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2019-07-10 14:05 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 83 references Ignore this thread
Spinny Thing
[Comments enabled]

Heads up!

The little spinny thing out in the Gulf right now is near-certain to miss me, and at present doesn't look impressive at all.

Be careful rather than complacent, especially from roughly Louisiana to Galveston.

There has been very little cloud cover and precipitation this year in the Northern Gulf, and the usual August "nasty" heat level that we get here showed up in June, with the last couple of weeks of anomalously hot weather.  This has added to the oceanic heat content in the Gulf and hurricanes are heat engines; they redistribute that heat into the upper atmosphere and, as they track northward, into the northern latitudes.

This storm is also forecast to track west, which is unusual.

The most-probable outcome is a tropical storm, which is nothing serious except for the flooding rain potential.  It does not appear that a steering-current collapse is likely, which is what causes these storms to come inland and sit, producing ridiculous amounts of rainfall -- although that risk cannot be entirely ruled out.

We've been quite dry here until the last 2-3 weeks or so this spring; IMHO a good soaking around here would be welcome.

There is an outside chance -- which I currently put at about 10% -- that instead of a nice soaking rain somewhere from Louisiana to Galveston instead gets hit in the face with a Cat 3 aound Friday or Saturday.  Again, it's not likely but by the time it looks likely you're probably going to have to 24 hours if you're lucky to deal with it.  The good news is that simply due to the lack of time while the storm could spin up and be quite powerful if you get it in the face it's also likely to be quite small in diameter as it won't have time for the windfield to expand outward before it comes inland.  In addition satellite imagery shows dry air on both the north-east and south-west "squeezing" the moist area at present; NHC thinks this is going to relax and allow a very good outflow pattern to develop; I don't see that now but if it does happen that would support quite rapid intensification.

Right now the models are jumping around a lot on the initialization -- they simply don't have enough data to be "good."  That will change rapidly; NOAA has an aircraft up right now sampling, and since we're this close to land they'll be doing a lot of those runs and updating the data sets that go into these models on a short-time basis; as a result the forecasts should rapidly improve.

Just be aware that the possibility exists of a nasty "surprise!" sort of storm if you're in that area over the next few days.

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Maynard
Posts: 1251
Incept: 2007-11-27

gig harbor wa
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Been following this weird system. Best case is some areas are going to get 15-20" of rain. Worst case is what you outlined plus the rain. If I was in LA I would start getting ready.
Tickerguy
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A True American Patriot!
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We've had a VERY odd weather pattern here the last couple of weeks which has gone into the setup for this. This year so far we've had Saharan Dust that has kept anything from spinning up in the Atlantic; it severely suppresses convection formation. That, in turn however, means the water and land are both hotter than normal since precip evaporation cools both.

The last 2-3 weeks we've had very high gradients out of the SW in the afternoons and evenings, which means strong winds. The counter to this is that the usual afternoon pop-up thunderstorms have been coming out of the NORTH, which is NOT usual; they usually come out of the south and track north. Some of them have been pretty impressive little cells too with more than a few of them well into "severe" category. The genesis for this was that low that has now tracked into the gulf.

Rotation is already getting going on the long-range radar here; I saw the start of it yesterday morning, and it's clearly visible now. Convection still hasn't organized well at all but I suspect over the next 24 hours that's going to change quite-materially.

The key to this thing is really the dry air on the NE and SW sides. If that backs off then all the elements are there for VERY rapid intensification. If not then rotation or not it won't be able to get organized and it'll just be somewhat sloppy and windy, but of no real impact.

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Winding it down.
Maynard
Posts: 1251
Incept: 2007-11-27

gig harbor wa
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Yeah, look at this thing spin up. We shall see if Barry gets going.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/se....
Wifi
Posts: 1470
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
Online
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Keep track of spinny thing in the Gulf https://www.ventusky.com/

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Asimov
Posts: 111484
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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I still like https://spaghettimodels.com/ for hurricane stuff.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Maynard
Posts: 1251
Incept: 2007-11-27

gig harbor wa
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Yeah, like always liked the spaghettimodels site. The one Wifi posted is fun. Just talked to a bud outside of NO. Said they already have a **** ton of rain.
Tickerguy
Posts: 157993
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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UPDATE:

The likely track has shifted EAST materially, perhaps as far as the AL/MS line for the right quadrant of the most-serious part of the storm. Odds are this is no worse than a Cat 1, which is good. Wind damage is likely to not be an issue so long as you don't live in a shack, and while there may be some surge it's not likely to amount to much.

The VERY BAD, however, is that the steering environment looks MUCH weaker than it did yesterday. This means the odds of the system coming in very slowly and dumping INSANE amounts of ran -- 20+ inches in some places -- has gone up a LOT.

In particular the area from roughly 50nm west of New Orleans to the AL/MS line inland ~50 miles or so, looks to have a disturbingly high probability of getting wide-area SERIOUS rainfall amounts, with some areas within that zone getting amounts of rain over TWO FEET. The threat of more than a foot of rain could stretch inland by well more than 100 miles from the coast. THIS IS VERY BAD NEWS IF IT VERIFIES AND YOU'RE IN AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALLS.

I didn't think this was particularly high-probability yesterday, but with the track and steering current shift it looks increasingly likely.

If you live in this area BE PREPARED as once it starts, IF it does, you are almost-certainly going to be cut off from being able to leave.

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Winding it down.

Maynard
Posts: 1251
Incept: 2007-11-27

gig harbor wa
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Yeah, not good as soon as I saw Harvey forcast I told my people in houston to GTFO. This is close, especially for NO.
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