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2019-08-04 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 732 references Ignore this thread
On El Paso
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Jesus.

An armed man, wearing hearing protection, apparently walked into a WalMart and started shooting. The number of dead is unknown; there are reports of anywhere up to 18 dead and many more wounded, or 1 dead and 18 total shot.  As with all incidents of this sort so-called "eyewitness" reports tend to be unreliable.

There was a heavy police and other federal presence in the area, perhaps because Antifa claimed to be massing there for some sort of "event." Odds are there's no connection, but you never know.  However, it does certainly appear to have enhanced the speed of the cops' response.

The city is right across the border from Juarez, Mexico.

The rifle, from surveillance footage, is an AK-47 copy -- almost-certainly a semi-automatic one, but being that close to Mexico, who knows.  It may well have been a very illegal fully-automatic one (which can't be sold here in the US.)  Nonetheless it's definitely an AK-pattern rifle.

There is a "manifesto" that was posted to 8chan just before the attack.  I've got it.  It specifically identifies the weapon to be used.  The odds of that being a hoax, for this reason, are low.  If the ammunition proves up (it also goes into specific detail on the rounds he intended to use, and they are not the common "ball" ammunition you would buy for that gun to shoot at the range) then the odds of that being a hoax goes to an effective zero.

Don't bet on that being disclosed, if it's true.

But cut the crap on the "gun control" nonsense.  Just over the border, a few miles away, there are more guns than you can shake a stick at -- everyone of them unregistered in America because they're in Mexico.  Juarez is an insanely violent area, and it's right there.  You want a gun and can't pass a background check here, get it there.  93% of crimes go unreported in Juarez.  Without a real wall and enforceable border, what's to stop you from bringing that gun here?  Hell, the Mexican you buy it from might have gotten it courtesy of Eric Holder, our former AG, who has never been held to account for running many guns into Mexico!

Every Demonscat on the planet has jumped on this demanding "more gun control" without even waiting for the bodies to reach room temperature.  Yeah, right.  You can blow me, lefties.  Your fantasy-land nonsense would prevent nothing.  Go look in Mexico; there is exactly one legal gun store in the entire country and it takes months to get paperwork processed to buy one.  Possession of even one firearm or one round of ammunition is good for a five year prison sentence there.

That does exactly zippo to prevent all those who want to murder from acquiring and using them in Juarez.

Since it is proved that just a few miles south the most-restrictive gun laws imaginable do exactly nothing to prevent hundreds of murders every year in that city alone no, I will not consent to any further infringement of the 2nd Amendment.  Anyone arguing for same can go **** a goat.

It gets worse.  Right here, in America.

The clearance rate (that is, the odds of getting arrested if you shoot someone) in Chicago is 9%.  In Atlanta, 12%.  In almost every other major city (Baltimore anyone?), it's roughly the same.  Yeah, if you go insane and start shooting people in a WallyWorld en-masse you're either going to jail and will get the needle or will just get shot where you stand.

But if you shoot people one at a time you have a ten percent chance of getting caught; 9 out of 10 times you get away with it.  I know people who were close with someone who got shot, the dead person was not a gang member or otherwise engaged in activity that typically gets you shot (he was an ordinary businessmanand the perpetrator has not been identified or arrested a full year later.

That is not uncommon.  In fact it's not only common it's a 90% probability if you get plugged in a major city right here, right now.

99% of the people in this nation are too stupid to hold their own dick in their hand and hit the urinal.  If they could, and that sort of statistic sunk in, the murder rate would be 100x what it is now and the clearance rate would be an effective zero.  Think about that long and hard folks -- we're one bad incident away from people waking up to the fact that right now, in virtually every major city in this country today you can walk up to someone at random, murder them, and you have a 90% chance of getting away with it.

If that doesn't force your pea-sized brain awake long enough to realize that the cops are worthless in solving crimes and their best, highest and only calling is to zip your ass into a black bag and haul it away after you get killed then you are too stupid to deserve to be able to reproduce.  There is only one way to stop that sort of crap and that is for you to stop it, personally, if someone intends to whack you or someone you love.  To do that, especially if you're not a 20 year old body-builder male, you're going to need the only equalizing force ever invented by mankind and you better know how to use it too.

It's called a gun.

How about everyone goes armed as the 2nd Amendment mandates be perfectly legal all the time, everywhere and jackwads like that don't get to shoot people for free?  Even better: How about we cut the bullcrap about mental health and our abuses of Americans, and America generally, via unbridled immigration, intentional destruction of our standard of living and debasement of our currency via unbridled and outrageous deficit spending, all of which is the responsibility of the 536 Jackasses that infest Washington DC?

