Iran, Nukes And More: Meh
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2019-07-07 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in International , 93 references Ignore this thread
Iran, Nukes And More: Meh
[Comments enabled]

Oh give me a break....

Iran revealed the "deep flaws" in its nuclear deal with the United States when it threatened to further enrich uranium as a response to heightened sanctions, James Carafano, a scholar at the Heritage Foundation, argued on Friday.

"One of the ultimate sins of the Iran deal was we let them have enrichment," Carafano said while appearing on "America's News HQ."

Let them have?

Exactly why is the United States empowered to tell a nation what it can and cannot do within its own borders?

I know, I know, non-proliferation.  Uh huh.  Ok.  Whatever.  Like we've never worked on and come up with really nasty weapons.  You know, weapons of mass destruction?  Oh wait -- we have.  So have others.  What makes one "more equal" than the other?

In the end it all comes down to the same premise: I have lots of bombs, missiles and other assorted means of blowing you to Mars, so do what I say or I'll use them.

Now wait a second -- isn't the point that the other guy is making weapons?

So to this we will...... blow him up?  With....... dog kisses?

Don't get me wrong; I have no particular love for atom bombs, but that ship has sailed and the genie is out of the bottle; it's not going back into the bottle either, no matter what we do.  I get it that Iran is full of some not-nice people in their government but so is China, and indeed when it comes to repression and insanity -- aka Hong Kong and Taiwan anyone, never mind their mass-imprisonment of "dissidents" -- just on the sheer numbers China is way ahead of all the other guys.

Oh, and they have nukes.  Lots of them.  Very accurate ones too, courtesy of one Mr. Clinton and the deal he let them have that essentially gave them advanced targeting radar capability.

Would they have figured it out eventually?  Sure, about 20 years later.  But a 20 year jump ahead is not a small matter at all, is it?  Well, it appears so because we're still arguing over whether despite hard evidence that Huawei is chock-full of PLA people, including people known to be part of the "break into anything commercial in the US and steal it all", they're "a threat" or not.  Hoh hoh hoh...... slanty-eye gets left alone and has "favored" trade status despite ripping off anything not nailed down, torture and murder while Ayatollah, not so much.

Do I think Iran is a threat?  Probably, especially in the Middle East.  Should we care about their threat to our energy supplies?  No.  They're not a threat to said energy supplies; we're fine.  As for those who are threatened, well, that's their problem for getting involved with a bunch of nutjobs who think throwing gays off buildings is acceptable behavior.

Then again many of those so-called "dependent nations" aren't much better when it comes to human rights, especially if we're talking about China!

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Tsherry
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I feel like we're approaching the end of the American Empire faster than anyone realizes. Emperor's clothes and all that. The arrogance of this nation, telling the rest of the world what to do, how to be, what they can and cannot do, is one day soon going to result in a giant middle finger, and there's not a damned thing we can do about it.

A study of what happened with other nations as they fell from Empire might be worthy in advance of the coming Troubles.

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Tickerguy
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@Tsherry - America is allergic to casualties and they know it.

One sunk carrier and half its complement (5,000 people, more or less) going to the bottom of the ocean and we'll tuck our tail between our legs and run.

We're all for war right up until people start getting killed.

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Winding it down.

Whitehat
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perhaps you are looking at it from a different angle, but this country often reacts to mass casualty events by going nuts for war. WWI, WWII, 911 amongst less noteworthy yet similar events. additionally, mass war casualty events tend to further our resolve to fight. it is only when war drags on without end or measurable change that we grow tired. opponents know this and do everything possible to get us into such situations. for these situations weapons of mass destruction are the most effective, however we cannot justify their use and live with a resident enemy using guerrilla tactics.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
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Gollum
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Sadly weve become a nation of bullies and cowards.....
Tickerguy
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@Whitehat -- those were all spun as UNPROVOKED attacks. The Lusitania, of course, was anything but -- it was FULL of munitions, as was proved a hundred years later, but at the time "those bastards torpedoed a boat full of women and kids!"

Pearl was of course a military target, but again, it was spun as "unprovoked."

THIS would be a different matter; Iran sinking a carrier, or even a dreadnought, when we've already made clear that "it's our way or the highway" is going to fool nobody.

