinary civilian are responsible for every single round you discharge from your firearm until it comes to rest.  If you strike an unintended target, whether through negligence or just poor marksmanship that's on you and you will be held fully accountable.  That's how it should be -- for everyone.

But for cops of any sort that's not true.  Witness in Florida recently where cops used civilian vehicles as shields while engaged in a gun battle with a couple of robbers with the civilians in the cars.  If you or I did that we'd be sitting in prison right now facing dozens of charges.  As it is not one blue ******* involved has been indicted despite the fact that two innocent civilians were murdered.

Of course the idea that you can actually confuse a 737 with a cruise missile (or a fighter jet) is laughable. That is, if you're paying attention. Never mind the bigger question, which is quite simple: Why do you have civilian airports and flights operating in an active military zone, which Tehran was at the time since they had just fired missiles from there a couple of hours previous?  That was criminally stupid on the part of the Iranians and IMHO their "dear leader" ought to voluntarily take a self-imposed nap for it.  I recommend hungry feral hogs.

Next up Twitter is currently displaying a video from Iran's Qods forces blowing up the US Capitol and killing Trump.  Twitter's so-called "policy" on not promoting or permitting terrorist propaganda apparently does not apply to state actors with formal "security" forces that claim intent to engage in an armed assault on a foreign government's Capitol.  That, of course, would be a clear act of war.

Can I post a video of myself beheading Rouhani?  I think we should test Twitter's and other social media's so-called "rules" and see if they apply to everyone equally, or if it's perfectly ok to make videos of the US President being murdered, much as we saw when a so-called "comedian" waltzed around on stage with a (fake) version of Trump's head and that was allowed too.

Naw, there's no problem here given the market power of these firms.

Where's that damned asteroid I keep praying for.....

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 



 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info See, I Told You So in forum [Market-Ticker]
Jal
Posts: 826
Incept: 2009-03-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Iran Admits It Shot Down Ukrainian Plane (AlJ)
Iran will find and punish the individual who pushed the button.
Meanwhile, Boeings Ousted CEO Departs With $62 Million, Even Without Severance Pay (R.)
Everyone will get the same punishment. /s.
Bearcubs9497
Posts: 43
Incept: 2017-02-01

Huntsville, AL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I don't think it WAS a mistake. For starters, the RCS on a passenger jet is WAY too big to be mistaken for a cruise missile. Also, track data would likely NOT correspond to expected flight characteristics of attacking missiles/jets.

Personally, I think the Trump administration and the Iranians came to an agreement to call "incident" a mistake given the ramifications of acknowledging this as an shoot-down.
Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Iran had no motivation to do that on purpose.

----------
Winding it down.
Marketpirate
Posts: 1733
Incept: 2007-11-30

Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Tin foil hat on

Is there any chance Iran shot the plane down because they themselves wanted someone eliminated?

An escaping CIA agent or an Iranian defector maybe. I still find it hard to believe this was an "accident"

Just a thought running through my head.

Tin foil hat off.

----------
The bull**** stops when the money runs out, and not a moment before.
Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Well sure, it's possible. But the blowback and risk of doing so is very, very high.

Iran was capable of painting the US as the "bad guy" up until that point. Now they've got a bunch of other nations, including Canada, that are royally pissed off at them for firing on a civilian airliner.

There's no good way out of that bit of self-****ery and it would REALLY have to be worth it for them to have done so intentionally.

----------
Winding it down.
Drifter
Posts: 439
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
As predicted, the Left is blaming Trump for the shootdown.

Why isn't John Kerry in irons for meeting with Iranian diplomats in Paris?

I told my girl that it was lucky there were no cops involved in that TX church shooting-- it would have been a ****ing bloodbath: either they would have let everybody get shot out of cowardice or they would have gone full trigger happy and shot a bunch of parishioners.
Bearcubs9497
Posts: 43
Incept: 2017-02-01

Huntsville, AL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Karl

Maybe, maybe not. What I do know is that these air defense systems are able to distinguish potential threats from passenger jets. And, in order to take one out, an operator has to purposefully over-ride the various safe-guards in place.