What the hell do you think produces this sort of event?  You think it's not being told every day by the media and fully half the politicians in the nation that if you're of a certain race and sex that just because you are you're evil, you're a racist, you owe everyone else "reparations" for your entire life and they intend to, and do, shove a gun up your nose and make you pay under penalty of law? Meanwhile the race-hustler up the street bilks the system out of millions, another race hustler poops out children after illegally invading the nation, buys their groceries with your money and drives a $50,000, brand-new truck!  Our own Attorney General runs guns to drug gangs across the border, gets caught and laughs, while if you smoke a joint you to go to prison.  If you're fortunate enough to find a woman you like and would love to settle down with you can't because all those illegal invaders and race hustlers are in all the reasonably-affordable places to live and have turned them into drug-infested, gangland hellholes with your money; what remains are bubbled homes the two of you cannot possibly afford.  Then she gets pregnant and you discover that having that child is going to cost you a year's salaryten times what it should cost, all due to felony monopoly practices that nobody will prosecute.

Some 1% of the nation is probably bat**** crazy enough to respond to this sort of provocation laid on them from the day of their birth all the way through their life by picking up a gun and murdering 20 people.  Oh by the way, that's 3 million potential mass-shooters and if they can't get a gun they'll use a gallon of gasoline they can buy for three bucks anywhere.  Another few percent get driven to suicide. 

Everyone else turns into a ****ing zombie and buries their nose in Facesucker.

Maybe -- just maybe -- if people had a reason to hope, a reason to believe they could get ahead, and their ability to do so wasn't systematically destroyed via H1bs coming from one end and unskilled labor from the other, if we put a stop to the race-hustling and bull****, never mind stomping on all the fraud and felony that our government not only looks the other way upon they cheer as it makes the "stawk market" go up the people in this country might -- just might -- retain their sanity.

Maybe.

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Xqqme
Posts: 799
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Ohio
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How soon will the Left connect the 9 deaths in Dayton this morning to the KKK affiliated group rally at Courthouse square?
Amused
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There are a lot of people that will try to use this to advance their cause, whatever is, the gun control nuts for theirs, the white nationalists as a hero, the globalists to shame.

I think this carries an important lesson for a lot of people that seem to want a Civil War.

It is not pretty.

The honest truth is, just like the Democrat shooter at the Congressional Republican Baseball game, this is how we settle things when they are not settled with a Rule of Law.

We can either peaceful try to fix our grievances at the ballot box or we or someone else will eventually settle them with an ammo box.
Amused
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Meant to say Gun Grabbers/Anti-Gun nots, but whatever you get my point.
Wifi
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Seagrove Beach
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Will we make it to the next election/selection?

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Amused
Posts: 152
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Hell we couldn't make it twelve hours, there was a second mass shooting in Dayton.

Waiting to hear if he had a manifesto too or just wanted to get in on the Civil War.
Gonewest
Posts: 125
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PacificNW
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Anyone else find it interesting that the El Paso shooter is identified in all the news reports but the Dayton suspect, who is confirmed deceased, is not identified on any news report I can find?


Smacktle
Posts: 1952
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Texas
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I'm sad for all the people who lost their lives but I'm also sad for the future.

It looks like we are headed in a direction none of us can stop. They are coming for our guns and some of us are going to stop them.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Thelazer
Posts: 273
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Davenport, Fl
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The worst part, I have some "left" leaning folks who are just going on there normal nonsense.

Yet if you READ that manifesto he left, it's quite clear this isn't a trump thing, nor a left / right thing at all to that guy. Yet all I hear is "OH TRUMP'S FAULT" once again.

Ktrosper
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ft collins co
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thanks KD

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
Greyhound
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I never pay any mind to mass shootings, pretty much since I stopped watching the evening news 20 years ago. It like muzak now when I hear of one in the background of every day life.
As for being murdered by a random criminal, the average person not involved in criminal activity has a low likelihood of being murdered. I worked in the "most violent city" in the U.S. for 12 years and I never got a scratch. Only one of my colleagues was the victim of a random violent crime there years earlier and she didn't die. I only personally know of one person murdered and she was murdered by a jealous ex cop boyfriend. Fear is what is being sold these days but the average person has little to fear in reality objectively speaking.

Supertruckertom
Posts: 2734
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USA
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From murderdata.org

Data is derived from the FBI UCR.
Go to the clearance rate tab and use the drop down menu to select State then municipality.
Slider bar sets the date range.
Currently stops at 2017 data.

Dekalb County GA, which is the East side of Atlanta from around the CDC and Emory out to Stone Mountain and the included suburbs, for 2016 and 2017 combined.

181 Homicides
22 Clearances
12.15% rate

What is it in your location?
You will plainly see that population size and socio economic factors do make a difference.