It certainly won't fool me.

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Radiosity
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TSherry "A study of what happened with other nations as they fell from Empire might be worthy in advance of the coming Troubles."

Stefan Molyneux already did. Search YT for Rome Modern Parallels.
Whitehat
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yes, i see your point. it will put us in a position of put up or shut up. in the past in similar situations we have done the latter.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; God is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
Tickerguy
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@Whitehat -- Incidentally, do not underestimate Iran's capability to really **** with things if they want to. They have a decent cachet of high-quality surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, and an utterly NUTS number of unguided rockets.

The latter (think Scuds, roughly) are not impressive in terms of accuracy but they don't have to be. How much fun are you having when the air raid sirens are going off every 15 minutes? Never mind that you have to intercept them all because you don't know which one is accurate enough to hit you -- but you don't have anywhere near the number of intercepting missiles and such to do that. Quite quickly you wind up using CIWS and similar only, lest you run out of half-million dollar interceptor missiles!

And then it just takes ONE that's "good enough" and goes down your stack.

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Fumei
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Karl, you left out that the Iranians could also shoot anti-ship missiles at oil tankers, which have no intercepting missiles, no CIWS, and no crews who want to fight, as they shoot anti-ship missiles at USN vessels. Even if the USN vessels stay afloat, the world economy may not.
Tickerguy
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It only takes ONE tanker that gets sunk and insurance becomes instantly unobtainium for any ship in that part of the world.

They don't have to sink them all, or even block the straight.

They only have to sink ONE.

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Mangymutt
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There is a time to fight and a time to bravely run away.

There have been many a'Ticker where one side (The side with "The People") have been scolded for not directly challenging the other side (The side with "Them"). And it can be very difficult to determine when one should step in, if so, how far and when to sit back and watch things unfold.

Where I grew up, disputes tended to be solved with violence rather than "The just-us system" so my mindset may be different than what "They" want it to be. The race of the people in these following stories means nothing, as they are human, have human feelings, human beliefs and human nature. At the same time it means everything, as their cultural/religious beliefs, customs and history matters deeply to them and how they live their lives.

One day years past, I was on a walk minding my own business, when around a corner comes a Native American (Indian) kid huffing and puffing in a big hurry. He is being chased by a car with 4 occupants (Also Native). The running kid, darts up what he thinks is an alley and potential escape, only to be offered a dead end. One of the guys in car gets out runs up to running kid and hits him in the head and continues to punch him until he falls on the ground, punching man now turns into kicking man and running kid is now fetal position kid. This whole thing unfolds in about 10ish seconds on the side of the street, in the direction I was heading of the street I was walking down.

I have no clue what fetal position kids sins were, I have no clue how much retribution kicking man intended to give and my options were rather limited, I was going to walk past this event. With the car and the 3 occupants still in front of me, the kicking to my left and plenty of distance (perhaps 20 yards) between me and potential escape I yelled at kicking man - "Hey he is down, you won!" Kicking man loses interest in his victim, looks up at me, looks down and the kid, kind of shrugs his shoulders and walks back to the car and off they drive.

A couple years before that, I was walking down a different street with the kid sister of my girlfriend at the time. We come upon a car with a female driver and a man passenger. They were yelling and as we approached the words became more harsh and so did the physical contact by the time we were passing in front of the car, the man was leaned over the woman punching her. I waited unto we were about 5 ish yards past the car, had my self between my female friend and the car turned around and yelled at punching man. Immediately he stops his assault on the woman and yells at me as he starts to exit the car, the woman also starts yelling and cursing at me. I look over my shoulder making sure my young friend is ready to move and back down the road, leaving the two love birds with their foreplay.

America/Americans have cultural beliefs that confuse even us and are contradictory to other believes we say we hold. The Middle East has both weird and wonderful cultural beliefs that predates America's by, thousands of years. At what point do we get to tell them our way is better than theirs?

Would I have stepped in against a much larger (4 vs 1) group in to help defend a kid having the boot put to him. Perhaps.

Would I have stepped in against equal odds against a man beating a woman. Not when she is a bitch willing to take his side against me.

What is it the U.S. is trying to achieve by meddling with Iraq? Besides big oil and defense contracts, does it help a single American? Do the Iraqese or any other Middle Easterner really want us there?