Can mis-identification by an air defense system occur? Yes. Does it happen often? No. Not, at least, with the stuff I've worked on. The most likely scenario is that the operator decided to over-ride the "fail-safes" engineered into the system and blow that aircraft out of the sky.

The question should be why did the operator decide to over-ride the system.
Bagbalm
Posts: 5892
Incept: 2009-03-19

Just North of Detroit
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Third world military. Some 'officer' given the higher class job of missile-man instead of grunt with an AK because he was the nephew of some official, even though he wasn't very bright.
Mangymutt
Posts: 1271
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Although not as big as flying airplanes into buildings, shooting one down is pretty big. Taking one out with people from multiple nations but not one person from the nation you fear at the time is pretty stupid. Unless there was a target or reason on board that warranted it as a bold move and to hell with the consequences there would be NO reason for Iran to shot it down.

Until there is evidence to indicate otherwise, I am with Karl, it was some scared ****less 17 year old who was probably threatened by his superiors to protect that area With His Life. Well that has lead to the death of many civilians and the kid who shot it down probably has a bullet in his head. I believe any time you threaten someone else on their home turf they end up fighting for what is theirs and that also means their lives. Call them goat ****ers, towel heads, or whatever, but more often then not the advantage goes to the home team. Which in this case is "Team Goat ****ers".

As long as long we can use our technology to make surgical strikes we keep them on their heels, and if we can keep them on the run, but eventually we need to put boots on the ground and attempt to occupy a culture, religion and political system that has been around far longer than the Good'O United States. Well good luck with that!

As easy as it is to play arm chair warrior and say what could have/should have been done as events were unfolding, I give Orange Man a solid A for how he handled the entire event. He gave both the Iranians and Iraqis a huge punch to the head, he stepped back and let them do what they needed to do i.e. throw some wild but hapless punches, to which they could claim "See we can fight back". And in their daze and confusion connected a punch to the referee, thus ending any argument of who can claim the true victory. Granted taking out the referee was a HUGE mistake on the Iranians part, but to my knowledge Trump has not used it to goad or push them, he is just holding his hand up in victory.

As long as we can keep them on the ropes and at arms length we can do with them what we want. Once we step in close the advantage goes to the Goat ****ers.

I know there are too many people making too much money and too much politics in that region of the world to think we actually let them be a sovereign nation and for us to take our toys and go home. But we should. The longer we stay the less effective our longer reach becomes and eventually the fight will be taken to close range, which sadly will be in about 3 years.....2024ish.

Shooting down the airline was 100% idiotic and we should take this opportunity to do our victory dance and do as Karl suggests - GET THE HELL OUT!!!

But we wont! :(
Goldguy
Posts: 25
Incept: 2019-08-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Lets not forget 5 days ago Hassan Rouhani on twitter

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status....


Iran does not give a damn about their people or life in general. It is interesting not one American on board that flight, I am sure they knew WHO was on board. How long has this nation been in the dog house? It's just more of the same **** from this **** nation, we shouldn't give them a pass because it was an "accident"....they knew good and well.

We need an Asteroid....after we leave







Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Of course they knew who was on board -- all nations do, as the manifest has to be run through their customs.

----------
Winding it down.
Asimov
Posts: 113028
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Another possibility is that we're inside their control systems. It is terribly convenient that it pretty much shut down any chance that iran looks like the good guy.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Jesjohn94
Posts: 19
Incept: 2019-05-07

Atlanta
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It was obvious what happened here. It was also obvious what happened with the Malaysian airliner that was shot down. At least Iran had the decency to admit it within a few days unlike Russia. Not that I like Iran but they could have just kept on denying the obvious. Its not as if our leaders dont do the same in other areas like saying health care costs are fair. We all know that isnt true.
Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep. The guidance section of the missile on the ground, which was photographed amid the wreckage, is pretty-conclusive evidence smiley