There is a 50 percent or greater spread in clearance rates among the five counties that comprise Metropolitan Atlanta.

Where would you want to live?
Cobb County, 82.22%
Clayton Co. 41.30%
Fulton Co. 74.40%
Gwinnett. 20.00%
Dekalb Co. 12.15%

Those are the core 5 Counties of Metro Atlanta.
Henry, Douglas, Cherokee, Rockdale, Paulding, Fayette, Spaulding, Forsyth are the next layer outside of the core 5.

Cobb County used to be a Republican stronghold.
That was Newt Gingrich's old district.
It went for Hillary in 2016.

I'll check back in a few years.

Almost to El Paso.
The murder scene is visible from I-10.
Changing driver now.




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Preparing to go Hunting.
Themortgagedude
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Saint Charles MO
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Of those 10% which are solved how many were random acts of violence? I would bet i could kill one person a month randomly for the rest of my life and never get caught. Most of those convicted had a prior connection to the victim or killed more than one at a time.

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I think its time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that our founding fathers intended for us. Ronald Reagan 1964

Nevertoolate
Posts: 1673
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A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
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Article late last month on zero. Scroll down to the chart that shows the lowest rate of murder in US. Baltimore highest, Boise, Id lowest. Idaho has always had open carry, but before governor Butch Otter left office he made concealed carry without permit legal. Hmmm. Answer to the problem.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-2....

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Democracy is a conversation between 2 wolves & a sheep discussing what's for dinner. A Constitutional Republic is found when the sheep pulls out a gun & makes clear that his 2nd Amendment Right will be exercised should the wolves attempt to hold such a "vote."-KD 9-29-15
Radiosity
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Sunny UK
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Greyhound: "Fear is what is being sold these days but the average person has little to fear in reality objectively speaking."

Try telling that to your average Millennial Safe Spacer.

Also, I remember a scene in Last Action Hero where the bad guy goes to a random guy in New York, shoots him, then asks the world at large if anyone cares, receiving utter silence in response. It's played for laughs, of course... but it's not so funny when you realise that's literally reality now.
Rjazz117
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A True American Patriot!
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If 3 million people each killed one random person per day (and got away with it) we could depopulate the continent in less than a year.

Wouldn't the overpopulation crowd on the Left just LOVE that?

smiley

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Aztrader
Posts: 8399
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Scottsdale, AZ
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Curious if this kid was on SSRI's and was another video game nut. The first crap that came out was he was a Trump supporter. We have never seen one instance of a conservative pulling this BS in the past 3 years. Only the loons on the left have resorted to violence to get their point across. I pointed out several times in the past year that these shootings will increase the closer we get to the election. They are instigated for the purpose of killing off anything the conservatives deem important. The left would kill 10,000 innocent people if it won them an election. The evil has grown to a point that I am now carrying in my truck. I no longer feel that I can trust what wack job is waiting in the wings to do damage.
Ask yourself what sane person would walk into a mall with an AK and start shooting knowing he would be captured or killed. I still believe that he was one of these kids put on drugs early in his life and his brain simply never matured and of course the side effects point to violence.
Smitty
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SW Ohio
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The locals will reveal shooter identity at news conference 3PM today.

Another young man as in El Paso? Were either on-or recently on-prescribed SSRI psychotropic meds?

This shooter reportedly had muffs on too.

Too bad he was capped by a cop rather than a civie concealed carrier. Lots of cop worship on local news.

I'm curious about whether-with a panicked crowd in the background-any cop rounds may have injured and/or killed some victims...

After all, it's not rare to hear of cop events where rounds are sprayed around striking innocents.

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There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

-Soren Kierkegaard
Radiosity
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Sunny UK
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Rjazz117 - But if everyone's dead, who will the Left be able to lord their superiority over? It's not enough to scream about how much better they are, there has to be someone to hear it. That's the whole purpose of virtue signalling, after all.
Jduwaldt
Posts: 754
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Orange County, CA
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Something else that bothers me: every bullet-spraying gang member has just seen one person kill or wound 30 people in roughly one minute in Dayton, after seeing something similar in Texas. I wonder if we're going to see an uptick in competence among criminals before the year is out, just as the Ds (and Trump) push to limit the access of guns (and probably metal spoons) to law-abiding citizens.

But I shouldn't worry: Kamala Harris and Micheal Bloomberg will still have access (although in Bloomberg's case he has others carry his guns for him).