So to weigh in on whithat, Tsherry and Karls above discussion.

American's are by and far naive and unwilling to pursue the truth enuff to listen to the first attack (whether false flag or real) and rally around "Go Team" but will back away when they realize the blood being shed is for profit of business.

If the people of Iraq do not like what is going on it is their business to fix it, not ours.
Stee_man
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I have a different take on this. The US can just stand back and starve an enemy inside it's own borders. A modern day siege, with planes flying around preventing much in the way of supplies getting in or out. Cut off from international banking and trade, except for smuggling. The examples are north korea, cuba and iran with the sanctions in place.

There's no need to put viet nam level troops at risk. Just keep them poor and backwards, while the rest of the world lives their lives separately.

I'm no military analyst, but can a carrier really be sunk by one lucky missile? Those ships are huge, and I'm wondering if one hole is enough. They are also surrounded by protective vessels and constant air cover. It's hard to get close to them. In an actual war situation I imagine they'd stand back at air-only range.
Tickerguy
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@Stee_man -
Quote:
I'm no military analyst, but can a carrier really be sunk by one lucky missile?

Oh hell yes.

Timing is everything; get it when they're arming planes and it's big trouble.

As for "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon" -- I bet they do right now. A crude couple of them, but they still go boom, and you don't need precision delivery with one of those ****ers. Would they do it? That depends -- how desperate are they?

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Stee_man
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An under water nuclear detonation would take out an entire fleet via tsunami. The Russians have tested this. So if they have a nuke, any kind of submersible ship could be a game changer.
Gollum
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Whatever wasnt outright sunk would be rendered unusable. Read about the Bikini Atoll tests sometime its very interesting. I concur that Iran already has a couple of live warheads. Theyve had a close relationship with North Korea for a couple of decades and had oil and cash to trade for said nukes.
Elkad
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You don't even need the tsunami. The bubble in the water breaks the spine of every ship over it.
Whitehat
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in some circles it is said that Iran needs and wants a war due to its own internal issues. there are a lot of disenfranchised men approaching early middle age. the strategy that the Iranians fear most is us simply abandoning the area as they will not start hostilities with anyone else. left to their own devices, they will slowly degenerate to internal strife over the next ten years.

BTW: the comments section on your most recent article is disabled.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; God is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
Lenguado
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Quote:
It only takes ONE tanker that gets sunk and insurance becomes instantly unobtainium for any ship in that part of the world.

They don't have to sink them all, or even block the straight.

They only have to sink ONE.

But then they'll have he EnvironMENTALists coming after them - and in that case, Allah help them!

(That's only partial /sarc)

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"War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself." --Unknown

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." - President John F. Kennedy
Ahhz
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Lenguado wrote..
But then they'll have he EnvironMENTALists coming after them - and in that case, Allah help them!


Now that is a war I wouldn't mind seeing. The higher the casualty count the more the rest of the world "wins"


Tickerguy
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I find it amusing that the usual doomsayers are claiming we'd have $300 oil if Iran follows through.

Uh, well, maybe for Brent. But not WTI. America has no need for imports today, and a higher global price won't filter over here by more than a few bucks. It might shove our price up around $65-70 but that's all, because that's the break-even on the fracking wells that are currently producing.

Now if you happen to be China, which has no good alternative to oil coming through the Straits of Hormuz, on the other hand, well, Mr. Slanty-eye may well be rat****ed; I bet HE gets charged the $300 and won't like it one bit.

I'd love to see that sort of split and will tip a glass if it happens.

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Winding it down.
Whitehat
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yea, maybe then China will go back to wanting ALL of our discarded plastic as lots of it was industrial fuel not burned in a particularly pristine fashion. in fact, the bastards will burn just about anything and rat **** the environment without a care. this is why their long term plans are nuclear of any form.

a tremendous amount of world air pollution comes from China and affects weather patterns.

once they have more electrical generation capacity, two things will happen. the FischerTropsch process will solve liquid fuels for them. then they will become very militant as they will achieve energy independence and have lots of nuclear weapons fuels.

we have and continue to pay them to build out this nightmare. the word treason comes to mind.

enjoy your cheap consumer goods.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; God is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
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