----------
Winding it down.
Ahhz
Posts: 328
Incept: 2011-06-12

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yeah, too much evidence piling up for them to keep denying what happened. At least they were bright enough to see that, but damn they do need to up their PR game. The Iran foreign minister missed a heck of a chance to change how the incident was viewed with his statement. Had he said (bold are my changes):
Quote:
"A sad day," Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted. "Human error at time of crisis caused by US Trump's adventurism led to disaster. Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations. Trump has already been impeached and really needs to be removed from office before he can cause more trouble for the US and the rest of the world"

IMO, that would make most of the western MSM outlets and pretty much all the leftie trump derangement syndrome suffers want to touch the hem of the Iranian Leadership's garments because a) it validates what they have been screaming since the election, b) the enemy of my enemy is my friend and c) they are the religion of peace after all and wouldn't do anything bad without Trump making them. Hell, I'd even bet that the House Democrats would already had another pallet load of cash headed to Iran to soothe over the hurt and anguish the ebil Trump caused (minus the kickbacks and splits just like the last pallet of cash sent to them.)


Tickerguy
Posts: 161139
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Ahhz - Your TDS is showing.

----------
Winding it down.
Smacktle
Posts: 2007
Incept: 2009-01-20

Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Just imagine if we had shot that airliner down by accident.

----------
The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Crossthread
Posts: 6757
Incept: 2007-09-04

Wilmington, NC
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
When this whole "event" went down, I researched the Missal System that the Irian's got..

Do you know, along with Radar/Flight tracking Tech.. This Weapons system has Cameras Mounted on it & IR capability to visually ID/ verify WHAT you are shooting at?
NO WAY did some snotnosed Goat humpin kid made a *Mistake*.. Not knowing what He was shooting at.

Iran (I think) hit the Wrong aircraft..
I read a report from a (Foreign?) News agency, that there was, A PILOT flying ABOVE the doomed jet saw the "explosion & flames" following the aircraft strike..
(don't make me dig for the link.. please, just take My word, that is what I read..)..

The way these Weapon system(s) work, is they take out the Closest threat First , which woulda been the Civilian craft..
See video below on the system..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=objljEE7....

----------
Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Spazznout
Posts: 1852
Incept: 2009-04-15

Columbus, Ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This plane was shot down some 3+ hours after the initial missile barrage aimed at our base in Iraq.

My questions are this.

What time did flights resume out of Tehran airport?


How many flights took off before the one that was shot down??
How many flights took off after the shot down flight and how far behind???

If the answer to those questions is greater than 0 it would seem the plane was shot down intentionally.

I can believe a young soldier in the fog of war shooting down the first plane out of the airport after its reopen. But not subsequent flights as they would me on very similar flight patterns out of the airport. ( I can not vouch for the accuracy but I have read this was the 6th or 7th plane out of Tehran AFTER the missle strikes)

----------
"In a land without Rule of Law even a sane man who desecrates the state must be made to look crazy. "
Rubicon Jan. 9, 2011 blog post.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable."
Jesjohn94
Posts: 19
Incept: 2019-05-07

Atlanta
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Smacktle. We did shoot down a commercial plane in 1988. I dont think there was ever an apology either.
Crossthread
Posts: 6757
Incept: 2007-09-04

Wilmington, NC
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Massive Protest(s) in Iran..
And..

Strategic Sentinel
✔
@StratSentinel


The UK Ambassador to #Iran has been arrested while photographing current protests taking place in #Tehran related to #PS752 and other grievances.

----------
Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Nitrium
Posts: 63
Incept: 2010-05-21

New Zealand
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This isn't the first time (nor will it be the last) that commercial airliners are accidentally shot down over hot zones.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/world....
In 1988 the US made a (presumably) similar mistake - it wouldn't surprise me if Iran's tech is about at that level now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_F....
Cvdoc
Posts: 454
Incept: 2009-06-11

Washington, DC
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Wouldnt surprise me if we remotely turned off the airplanes transponder but most likely it was a screw up by Iranian

UK ambassador was MI6. Google his prior work.

----------
Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master.
Sallust
Drifter
Posts: 439
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@jes-- a friend of mine worked at the Agency at the time. He said, about that airliner, that all the victims were corpses-- died before the shootdown.

I have no reason to doubt him.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last