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Gun Control: because what's the fun of being in the Majority if the Minority are able to defend themselves?
Your ignorance is someone else's superpower
Greyhound
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The only people who care about you are the people who care about you. That definitely means, not "your" government, "your" congressman "your" police, "your" doctor. That's the first thing. To wail and stomp your feet does nothing to change that. They aren't "yours", you are theirs. You are their income source, their lackey, their stooge, etc.
You aren't going to make them do anything
because they don't answer to you or care anything about you. And the scary, idoitic suggest that you are going to fight them and win smacks either delusional fantasy or some agent provocateur goading going on. For a green shade numbers blog, the I'm going to git my gun and make them lose talk, just has me rolling my eyes. I'd like a numbers talk on how that would work successfully. Unlimited arms, money and men vs a couple of men with peashooters.


Jduwaldt
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Orange County, CA
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The front page of Murderrate.org has an odd story from Feb 2019: the headline claims the falling clearance rate for black crime is almost entirely responsible for the overall decline in clearance rate from 1965 to 2017. I have not read the article yet.

This is stranger to me than it first seems: Obviously black people have been here all along. I'd bet as a percentage of population it has not changed that much. Today the majority of black crime is against other blacks, has that percentage changed much over the years? If the rate of black crime against NON-blacks is actually increasing and if the System is racist, wouldn't you expect the clearance rate to increase?

Is the clearance rate decreasing because someone with the power to get these cleared wants it that way? But if most black crime is against other blacks then who is this hurting most?

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Gun Control: because what's the fun of being in the Majority if the Minority are able to defend themselves?
Your ignorance is someone else's superpower
Mangymutt
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Vancouver WA
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Last Paragraph of Ticker Reads:
Quote:
Maybe -- just maybe -- if people had a reason to hope, a reason to believe they could get ahead, and their ability to do so wasn't systematically destroyed....(Fill in your own)


Far too many of us have been lead to believe "The State" has our best interest, that if we just believe in them our lives will be better, and we hope that, that belief will make our lives better. We believe public schools will educate our children, but far too many of us are a product of that same education, so why do we hope it will be an improvement for our children? Far too many of us believe politicians will save us from the evils of this world, yet every year in order to protect us from ourselves more restrictive laws are passed on our freedoms and our hopes. You want a good paying job? Take 5+ years of your life and a few 10k's and become head barista at your local coffee shop. You want to retire in style, plow all your money into a 401k and let the money changers tell you when and how you can spend it. Life dictates you need to take a shortcut while driving, you get pulled over and a $500 ticket as a drug deal goes on across the street from the "police" Where is your hope in any of this?

Marriage...Meh...That is my personal opinion. But marriage is an important part of society, in family formation, in the raising of our youth, in the being of a foundation for unity. The man should rely on the woman for certain things and the women should be expected to give to the man things that make him stronger, better, more capable. What do people have to look forward to, to hope for with marriage today? 20K on a wedding? YEA! Having kids that both parents can have taken away by the school system? Or the mother using the kids as a weapon to keep the father in line. How many people today have hopes that through hard work and dedication marriage will bring them a decent future?

If you hope to be the best, you hang out with best, Karl is not going to be his best at running by hanging out at the doughnut shop. TheMorgageDude is not going to be at the top of his game by hanging out with skateboarders. Hanging out with people with similar interests certainly will not make either "The Best" by magic, they have to work and the closer they get to being The Best, the closer someone will be on their heals chasing down that title.

When you have an army of youths (It is way more than just the youths, though) that have listen to the schools far too long and they sit around with their only hope being enuff residual THC residue left in the bong for one more hit. Well they don't have much hope left. You hang out with others, or even worse, by yourself, with no hope, your ability to plan for a future is diminished and your hopes for someone else - Mostly the State - offering a solutions increased.

Quote:
Maybe -- just maybe -- if people had a reason to hope, a reason to believe they could get ahead, and their ability to do so wasn't systematically destroyed via..... (File you your own blank)


And that is what today's people has sold their vote for, sold their freedoms for and sold theirs and children's hopes for.




Stee_man
Posts: 144
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First of all, thank you Karl. I cut cable and tuned out the fake news a decade ago. Wouldn't even know about this without sites like this.

If the left can use this for political gain, so can the right. I hope Trump gets fed up and puts 20k troops on the border NOW. If he can't get wall funding, he can certainly close the border that way. Or he can use the legal precedents Lincoln set and jail seditious congressmen under cover of a national emergency. I'm quite sure the leftists will try that to negate the 2nd ammendment next time they have the white house. Some have said so openly.
Amused
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Why is that as soon as Liberals come out of the woodwork blaming guns, Conservative brains shut off and they start blaming videogames...

His manifesto made his motivations clear. Just like Ted Kaczynski or the Democrat baseball shooter, these people have made clear their reasons, and they have **** all to do with videogames or the fact that we have a gun culture and everything to do with their ideology, right or wrong.
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